Instead, on the pointer from Chris, I will grab 1730 for 503
Best teams not selected (and teams I would want if I can join back in): 503, 1018 and 537…2775 would have been easily the best team not picked.
The three favorites to win: Vikesrock (1114 and 71 is probably enough but 234 was a steal), JackN (1625 would have been #2 on my list, and 70 should be picked atleast as a backup) and IKE (16 is a beast, and 111 has had a ton of time to perfect their grabber and kicker). There are a couple of teams that have better first two picks, but I think the key is finding a 3rd robot that has a good chance to get picked and hopefully win as a 3rd/backup.
Vikesrock…1114…71…234
Basel A…67…573…1501
Chris is me…33…1714…51
Alex Cormier…469…1538…118
Akash Rastogi…294…1519…1058
Koko Ed…1718…2949…980
bobwrit…217…399…171
rtfgnow…2056…343…868
JackN…1625…330…70
jblay…107…135…292
Jamie Kalb…910…2337…2771
hill…359…3138…1730
James1902…48…68…829
TheNotoriousLB…832…888…141
dodar…1592…1732…2775
sgreco…1086…233…830
EricH…2481…148…1902
IKE…16…111…2062
ericgehrken…116…45…93
TEAMS:
393 461 494
503 537 1018 1024 1038
1094 1108 1327 1477 1529
1640 1646 1675 1720 1741 1747
2081 2171 2194 2826 3176
]Vikesrock…1114…71…234
Basel A…67…573…1501
Chris is me…33…1714…51
Alex Cormier…469…1538…118
Akash Rastogi…294…1519…1058
Koko Ed…1718…2949…980
bobwrit…217…399…171
rtfgnow…2056…343…868
JackN…1625…330…70
jblay…107…135…292
Jamie Kalb…910…2337…2771
hill…359…3138…1730
James1902…48…68…829
TheNotoriousLB…832…888…141
dodar…1592…1732…2775
sgreco…1086…233…830
EricH…2481…148…1902
IKE…16…111…2062
ericgehrken…116…45…93
XaulZan11…494…1018…537
TEAMS:
393 461
503 1024 1038
1094 1108 1327 1477 1529
1640 1646 1675 1720 1741 1747
2081 2171 2194 2826 3176
I would strongly suggest that one of you pick up 3176.
Well there’s a team the folks who ditched the draft can pick up if they want.
Disclaimer: This is only for fun
I thought it might be fun to compare how I would have drafted in each one of the positions versus the actual draft.
OK, here is a comparison according to my pick list:
Draw………………………………………………………………………… Theo * IER * Ratio
Vikesrock…1114…71…234…………… 168 * 193 * 1.15
Basel A…67…573…1501………… 167 * 194 * 1.16
Chris is me…33…1714…51……………… 166 * 195 * 1.17
Alex Cormier…469…1538…118……… 165 * 176 * 1.07
Akash Rastogi…294…1519…1058……… 164 * 205 * 1.25
Koko Ed…1718…2949…980……… 163 * 131 * 0.80
bobwrit…217…399…1 71………… 162 * 117 * 0.72
rtfgnow…2056…343… .868……. 161 * 173 * 1.07
JackN…1625…330… …70……… 160 * 191 * 1.19
jblay…107…135…2 92…………… 159 * 82 * 0.52
Jamie Kalb…910…2337…2771……. 158 * 179 * 1.13
hill…359…3138… …1730…… 157 * 142 * 0.90
James1902…48…68…8 29……… 156 * 54 * 0.35
TheNotoriousLB…832…888…141………… 155 * 78 * 0.50
dodar…1592…1732… …2775… 154 * 107 * 0.69 Is 2775 going?
sgreco…1086…233… …830…… 153 * 185 * 1.21
EricH…2481…148… …1902…… 152 * 158 * 1.04
IKE…16…111… .2062……… 151 * 201 * 1.33
ericgehrken…116…45… 93………… 150 * 73 * 0.49
XaulZan11…494…1018…5 37……… 69 * 93 * 1.35
So, here is how my comparison worked. I took the picking order and assigned a theoretical scoring. #1 pick worth 81, #2 worth 80…down the line. Adding those up is the theoretical scoring each drafter could get (theo). I then assigned my picklist to be “the key” as I had ranked teams 1-81. I gave my #1 81 points, and so on and so forth. I then summed the scores relative to the order I would have picked things. Naturally since I am grading against my own curve, I should have a score of 1.0 or higher (assuming somone chooses off picks earlier in the draft). Please take this little comparison with a giant grain of salt.
So by the looks of it, Akash has the best picks of all getting what I felt were first round picks for all three of his. I have a really good feeling about my picks.
Biggest bargains I felt were 330 and 1058.
Note: If 2775 is going, then Dodar should have about an extra 60 or so points, but I thought they had dropped from the IRI roster.
Note2: My picks were largely (though not exclusively) based off of OPR. Many teams recieved what I felt was a proper boost due to unusual playing styles (2337 was one of them). I have a feeling bots like 2337 will fair very well at an event with the depth like the IRI. That being said, it is an off-season, so relying heavily on “in-season” data is not always a strong bet.
Note2: My picks were largely (though not exclusively) based off of OPR. Many teams recieved what I felt was a proper boost due to unusual playing styles (2337 was one of them). I have a feeling bots like 2337 will fair very well at an event with the depth like the IRI. That being said, it is an off-season, so relying heavily on “in-season” data is not always a strong bet.
PS. 2775 isn’t attending.
Since 2775 isnt going = i guess i’ll take 1038
So IKE, do you think you could do that list over again with my change with 2775 and 1038
Draw………………………………………………………………………… Theo * IER * Ratio
dodar…1592…1732… …1038… 154 * 145 * 0.94
I would welcome others to do similar analysis. Its fun to see how your picks would have stacked up. I will looking into old FF threads to see who were the solid predicters.
]Vikesrock…1114…71…234
Basel A…67…573…1501
Chris is me…33…1714…51
Alex Cormier…469…1538…118
Akash Rastogi…294…1519…1058
Koko Ed…1718…2949…980
bobwrit…217…399…171
rtfgnow…2056…343…868
JackN…1625…330…70
jblay…107…135…292
Jamie Kalb…910…2337…2771
hill…359…3138…1730
James1902…48…68…829
TheNotoriousLB…832…888…141
dodar…1592…1732…1038
sgreco…1086…233…830
EricH…2481…148…1902
IKE…16…111…2062
ericgehrken…116…45…93
XaulZan11…494…1018…537
TEAMS:
393 461
503 1024
1094 1108 1327 1477 1529
1640 1646 1675 1720 1741 1747
2081 2171 2194 2826 3176
I used OPR to rank the draft, and then adjusted the list heavily from personal experience. I think it is much more useful for finding diamonds in the rough than ranking entire teams this year.
Same thing based on my list (pre Dewalt sub):
Vikesrock 168 180 1.071428571
Basel A 167 182 1.089820359
Chris is me 166 207 1.246987952
Alex Corimer 165 191 1.157575758
Akash Rastogi 164 214 1.304878049
Koko Ed 163 124 0.760736196
bobwrit 162 109 0.672839506
rtfgnow 161 171 1.062111801
JackN 160 199 1.24375
jblay 159 87 0.547169811
Jamie Kalb 158 167 1.056962025
hill 157 159 1.012738854
James1902 156 53 0.33974359
TheNotoriousLB 155 82 0.529032258
dodar 154 159 1.032467532
sgreco 153 191 1.248366013
EricH 152 149 0.980263158
IKE 151 184 1.218543046
ericgehrken 150 68 0.453333333
XaulZan11 69 90 1.304347826
I thought that for the IRI, non Midwest teams had a higher risk factor than Midwest teams. I effectively had two spots in the draft with some restrictions and comments from Akash, so I gave Akash high risk high reward picks while I was sure to pick 3 teams that use veteran drivers that take the IRI extremely seriously.
I used a somewhat different approach. I assigned the number system, but backwards, giving #1 pick 1 point. Each person wanted to accumulate the least # of points. Their theoretical yield was divided by their actual yield. That means the higher the ratio, the better.
Here’s the ratios:
Vikesrock: 1.56
Basel A: 2.08
Chrisisme: 1.21
Alex Cormier: 1.27
Akash Rastogi: 1.21
Koko Ed: 0.70
bobwrit: 0.88
rtfgnow: .87
JackN: 2.26
jblay: 0.51
Jamie Kalb: 1.51
hill: 0.92
James1902: 0.60
TheNotoriousLB: .57
dodar: 0.98
sgreco: 1.52
EricH: 1.07
IKE: 1.67
ericgehrken: 0.74
XaulZan11: 1.09
JackN actually scored better than I did with the steal of the night, 330. In many cases people had third picks that I didn’t agree with, which bombed some scores. By-and-large this system has larger margins of difference between similar people than the other system.
Ranking based on average regular-season FF scores (Note that this does include awards, which are not given out nearly as much at IRI):
Player…Picks…Sum of averages…Outcome
Vikesrock…1114…71…234…230.5…1
Basel A…67…573…1501…189.5…8
Chris is me…33…1714…51…207…4
Alex Cormier…469…1538…118…221.4…3
Akash Rastogi…294…1519…1058…192…7
Koko Ed…1718…2949…980…147.8…14
bobwrit…217…399…171…156.7…12
rtfgnow…2056…343…868…203…6
JackN…1625…330…70…188.1…9
jblay…107…135…292…65.2…19
Jamie Kalb…910…2337…2771…124.5…15
hill…359…3138…1730…205.8…5
James1902…48…68…829…53.4…20
TheNotoriousLB…832…888…141…92.5…16
dodar…1592…1732…1038…165.8…10
sgreco…1086…233…830…158.4…11
EricH…2481…148…1902…223…2
IKE…16…111…2062…153.7…13
ericgehrken…116…45…93…77.7…18
XaulZan11…494…1018…537…90.0…17
Yes, this is based on actual numbers from the 2010 regular season, including the Championship. As noted, the average scores do include awards; rankings are based on the sum of the average scores.
What I did was take each team and added their wins and total matches and then calculated their winning percentages
Vikesrock…1114…71…234 = 73%
Basel A…67…573…1501 = 77%
Chris is me…33…1714…51 = 65%
Alex Cormier…469…1538…118 = 67%
Akash Rastogi…294…1519…1058 = 70%
Koko Ed…1718…2949…980 = 63%
bobwrit…217…399…1 71 = 67%
rtfgnow…2056…343… .868 = ** 73%**
JackN…1625…330… …70 = 71%
jblay…107…135…2 92 = 48%
Jamie Kalb…910…2337…2771 = 56%
hill…359…3138… …1730 = 68%
James1902…48…68…8 29 = 42%
TheNotoriousLB…832…888…141 = 40%
dodar…1592…1732… …1038 = 68%
sgreco…1086…233… …830 = 67%
EricH…2481…148… …1902 = 73%
IKE…16…111… .2062 = 67%
ericgehrken…116…45… 93 = 49%
XaulZan11…494…1018…5 37 = 47%
Funny story about my alliance. I knew I was going to be gone last night during picking and I didn’t really want to actually go through the process of making a list. So I told my mom and dad to come up with a list of teams and that they could make my picks for me. They came up with a list and I give minimal input on it (we disagreed a little between picks 30-40 on the list). My mom was informing me of her alliance and I thought she was joking. So I can’t take any credit on stealing 330, since I didn’t actually make my picks.
hahaha Picone! nice pickss
Fantasy FIRST: Fun for the whole family.
]Vikesrock…1114…71…234
Basel A…67…573…1501
Chris is me…33…1714…51
Alex Cormier…469…1538…118
Akash Rastogi…294…1519…1058
Koko Ed…1718…2949…980
bobwrit…217…399…1 71
rtfgnow…2056…343… .868
JackN’s MOM…1625…330… …70
jblay…107…135…2 92
Jamie Kalb…910…2337…2771
hill…359…3138… …1730
James1902…48…68…8 29
TheNotoriousLB…832…888…141
dodar…1592…1732… …1038
sgreco…1086…233… …830
EricH…2481…148… …1902
IKE…16…111… .2062
ericgehrken…116…45… 93
XaulZan11…494…1018…5 37
TEAMS:
393 461
503 1024
1094 1108 1327 1477 1529
1640 1646 1675 1720 1741 1747
2081 2171 2194 2826 3176
There I fixed it!
Yeah… It’s a new low to lose to a mom…