Chezy Champs Ranking Projection Contest

Alright, predictions are now locked. I’ve made a copy of the sheet to use for the scoring. Here are some highlights:

Average of all predictions:

Team	Average
254	3.3
1678	4.6
1323	5.4
3309	8.2
3310	9.7
3476	10.6
842	11.4
2471	12.0
971	12.1
2557	14.9
3512	15.1
4911	15.5
4488	16.3
973	17.5
2910	17.7
1538	17.8
3478	17.8
5818	18.7
846	19.4
3538	19.7
2046	20.1
3250	21.0
687	22.2
1983	24.5
604	25.5
5803	25.5
5012	26.0
968	27.2
3647	27.2
4388	28.5
2990	28.8
4159	29.0
649	29.5
5026	29.8
4183	30.7
115	31.0
2659	31.3
1072	31.7
8	32.7
696	34.2
5924	34.5
5499	36.8

Biggest discrepancies between predictions:

Team	min	mean	max	stdev
3478	7.1	17.8	38.0	11.9
4183	8.8	30.7	41.7	10.8
3647	9.0	27.2	41.2	10.4
2910	9.6	17.7	37.0	9.7
2046	6.4	20.1	35.2	9.1
1983	10.0	24.5	37.3	8.9
604	12.0	25.5	39.7	8.8
1538	8.0	17.8	33.0	8.7
5026	14.6	29.8	42.0	8.2
3538	9.0	19.7	31.9	8.1
5012	18.1	26.0	40.3	7.9
115	19.5	31.0	41.8	7.9
3512	5.3	15.1	28.0	7.6
1072	20.7	31.7	39.6	7.2
5803	16.9	25.5	36.0	7.2
649	18.2	29.5	38.2	7.0
4388	21.0	28.5	41.5	6.4
2659	24.3	31.3	40.0	6.3
2557	6.3	14.9	20.2	6.1
4911	5.6	15.5	21.8	6.1
8	25.6	32.7	42.0	5.9
696	25.0	34.2	42.0	5.8
5924	29.3	34.5	42.6	5.6
846	11.3	19.4	26.4	5.5
842	4.0	11.4	18.6	5.4
2471	2.0	12.0	18.3	5.2
3310	1.9	9.7	15.4	5.0
3476	4.4	10.6	16.4	4.9
5818	12.2	18.7	23.9	4.8
971	6.0	12.1	17.1	4.8
973	10.1	17.5	23.5	4.7
3309	3.0	8.2	15.4	4.7
3250	14.0	21.0	26.4	4.1
687	17.0	22.2	28.3	3.8
2990	24.3	28.8	36.3	3.8
4488	11.4	16.3	21.0	3.8
5499	32.0	36.8	41.0	3.5
4159	24.0	29.0	33.8	3.5
968	23.5	27.2	31.3	3.1
1678	1.8	4.6	8.3	2.6
1323	2.4	5.4	9.8	2.5
254	1.0	3.3	7.2	2.2

Good luck everyone! We’ll see how it goes.

Here are the RMSE values as of the end of Saturday using current ranks:

Ian has the lead at 9.1, and I’m close behind at 9.5.

Here are the current average projected ranks using my simulator:

Team	average rank
1678	1.0
3512	2.8
3310	3.1
4911	4.2
2046	7.7
971	7.9
254	8.1
2471	9.2
973	9.4
3478	10.6
2910	11.7
5803	12.8
846	14.4
968	15.7
2557	16.6
687	16.9
1323	17.7
4488	17.7
842	19.3
696	19.4
1072	20.9
5818	21.0
649	22.5
3309	22.6
1983	22.7
4388	24.7
3476	25.2
2990	25.9
8	28.5
5924	29.4
2659	31.8
5499	33.0
3538	33.1
5012	33.4
3250	35.2
1538	35.3
604	35.6
5026	37.2
3647	37.8
4159	39.8
4183	39.8
115	41.9

Using those instead of the current ranks gives me an ever-so-slight edge over Ian, but we’ll have to see since it’s not really fair to evaluate with my simulator when I built my projections with the same tool.

Yes we will see :o . Good luck and thanks for the opportunity it’s been fun.

Tentative final scores:

Congrats to Ian H with an RMSE of 8.8!

Let me know if you see any errors, I’ll double check everything in the next day or two, but I doubt anything is going to change. Ian, if everything checks out I’ll PM you and we can work out getting you the giftcard.

Thanks everyone for competing! I had a lot of fun keeping an eye on this. Unsure if I’ll do this in the future, but if you have any feedback about what could be improved I’d love to hear it.

Well, everything looks good from my side, and no one else has spoken up about errors, so I’d like to formally congratulate Ian H. for winning this contest! Ian, I’ve just sent you a PM, you have until the end of the week to respond otherwise you forfeit your prize.