I don’t have time to look at the data right now, I’ve got crate supplies and shipping arrangements since our team earned a spot at CMP due to how the district system takes a larger number of overall top performers and not just the winners of an event or qualifying award. The top teams for each of our 4 years in the district system have varied significantly. Yes there are a handful of teams that have made it each year, several who have made it more than once and a number of teams that have made it only one of those 4 years.
At our first event we were the first pick of the finalist alliance. Had it been a Regional that wouldn’t have meant much being a week 1 event there wouldn’t have been a wild card for us. However in the district system we ended the event with 49 points thanks to on the field performance and winning an award. That was enough to set the wheels in motion for reserving hotel rooms at DCMP and CMP since the number of points needed in the past has been around 60 and 120 respectively. At our second event we were again a first round pick but failed to move past the QF round as it was one of the toughest in our area this year. However at that event we managed to get another 26 points thanks to winning an award. With that 75 point total we were solidly above the expected cutoff so we finalized our DCMP plans at the end of week 4.
At DCMP we ended up the 25th seed and were not picked, nor were a lot of teams that seeded above us. (I didn’t understand a lot of the picks that were made this year). But again thanks to winning an award we picked up enough points to qualify for DCMP.
It is also important to note the effect of the district system on the CMP lottery. Since it is known exactly how many teams will qualify for CMP by earning it at DCMP the lottery winners can be notified much earlier. This is because at a Regional there is always a question whether a given event will generate a wild card that can not be used or if a team will decline their CMP invite. Those early lottery awards also mean that more teams will be able to go on merit. In the PNW district since the implementation of early lottery announcements there have been a number of teams who earned a spot that was then passed to the next highest point earning team. If you look at the PNW this year the top 39 teams are advancing despite the fact that 2 teams won a qualifying award placed outside of the top 39.
Long term what I’d like to see is the lottery system move from the HQ level to the District level. So as an example the PNW district has 45 teams attending CMP, our 39 allotment and 6 who accepted their lottery spot, however it is my understanding that there is at least 1 team that did not accept their win.
So my proposal would be that FIRST sets their desired ratio of lottery to qualifying teams and lets the district run the lottery locally. That would mean once the entry into the lottery is closed those spots could be awarded. One other change I would advocate for with this plan is that you would not be eligible to enter the lottery if you have attended in either of the two most recent years.