Very cool Graph.
As others have noted, the curve you see here is very similar to last years, and the 2008 curve for OPR distributions (2009 was quite bit different). This shape is very useful for years with “robot” based scoring. We used this type of shape in order to figure out what scoring potentials would be for this year.
If you want to ensure that you win more than 50% of your matches without relying on partyners, you need to be able to score 3X the average opponent or around 24 pts this year. This will put you somewhere in the top 100-200 of this graph, or about the top 15%. At a 40 team district, this would be about 6th. At a 50 team Regional, 7-8th as far as offensive ability goes.
If you want to be able to beat that team with 2 average partners by yourself, then you need to be at 24+2*8= 40 points. This looks to be around top 50 or so on this graph, or Top 5%. In theory you would be one of the top 2 at a District of 40, and top 3 at a regional of 60-ish. This would give you a good shot at making it into the finals at most events (but not all).
Now for some sobering news. Top 5% potentially the best or second best scorer at your event is around teh Top 100 in FRC. At the Championship, 244 teams make it into eliminations or 96 teams. On top of that, for many games, only 2 scorers are required, and the 3rd position is a specialist role. This means there are potentially 416 main scorer slots or 64 total positions or roughly the top 3% of scorers in FRC, and the other 32 slots are often filled with a mix of scorers or specialists.
Going back to the chart, the top 3% looks to be in or around the mid 40s.
When doing your strategy after kick-off, if you decide to go the scoring route (as opposed to specialist) you can use these groupings as guidelines.
The average team value will be 1/3 of the average match score. The average match score this year seems to be around 24 pts. With the team average then around 8 pts.
To make elims at a district or regional as a scorer, you need top 16 or upper 40% which is about 1.5X the average team contribution, or around 50% of the average match score.
The top 10-20% should be able to do this average score on their own, and should be in the running to be an alliance captain or first round pick into the upper 4 alliances. (24 points)
To make the regional/district finals (as a scorer), you need to be planning to achieve top 5%-10% which is 5X the average team contribution or 5/3 your predicted average alliance score. (38 points)
To be confident in making Elims at the Championship, you need an additional contribution or 6X the average team contribution or 2X the average match score. (48 points) Teams will make it into elims with less than this, but if you want to be reasonably certain, this is where you will need to be.
Estimating an average score. I find it is easiest to estimate an average score early on by estimating an entire match score (both sides) and then divide by 2.
Auto: Early in the season expect only 1 uber tube to go up per match on average during qualifying. After week 3, expect this to be closer to 2 uber tubes on average. 6-12 pts.
Teleop: Most matches will have 1 logo on one end and a partial on the other. 18 pts for the logo-end. 6 points for the other. Add another 3 pts as 50% of the time that logo will have an uber under it (6pts/2=3). Thus expect tele-op to garner. 27 total points.
Bonus: Weeks 1-3: 1/4 about 2/3 of the time, and later in season 1/4 ever match, and 2/4 about 50%. Thus early = 30*2/3 = 20pts. Late: (30+50)/2 = 40 points.
These predictions would lead you to:
Early: (6+27+20)=53 total or 26-27 pts/alliance
Later: (12+27+40)=79 total or 39 pts/alliance
These are before penalties. When you read the word penalty multiple times in the manual, assume at least 1 per alliance per match. Thus reduce those scores down to 24 and 36.
We were pretty good with the 24. We will see with the 36 (late season).
Last year, the average alliance score was just under 3 points. Which meant that the average teams score netted just under 1 pt./match on average. The leading scorers on einstein had teams that averaged around 10X.
If that value is accurrate again this year, teams will need to be able to put up 80+ points.