Here’s a good summer CD topic: What do you think the greatest or most surprising upsets have been in FRC history or in your experience, and how would you rank them? I’ll throw out a few to get started.
The #8 seed on Newton (190, 177, 987) winning the division and then defeating 233, 179, and 71 to win the Championship.
The eliminations in Curie 2016, also known as the Reverse Perfect Bracket.
1241, 1477, and 610 defeating 33, 469, and 1519 for the Championship.
1241, 610, and 3560 ending 2056’s streak at Waterloo 2016.
Not quite a legendary upset, but I remember 2011 having a huge upset at the MN North Star Regional, where the 7th Alliance beat the first, in a series of somewhat bizarre events that I honestly don’t entirely recall, but remember being very confused by watching as a freshman at my second ever event.
Not really considering the St. Louis alliance were pretty heavily favored going into FoC. If the Houston alliance won the event then I would consider it an upset.
Here are the most expected and most unexpected victories since 2008 according to my Elo ratings. Note that these are for individual matches only, not sets. Years in which Elo ratings are more diverse (2010, 2011, 2014) seem far more likely to show up on these lists than years in which ratings were less diverse (2009, 2017).
Most Unexpected Victories:
Year Event Type Set Match
2011 Finger Lakes Regional qf 1 1
2011 Pittsburgh Regional qm 1 47
2014 Windsor Essex Great Lakes Regional sf 1 1
2012 Troy FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 40
2010 Curie Division qm 1 87
2011 Traverse City FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 20
2010 Archimedes Division qm 1 113
2014 Queen City Regional qm 1 75
2010 Troy FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 65
2013 Las Vegas Regional qm 1 41
2014 Central Valley Regional qm 1 32
2011 Kettering University FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 23
2014 Curie Division qm 1 148
2010 Archimedes Division qm 1 142
2014 Newton Division qm 1 98
2014 MAR FIRST Robotics Hatboro-Horsham District Competition qm 1 54
2014 Greater Toronto East Regional sf 1 1
2012 Archimedes Division qm 1 42
2014 Curie Division qm 1 55
2014 Newton Division qm 1 61
2010 Galileo Division qm 1 60
2011 Northeast Utilities FIRST Connecticut Regional qm 1 73
2017 NE District - Worcester Polytechnic Institute Event qm 1 58
2009 Galileo Division qm 1 97
2014 New England FRC Region Championship qf 1 2
2017 NE District - Waterbury Event qm 1 76
2011 Arizona Regional sf 1 2
2017 ISR District Event #1 qm 1 4
2017 Darwin Division qm 1 83
2010 Michigan FIRST Robotics Competition State Championship qm 1 70
2010 Curie Division qm 1 1
2010 Michigan FIRST Robotics Competition State Championship qm 1 120
2014 Michigan FRC State Championship qf 1 1
2011 Dallas Regional sponsored by jcpenney sf 1 2
2010 Galileo Division qm 1 131
2014 Queen City Regional qm 1 86
2017 FIM District - Waterford Event qm 1 19
2010 Curie Division qm 1 128
2011 BAE Systems/Granite State Regional qm 1 54
2017 Turing Division qm 1 58
2014 Groton District Event qm 1 15
2013 Crossroads Regional qm 1 73
2011 Galileo Division qm 1 90
2012 Galileo Division qm 1 37
2011 Finger Lakes Regional f 1 1
2017 FIRST North Carolina State Championship qm 1 40
2012 Niles FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 82
2010 Curie Division qm 1 39
2012 Archimedes Division qm 1 104
2011 Curie Division qm 1 72
2010 Archimedes Division qm 1 42
2014 Curie Division qm 1 99
2010 Las Vegas Regional qm 1 56
2010 Midwest Regional qm 1 69
2014 Galileo Division qm 1 74
2012 Greater Toronto West Regional qm 1 36
2016 Dallas Regional qm 1 20
2012 Lenape FIRST Robotics District Competition qf 1 1
2014 Bayou Regional qm 1 60
2014 Greater Toronto East Regional sf 1 2
2009 New Jersey Regional qm 1 69
2009 Midwest Regional qf 1 2
2017 Carson Division qm 1 89
2011 Michigan FIRST Robotics District Competition State Championship qm 1 122
2013 Las Vegas Regional qm 1 23
2010 Greater Kansas City Regional qm 1 60
2012 Alamo Regional qm 1 35
2016 Waterloo Regional qm 1 30
2014 Curie Division qm 1 145
2013 Oklahoma Regional qm 1 76
2009 Greater Toronto Regional qm 1 20
2016 FIM District - Waterford Event qm 1 61
2012 Newton Division sf 2 1
2014 Las Vegas Regional qm 1 22
2011 Waterford FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 72
2010 Detroit FIRST Robotics District Competition qf 3 2
2016 Michigan State Championship qm 1 189
2014 Greater Toronto West Regional qm 1 7
2014 Western Canada Regional qm 1 34
2011 Archimedes Division qm 1 140
2011 Galileo Division qm 1 133
2012 Lone Star Regional qm 1 60
2016 FIM District - Southfield Event qm 1 19
2013 New York City Regional qm 1 27
2012 Kettering University FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 14
2012 Seattle Olympic Regional qf 1 2
2016 Sacramento Regional qf 3 1
2013 Michigan FRC State Championship qm 1 48
2012 Newton Division qm 1 105
2014 Lone Star Regional sf 1 2
2016 Los Angeles Regional qm 1 29
2011 Curie Division qm 1 53
2014 Midwest Regional qm 1 83
2014 Waterford FIRST Robotics District Competition qf 3 1
2016 Tesla Division qm 1 75
2014 Sacramento Regional qm 1 42
2010 Finger Lakes Regional sf 1 2
2012 Galileo Division f 1 2
2011 Curie Division qm 1 111
2012 Greater Toronto East Regional sf 1 1
Most Expected Victories:
Year Event Type Set Match
2014 Waterloo Regional qm 1 17
2010 Michigan FIRST Robotics Competition State Championship qm 1 114
2010 Greater Toronto Regional qm 1 35
2013 Waterloo Regional qf 1 1
2013 Waterloo Regional qf 1 2
2011 Newton Division qm 1 39
2010 Curie Division qm 1 44
2013 Greater Toronto East Regional qf 1 2
2013 Greater Toronto East Regional qf 1 1
2010 Greater Toronto Regional qf 1 2
2014 Curie Division qm 1 117
2010 Greater Toronto Regional qf 1 1
2010 Waterloo Regional sf 1 2
2010 Waterloo Regional sf 1 1
2010 Curie Division qm 1 30
2012 Curie Division qm 1 124
2014 Greater Kansas City Regional qm 1 49
2014 Waterloo Regional qm 1 50
2011 Greater Toronto East Regional qf 1 2
2011 Kettering University FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 32
2011 Detroit FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 53
2012 Troy FIRST Robotics District Competition qf 1 2
2016 Greater Toronto East Regional qm 1 24
2010 Galileo Division qm 1 22
2011 Detroit FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 20
2013 Greater Toronto West Regional qm 1 18
2011 Greater Toronto East Regional qf 1 1
2014 Archimedes Division qm 1 98
2014 Boilermaker Regional qm 1 54
2010 Michigan FIRST Robotics Competition State Championship qm 1 55
2010 Curie Division qm 1 115
2014 Windsor Essex Great Lakes Regional qf 1 1
2013 Archimedes Division qm 1 10
2010 Michigan FIRST Robotics Competition State Championship qf 3 1
2013 Waterloo Regional qm 1 22
2011 Midwest Regional qm 1 68
2010 Galileo Division qm 1 80
2016 Silicon Valley Regional presented by Google.org qm 1 24
2011 Galileo Division qm 1 105
2011 Newton Division qm 1 68
2013 Waterloo Regional sf 1 1
2010 Waterloo Regional qf 1 2
2011 Curie Division qm 1 129
2013 Waterloo Regional sf 1 2
2013 Waterloo Regional qm 1 20
2013 Greater Toronto West Regional qm 1 55
2013 Greater Toronto West Regional sf 1 2
2011 Troy FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 65
2011 Waterloo Regional qf 1 2
2012 Troy FIRST Robotics District Competition qf 1 1
2011 Curie Division qm 1 30
2010 Michigan FIRST Robotics Competition State Championship qm 1 93
2013 West Michigan FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 50
2010 Waterloo Regional qf 1 1
2014 Howell FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 22
2014 Greater Toronto West Regional qm 1 35
2009 Troy FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 72
2013 Archimedes Division qm 1 99
2012 Troy FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 37
2010 Michigan FIRST Robotics Competition State Championship qf 3 2
2014 Waterloo Regional qm 1 38
2011 Galileo Division qm 1 81
2014 Curie Division qm 1 58
2013 Greater Toronto West Regional qm 1 8
2014 Curie Division qm 1 26
2009 Galileo Division qm 1 42
2013 Greater Toronto West Regional sf 1 1
2016 Silicon Valley Regional presented by Google.org qf 1 2
2011 Troy FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 58
2012 Curie Division qm 1 96
2014 Lone Star Regional qm 1 57
2013 Greater Toronto West Regional qf 1 1
2010 Archimedes Division qm 1 45
2014 Northeastern University District Event qm 1 54
2011 Waterloo Regional qf 1 1
2014 Curie Division qm 1 139
2014 Troy FIRST Robotics District Competition qm 1 60
2013 Archimedes Division qm 1 67
2016 Silicon Valley Regional presented by Google.org qm 1 61
2010 Curie Division sf 1 1
2014 Finger Lakes Regional qm 1 55
2011 Galileo Division qm 1 83
2010 Curie Division sf 1 2
2016 Silicon Valley Regional presented by Google.org qf 1 1
2013 Curie Division qm 1 33
2014 Waterloo Regional qf 1 1
2011 Silicon Valley Regional qf 1 2
2014 Alamo Regional sponsored by Rackspace Hosting qm 1 90
2011 Greater Toronto East Regional sf 1 1
2014 Waterloo Regional qf 1 2
2012 Newton Division qm 1 89
2011 Silicon Valley Regional qf 1 1
2011 Archimedes Division qm 1 142
2013 Greater Toronto West Regional qf 1 2
2014 Curie Division qm 1 102
2012 Curie Division qm 1 52
2013 Oklahoma Regional qm 1 61
2012 Waterford FIRST Robotics District Competition qf 1 2
2011 Curie Division qm 1 33
2013 San Diego Regional qm 1 82
The most unexpected victory according to this system was the first playoff match at the 2011 Finger Lakes Regional, where 2056, 217, and 1518 were shut out by the #8 alliance, possibly due to a red card?
The least surprising victory was the 17th qual match at the 2014 Waterloo regional, where 4039, 1114, and 254 resoundingly won 215 to 24.
I have posted the full data in my Miscellaneous Statistics Projects under the name “Greatest Upsets” since it is too large to attach here. I removed all 2015 matches as well as all ties from the data set.
16, 1114, and 2056 losing in the semis at IRI in 2008.
469 beating 71 at IRI in 2002.
177 and 217 both not making champs in 2012 after years of success.
1717 never making it to Einstein.
Of course Waterloo finals in 2016. For anyone from 610 and 1241 what does your team hold higher this finals or Champs in 2013 both were incredible and historic.
The amazing thing for this type of list is how amazing the teams getting beat and upsetting are. It shows the quote “luck is a matter of preparation meeting opportunity” to it’s fullest.
I was going to mention 71 at IRI in 2002 if nobody else had, although I seem to associate that more with 201 than 469… I had to go double check that 469 was also on the winning alliance!
2014 Archimedes Quarterfinals.
Incredible strategy and execution from the #8 alliance 51, 2485, and 1918 overcame #1, 399, 2056, and 2175. Once 1918 got locked into place, it was game over.
#1 alliance of 33, 60, 1241 topped by the #8 alliance of 121, 237, 386. Remember, 2004 is before serpentine drafting. That #1 alliance was stacked. The Killer Bees were one of the best small ball handling machines in all of FRC, capable of hoarding tons of balls quickly. They had won two of their three regionals that year and went 6-1 in quals. The Bionic Bulldogs collaborated with 254* to build one of the best doubler ball and hanging machines around. 60 went 7-0 in quals to earn the #1 seed. 1241 were the rookie sensations from Canada, with a giant catching net to get balls as soon as they were released onto the field (and place the doubler ball afterwards). That alliance seemed stacked and poised to challenge for at least the Archimedes title. But they were swiftly defeated in 2 matches.
*Remember that it was actually 60 who pioneered the west coast drive, and that 2004 robot basically set the stage for 254’s design style over the next few seasons
The 2007 championship winners (190, 177, 987) have got to be the biggest upset just for the simple fact that they won worlds as the 8th seed in their division.
Seems like we have a knack for upsets.
2013 worlds was a bigger upset and also it’s a championship win so we definitely hold that in higher regard.
The greatest upset I’ve seen was 2011 MSC. The number 1 alliance was stacked, featuring 217 (only Mi team to make it to Einstein that season), 469, and 201. As soon as 217 picked 469, everyone knew it was over. Getting 201 (who contributed to high scores at previous events) was just the icing on top.
Their first match against #8 was what you expected: overwhelming dominance. It was just that kind of matchup where that was to be expected.
Their second match, however, started of much differently. Instead of throwing the game pieces across the field, #8 chose to steal the pieces that #1 threw out. #1 noticed quickly, and no game pieces were thrown the rest of the match. However, this advantage gave #8 an upset over #1.
The third match started off with neither alliance throwing game pieces. It was all defensive strategy and scoring where they could. It was a close match, but #8 came out on top.
This is my favorite upset because it was the direct result of a new strategy. I would highly recommend watching these matches, and comparing them to worlds.
2016 MSC Ocotfinals, where the 16th seed alliance of 548, 5048, and 217 took down the 1st seeded alliance of 33, 2767, and 1684. Both were great alliances, but we were all extremely shocked to see that upset.
I’d be curious to know how many of these matches were the result of Red Cards as opposed to being the result of a genuine strategic upset. I know off hand that the 2011 FLR Quarterfinal upset was probably the match where the 2056/217/1518(?) alliance received a red card. I’d imagine a good portion of these upsets (especially the ones where the alliances predicted win rate was in the high 90%) were the result of a DQ or something similar.
I’d be willing to bet 90% of upsets were due to factors outside of strategy. Just as an example in semi-finals 3 of 2013 Galileo, 1114’s climber failed. Had it worked it would’ve been a win for them.
This is nothing against any team that manages to upset: half of the win is your opponent having issues, but the other half is your alliance executing well.
The best kinds of upsets in my opinion are based around alliance selection. Although the Newton 2016 #1 alliance was having issues, 217 picked a beautiful alliance that allowed the maximized amount of points (4678 with their very nice C defense auto, and 3476 was able to climb and shoot with the best of them).
