District Championship Projections 2023

It’s easy to look up district point totals, but what does that mean in terms of qualifying for the district championship? Here’s a stab at projecting every district championship, and worlds qualification for district teams.

Chesapeake
2023chs.html.zip (6.6 KB)

Michigan
2023fim.html.zip (18.0 KB)

PNW
2023pnw.html.zip (6.9 KB)

Peachtree
2023pch.html.zip (6.1 KB)

Ontario
2023ont.html.zip (6.6 KB)

New England
2023ne.html.zip (9.0 KB)

Israel
Not much of a prediction, since all the qualifying events are done so early.
2023isr.html.zip (3.7 KB)

North Carolina
2023fnc.html.zip (5.4 KB)

Mid-Atlantic
2023fma.html.zip (6.7 KB)

Texas
2023fit.html.zip (8.6 KB)

Indiana
2023fin.html.zip (4.6 KB)

And here’s some of the data in a spreadsheet format meant to be machine readable:
results.xlsx (39.4 KB)

This is done using the same methodology as in previous years, which has worked pretty well. Here’s last year’s for example:

6 Likes

PNW
2023pnw.html.zip (7.0 KB)

Peachtree
2023pch.html.zip (6.1 KB)

Ontario
2023ont.html.zip (7.0 KB)

New England
2023ne.html.zip (9.2 KB)

Israel
2023isr.html.zip (3.8 KB)

North Carolina
2023fnc.html.zip (5.3 KB)

Mid-Atlantic
2023fma.html.zip (7.1 KB)

Texas
2023fit.html.zip (8.8 KB)

Indiana
2023fin.html.zip (4.7 KB)

Michigan
2023fim.html.zip (17.6 KB)

Chesapeake
2023chs.html.zip (6.7 KB)

Spreadsheet meant to be machine-readable:
results.xlsx (39.3 KB)

5 Likes

How does the remaining # of event effect the PDCMP? There are quite a few of good teams that still have 1 more event to go. The teams that are on the edge are the ones that probably have more changes to get knock out of the DCMP.

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Are the points to go to CMP already tripled?

Doesn’t seem to be considering most are in the triple digits.

There are Rookie All-Star winning teams that show a 0% chance of going to DCMP.

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I believe rookie all star only qualifies for awards participation at district champs, not full competition participation.

2 Likes

Ah, 11.8.2 D. You are correct.

It effects the number of points that they’re expected to have to qualify for the district championship. This can have a pretty dramatic effect. So for example:

Scenario 1: The cutoff for the DCMP is estimated to be between 58-62 points. Team A has earned a total of 57 points and has no more counting events to play. They won’t make the cutoff (unless there are declines) and P(DCMP) will be set to 0.

Scenario 2: Same except the team has one more event to play. In this case, the team has to earn somewhere between 1 and 5 points at their next event to qualify. Because earning that many points is quite likely, the P(DCMP) will be high.

I’m not quite sure what you mean, but if you mean increasing the value of points earned at DCMP events then the answer is yes. This is why the estimates for the point cutoffs for CMP are typically like 2.5x as high as the cutoff for the district championship events rather than just 50% higher.

And I’m not quite sure how a typical number of points to make the championship could be anything other than in the triple digits without rule changes.

1 Like

Thought so, thank you! This sheet is awesome by the way :smiley:

1 Like