Detroit Ranking Projections

The match predictions are based off of an Elo and max OPR hybrid model. Face the boss and auto quest RPs are based off of each team’s max previous calculated contribution to those categories.

Fair enough. It’ll be interesting to see how things pan out next week compared to predictions.

Oh yes, I have been. I too am looking forward to seeing seeing them compete. :slight_smile:

I’d bet these predictions will be less accurate than Houston just due to the influence of districts on OPR. Teams like 4917 are way better than their OPR dictates. They have one of the best side climbs in FIRST.

Curie. Sheesh, do we stink that bad? I think not, but of course I am biased!
Surprised 302 is lower as well. Just going off OPR? Also, you get some rough alliance partners and boom goes that.

Guess we will see how everything goes later this week! :slight_smile:
Thanks for posting this. We’ve been going through all our data as well.

Yes, high-confidence predictions for an event that hasn’t played a single match is a little silly… but at the same time, 195 is REALLY good: very fast at all scoring actions; extremely good scale-stack placement; 3-cube far scale auto + 3.5-cube near scale auto (with plans for faster in Detroit); and a great buddy climb.

Yeah, some teams coming from district championships vs some teams coming from a regional (or district) definitely makes OPR a less-accurate metric across events. That said, I believe Caleb’s spreadsheet bases most of W-L-T probability on “winning margin ELO” instead, which should dampen that effect somewhat.

There is obviously the above caveat about comparing OPR across events, but it looks like some of it may just be luck of the schedule.

1519 is ranked 13th by Elo, 5th by total points, and 6th by winning margin, but we are projected to rank in the mid-30s with only a 5% chance of cracking the top 12. We’re hoping to beat that though. :slight_smile:

I did some tests on the Houston data to see how well these pre-event predictions hold up. I think it shows that these predictions are overconfident, but not by a huge margin.

I have attached a graph showing the Predicted probability of team making the top 24 by bin, vs the actual number of teams in that bin who made the top 24. As you can see, teams with a low predicted probability of making the top 24 over-performed, and ranked higher than expected, while those with a high predicted probability under-performed, and ranked lower than expected. This is what you would expect from an overconfident model. Still, the general trend is in the right direction.

Here are the bins that I used:


Max	Min	Pred	Real	%
100%	100%	13	13	100%
99%	95%	20	18	90%
94%	90%	14	11	79%
89%	80%	21	16	76%
79%	70%	24	17	71%
69%	60%	26	15	58%
59%	50%	20	6	30%
49%	40%	21	9	43%
39%	30%	23	11	48%
29%	20%	29	9	31%
19%	10%	54	10	19%
9%	1%	97	8	8%
0%	0%	43	1	2%

Caleb, how are these predictions generated? Are you just running many simulations of the event using a fixed set of probabilities for each match?


CalebEventRankingCheck.xlsx (55.2 KB)

Same here. Hopefully we can change the predictions. :wink: Lots of good teams playing with us, so should be fun and no question competitive!

I’m not really a math guy, but I’m curious why a team can have a higher chance of ranking first than another team but have a lower chance of ranking top 8?

Sweet, I really like when people test out my predictions. Keeps me honest. :wink: The graph you generated is about what I would expect, I knew my predictions were a bit over-confident by a percentage point or two. I personally would have used a larger bin size on the calibration curve since we have a pretty small sample size in some of those bins. I do appreciate you using top 24 instead of 1 seed predictions though since the sample size is much more reasonable. One important caveat here is that the top 24 predictions are (clearly) not independent of each other, when one unexpected team makes it into the top 24, they are basically by definition pushing out another team.

Caleb, how are these predictions generated? Are you just running many simulations of the event using a fixed set of probabilities for each match?

Yes, that is correct, I generate probabilities for wins and RPs first, and then run hundreds of Monte Carlo simulations on these predictions. I would have preferred that the simulations run “hot” instead, that is, simulate match 1, re-compute probabilities for match 2, simulate match 2, etc… Unfortunately though, this approach takes tens to hundreds of times longer in my current setup. I think this approach would relieve some of the over-confidence problem, but I would need to find a way to do it faster to be useful.

Here is a rough outline of the things I want to improve about my ranking projections, from most important to least:

  1. Actually calibrate the RP predictions. I was way better about this last year, but never quite got my calibration book up and running this year. Right now, RP predictions are just the sum of teams’ predicted contributions to those categories, bounded below by 0% and above by 100%. This is a reasonable guess, but I’m sure I could’ve made these better
  2. Find out if there is any correlation between getting RPs and winning. Intuitively, these should be closely connected, but I haven’t verified or falsified this. I tried to do this last year, but bonus RPs last year were so rare that I couldn’t conclude anything meaningful when I looked at it (week 4ish I think)
  3. Make second order sort predictions. I did this last year since, due to fewer bonus RPs, the second order sort was much more important. I didn’t get around to predicting park/climb points this year though.
  4. Predict ties. This isn’t super important this year, but if we ever got a game like 2010 again where ties were frequent, my simulator would do a pretty bad job.
  5. Allow for more simulations. My simulator caps at 1000 right now for some silly reasons that I could probably fix. If I go higher I want to improve the speed of execution though, since a 1000 simulation run already takes on the order of a minute for me, which means on some computers it might take even longer.
  6. Make predictions run “hot” as described above. This is low on the list because I don’t believe it will improve predictions as much as some of the above things, and because it would likely require major changes to the structure of the code.

Consider an event where every team gets twelve matches. Let’s say that you need eleven or twelve wins to seed first, and at least 8 wins to get into the top 8 (ignore other RPs for simplicity).

Team A is a moderate favorite in all of their matches.
Team B is a very strong favorite in 9 of their matches, but is a severe underdog in the other 3.

Which team is more likely to seed first? Which team is more likely to get into the top 8?

Just a quick heads up, the match schedule I used to generate predictions for Archimedes was missing a couple of matches. I don’t know exactly how that will affect the projections, but I’ll post an update for Archimedes after the schedule is fixed.

Archimedes Projections using the official schedule:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
67	36%	88%	95%	97%	100%
870	18%	72%	83%	87%	96%
4003	9%	60%	74%	81%	94%
868	6%	52%	70%	79%	94%
5407	6%	51%	69%	76%	92%
694	4%	43%	60%	70%	89%
1325	2%	41%	59%	69%	88%
3620	3%	37%	55%	67%	88%
6328	1%	32%	50%	61%	81%
1114	3%	30%	48%	58%	78%
1923	2%	30%	49%	59%	81%
1756	1%	24%	39%	49%	74%
5436	1%	23%	35%	44%	68%
2220	1%	20%	34%	45%	70%
2200	1%	19%	31%	42%	67%
5674	2%	18%	29%	41%	64%
1259	1%	17%	29%	39%	65%
4776	1%	16%	27%	36%	63%
303	1%	15%	26%	35%	63%
1218	0%	13%	25%	35%	61%
1262	1%	12%	19%	26%	50%
3656	0%	9%	19%	24%	51%
1493	0%	9%	18%	27%	50%
3767	0%	6%	11%	16%	40%
2016	0%	5%	10%	15%	32%
4909	0%	5%	10%	16%	36%
4557	0%	5%	10%	16%	36%
4541	0%	5%	11%	17%	38%
2075	0%	4%	10%	16%	37%
2202	0%	4%	8%	12%	31%
4237	0%	4%	9%	14%	32%
612	0%	3%	8%	14%	31%
3928	0%	3%	7%	10%	28%
2377	0%	3%	7%	11%	27%
4786	0%	3%	6%	10%	28%
5724	0%	3%	5%	9%	27%
6121	0%	2%	6%	9%	21%
1322	0%	2%	5%	7%	20%
447	0%	2%	4%	7%	20%
894	0%	2%	5%	7%	21%
2177	0%	2%	4%	5%	14%
4392	0%	2%	5%	8%	20%
3618	0%	1%	3%	5%	14%
2081	0%	1%	2%	5%	17%
6237	0%	1%	3%	6%	16%
58	0%	1%	1%	2%	8%
6875	0%	1%	1%	2%	10%
5216	0%	1%	2%	3%	11%
2830	0%	0%	1%	2%	7%
6329	0%	0%	1%	1%	4%
1559	0%	0%	1%	1%	6%
1660	0%	0%	1%	3%	10%
4011	0%	0%	1%	1%	4%
5531	0%	0%	1%	2%	5%
4096	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
7329	0%	0%	1%	1%	3%
555	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2549	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
5413	0%	0%	1%	2%	6%
5913	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2228	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2620	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3381	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4521	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
5422	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6860	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6968	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7160	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

67 shoots up to the 1 rank favorite, they were missing match 69 previously. 5407, 694, and 1923 are other likely high ranking teams who also were missing a match in the previous projections. For reference, the missing matches were 34, 69, and 103.

Lunchtime update:

Archimedes:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
67	62%	97%	99%	99%	100%
868	16%	90%	96%	98%	100%
1756	9%	81%	91%	95%	99%
1325	5%	68%	83%	89%	98%
4003	2%	45%	64%	75%	92%
3620	1%	43%	64%	76%	93%
870	1%	42%	65%	76%	93%
6328	1%	39%	59%	69%	88%
694	1%	34%	53%	66%	87%
2220	0%	33%	53%	66%	87%
1923	1%	30%	48%	61%	87%
3928	0%	24%	42%	55%	83%
303	1%	23%	41%	55%	83%
5407	0%	20%	40%	53%	83%
5436	0%	18%	37%	50%	78%
6875	0%	15%	29%	41%	73%
1259	0%	14%	25%	36%	66%
4776	0%	13%	27%	39%	69%
2200	0%	13%	28%	39%	73%
4237	0%	11%	23%	33%	65%
4557	0%	10%	20%	29%	63%
1114	0%	8%	20%	32%	65%
1322	0%	6%	14%	22%	48%
5724	0%	4%	14%	21%	53%
4786	0%	4%	14%	22%	58%
894	0%	3%	7%	12%	36%
3656	0%	3%	5%	8%	31%
612	0%	2%	6%	12%	36%
2202	0%	1%	3%	5%	22%
2016	0%	1%	3%	5%	20%
2377	0%	1%	5%	9%	30%
5674	0%	1%	3%	5%	19%
1218	0%	1%	3%	7%	21%
1262	0%	1%	3%	6%	21%
2177	0%	1%	2%	4%	16%
2549	0%	1%	3%	6%	21%
2830	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%
4909	0%	0%	2%	3%	13%
5216	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%
1559	0%	0%	1%	2%	9%
4541	0%	0%	1%	2%	13%
447	0%	0%	1%	3%	14%
1660	0%	0%	1%	2%	12%
4521	0%	0%	1%	1%	4%
555	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
1493	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
3618	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%
3767	0%	0%	0%	1%	2%
4011	0%	0%	1%	2%	8%
58	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2075	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
2081	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
2228	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2620	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3381	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4096	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
4392	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
5413	0%	0%	1%	1%	3%
5422	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5531	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5913	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6121	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6237	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
6329	0%	0%	1%	1%	8%
6860	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6968	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7160	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7329	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%

Carson:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
71	43%	97%	99%	100%	100%
1731	29%	92%	97%	98%	100%
225	16%	90%	97%	99%	100%
1507	6%	70%	84%	90%	98%
217	1%	52%	71%	82%	96%
862	1%	51%	71%	82%	95%
5050	2%	51%	70%	79%	94%
25	1%	43%	65%	76%	93%
3015	1%	40%	62%	75%	92%
1918	0%	32%	53%	69%	90%
3357	0%	22%	39%	50%	78%
2502	1%	19%	36%	49%	79%
2771	0%	16%	32%	45%	74%
384	0%	13%	29%	40%	63%
4253	0%	13%	29%	42%	71%
88	0%	13%	28%	38%	73%
1640	0%	9%	22%	33%	62%
4967	0%	9%	19%	28%	54%
6334	0%	9%	23%	34%	63%
5254	0%	8%	17%	26%	56%
2137	0%	7%	16%	23%	48%
1816	0%	6%	15%	23%	49%
1736	0%	6%	17%	27%	61%
7225	0%	5%	15%	24%	53%
5846	0%	4%	9%	14%	38%
3990	0%	3%	10%	16%	42%
4361	0%	3%	9%	16%	43%
5505	0%	3%	6%	10%	27%
2338	0%	3%	7%	13%	35%
3276	0%	3%	8%	13%	37%
103	0%	3%	8%	13%	34%
5404	0%	2%	7%	11%	32%
5546	0%	2%	5%	10%	30%
4004	0%	1%	3%	6%	22%
133	0%	1%	4%	7%	28%
190	0%	1%	1%	2%	12%
4476	0%	1%	2%	6%	24%
3604	0%	1%	2%	5%	19%
467	0%	0%	1%	2%	7%
2846	0%	0%	5%	8%	27%
272	0%	0%	1%	1%	7%
2832	0%	0%	1%	2%	9%
6548	0%	0%	2%	3%	12%
191	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
2537	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%
3936	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
3940	0%	0%	1%	2%	7%
4230	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
422	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%
1100	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1885	0%	0%	1%	3%	12%
2225	0%	0%	0%	1%	3%
2234	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2586	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2604	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2987	0%	0%	0%	1%	3%
3044	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3359	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3624	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4130	0%	0%	1%	2%	14%
4145	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5016	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5123	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
5484	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6806	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
6880	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6909	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7028	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Curie:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
3538	41%	93%	97%	98%	100%
3707	23%	88%	95%	98%	100%
195	16%	88%	95%	97%	100%
2054	5%	52%	74%	83%	96%
20	4%	60%	79%	87%	97%
3452	3%	45%	67%	78%	93%
2052	3%	69%	86%	92%	99%
5813	2%	57%	76%	84%	96%
4405	2%	58%	78%	87%	97%
1747	1%	21%	40%	52%	80%
3244	1%	25%	44%	56%	82%
70	0%	18%	37%	51%	78%
7198	0%	7%	20%	32%	67%
302	0%	17%	33%	46%	72%
1718	0%	15%	33%	45%	76%
4903	0%	12%	28%	41%	69%
1071	0%	9%	21%	31%	65%
4384	0%	2%	6%	12%	31%
5687	0%	11%	28%	41%	73%
2638	0%	9%	20%	31%	62%
1025	0%	8%	21%	32%	64%
4342	0%	7%	17%	26%	57%
503	0%	6%	18%	31%	67%
1023	0%	3%	8%	15%	43%
1741	0%	3%	8%	15%	42%
2175	0%	3%	10%	17%	43%
3314	0%	2%	7%	12%	36%
230	0%	2%	7%	13%	36%
5460	0%	2%	8%	17%	44%
236	0%	2%	6%	11%	29%
5804	0%	1%	5%	10%	33%
5603	0%	1%	5%	9%	33%
1684	0%	1%	2%	5%	19%
4655	0%	1%	3%	6%	22%
4976	0%	1%	2%	4%	17%
910	0%	1%	3%	5%	24%
263	0%	0%	2%	4%	16%
167	0%	0%	3%	8%	25%
5822	0%	0%	2%	3%	13%
379	0%	0%	1%	3%	14%
2601	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
5907	0%	0%	0%	1%	3%
7021	0%	0%	1%	2%	9%
45	0%	0%	1%	1%	9%
333	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
558	0%	0%	2%	3%	15%
5553	0%	0%	1%	1%	9%
6933	0%	0%	1%	1%	5%
126	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
316	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1555	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1599	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
2067	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%
2265	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2826	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
3082	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3324	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
4099	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4607	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4814	0%	0%	0%	1%	3%
5205	0%	0%	1%	1%	6%
5712	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
6032	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6175	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6401	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
7103	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
7250	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Daly:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
2767	90%	100%	100%	100%	100%
610	3%	80%	91%	95%	100%
4539	2%	62%	77%	84%	96%
2877	0%	56%	72%	80%	95%
2706	1%	46%	66%	76%	91%
27	1%	42%	59%	71%	92%
5517	0%	41%	61%	73%	90%
1629	0%	38%	58%	68%	89%
346	1%	36%	53%	65%	88%
4027	0%	33%	50%	59%	80%
245	0%	30%	50%	62%	87%
4855	0%	24%	41%	53%	79%
1305	0%	21%	36%	46%	75%
1796	0%	18%	32%	41%	73%
141	0%	17%	30%	39%	69%
4362	0%	17%	31%	45%	76%
614	0%	17%	30%	40%	69%
33	0%	16%	27%	37%	65%
6753	0%	14%	27%	40%	71%
1024	0%	13%	26%	38%	70%
5561	0%	10%	19%	27%	58%
188	0%	9%	17%	24%	49%
747	0%	8%	20%	31%	62%
469	0%	8%	19%	27%	57%
401	0%	7%	17%	27%	60%
623	0%	7%	15%	22%	50%
836	0%	7%	14%	23%	56%
3539	0%	6%	14%	21%	46%
4481	0%	6%	12%	20%	50%
888	0%	4%	11%	18%	43%
237	0%	3%	7%	12%	36%
5030	0%	1%	4%	6%	21%
3534	0%	1%	2%	4%	18%
3236	0%	1%	3%	5%	17%
7048	0%	1%	2%	4%	17%
2170	0%	1%	2%	6%	27%
3175	0%	0%	2%	3%	15%
1189	0%	0%	1%	3%	11%
611	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2708	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%
2729	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
3683	0%	0%	1%	1%	9%
4308	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
74	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
145	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
329	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
337	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
369	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
663	0%	0%	0%	1%	3%
810	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1076	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1468	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
1739	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2013	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2512	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
2783	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3171	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
3637	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3950	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4327	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
4466	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4811	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5148	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5243	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
5962	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6868	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6964	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7153	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Darwin:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
56	42%	97%	99%	100%	100%
4028	12%	83%	94%	98%	100%
177	17%	78%	89%	93%	99%
5406	11%	69%	85%	92%	99%
2791	6%	66%	83%	89%	98%
2194	3%	52%	73%	83%	97%
494	2%	50%	72%	83%	96%
2337	0%	43%	67%	80%	96%
125	2%	41%	64%	77%	94%
1391	1%	33%	56%	69%	90%
865	2%	33%	55%	69%	90%
3536	1%	26%	48%	62%	87%
3695	1%	24%	45%	59%	87%
176	0%	23%	45%	60%	89%
3542	0%	13%	27%	41%	76%
4458	0%	10%	23%	32%	62%
5914	0%	9%	20%	29%	60%
4946	0%	6%	16%	28%	64%
234	0%	6%	17%	29%	63%
6869	0%	5%	13%	22%	53%
578	0%	4%	12%	22%	55%
1625	0%	4%	13%	22%	58%
772	0%	4%	14%	26%	59%
2834	0%	4%	9%	16%	41%
4122	0%	4%	9%	15%	40%
365	0%	3%	6%	11%	39%
2451	0%	2%	8%	15%	42%
5036	0%	2%	6%	11%	34%
3572	0%	1%	4%	7%	28%
247	0%	1%	5%	8%	28%
2481	0%	1%	3%	8%	33%
5492	0%	1%	2%	5%	19%
51	0%	1%	2%	3%	16%
1519	0%	1%	2%	3%	18%
78	0%	1%	2%	5%	19%
6193	0%	0%	1%	3%	15%
157	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
1418	0%	0%	1%	2%	11%
2501	0%	0%	2%	4%	16%
4917	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%
5740	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
5883	0%	0%	2%	4%	23%
3130	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%
4198	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
6936	0%	0%	1%	2%	12%
111	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
250	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
548	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
857	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
977	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1018	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1711	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3117	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3274	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3461	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%
3504	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3535	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3844	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%
4645	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4905	0%	0%	0%	2%	8%
5234	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%
5339	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5434	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5443	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6590	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6823	0%	0%	1%	1%	7%
6947	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%

Tesla:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
2056	71%	99%	100%	100%	100%
1241	16%	94%	98%	100%	100%
3641	3%	77%	89%	94%	98%
2590	5%	72%	85%	91%	99%
85	2%	62%	80%	87%	97%
340	1%	62%	81%	89%	98%
314	1%	58%	77%	86%	97%
2168	0%	35%	56%	70%	92%
319	0%	32%	58%	71%	94%
5567	0%	27%	49%	62%	86%
3098	0%	22%	42%	55%	78%
4678	0%	21%	40%	51%	77%
6618	0%	19%	36%	50%	77%
3546	0%	17%	38%	51%	78%
2614	0%	12%	26%	37%	69%
6077	0%	10%	21%	33%	64%
5172	0%	10%	24%	37%	69%
6090	0%	8%	19%	29%	58%
525	0%	7%	16%	25%	55%
3623	0%	7%	16%	25%	53%
1676	0%	6%	18%	28%	63%
291	0%	5%	14%	22%	49%
1712	0%	5%	14%	22%	56%
5980	0%	4%	12%	20%	44%
2869	0%	4%	10%	20%	51%
3667	0%	4%	12%	19%	48%
4472	0%	4%	16%	27%	62%
3770	0%	3%	10%	17%	41%
5675	0%	2%	6%	9%	26%
5528	0%	2%	5%	10%	28%
1073	0%	2%	5%	12%	38%
5114	0%	2%	5%	8%	29%
1720	0%	1%	4%	8%	22%
2474	0%	1%	3%	8%	29%
7226	0%	1%	3%	5%	20%
1792	0%	1%	3%	6%	23%
321	0%	0%	1%	2%	8%
4039	0%	0%	1%	4%	20%
6574	0%	0%	2%	3%	13%
573	0%	0%	1%	2%	11%
597	0%	0%	1%	3%	18%
4391	0%	0%	1%	1%	8%
708	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%
1506	0%	0%	1%	3%	16%
6802	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
238	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
527	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
533	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
743	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1310	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
1360	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1729	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2169	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2500	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2609	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3038	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3197	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
3258	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3550	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4531	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4618	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
4680	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4810	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4939	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5090	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6911	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
7068	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

That’s a pretty harsh drip for 217! How are you calculating these?

Thursday night update:

Archimedes:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
868	44%	99%	100%	100%	100%
1325	22%	96%	99%	100%	100%
67	12%	94%	99%	100%	100%
1756	10%	92%	98%	99%	100%
4776	3%	75%	92%	96%	100%
4003	5%	75%	90%	94%	99%
6328	3%	75%	89%	94%	99%
4786	0%	33%	59%	73%	93%
694	0%	29%	56%	70%	91%
303	0%	27%	56%	69%	92%
3928	0%	21%	51%	65%	90%
1923	0%	12%	41%	58%	90%
894	0%	11%	32%	49%	84%
2202	0%	9%	23%	36%	69%
2220	0%	9%	28%	46%	79%
4237	0%	8%	26%	43%	80%
3620	0%	5%	18%	35%	78%
2075	0%	5%	15%	25%	61%
1114	0%	4%	14%	25%	60%
6875	0%	4%	14%	28%	66%
5436	0%	3%	18%	33%	74%
1259	0%	3%	15%	23%	58%
1559	0%	3%	15%	26%	64%
2200	0%	3%	9%	16%	47%
5674	0%	2%	9%	16%	47%
4541	0%	2%	6%	13%	40%
2830	0%	1%	8%	15%	47%
4557	0%	1%	4%	6%	32%
612	0%	0%	3%	6%	35%
4909	0%	0%	2%	4%	18%
5724	0%	0%	3%	9%	40%
1322	0%	0%	2%	6%	25%
5216	0%	0%	3%	5%	18%
1218	0%	0%	3%	7%	33%
2377	0%	0%	1%	4%	18%
58	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
447	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
555	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
870	0%	0%	0%	2%	14%
1262	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1493	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1660	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2016	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
2081	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2177	0%	0%	0%	0%	9%
2228	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2549	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2620	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3381	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3618	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3656	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3767	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4011	0%	0%	1%	1%	5%
4096	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4392	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4521	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
5407	0%	0%	1%	4%	26%
5413	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5422	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5531	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5913	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
6121	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6237	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6329	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6860	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6968	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7160	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7329	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%

Carson:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
225	56%	99%	100%	100%	100%
217	20%	93%	98%	99%	100%
71	12%	91%	97%	99%	100%
1731	6%	90%	98%	99%	100%
1507	2%	68%	87%	93%	99%
3357	2%	62%	82%	88%	97%
384	1%	49%	67%	77%	93%
4253	0%	43%	69%	80%	96%
25	0%	34%	62%	77%	96%
1736	0%	30%	59%	74%	95%
5050	0%	28%	54%	68%	91%
4967	0%	19%	41%	57%	86%
2502	0%	14%	37%	53%	86%
1640	0%	14%	33%	48%	81%
6548	0%	9%	22%	34%	75%
1918	0%	8%	21%	32%	66%
5254	0%	7%	20%	33%	66%
1816	0%	6%	16%	30%	69%
3276	0%	6%	19%	32%	72%
3015	0%	5%	20%	38%	76%
133	0%	5%	17%	31%	64%
3990	0%	4%	16%	29%	67%
5846	0%	4%	13%	23%	59%
103	0%	4%	9%	17%	49%
5505	0%	3%	9%	17%	52%
2338	0%	1%	8%	14%	40%
190	0%	1%	4%	8%	35%
862	0%	1%	7%	15%	50%
7225	0%	1%	4%	8%	34%
5546	0%	1%	3%	6%	29%
4361	0%	1%	3%	7%	28%
2137	0%	0%	1%	4%	18%
3940	0%	0%	1%	2%	8%
2225	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
3936	0%	0%	1%	1%	8%
88	0%	0%	0%	1%	10%
191	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
272	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
422	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
467	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1100	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
1885	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2234	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2537	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2586	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2604	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2771	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
2832	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
2846	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
2987	0%	0%	1%	1%	12%
3044	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3359	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3604	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3624	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
4004	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
4130	0%	0%	1%	1%	9%
4145	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4230	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4476	0%	0%	1%	1%	13%
5016	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5123	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5404	0%	0%	0%	1%	11%
5484	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6334	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%
6806	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
6880	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
6909	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7028	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Curie:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
3707	37%	97%	100%	100%	100%
3538	26%	96%	99%	100%	100%
2054	18%	85%	95%	98%	100%
3452	12%	85%	94%	96%	100%
4405	4%	72%	87%	92%	99%
195	0%	54%	78%	88%	99%
5813	1%	47%	67%	78%	93%
5687	0%	45%	74%	86%	98%
2052	0%	31%	57%	71%	92%
1747	0%	30%	51%	62%	88%
70	0%	28%	56%	69%	90%
1741	0%	21%	42%	58%	87%
3244	0%	17%	35%	50%	83%
20	0%	17%	40%	57%	88%
558	0%	13%	34%	55%	89%
1718	0%	10%	25%	37%	69%
236	0%	9%	27%	43%	78%
126	0%	9%	23%	37%	75%
3314	0%	8%	22%	34%	74%
302	0%	6%	18%	31%	65%
5603	0%	4%	14%	24%	64%
910	0%	3%	11%	20%	52%
2067	0%	2%	9%	17%	58%
4342	0%	2%	7%	14%	43%
1684	0%	2%	6%	12%	32%
4384	0%	1%	6%	11%	38%
5553	0%	1%	4%	7%	20%
1071	0%	1%	2%	3%	20%
5460	0%	1%	4%	11%	38%
503	0%	0%	2%	4%	17%
1025	0%	0%	1%	5%	26%
7198	0%	0%	3%	7%	31%
2175	0%	0%	1%	4%	25%
5205	0%	0%	1%	3%	17%
230	0%	0%	1%	3%	16%
2265	0%	0%	1%	3%	15%
2638	0%	0%	1%	2%	15%
45	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
167	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
263	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%
316	0%	0%	1%	2%	11%
333	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
379	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
1023	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
1555	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1599	0%	0%	1%	2%	13%
2601	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2826	0%	0%	1%	1%	8%
3082	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3324	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%
4099	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4607	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4655	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
4814	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4903	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
4976	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
5712	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
5804	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
5822	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
5907	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6032	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6175	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6401	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6933	0%	0%	0%	1%	9%
7021	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
7103	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
7250	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Daly:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
4539	50%	99%	100%	100%	100%
2767	32%	97%	99%	100%	100%
610	11%	88%	96%	98%	100%
401	1%	68%	85%	92%	99%
346	2%	64%	84%	91%	98%
1629	0%	56%	76%	85%	97%
188	2%	53%	72%	81%	94%
2877	0%	46%	73%	82%	96%
469	1%	46%	70%	81%	97%
5561	0%	33%	52%	64%	87%
4855	0%	21%	46%	59%	87%
3683	0%	16%	35%	49%	79%
1796	0%	15%	32%	44%	73%
1024	0%	14%	29%	41%	70%
4362	0%	12%	28%	40%	70%
4481	0%	12%	23%	33%	66%
888	0%	8%	24%	36%	70%
141	0%	8%	20%	31%	64%
3539	0%	7%	17%	27%	60%
1189	0%	5%	13%	21%	47%
5517	0%	5%	14%	26%	63%
237	0%	4%	14%	24%	54%
2706	0%	4%	12%	22%	56%
245	0%	4%	22%	40%	76%
614	0%	4%	10%	16%	43%
27	0%	3%	10%	18%	50%
2729	0%	2%	7%	14%	52%
33	0%	1%	5%	9%	24%
623	0%	1%	5%	9%	29%
5030	0%	1%	4%	9%	28%
663	0%	1%	4%	9%	30%
145	0%	1%	5%	11%	37%
1468	0%	0%	1%	4%	16%
7048	0%	0%	2%	4%	17%
836	0%	0%	2%	6%	28%
747	0%	0%	4%	10%	37%
2512	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
4466	0%	0%	1%	1%	6%
6753	0%	0%	1%	3%	19%
2170	0%	0%	1%	3%	25%
74	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
329	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
337	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
369	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
611	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
810	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1076	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1305	0%	0%	1%	3%	18%
1739	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2013	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
2708	0%	0%	1%	1%	9%
2783	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3171	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3175	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3236	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%
3534	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3637	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3950	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4027	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
4308	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4327	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4811	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5148	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5243	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5962	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6868	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6964	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7153	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Darwin:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
56	52%	99%	100%	100%	100%
177	13%	85%	96%	99%	100%
1391	8%	85%	96%	98%	100%
4028	11%	85%	95%	98%	100%
494	6%	75%	91%	96%	100%
5406	5%	64%	82%	92%	100%
176	1%	52%	78%	89%	99%
2194	1%	46%	71%	83%	98%
3542	1%	41%	69%	85%	99%
125	1%	39%	64%	78%	98%
2337	0%	20%	49%	65%	94%
3536	0%	19%	45%	65%	95%
234	0%	19%	44%	61%	91%
4946	0%	16%	37%	53%	89%
5914	0%	11%	29%	44%	85%
6869	0%	10%	27%	42%	84%
865	0%	10%	26%	41%	78%
772	0%	7%	25%	45%	86%
2791	0%	4%	15%	30%	75%
1625	0%	4%	13%	24%	70%
5036	0%	4%	13%	21%	56%
3695	0%	2%	9%	18%	64%
247	0%	1%	4%	9%	42%
4198	0%	1%	4%	8%	39%
1519	0%	1%	4%	9%	43%
578	0%	1%	4%	11%	60%
4458	0%	0%	1%	3%	23%
5883	0%	0%	6%	14%	54%
78	0%	0%	0%	1%	9%
2451	0%	0%	1%	3%	34%
51	0%	0%	1%	2%	20%
111	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
157	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
250	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
365	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
548	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
857	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
977	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1018	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1418	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
1711	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2481	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
2501	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
2834	0%	0%	1%	2%	19%
3117	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3130	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
3274	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3461	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
3504	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3535	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3572	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
3844	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
4122	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4645	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4905	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4917	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5234	0%	0%	1%	4%	35%
5339	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5434	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5443	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
5492	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5740	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6193	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
6590	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6823	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6936	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%
6947	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Tesla:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
2056	98%	100%	100%	100%	100%
3641	0%	85%	96%	99%	100%
1241	1%	78%	92%	97%	100%
340	0%	76%	93%	98%	100%
5567	0%	69%	89%	97%	100%
319	0%	63%	85%	93%	100%
85	0%	62%	80%	87%	98%
3546	0%	51%	74%	85%	98%
2168	0%	43%	67%	79%	95%
6090	0%	35%	58%	70%	91%
314	0%	27%	58%	74%	96%
3098	0%	16%	38%	56%	87%
1712	0%	14%	35%	54%	86%
2614	0%	14%	35%	51%	85%
4678	0%	12%	35%	51%	85%
5172	0%	12%	31%	47%	78%
2590	0%	12%	30%	46%	80%
1676	0%	7%	20%	34%	75%
3770	0%	5%	14%	24%	61%
3667	0%	4%	14%	26%	63%
5528	0%	2%	7%	14%	45%
6077	0%	2%	5%	11%	47%
7226	0%	2%	6%	12%	55%
1073	0%	1%	6%	12%	47%
5980	0%	1%	4%	9%	33%
597	0%	1%	6%	14%	48%
291	0%	1%	7%	14%	47%
2869	0%	1%	4%	9%	39%
3623	0%	1%	2%	4%	23%
1792	0%	1%	4%	8%	31%
708	0%	0%	2%	4%	21%
5675	0%	0%	1%	3%	17%
525	0%	0%	1%	4%	22%
4472	0%	0%	1%	2%	21%
4618	0%	0%	1%	3%	23%
6574	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
238	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
321	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
527	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
533	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
573	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
743	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1310	0%	0%	1%	1%	11%
1360	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1506	0%	0%	0%	1%	11%
1720	0%	0%	0%	1%	12%
1729	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2169	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2474	0%	0%	1%	2%	10%
2500	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2609	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
3038	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3197	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
3258	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3550	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
4039	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
4391	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4531	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4680	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4810	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4939	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5090	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5114	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6618	0%	0%	1%	3%	24%
6802	0%	0%	0%	1%	9%
6911	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7068	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

I’m just copying and pasting from my event simulator. There are descriptions in there and in this thread. Let me know if anything is unclear.

Don’t worry. According to this, 3310 had a 0% chance of finishing number 1 after Thursday in Houston :rolleyes:

There’s a reason we still play the matches :stuck_out_tongue:
I’m wondering how accurate the predictions are after 1 day of competition. Seems like heavy is the crown in Archimedes…

This is why I don’t trust statistics fully… 4539 is a monster :wink:

Knowing how we’ve done so far, i like to think we have a good chance of placing 1! I just like looking at the numbers and dats crunching :stuck_out_tongue:

It should be noted that 0% and 100% predictions do not mean that a team is mathematically guaranteed or eliminated from anything. It just means that the unexpected scenarios occurred in less than 5 out of 1000 simulations (since I rounded in the post).

From the perspective of Thursday night last week, 3310 seeding first was actually nuts. To seed first, 3310 needed to get 4 RP in all Friday matches and have 1678 miss out on at least 4 ranking points on Friday (or similarly crazy scenarios, like 3310 missing only 1 RP and 1678 missing 5). Around 1% sounds about right to me.

4539 doing this well is similarly crazy. They had never even done a buddy climb prior to this competition. There are ~100 “good” teams over all divisions that didn’t have a solid buddy climber going into champs, it doesn’t shock me that one of them developed a successful one, which is about 1%.

I’m not at all upset at either of you or anything, just trying to provide some perspective. I’m worried this post will come off as defensive, when that’s not at all my intent. It’s a real possibility that I should have valued 4539 or 3310 higher. I’m just pointing out that if people wait until after events have occurred to say my predictions were wrong, my assumption is usually that they have succumbed to hindsight bias. :slight_smile: If you see any teams under or over valued for my current Detroit predictions, call them out before tomorrow and then we’ll see what happens. Particularly if you find 10 or more teams, I would be very interested, as that is potentially a reasonable enough sample size to actually identify a bias in my system.

I welcome people to make calibration curves like AGPapa’s. That’s one of the best ways to evaluate if I’m BSing stuff or not. Just please use large sample sizes. I’m happy to provide historical data if you trust that I won’t change any of the predictions after the fact.