# [Game 2] FRC Mafia 4 - Popcorn Mafia

#81

Actually that times 72/42 cuz mars and I are town.
(Or if you don’t believe my town claim, mars and you are town

#82

Yeah, the probabilities work for any 2 people, I just picked two “high profile” people because why not.

#83

Actually your probabilities are not entirely correct. For or probabilities, you dont just add them. You subtract the probabability that they both dont happen from one. If you do that you get:

1-(2/3*5/8) = 1-(10/24) = 14/24

so yes P>.5, but not quite as high as you said.

Also, it seems rather suspicious to me that youre just accusing people right off the bat without getting to know them first

just sayin’

#84

Hey a stats guy

#85

1-((1-3/8) * (1-3/7))
1-(5/8 * 4/7)
1-(20/56)
36/56
9/14

#86

See that comment is pretty suspicious because me and @waxton we’re exchanging a friendly greeting that should not typically draw attention yet @ctt956 used it as an opportunity to acuse us…

#87

I’m just saying that people that jump on straws as evidence for mafia don’t sit well with me

#88

Also why no accusation from @ctt956 for this comment? Is @BenjaminRowe a mafia (I’m not acusing @BenjaminRowe I’m just pointing out that it was a similar situation yet @ctt956 said nothing)

Idk @ctt956 s first comment was an accusation it just seems kinda suspicious

#89

yeah that makes sense, but i dont like you, so
/vote @EricKline

#90

Fight me

/Vote @waxton

#91

#92

@waxton You are correct that the probability of A OR B is NOT(NOT A AND NOT B).
This is equal to 1-((1-A)(1-B))
=1-(1-A-B+AB)
=A+B-AB
=A+B(1-A)
where A is the chance of ericklein being scum, B is the chance waxton is scum, and B(1-A) is the chance waxton is scum while ericklein is not.
Therefore the chance of one of them being scum is A=3/8+B=3/7*(1-A)=5/8
=3/8+15/56
=36/56
=9/14

(I found my earlier mistake though, I counted (1-A) as 8/9, not 6/9)

#93

so the same thing i got the second time?

#94

And of course, these work for any two (excl. Mars), not just erickline and waxton

#95

But those stats apply to any given pair of people, not just me and @waxton

#96

Ngaaah!
Our drivers just fatfingered our climber for the second time in four matches. Just a little salty right now…

#97

Oh man where are you competing? I’ll get on your livstream

#98

That is a PROGRAMMING error.

Tell your programmers to add a lock to it so that can’t happen, and tell them it’s their fault if it happens a third time. Straight up.

I was my team’s lead programmer, I should know.

#99

@pratBruns poke

#100

Hi, yeah, I am reading through but don’t really know how to interact in the game