I’ve gotten a lot of questions on how I’ve achieved up to 90% accuracy in my match predictions so here’s a comprehensive breakdown of how I did it.
Here’s my analysis that I pulled OPR from (marked as EPC) for predictions.
I took an evening and put together this Google Sheet with summations and a few other bells and whistles.
This is all from DCMP and is broken down by day. Overall, including playoffs, my system was only 73% accurate.
Thursday, I pulled my data from the mastersheet from the other competitions this season, it wasn’t great. The point margins between expected and actual were in the teens and twenties. Not great at only 73% accurate.
Friday, I pulled solely from data that had been collected from Thursday, the most recent and accurate data that I had. I was on the side of the field, checking everything in real time! 76% accurate.
Saturday, the qualifiers went almost exactly as expected. Only 3 matches were predicted incorrectly. 90.5% accuracy.
Playoffs, semis and finals are hard to predict with my system and I recognize that, with 72% accuracy. The main, obvious flaws are lack of accountability for compatibility between teams, using solely OPR (which, for off season comps, we have found a way to quantify defense and add it to the formulas) and how points for climb are calculated, because not every alliance can double climb.
I’d love any ideas or criticism people. If you’re from CHS and want to learn how your team could join the collective, please email me at email@example.com