Announcing the Chezy Champs Ranking Projection Contest! I’ve previously made threads where I just put up my own ranking projections for events, but I thought this could be much more fun. Although I would love it if people submitted a full probability distribution for each team, that seems a touch unreasonable, so I’m going to instead look at each team’s average predicted rank (although if you do have a full probability distribution I’d love to see it). What I like about average rank is that it allows a way to quantify uncertainty. If you think two teams will seed about equally well, that’s fine, just give them the same predicted rank. If you don’t like dealing with uncertainty, just submit a list of teams from best to worst with predicted ranks 1 to 44. The winner of this contest will receive a $30 AndyMark gift card from me. I’ll be entering as well, so if no one beats me I save $30. #rigged
**How to submit: **
- Go to this link
- Click on File->Make a Copy…
- Change the name of the file to be “[Your Name or Username]’s CC Predictions” (e.g. “Bob’s CC Predictions”)
- Edit the values in the last column as you see fit
- In the top-right corner click SHARE -> Get shareable link
- Paste the link into a post on this thread.
• You can make changes to your sheet as frequently as you want, I’m going to wait until 9/27 to copy all predictions, so just make sure your final predictions are done by then. So if you want to take a first pass and share the link but then update later that’s cool.
• The winner must reply to my PM to them asking for contact info within one week of the completion of Chezy Champs, otherwise the award is forfeited.
• Submission deadline is Thursday 9/26 at 11:59PM central time.
• I reserve the right to remove any submission for any reason (e.g. if I find out you are throwing matches to improve your predictions).
• I reserve the right to edit or add any rules at any time.
After qual matches are completed at Chezy Champs, I’ll take the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of each submission compared to the actual rankings. The lowest RMSE is the winner. For example, here is a sheet showing how I would have calculated the RMSE for my pre-event IRI projections. If you are missing a team from the submission, I will use a predicted rank of 0 for them. If you have an additional team that doesn’t end up competing, they will be ignored in the score.
**Where to view results: **
I’ll leave an open spreadsheet here since the open spreadsheet for the Detroit Prediction Contest worked so well. Feel free to make cool graphs/analysis and add in new submissions as they come in (note this is not official though, you must submit using the above method). If people abuse the editing power I’ll restrict access to people I trust. I’ll have a separate private sheet I’ll use for the official evaluation.
Well, have at it. Keep in mind the team list could still change, so keep an eye on that if you submit early. I’m really interested in how people derive their predictions, so while not a rule, I personally would appreciate if you explained your reasoning/process in your submission, and if you were building off of someone else’s work or starting from scratch.