District Championship Projections 2022

Now that we’re a decent amount of the way into the season, there’s enough data to take a stab at predicting who’s going to make their district championship events.

Chesapeake
2022chs.pdf (65.5 KB)

Michigan
2022fim.pdf (202.6 KB)

PNW
2022pnw.pdf (69.7 KB)
(Also discussed in this thread:PNW District Championship Projections 2022)

Texas
Note that data is skewed by awards not showing up on The Blue Alliance for the Waco event.
2022fit.pdf (90.1 KB)

Mid-Atlantic
2022fma.pdf (75.0 KB)

North Carolina
2022fnc.pdf (55.7 KB)

Israel
Note that this one is skewed by the fact that some events were half-done which is not properly accounted for.
2022isr.pdf (44.9 KB)

New England
2022ne.pdf (96.2 KB)

Ontario
2022ont.pdf (56.8 KB)

Peachtree
2022pch.pdf (54.1 KB)

I’ve been doing this for some time with pretty good results. Here is the thread from 2019: District Championship Projections 2019

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Did you take a stab at FIN as well, or is it not really worth it with only 1 event to go?

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I believe frclocks.com does this already

http://frclocks.com/

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Just an oversight. Here you go:

Indiana
2022fin.pdf (47.8 KB)

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This is great. Any way to incorporate the data about prequalifying for champs? Idk if any of the other districts are doing this, but ik for New England the top 16 teams before DCMP can bypass it and go straight to worlds to help with the short turn around. I’d love to see what teams are locked in and on track for this.

FRC locks is useful and they keep up to date well. I think they do good work.

There are a couple of reasons you might want to have a look at these numbers though too. The FRC locks methodology is very conservative. For example, right now in Indiana they can only figure out 7 teams that have qualified for the district championship; these calculations can identify 12.
And if you want to book hotel rooms or something it’s really nice to know that you have a 90% chance of going, not just that you’re kind of close to the threshold of making it.

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This is the first I’ve heard of this. I can’t find it in the rule book so I’ll just assume that it works like advancing to a 16-team district championship where the Chairman’s award is ignored. If I run that through I get this:

2022ne_cmp.pdf (92.2 KB)

Looks like you are in good shape.

Thank you! And yeah its 16 teams via district points, then the Chairman’s and EI teams. Only 3 world champs slots will actually be given out at DCMP this year

Holy cow! If you only have 3 teams advancing on points then winning but not getting an invite to the championship is likely.

In a normal district championship (even this year) the entirety of the winning alliance advances to Worlds. Is NE FIRST not doing that since they’re “pre-advancing” 16 of the 25 slots? Or are those the final 3 slots being awards?

I’m honestly not sure.

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I think you misunderstood. 16 points slots from NE will go to championships. They do not skip DCMP. NE has 25 total spots. 3 are chairmans, 3 are winning alliance, 2 are EI, and 1 is rookie all star. That leaves 16 spots for points after DCMP is completed. If what you were saying is true, no one from DCMP would advance to worlds unless they won an award and I highly HIGHLY doubt that is the case.

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@Brandon_L - BriFRC is correct, top 16 after week 6 advance. Not sure how many of the pre-selected 16 will go to Worlds and skip NEDCMP altogether.

Can we post an official source?

For what it’s worth- Bri is correct. This was the information being disseminated to teams at events.

Though, after awhile of trying yesterday, 195 could not locate a hard source for this info available online. We’ve reached out to NE FIRST in an effort to try and get this broadcast to everyone in a much more accessible, clear cut manner.

I have some thoughts on the idea, mostly centered around the now apparent total lack of value to attain from the competition. While i understand the motive w/r/t making travel planning easy, there’s not really much to compete for there anymore. But that’s likely worth another post, in another thread, at another time :man_shrugging:t2:

This is the meeting minutes from the townhall. The #'s are preliminary due to the fact that we didn’t know how many teams would qualify from NE at the time. I don’t remember when it was finalized from 14 to 16, and I could be Mandela Effected to be honest. But the information regarding pre-qualification and skipping DCMP is correct.

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Rad :metal:t2:, thank you.

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It’s come out in various official emails from the NE FIRST staff to lead mentors. I have them all saved somewhere in an email folder. Top 16 teams based on district points after week 6 pre-qualify for Houston and can skip DCMP if they choose. The DCMP culture awards (CA/EI/RAS) will also pre-qualify after week 6. There will be three open spots of NE’s 25 for Houston that will be decided after DCMP, and that will be based on ranking in district points (not the winning alliance) just as in every past year. If any of the prequalified teams choose to not go to Houston, the invitations proceed down the district ranking list in order.

(edited to add that I didn’t mean to make this a reply directly to @BriFRC - she’s well aware of all this already!)

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Thank you! I don’t get the lead mentor emails, so I oftentimes only get fragments or things second hand. Good to know I’m not imagining things.

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(Now that we’re halfway to week 6, it might be nice to have an official summary from NE FIRST on their website for teams looking for reminders of how the advancement system works in our district this year)

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