Faith in Statistics or Play it safe?

You are in the finals of the Curie division. Blue Alliance consists of an aggressive alliance where BlueBot1 is a Scorer, BlueBot2 is a scorer, and BlueBot3 is a double robot lift at twelve inches. Red Alliance’s is a bit more defensive with RedBot1 a scorer, Redbot2 a hybrid scorer/defense robot, and Redbot3 a double robot lift at twelve inches. With thirty seconds left to go the rack has six red tubes and seven blue tubes with two spoilers placed already and two on the floor. Red Alliance has a very poor scoring percentage and with Redbot1’s main manipulator dysfunctional after a minute and a half Red Alliance is left with two defense bots and one bad scorer. With fifteen seconds left to go BlueBot2 boards BlueBot3 in its home alliance and RedBot1 boards RedBot3 in its home alliance. Also at fifteen seconds both teams have seven ringers on the rack in 2 rows (one for the Blue Alliance and one for the Red Alliance). Now a two foot distance lies from the RedBot2 to the rack hoping that this time after many failed attempts the ringer makes it on. After statistics showing that RedBot2 only places one ringer in every seven attempts, what does BlueBot2 do? Bluebot2 does not have a ringer near by and it would take 10 seconds to pick up the ringer and get to the eighth spider leg.

  • Have faith in the statistics:
    Climb BlueBot3 because statistics show RedBot2 will probably not make it and start getting ready Einstein, but still keeping in mind the risk that if RedBot2 scores than it is all over for the Blue Alliance.
  • Play it safe:
    Play defense and stop RedBot2 from scoring, and prepare for round 4.

Explain your decision BlueBot2.

Pavan.

It depends on whether I think that I the blue alliance or the red alliance is better. If the red alliance is the better alliance but did not do well due to their arm breaking the blue alliance should take the risk. If the blue alliance believes that they are better and can win they should play defense knowing they can win in the next game.

But the real question is why doesn’t the blue team put their own ring on the rack if that is worth more than ramping?

The real answer would come from how much time is left in the match. If RedBot2 only scores 1 in 7 tubes, but they can make one attempt every five seconds, and if there is 35 seconds left in the game you can almost be assured they will make it on. (Although it is not guaranteed.)

Since there are 30 seconds left in the match, that leaves 30 seconds for RedBot2 to place the tube, which will result in a combined probability of 6 in 7 that they will score it. Since the only robot left on the blue alliance is BlueBot1 and that is a primarily offensive robot, I would send BlueBot1 out and get a tube, and instead of them playing active defense I would play proactive defense and have BlueBot1 score the tube where RedBot2 is trying to place theirs.

Or… I know this isn’t one of the original choices, but since BlueBot1 is a offensive scorer, even easier they can go out, grab one of the spoilers from the floor, and take one tube off Red’s row. If RedBot2 did score, then there should be a dead tie for the match, but by spoiling one tube from Red’s row regardless of where you put it, the match is now in favor of Blue, and Blue heads off for Einstein.

I’d defend just because going to 4 matches is so much more exciting that 3.

But more seriously, it also depends on if I think Blueabot2 has a decent chance to score in 5 seconds. If they do, spend the 10 seconds getting a ringer and getting to the spider leg. This leaves a few possible outcomes:

  1. both robots score their ringers. Tie game, 4th match
  2. Redabot scores its ringer, Blueabot doesn’t. Red wins.
  3. Redabot doesn’t score, Blueabot does, Blue wins
  4. neither scores, Tie game, 4th match

this leaves blue in a much better position than red, assuming blue has a better shot at scoring in 5 seconds than red does in 15. This is a big assumption, but may be correct depending on the situation.

It really depends on which robot has a more powerful drivetrain. If BlueBot2 does not have a good chance of pushing out RedBot2, it should either attempt to score or place a spoiler on the Red alliance’s row. After all, BlueBot2 is primarily a scorer.

Going on the ramp should actually be the last thing BlueBot2 should do, since placing another ringer is going to yield 128 points as opposed to 30.

I’d like to briefly point out that this post is no where near the intended purpose of the YMTC forum. YMTC is supposed to be about questions arising from ambiguities in the rules. Posts should posit situations that have questionable interpretations under the rules to engender discussion of said rules and improve our understanding of the rules. This is simply a strategy decision and has nothing to do with the rules. As such, it would make more sense simple placed in the main Rules/Strategy forum.

Correct, this thread should be moved.

To your poorly worder and confusing situation: I say score till the end, always.

Ask and Ye shall receive

he said that there are two spoilers on the rack, but where, why not put the ball in there court, then, let them make a derision, try and stop you from putting on a spoiler, or try to get that last red ringer on.

if the blue team is aggressive, than thats exactly what i would do, im a aggressive type of guy.

Is this the first match of the round? The last?

If it’s the last, or even possibly the last with a blue loss, I play for a tie. I’m HUGE on favoring statistics, but even a 1/7 chance of filling that row to end that finals is worth defending, no matter what the cost.

However, if blue alliance is ahead or in the first match of a round which they feel strongly about being able to win, stick with the stats. Even if they make it, you’re not out yet, and you can adjust.