FRCTop25 Week 5 Poll Open. Closes 4/3 10:00pm Eastern

Week 5 of the FRC Top 25 community poll is now open. We had some awesome events this week and can’t wait to see who rises to the top!

Voting is here: https://goo.gl/forms/a5XejpIgmwfPvKQ22

Note: Israel District Chamionships will be considered for week 5 voting.

Polls close at 10:00pm Eastern on Monday (we are gaming and hanging out live on air on Monday from 7:00pm-10:00pm Eastern come and join us!)

Check out the results live on Tuesday at 8:30pm Eastern

Post below if you want to make your pitch on a team that should be in the FRC Top 25.

Haven’t been able to watch many events due to attending SVR, but I can say for sure that 254, 971, and 604 had all better be up there!

All three of those teams would be (or already have been) top contributors to 40 kPa + 4 rotor alliances, and all are worthy of making it far at champs.

Regardless of how the voting goes down, I’m very proud of what we were able to accomplish at Idaho. We were able to go 9-2 despite a rough qualification schedule that featured three matches against 2122 and two against 5499. Though the playoffs didn’t go as hoped, I am still proud of the fight we put up at the highest-level regional we competed at this year.

Top 25 by Elo:

team	Elo
254	1883
195	1798
1986	1736
3309	1706
971	1690
604	1677
2122	1668
610	1666
2848	1663
33	1658
3015	1654
1255	1650
3620	1650
1519	1647
16	1646
399	1645
469	1640
4028	1639
25	1639
3132	1639
2614	1638
3230	1637
348	1636
3310	1635
3284	1634

Elo is not the end-all by any means, but you better have a pretty darn good reason if you decide to not put 254 and 195 first and second.

Can you elaborate on why you believe Elo can be used as a valid method of comparison between events with no/minimal overlap in team population?

Top 25 by Gear and Fuel component OPRs.
“Combined Power” is

(gearOpr / maxGearOpr) + (fuelOpr / maxFuelOpr)

Note: Due to the bracketed scoring of rotors, gear OPR is generally underestimated.


Team    Combined Power    Gear OPR          Fuel OPR
254     1.48553115695     3.00857676999     40.8493193554
195     1.40847278161     2.63976610789     40.8203550003
1986    1.30782459036     1.48506343192     47.3938364558
971     1.08300249975     1.51727196164     36.4222444272
3309    1.03055582727     1.87226047855     30.4492539216
33      1.00257984292     2.58821424374     22.0899674176
340     0.970450409928    4.82438206177     -1.40046843923
2122    0.970437537419    1.8605236735      27.7153177249
5687    0.962279438742    4.64473152343     -0.0228684731545
604     0.961098697861    4.58784051338     0.480058439697
3015    0.93268941275     1.9868141301      24.6856352066
4561    0.89440910045     3.95142365272     3.57142401482
225     0.887215276554    2.27859241818     19.6640655344
3310    0.88662422009     3.45606024254     8.06882712566
4967    0.883156933378    1.14704285985     30.5878585102
2767    0.871501084186    1.3205149891      28.3312850091
2848    0.862709508101    3.90637660615     2.51159256727
3478    0.861409754793    0.749639046726    33.4611977917
2451    0.835572036706    2.59959652725     14.0630093164
8       0.830777298108    3.96725159278     0.400178027584
1796    0.827133299899    3.89406184385     0.946477519679
900     0.823776933983    0.359772059471    35.5076151613
230     0.819551062311    3.26403185023     6.77642423986
3314    0.815600803755    3.55957925207     3.68580335752
999     0.811600795296    3.94509040052     -0.290962559351

How are you calculating gear OPR and fuel OPR? they don’t seem to match anything in the 4536 scouting database.

WOOOOOO!!! Go vote for 900!

MMSE using previous event performance as a seed and with rotors -> gears defined here.

Hey Matt, if 900 makes it into the top 25 then we’ll come back to Rumble this year!

Also, if we make it into the top 25 this week then I’ll personally meme every post Andrew Schreiber makes for the next year and I’ll stop mentioning that the Q&A people made me buy a dictionary in every other post I make.

You’re coming to the Rumble in the Roads either way…

Did VMWare give you a “Wil Payne Posting” budget to bill your time against for this?

This is a really valid concern that I have of Elo, investigating this question more was already on my long list of interesting things to investigate. The best way I can think of to test for regional strength would be to look at the average Elo ratings change of every team in a region before and after championships. Regions that see the largest Elo boost coming out of champs probably were undervalued because of their region going in. I’ll probably look into this eventually.

The easier way to look for signs of regional variation is to compare how good the Elo predictions were at the championship event with the district championships, since districts are by far the most isolated regions and the championship event is by far the most diverse. If the championship predictions are appreciably worse than the district championship predictions, we might conclude that there is something (like varying regional strength) that is causing the predictions to be poorer.

The Brier score for quals matches at the championship event in 2016 was 0.172, and the Brier score for quals matches at week 7 district championship events in 2016 was 0.184. This certainly doesn’t absolve Elo completely of the concerns above, but it is sufficient proof for me that Elo tracks fairly well across regions.

Time and materials!

Do you use MMSE even after the event has completed? If so, that is why the discrepancy exists, because the LS solution (what we normally call OPR) and the MMSE solution are not identical.

Thanks for replying. It’s clear you’ve given this a lot of thought. I certainly don’t have any better ideas than the ones you listed.

After World Championships, it would be cool to see a region vs. region ELO so that we can all spend the offseason arguing about the things that matter :slight_smile:

Yes I do. So yes, LS solution will not equal MMSE. I guess “estimated contribution” is more general and fits better than calling it “OPR.”

Caleb, could you make an Elo rating for the top 25 teams going to each championship after Week 7? I know it’s not a perfect measurement, but it’s really interesting to see.

Sure, I can post them on the final top25 thread. All I’m doing is copy-pasting values from here though, and anyone is free to do the same for these or other metrics they are interested in. Here they are for currently registered teams:

Houston

team	Elo
987	1793
118	1787
1678	1785
1619	1737
3309	1706
330	1699
971	1690
604	1677
180	1669
4587	1667
973	1659
3937	1652
16	1646
399	1645
3005	1643
3132	1639
3847	1636
3824	1636
3310	1635
2073	1625
696	1623
1477	1623
1538	1619
179	1616
3512	1611

St. Louis

team	Elo
254	1883
2481	1781
4143	1701
2056	1692
1114	1686
1730	1667
2052	1665
876	1660
3015	1654
4028	1639
2614	1638
3284	1634
1732	1633
2512	1632
2164	1631
340	1618
4253	1618
333	1618
103	1617
2410	1613
1511	1611
1806	1607
3130	1605
4481	1604
67	1600

Thank you for all these positive discussions so far. We are very interested in looking at a mathematical system to weigh the votes for the 2018 season as this will be similar to other sports polls. No matter what we choose somebody will be not happy with it we do want a balance especially as there are more and more events… Another would be to break down by certain regions too.

Last week was rough with so many events and also results in less votes. This week are close to as many votes right now as we were last week so on a personal note I think there will be better distribution.