District Championship Projections 2023

It’s easy to look up district point totals, but what does that mean in terms of qualifying for the district championship? Here’s a stab at projecting every district championship, and worlds qualification for district teams.

Chesapeake
2023chs.html.zip (6.6 KB)

Michigan
2023fim.html.zip (18.0 KB)

PNW
2023pnw.html.zip (6.9 KB)

Peachtree
2023pch.html.zip (6.1 KB)

Ontario
2023ont.html.zip (6.6 KB)

New England
2023ne.html.zip (9.0 KB)

Israel
Not much of a prediction, since all the qualifying events are done so early.
2023isr.html.zip (3.7 KB)

North Carolina
2023fnc.html.zip (5.4 KB)

Mid-Atlantic
2023fma.html.zip (6.7 KB)

Texas
2023fit.html.zip (8.6 KB)

Indiana
2023fin.html.zip (4.6 KB)

And here’s some of the data in a spreadsheet format meant to be machine readable:
results.xlsx (39.4 KB)

This is done using the same methodology as in previous years, which has worked pretty well. Here’s last year’s for example:

7 Likes

PNW
2023pnw.html.zip (7.0 KB)

Peachtree
2023pch.html.zip (6.1 KB)

Ontario
2023ont.html.zip (7.0 KB)

New England
2023ne.html.zip (9.2 KB)

Israel
2023isr.html.zip (3.8 KB)

North Carolina
2023fnc.html.zip (5.3 KB)

Mid-Atlantic
2023fma.html.zip (7.1 KB)

Texas
2023fit.html.zip (8.8 KB)

Indiana
2023fin.html.zip (4.7 KB)

Michigan
2023fim.html.zip (17.6 KB)

Chesapeake
2023chs.html.zip (6.7 KB)

Spreadsheet meant to be machine-readable:
results.xlsx (39.3 KB)

6 Likes

How does the remaining # of event effect the PDCMP? There are quite a few of good teams that still have 1 more event to go. The teams that are on the edge are the ones that probably have more changes to get knock out of the DCMP.

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Are the points to go to CMP already tripled?

Doesn’t seem to be considering most are in the triple digits.

There are Rookie All-Star winning teams that show a 0% chance of going to DCMP.

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I believe rookie all star only qualifies for awards participation at district champs, not full competition participation.

2 Likes

Ah, 11.8.2 D. You are correct.

It effects the number of points that they’re expected to have to qualify for the district championship. This can have a pretty dramatic effect. So for example:

Scenario 1: The cutoff for the DCMP is estimated to be between 58-62 points. Team A has earned a total of 57 points and has no more counting events to play. They won’t make the cutoff (unless there are declines) and P(DCMP) will be set to 0.

Scenario 2: Same except the team has one more event to play. In this case, the team has to earn somewhere between 1 and 5 points at their next event to qualify. Because earning that many points is quite likely, the P(DCMP) will be high.

I’m not quite sure what you mean, but if you mean increasing the value of points earned at DCMP events then the answer is yes. This is why the estimates for the point cutoffs for CMP are typically like 2.5x as high as the cutoff for the district championship events rather than just 50% higher.

And I’m not quite sure how a typical number of points to make the championship could be anything other than in the triple digits without rule changes.

1 Like

Thought so, thank you! This sheet is awesome by the way :smiley:

1 Like

PNW
2023pnw.html.zip (6.8 KB)

Peachtree
2023pch.html.zip (5.8 KB)

Ontario
2023ont.html.zip (7.0 KB)

New England
2023ne.html.zip (9.1 KB)

Israel
2023isr.html.zip (3.1 KB)

North Carolina
2023fnc.html.zip (4.4 KB)

Mid-Atlantic
2023fma.html.zip (7.2 KB)

Texas
2023fit.html.zip (8.7 KB)

Indiana
2023fin.html.zip (4.6 KB)

Michigan
2023fim.html.zip (17.6 KB)

Chesapeake
2023chs.html.zip (5.6 KB)

Spreadsheet meant to be machine-readable:
results.xlsx (37.8 KB)

12 Likes

Thanks for doing these again! love looking at these

Why does it list, for FMA, 2539 in 11th even though they have two essentially perfect events?

Or is it just sorting by pdcmp with no tiebreaker sort so it just ends up wherever

I don’t make this but it looks like 3314, 1923, 2495 and 316 are at the top because they have been 100% with their scores for the longest without updating (as in they qualified via points at their first event and have not played their second) so they are at the top of the 100% qualified club because their scores have gone the longest without being updated.

The next group 11, 1403, 1712, 2590, 56, and 321 are the Impact award winners so they are qualified via award merit to get to 100%.

Within the groups they are sorted by likelihood to qualify for champs which is why 2539 is top of the 2 event 100% group.

I think

Question for you…I know you are busy, I checked your schedule…This last sheet…is it a guesstimate for week 6…or just after this last week’s fun and festivities? Just curious…

It’s doing a sort by P(DCMP) and then by P(CMP). The confusing part is that this is done on floating point numbers before rounding for display. I should probably do this in the opposite order.

In other words, because the program is not perfectly precise, when a team is listed as 100%, internally the program likely thinks the odds are something like .9999999 or 1.0000001. The award winners tend to get grouped together because their odds are literally just set to 1 without doing floating point math.

1 Like

I’m not sure that I fully understand your question, but I’ll try to answer anyway.

The spreadsheet is literally just aggregating the P(DCMP) column that appears in the web pages so that you don’t have to parse the HTML if you want to reuse the data.

The predictions are made using data from all of the weeks, and make predictions about both advancing to district championships, and from there to worlds. It does happen that almost all the district championships are week 6 this year.

Is Lakeview #2 calculated in the FIM projections?

Yes.

You can verify this by:

  1. Choosing a team that should have earned points at the event
  2. Find their row
  3. Find the second to last column, labeled “Played”.
  4. See how many numbers are listed.

I think I should mention that I’m not taking into account the number of teams that decline their invitations. If I was trying to guess which teams would be most likely to get a last minute invitation due to someone else not going, it would be someone ranked right around where you are.

By the way, what did you think of the event ending on a Monday?

Thank you so much, somehow I mis-read the “Played” column as having a decimal between the two numbers so I thought there was only one event there.

The Monday ending was more tiring for me personally because I am used to having a day to recover before needing to go back to work. However, I can’t complain compared to the amazing folks who ran the two events back to back.

Overall, I actually think it worked really well. The minor critiques I’d have are:

  1. There was some loss of momentum with a few of my students. Having the first day on Friday gets them all pumped up. With them going home and waiting until Sunday to start, there was less excitement to start that day.
  2. It gave my less motivated students an easier way to skip out of competition. I personally can’t understand why anyone would skip competition but we always have some who do.
  3. The Monday finish really meant missing TWO days of school because we had a high percentage of students not come on Tuesday. (Honestly, understandable.)
  4. We had fewer families able to be there for the playoffs since it was a work day.

That being said, I would do another Saturday to Monday event but it would not be my first choice.

Thanks for your work compiling the stats – much appreciated!