Quite the opposite, actually. By isolating, we’re reducing the number of people that get infected now, slowing the rate at which people gain immunity. Without social isolation, the virus would burn through the population, overwhelm the health care industry. We’d have a horrible month or two with a huge body count, but then it would be over as everyone would have caught it and gained immunity that way. So, it’s a trade off - prolonging the duration in exchange for saving lives, with the hope of a vaccine eventually providing her immunity instead of having everyone eventually catch it.
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…assuming that immunity works the way it does with many other viruses. I believe that is still under study.
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And the whole RNA based virus mutating into something worse with high infection thing.
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I don’t think the conventional thinking of 10 x 10 pits, teams bringing 50+ people, teams traveling around the world/country etc… will happen like we’re used to.
I think smaller event sizes, larger pit areas, hard limits on physical attendees per team, semi-mandatory volunteering from teams, discouraging vulnerable people from participation, etc… could be the “new normal”. I won’t be surprised to see champs either cancelled or tentative for 2021; but I think we’re going to be playing a new game year under much different conditions.
The next 12-18 months is going to be weird until a vaccine comes out. I just think the reality is schools are going to re-open in the fall, people are going back to work, sports and clubs are going to start up again, and we’re going to be living in a world where we society accepts some amount of death and illness until a vaccine comes out (assuming one does).
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One thing I didn’t see mentioned in the President’s plan was international travel restrictions, which are obviously a national-level issue so they can’t really be done based on which phase a given state or region is in. If there are still significant international travel restrictions in the US as of next year (which granted, is a long time away, but likely still no vaccine at that point), it would be impossible to have a world championship as we know it.
Likewise, unless the entire country is at a Level Three as of Feb/March 2021, there are going to be some areas where competitions will be delayed or unable to move forward, which will put us right back in the scenario of how to handle worlds advancement with a patchwork of some events happening, some not, etc.
There are actually serious questions as to whether that’s the case with SARS-CoV-2. The studies that are taking place now seem to show that reinfection is possible, i.e., that antibodies to the virus may not be sufficient to prevent reinfection or that the antibodies are too short-lived in their effects. This would not be out of line with how other corona viruses behave. Right now we just don’t know enough to think that we can build up a herd immunity that will prevent the kind of transmission and infection cycle that we’re seeing now, with the resulting death toll (which has run almost 4% in the US.) So social distancing is, in fact, our best current defense against repeated overwhelming waves of infection that will grind our healthcare system to a halt and result in even higher death rates as treatment is necessarily rationed to those with the best chances of survival. That is exactly what we need to prevent, so unless and until we know that herd immunity can be built up in the right way or we develop an effective vaccine, we’re stuck where we are.
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Going to be tough to make event finances work if there’s a significant chance they’ll be canceled. That’s not a risk you can insure away
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FRC events are one of the highest contact things you can have. 7-8 people in a 8x8 or 10x10 box, all sharing tools and being in super close proximity for up to 3-4 days.
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This. FRC events are as bad as concerts with mosh pits with respect to interpersonal contact. I’d even be in favor of not holding competitions for a while after an “official phase 3 declaration.” Nothing coming out of the White House can be trusted under this administration, and this is definitely a “better safe than sorry” situation.
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Not to derail this conversation, but I don’t think this is the time or place for politics. Where the statement you made was true or not, by bringing any sort of political leanings into a scientific discussion is bound to lead people to think with emotions rather than logic, which is not how we can approach this serious issue.
I understand tensions are running high and everyone is mad about the situation in some way, but taking jabs at anyone is going to lead to a polarization rather than unity. In a time when people are further apart then ever before, we need to be able to come together.
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I wholeheartedly agree. This entire thing is so unpredictable. I feel like we shouldn’t be focusing on what is out of our hands right now, but instead focus on what we can do for each other and ourselves (for example self-care, safely helping our communities, and finding ways to reconnect digitally with our teams).
(Also, sorry if this is slightly off topic as well. I just felt that this needed to be said.)
Even if we had a vaccine and we were able to have events, im sure the number of participants would be way down than what they usually are, especially for lower end teams. Thousands of people have lost their jobs due to this pandemic. People will no longer have hundreds of dollars to spend to go to a competition (for teams whose members pay for their own travel etc). Some of the smaller, more local sponsors that some teams had probably won’t be able to give as much, if any at all. The hard truth is that people wont be able to afford competition. It doesn’t make sense to rush back into things, especially when the situation is still so unknown, and so many people may be struggling financially.
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Yes! My employer, has laid off about 6000 of their 24000 employees. They have also put strict spending limits in place. The $70 Purchase Request I submitted last week for parts to repair some equipment has been postponed until we need to use that piece of equipment. I highly doubt they will be providing any sponsorship money in the near future. 
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