Don’t worry. According to this, 3310 had a 0% chance of finishing number 1 after Thursday in Houston :rolleyes:
There’s a reason we still play the matches 
I’m wondering how accurate the predictions are after 1 day of competition. Seems like heavy is the crown in Archimedes…
This is why I don’t trust statistics fully… 4539 is a monster 
Knowing how we’ve done so far, i like to think we have a good chance of placing 1! I just like looking at the numbers and dats crunching
It should be noted that 0% and 100% predictions do not mean that a team is mathematically guaranteed or eliminated from anything. It just means that the unexpected scenarios occurred in less than 5 out of 1000 simulations (since I rounded in the post).
From the perspective of Thursday night last week, 3310 seeding first was actually nuts. To seed first, 3310 needed to get 4 RP in all Friday matches and have 1678 miss out on at least 4 ranking points on Friday (or similarly crazy scenarios, like 3310 missing only 1 RP and 1678 missing 5). Around 1% sounds about right to me.
4539 doing this well is similarly crazy. They had never even done a buddy climb prior to this competition. There are ~100 “good” teams over all divisions that didn’t have a solid buddy climber going into champs, it doesn’t shock me that one of them developed a successful one, which is about 1%.
I’m not at all upset at either of you or anything, just trying to provide some perspective. I’m worried this post will come off as defensive, when that’s not at all my intent. It’s a real possibility that I should have valued 4539 or 3310 higher. I’m just pointing out that if people wait until after events have occurred to say my predictions were wrong, my assumption is usually that they have succumbed to hindsight bias. 
If you see any teams under or over valued for my current Detroit predictions, call them out before tomorrow and then we’ll see what happens. Particularly if you find 10 or more teams, I would be very interested, as that is potentially a reasonable enough sample size to actually identify a bias in my system.
I welcome people to make calibration curves like AGPapa’s. That’s one of the best ways to evaluate if I’m BSing stuff or not. Just please use large sample sizes. I’m happy to provide historical data if you trust that I won’t change any of the predictions after the fact.
I’ll likely be too busy over lunch to post projections, but if anyone else wants to grab them from my simulator and post them be my guest.
I got ya Caleb
Archimedes
Number Top 1 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15 Top 24
67 67% 100% 100% 100% 100%
4776 11% 99% 100% 100% 100%
1325 11% 99% 100% 100% 100%
868 11% 99% 100% 100% 100%
4003 0% 94% 100% 100% 100%
1756 0% 83% 98% 100% 100%
6328 0% 58% 89% 96% 100%
694 0% 37% 78% 89% 99%
1114 0% 35% 66% 82% 99%
3928 0% 34% 78% 90% 100%
6875 0% 30% 62% 81% 99%
4786 0% 23% 66% 87% 100%
1923 0% 3% 43% 65% 99%
303 0% 3% 21% 48% 93%
5407 0% 1% 21% 45% 94%
2220 0% 1% 22% 51% 93%
4237 0% 1% 14% 39% 92%
1218 0% 1% 5% 12% 66%
2200 0% 0% 10% 25% 77%
1322 0% 0% 6% 16% 66%
3620 0% 0% 6% 19% 92%
4541 0% 0% 14% 32% 92%
1559 0% 0% 1% 5% 49%
58 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
447 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
555 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%
612 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
870 0% 0% 0% 1% 27%
894 0% 0% 1% 7% 55%
1259 0% 0% 0% 1% 17%
1262 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1493 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1660 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2016 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
2075 0% 0% 0% 2% 22%
2081 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2177 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
2202 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2228 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2377 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%
2549 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2620 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2830 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3381 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3618 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3656 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%
3767 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4011 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4096 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4392 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4521 0% 0% 0% 1% 11%
4557 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%
4909 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
5216 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
5413 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5422 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5436 0% 0% 0% 0% 30%
5531 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5674 0% 0% 0% 3% 36%
5724 0% 0% 0% 2% 39%
5913 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
6121 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6237 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6329 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6860 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6968 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7160 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7329 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Carson
Number Top 1 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15 Top 24
225 91% 100% 100% 100% 100%
217 8% 100% 100% 100% 100%
3357 1% 99% 100% 100% 100%
71 0% 89% 99% 100% 100%
5050 0% 84% 95% 98% 100%
1507 0% 79% 97% 100% 100%
384 0% 64% 87% 96% 100%
2502 0% 51% 83% 95% 100%
862 0% 26% 58% 78% 99%
4253 0% 25% 58% 72% 96%
1640 0% 20% 49% 70% 96%
1736 0% 20% 57% 83% 100%
1918 0% 17% 50% 71% 97%
3276 0% 13% 41% 59% 94%
5505 0% 6% 22% 37% 83%
1731 0% 3% 42% 68% 98%
6548 0% 2% 18% 33% 83%
4130 0% 1% 4% 9% 44%
1816 0% 1% 5% 13% 62%
133 0% 0% 10% 26% 86%
4361 0% 0% 3% 9% 50%
1100 0% 0% 1% 4% 33%
6334 0% 0% 13% 36% 92%
3015 0% 0% 5% 22% 78%
4967 0% 0% 1% 7% 50%
3990 0% 0% 1% 3% 28%
25 0% 0% 0% 7% 53%
88 0% 0% 0% 3% 44%
3936 0% 0% 0% 2% 25%
5846 0% 0% 0% 1% 31%
7225 0% 0% 0% 1% 15%
103 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
190 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
191 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
272 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
422 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%
467 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1885 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2137 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
2225 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
2234 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2338 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2537 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2586 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2604 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2771 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2832 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2846 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
2987 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
3044 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3359 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3604 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3624 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3940 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
4004 0% 0% 0% 0% 20%
4145 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4230 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4476 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5016 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5123 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
5254 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5404 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5484 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5546 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%
6806 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6880 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6909 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7028 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Curie
Number Top 1 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15 Top 24
3707 71% 100% 100% 100% 100%
3452 18% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2054 9% 93% 98% 99% 100%
5687 1% 82% 96% 99% 100%
195 0% 96% 100% 100% 100%
1684 0% 46% 79% 90% 100%
3538 0% 77% 94% 97% 100%
5813 0% 64% 87% 94% 100%
4405 0% 24% 55% 71% 94%
20 0% 21% 52% 67% 93%
558 0% 20% 61% 80% 98%
126 0% 16% 40% 57% 87%
70 0% 12% 44% 64% 93%
230 0% 12% 33% 51% 85%
1741 0% 11% 33% 50% 84%
1747 0% 11% 36% 59% 93%
3244 0% 9% 24% 38% 76%
5553 0% 3% 16% 29% 77%
3314 0% 1% 4% 9% 45%
236 0% 1% 12% 25% 69%
263 0% 0% 5% 12% 47%
316 0% 0% 3% 6% 24%
1071 0% 0% 1% 3% 24%
5460 0% 0% 7% 17% 55%
302 0% 0% 4% 12% 54%
2052 0% 0% 4% 14% 54%
2067 0% 0% 5% 24% 75%
45 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
167 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
333 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
379 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
503 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
910 0% 0% 1% 5% 32%
1023 0% 0% 0% 1% 18%
1025 0% 0% 1% 2% 13%
1555 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1599 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
1718 0% 0% 3% 11% 46%
2175 0% 0% 0% 1% 12%
2265 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
2601 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2638 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%
2826 0% 0% 2% 6% 35%
3082 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3324 0% 0% 0% 1% 6%
4099 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4342 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4384 0% 0% 0% 1% 19%
4607 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4655 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
4814 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4903 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
4976 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5205 0% 0% 0% 4% 21%
5603 0% 0% 1% 2% 27%
5712 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%
5804 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5822 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
5907 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6032 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6175 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6401 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
6933 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7021 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
7103 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
7198 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
7250 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Daly
Number Top 1 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15 Top 24
4539 85% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2767 12% 100% 100% 100% 100%
5561 2% 86% 96% 99% 100%
1629 1% 85% 97% 100% 100%
2877 0% 58% 83% 95% 100%
469 0% 55% 79% 91% 100%
4362 0% 48% 73% 85% 99%
888 0% 44% 66% 79% 98%
27 0% 37% 65% 81% 99%
346 0% 35% 60% 75% 98%
141 0% 35% 62% 82% 99%
1796 0% 26% 51% 72% 98%
2729 0% 24% 49% 66% 96%
401 0% 15% 38% 60% 96%
188 0% 12% 25% 40% 81%
4855 0% 11% 43% 62% 96%
237 0% 10% 27% 45% 93%
4481 0% 6% 18% 27% 67%
1024 0% 5% 16% 26% 69%
5517 0% 2% 12% 22% 77%
245 0% 2% 25% 48% 93%
1189 0% 1% 3% 9% 38%
3539 0% 1% 5% 12% 61%
145 0% 0% 3% 7% 39%
836 0% 0% 1% 3% 24%
3683 0% 0% 3% 8% 49%
33 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
74 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
329 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
337 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
369 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
610 0% 0% 0% 0% 46%
611 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
614 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%
623 0% 0% 0% 1% 12%
663 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
747 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
810 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1076 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1305 0% 0% 1% 5% 40%
1468 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
1739 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2013 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
2170 0% 0% 0% 1% 26%
2512 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
2706 0% 0% 0% 0% 25%
2708 0% 0% 0% 0% 13%
2783 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
3171 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3175 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3236 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
3534 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
3637 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3950 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4027 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4308 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4327 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4466 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4811 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5030 0% 0% 0% 1% 15%
5148 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
5243 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5962 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6753 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
6868 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6964 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7048 0% 0% 0% 1% 14%
7153 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Darwin
Number Top 1 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15 Top 24
56 79% 100% 100% 100% 100%
5406 13% 93% 98% 100% 100%
865 8% 78% 93% 99% 100%
494 0% 77% 95% 100% 100%
177 0% 75% 93% 98% 100%
125 1% 65% 87% 96% 100%
176 0% 52% 83% 95% 100%
3536 0% 44% 75% 90% 100%
2194 0% 42% 72% 88% 100%
234 0% 38% 67% 85% 100%
4946 0% 37% 65% 85% 100%
3542 0% 30% 63% 84% 100%
2337 0% 24% 66% 88% 100%
4028 0% 20% 48% 71% 99%
6869 0% 13% 34% 56% 99%
1391 0% 11% 34% 62% 98%
772 0% 1% 12% 37% 93%
5914 0% 0% 2% 7% 72%
4198 0% 0% 4% 12% 75%
5036 0% 0% 5% 17% 82%
51 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
78 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
111 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
157 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
247 0% 0% 0% 0% 26%
250 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
365 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
548 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
578 0% 0% 1% 4% 65%
857 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
977 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
1018 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
1418 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
1519 0% 0% 1% 10% 75%
1625 0% 0% 1% 5% 58%
1711 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2451 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
2481 0% 0% 0% 0% 2%
2501 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
2791 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
2834 0% 0% 0% 0% 29%
3117 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3130 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3274 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
3461 0% 0% 1% 3% 51%
3504 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3535 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3572 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
3695 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
3844 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4122 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4458 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
4645 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4905 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4917 0% 0% 0% 0% 9%
5234 0% 0% 0% 0% 31%
5339 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5434 0% 0% 0% 0% 12%
5443 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
5492 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5740 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5883 0% 0% 2% 7% 65%
6193 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
6590 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6823 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6936 0% 0% 0% 0% 16%
6947 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7153 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tesla
Number Top 1 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15 Top 24
2056 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
3641 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%
1241 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%
3546 0% 86% 97% 100% 100%
340 0% 81% 94% 98% 100%
2614 0% 76% 94% 99% 100%
5172 0% 46% 80% 91% 100%
3098 0% 41% 76% 89% 100%
85 0% 38% 72% 86% 99%
5567 0% 34% 74% 94% 100%
3667 0% 18% 50% 73% 99%
319 0% 17% 40% 60% 97%
1712 0% 16% 46% 69% 97%
4618 0% 13% 50% 76% 100%
2590 0% 13% 44% 72% 99%
6090 0% 12% 31% 47% 88%
2168 0% 5% 21% 49% 97%
314 0% 2% 12% 26% 83%
291 0% 2% 10% 22% 76%
6077 0% 1% 5% 12% 78%
238 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
321 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
525 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
527 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
533 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
573 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
597 0% 0% 1% 9% 80%
708 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
743 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1073 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1310 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1360 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
1506 0% 0% 0% 0% 40%
1676 0% 0% 1% 2% 25%
1720 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
1729 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1792 0% 0% 0% 0% 12%
2169 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2474 0% 0% 0% 0% 7%
2500 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2609 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
2869 0% 0% 0% 0% 12%
3038 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3197 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3258 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3550 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
3623 0% 0% 0% 1% 16%
3770 0% 0% 1% 12% 83%
4039 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4391 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4472 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
4531 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4678 0% 0% 2% 9% 51%
4680 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4810 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
4939 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5090 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5114 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
5528 0% 0% 0% 0% 13%
5675 0% 0% 0% 0% 16%
5980 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
6574 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
6618 0% 0% 0% 3% 44%
6802 0% 0% 0% 1% 10%
6911 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7068 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7226 0% 0% 0% 3% 58%
7153 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Coincidence…I think NOT!
Fixed it for ya!
I better check my code for a “match 1 seed probability to team number” bug. https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1757614&postcount=28
Here’s a thought for you, Caleb (and anyone playing with the event simulator) - calculate a predicted rank based on the weighted ranking probabilities.
To do this manually, you can use the formula =SUMPRODUCT([team probability range],[ranking row])
e.g.
=SUMPRODUCT(G3:BV3,$G$2:$BV$2)
Then sorting by this formula gives an estimated final ranking.
Number Top 1
5406 2%
Told ya we’d do our part.