CHS Platter - Week Four - Cheesy Centers

FIRST General Forum
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CHS Platter

Week Three Review: A lack of high goals and defense was still the theme during qualification matches for Week 3, with the focus on breaching for those precious Ranking Points. Each event ran different strategies with more teams focusing on the high goal at CHS NMD and CHS HR focusing on the low goal. This resulted in CHS HR grabbing 40% more captures than CHS NMD, giving CHS NMD higher average scores but CHS HR larger win margins.

Teams that previously competed used the experience to their advantage and on average ranked higher than the inexperienced teams, though six rookie teams were picked for playoff alliances in Hampton Roads (shout-out to 5724, 6194, 5950, 6189, 5804, and 5954). Neither #1 Seed won in Week 3, again proving that the district format brings new challenges to our region.

CHS Platter - Week Four - Cheesy Centers

Week Four of the FIRST Chesapeake District brings us to Central Virginia (Doswell) and Central Maryland (Edgewater). Unlike in previous weeks, these events are both full to capacity with teams who for the most part have already competed at least once. Teams are going to use the experience they’ve gained to take this game to the next level, this is when the game gets gouda.

In the 5 previous events, CHS playoff alliances have reached the Finals from every position except 7th and 8th seeds. Since the CHS CMD event has a very heavy top end, if there is a major upset expect it to happen in Maryland.

This final week of CHS district competition will determine who gets invited to the District Championship and who will watch from home. The CHS Platter is predicting that teams will need 54 points to qualify for The Big CHS in two weeks (more information on this will follow in another post).

Extra Sharp Prediction: Captures in the qualifications will double last week’s numbers (9 total). We predict at least 20 qualification match captures across the two events this weekend.

Central Virginia

Number of Registered Teams: 40
Event page: https://www.firstchesapeake.org/events/district-events/central-va
Event stream: http://livestream.com/LeeHartman/centralvaevent
TBA page: http://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016vados

The Favorites:
122: Celebrating their first win in 10 years of competition, the NASA Knights have returned to power with a robot to match their heroic reputation. They ran away with the show as the best high goal shooter last week in Portsmouth, but they’ll have to compete a little harder for the spotlight in Doswell.
401: Another powerful high goal shooter, 401 had some issues tipping over in Blacksburg. If they can cross the defenses safely, this recently rebranded Copperhead Robotics team will get another top 10 ranking and come home with some silver or gold hardware.
1086: Blue CHS walked away from their first event with a win and a DCA. With a focus on breaching defenses they will continue to rank high now that their technique is aged to perfection. Although CHS Platter appreciates their fondue-inspired catapult design, these whiz kids will need to get their high goal shooter cooking to score those extra points in the playoff rounds.
5279: The 1st seed at Blacksburg will have some competition in Doswell. Two of the teams they lost to in the semi-finals are also in our favorites this week. The Bionic Eagles will still soar to the top of the rankings with their insanely consistent breaching bot.

Others to watch for:
977: Once thought to be lost for good, this team was just away on a highly elliptical orbit. Last seen in 2010, the “rookie” CometBots made their reappearance in a big way in Blacksburg, seeding 14th and ending their run as the event finalists. In their next pass they’ll be looking for a win.
5546: One of the most consistent scaling robots that we’ve seen, A.R.T. led the #3 alliance to a win last week in Portsmouth with 122 and 5804. They focus on damaging defenses and scaling rather than scoring boulders which could prove detrimental at this event with more high goal shooters.
5804: Torch came out of the gate on fire. How this rookie team was available when the #3 alliance made their 2nd pick is mind boggling. With some work on the shooter D-Day will continue to devastate the competition.

Central Maryland

Number of Registered Teams: 40
Event page: https://www.firstchesapeake.org/events/district-events/central-md
Event stream: http://livestream.com/LeeHartman/centralMDevent
TBA page: http://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016mdedg

The Favorites:
623: Winning the Cheesapeake Regional in 2014 has these Cougars on the prowl for more cheddar. They won DC in 2015 and led the #4 alliance to the semi-finals in week 1. With a lot of time to tweak their robot expect 623 to challenge for a top spot yet again.
836: With one of the fastest low goal cycle times on top of a reliable low goal autonomous, look for the Robobees to continue building off of their DC performance. An 836 and 1629 pairing could be the alliance to beat in the playoffs.
888: Competing in their 3rd district event and gaining no points, the Robotiators will go all out to improve on their two semi-final showings this year. This allows them to focus on getting their robot working exactly the way they want and ignoring event results.
1629: Gets our endorsement for the Chairman’s Award. GaCo’s scaling mechanism was abandoned early in qualifications at the Northern Virginia Event, yet they’ve had quite a while to improve upon it. If they can dial in the ballistic arc of their reliable and simple high goal shooter, look for this Colby Jack of all trades to shine in Central Maryland.

Others to watch for:
612: Chantilly Robotics was a solid breaching robot in Week 1, and their Quarter Finals exit was only by the slimmest of margins. Look for Chantilly to improve upon their ball handling skills as they enter their second event.
4505: With a breaching robot that can also low goal, the Eagles will attempt to reach semis after being barely eliminated from quarters at NoVa. They may also improve on their low goal accuracy and fit more goals into a match.
5830: This rookie team had a great bot that just failed to perform up to its potential until the last 1 or 2 matches at D.C and by then it was too late for them to see any elimination round hope. However at this event they will be looking to surprise some people and could fall late into the draft with that high number scaring people off.

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District Championship Points Predictions

CHS Platter has determined with a high degree of certainty that 54 points is the likely minimum to be invited to the District Championship. 58 slots are available, with 7 going to District Chairman’s teams.

Pre-Qualified teams based on DCA:
116 - Epsilon Delta
1086 - Blue Cheese
1885 - ILITE Robotics
2363 - Triple Helix
4945 - Titanium-Wrecks

Predicted DCA teams:
Central MD: 1629 - Garrett Coalition (GaCo)
Central VA: 384 - Sparky 384

Methodologies:
This leaves 51 points-based positions up for grabs. Many teams have already hit this mark. But many teams will qualify based on the performances from this weekend.

We’ve created and tested three models of the CHS District points structure, with all calculations producing very close results.

  1. We awarded a flat number of district ranking points to teams that have not yet played their second event. The number of points is chosen to be approximately equal to the average amount of points scored by all district teams in their first event. This straightforward simulation predicts the DCMP point cutoff will be approximately 53 points.
  2. Similar to model 1, but we awarded a variable number of district ranking points to teams that have not yet played their second event. The shape of the point distribution was averaged from the outcomes of the previous 5 CHS events. We assigned points to teams based on a random guess about their performance in week 4 events. This simulation predicts cutoff at approximately 54 points.
  3. Similar to model 2, but we assigned these points to the week 4 teams based on CHS Platter predictions about how these teams will perform. CHS Platter predictions are informed by a rich mixture of numerical and subjective data gathered over the previous 3 weeks of competition. This simulation predicts cutoff at approximately 55 points.

Predicted to qualify:


Current Points	Team
47		623 - Cougar Robotics
53		5279 - Bionic Eagles
35		401 - Copperhead Robotics
48		1389 - The Body Electric
40		422 - Mech Tech Dragons
35		612 - Chantilly Robotics
41		1137 - Rocket Sauce
31		2528 - RoboDoves
38		339 - Kilroy Robotics
32		4505 - McDonogh Eagle Robotics
40		977 - Cometbots
30		2199 - Robo-Lions
14		3939 - Robotic Knights
30		2912 - Panthers
32		5936 - TigerBots

On the bubble:


Current Points	Team
25		2028 - Phantom Mentalist
17		2914 - TIGER PRIDE
26		2377 - C Company
39		2421 - RTR Team Robotics
26		1829 - Carbonauts
25		540 - TALON 540 Godwin Robotics
54		1895 - Lambda Corps
54		5841 - The Patriots
53		5954 - Portable Chargers
34		4514 - Calvert STEAM Works
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1086: Blue CHS walked away from their first event with a win and a DCA. With a focus on breaching defenses they will continue to rank high now that their technique is aged to perfection. Although CHS Platter appreciates their fondue-inspired catapult design, these whiz kids will need to get their high goal shooter cooking to score those extra points in the playoff rounds.

sniff the puns… Beautiful sniff

4

I ran a similar analysis yesterday and came to the same conclusion. Figuring 52 - 55 would be the point range needed to qualify. It really depends on how the final point values get grouped up in that range. Lastly, it also depends on how many teams decline to move on to District Champs. I’ve already spoken to some teams on the bubble who don’t know if they would be able to get the additional funding for the registration and travel costs. I could see teams at around 50 district points ultimately getting an invite.

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I’m interested to see what changes and improvements teams have done since their first competitions. I’ve heard some rumblings of new hanging mechanisms.

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It is a pleasure to get mentioned in these posts!! Team 1629 is ready to take on the competition with new and old friends!! Good luck this weekend!

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So interested into seeing how these last 2 district events play out. I bet teams are going to be scaling the tower more this week trying to gain a spot into the District Championship. We almost had our climber operational during the elimination rounds but ultimately ended up running out of time. Hope to have it up at running at the District Championship if we make it .

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38 teams are registered to be at VADOS, as far as I can tell 16 of the 38 teams have not played in elimination rounds this season.

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Doswell is going to be interesting this weekend. There is a very shallow top end with a very heavy middle. Team performances have been all over the place so far this season.

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I am surprised that 346 and 422 were left off of this prediction. 346 has a solid high goal shot, and can play some impressive shut down defense that led to them winning Blacksburg. 422 is an impressive low goal scorer that was able to get to the finals of Asheville only to lose in a close finals match.

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Doswell is also full of teams that will doubtlessly make obvious changes of varying magnitudes or sneak in additional fixes.

Also, a note on 346:

-Shoots in the high goal
-Shoots in the low goal
-When it can’t shoot, it decides to go ahead and D up the best shooter in the district and cripples them to an early exit

Also, 836 is a team that usually wins a Chairman’s Award at their first event; their loss to 1885 was probably close to a tossup since they are both great programs. 1629 historically has needed programs like 836 to get off the board before they can win Chairman’s, so I’d consider them for that banner over 1629, who also has racked up more EI awards than 540 has.

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I find this statement interesting!

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Thank you for your kind words about our Chairman’s program. 1885 and 1629 have great programs, are are definitely District and Championship level Chairman’s teams. This has been a huge transition year for us, moving from being a school based and hosted program, to a completely private, community based, non-profit organization. This past year, we have spent significant time, resources and money to acquire a large warehouse to house our new STEM Center. In doing so, we have not added as much new to our program this year as in previous years - but have created the foundation to significantly add to our program in the coming years. It is an honor to be compared favorably to our good friends 1885 and 1629.

Steve

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1629 cannot wait to play with the Bees!!

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We feel the same!!

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I find the speculation around CA quite awkward, regardless of the teams involved. It will drive you nuts trying to figure out ‘why so and so won’ or even ‘why did we win over so and so’.

There are a lot of good programs in the region, especially when we get to know the context of what is happening behind the scenes on a given team by actually listening to their stories.

We too feel honored to be long-time friends with GaCo and the RoboBees. We look forward to seeing you guys at DCMPS!

Edit - BY THE WAY
Doswell needs more refs. If you want to ref, know the rules and feel you can pass the ref test, contact Sally and she’ll put you in touch with Janet. If there aren’t any ‘extra’ refs for the current refs to rotate out, expect a few missed calls/etc to really upset teams. This game doesn’t get any easier to ref just because it’s later in the season.

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I find all speculation to be pretty trippy. I mostly just wanted to bring attention to 836, a team that has won many RCAs in the past because they are a great team. If you ctrl+F the DC-MD-VA events from last year, you don’t see the fact that they won it in Palmetto, Week 1. That’s just one obvious observation I thought was missing.

Re: referees, we are all new to the district system and 422 is also in a position where we are graduating alumni who want to come back and work with the program in certain significant ways as a volunteer. When we got an email for Blacksburg, we had a couple people hop in the fray. It might sound backwards but dropping a line to coaches as soon as possible on specific needs can help all of us throw some names out. People who have never volunteered are not in the VIMS database, but they are in my address book!

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This. If you’re in the area, please help volunteer for the either event. I’ll be volunteering as a ref, a couple of my friends at VCU are doing field reset. Janet is still looking for a lot of people to help out, so if you can, please do.

Good luck to everyone competing at Doswell and Edgewater this weekend!

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Look forward to seeing you there - and on to St. Louis!

Steve

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My statistical analysis has the total points needed to make st Louis at around 132, but the margin of error is larger than I’d like it to be. Did anyone else try to find this?