FRC Mafia 3 Game Thread


#1021

Haven’t updated today but it is up to date as of last night


#1022

*I think


#1023

Currently on Day 4?


#1024

thats what i think


#1025

Aww so sweet I feel the love :heart: /s


#1026

Warning: very long post ahead!

Aside from that, here’s some observations about @MarkCangile (rest in peace) and his voting patterns (this is from my own spreadsheet, so feel free to fact-check me on this). Anyways, here I go.

Note: Column order is name, voted for, voted against, role, other notes.

Day 1:

From this we can infer that @Pooja_Anil, @waxton, or @amanjaiman were not the subject of the night 0 check. Additionally, most people who play as Town Cop normally check people they’re suspicious of. Which makes sense, if you think about it. Reading back on his posts from Day 1,
he voted for @waxton was because of this post:

Pooja_Anil was voted for randomly…

…until he wasn’t.

He also was strongly against voting out Rival, presumably because he had intent to investigate him.

@EricKline agreed:

As did @ash4fun (rest in peace):

Which led to MarkCangile’s vote on /amanjaiman:

From this we can reasonably infer that out of the three people MarkCangile voted for, @Pooja_Anil and @waxton were people he was legitimately suspicious of, and @amanjaiman was to save @Rival.

And that’s only Day 1. On to Day 2!


#1027

Note: Column order is name, voted for, voted against, role, and other notes.

Day 2 observations about @MarkCangile:

We can infer from this that MarkCangile did not investigate @waxton during night 1, since he voted for @waxton but later rescinded his vote. Interestingly enough, he also did not immediately come forth with a vote, which would likely be indicative that he had found a Mafia.

My logic is now as follows:

  1. MarkCangile was suspicious of @Pooja_Anil and @waxton (and @amanjaiman, but not as much)
  2. MarkCangile likely did not find a Mafia, as he did not strongly push to vote somebody out.
  3. It is probable that @waxton was not the subject of MarkCangile’s investigation, as he was voted for but later unvoted for by MarkCangile.
  4. It is probable that MarkCangile investigated @Pooja_Anil, since he did not investigate @waxton and @waxton & @Pooja_Anil were people he was suspicious of.
  5. Therefore, it is likely, but not certain that @Pooja_Anil is not a member of the Mafia.

Additionally, in the early discussion about the Cop revealing, MarkCangile was against jailing the cop for protection (and transitively, the Cop revealing):

Given that MarkCangile was the Cop, it’s reasonable to assume that was the strategy that he was taking.

Then the following exchange that led to MarkCangile voting for @waxton occurred:

WIFOM, by the way, is short for Wine In Front Of Me (a reference to The Princess Bride, by the way). It essentially is attempting to determine if a player made an optimal and expected choice or a suboptimal and unexpected choice.

From this exchange, @MarkCangile is clearly suspicious of @waxton, but not necessarily because of investigation results. Additionally, it becomes quite clear that he did not investigate @waxton

If he had investigated @waxton and found him to be a member of the mafia, then how could you have any stronger evidence? Furthermore, this also tells us that MarkCangile did not investigate @gellnick, otherwise he would’ve voted for @gellnick originally.

A side note is that MarkCangile argued that talking might be a Mafia tactic.


#1028

Buffer


#1029

I now realize how horrifyingly long those two posts were.

Fortunately (or perhaps not, depending on perspective), @MarkCangile’s only post during Day 3 was requesting a replacement.

There’s not a whole lot you can gather from that, except that it’s uncertain whether or not he investigated somebody Night 2.


#1030

what if he in fact did investigate @gellnick after night one, but didnt accuse him right away because that would be too suspicious?


#1031

Holding off on voting to avoid suspicion is a dangerous strategy. If you wait too long, then not enough people see your vote.

Furthermore, @MarkCangile, as the Cop, has a solid backup plan if he’s on the verge of being voted out: Claim Cop.


#1032

yeah thats true, but claiming cop would mean the mafia would kill you that night


#1033

so its basically suicide


#1034

But at the same time, you still take out a mafia. Plus, you could still be protected by the jailkeeper, even if it only buys you a night.


#1035

yeah but then youd die the next day. and if youre in jail, you cant investigate anyone, so the role of cop is useless


#1036

But isn’t taking out a mafia important? Besides, this would be the backup plan, to only be used if you were on the verge of being voted out anyways.


#1037

Excellent work, you’ve definitely done a good job at narrowing down the list

So you believe it’s highly unlikely that @Pooja_Anil and @waxton is mafai?


#1038

@waxton is still unclear, since I don’t think that he was investigated by @MarkCangile.


#1039

well you can take my word or not, but if you kill me you will be very dissapointed


#1040

Based on @Squirrel2412s analysis, /vote @Pooja_Anil