Houston Ranking Projections

Caleb_Sykes · April 19, 2018, 6:54pm

Here are the ranking projections for the Houston divisions from my event simulator as of Thursday night. You can compare these to the pre-event projections here (note that I called Carver Carson).

Carver:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
1690	79%	100%	100%	100%	100%
4911	16%	99%	100%	100%	100%
5987	4%	96%	99%	100%	100%
16	1%	68%	85%	91%	98%
744	0%	51%	71%	82%	94%
4499	0%	49%	72%	81%	95%
1414	0%	45%	65%	76%	93%
6800	0%	33%	54%	66%	86%
5006	0%	30%	52%	65%	90%
341	0%	29%	50%	62%	85%
1425	0%	27%	47%	60%	84%
2910	0%	25%	47%	61%	87%
5803	0%	22%	41%	56%	83%
5026	0%	17%	37%	51%	83%
2152	0%	16%	31%	43%	73%
580	0%	15%	33%	43%	69%
6502	0%	11%	24%	37%	67%
4265	0%	10%	24%	35%	63%
4944	0%	10%	22%	33%	62%
175	0%	10%	22%	34%	67%
6985	0%	6%	13%	21%	51%
2556	0%	4%	11%	18%	48%
1477	0%	4%	13%	21%	56%
418	0%	4%	11%	19%	45%
4795	0%	3%	9%	14%	38%
4192	0%	3%	10%	18%	46%
3145	0%	2%	9%	14%	39%
3132	0%	2%	7%	12%	34%
5805	0%	2%	5%	9%	29%
3753	0%	1%	5%	11%	34%
342	0%	1%	4%	10%	33%
1421	0%	1%	3%	6%	20%
1622	0%	1%	3%	8%	29%
1466	0%	1%	2%	3%	12%
6988	0%	1%	3%	5%	20%
7111	0%	1%	4%	7%	22%
1410	0%	1%	1%	3%	14%
343	0%	0%	3%	7%	30%
801	0%	0%	4%	7%	34%
3991	0%	0%	1%	1%	7%
3229	0%	0%	1%	1%	7%
3238	0%	0%	3%	5%	23%
100	0%	0%	1%	1%	6%
2415	0%	0%	1%	1%	7%
6846	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
108	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
932	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
1369	0%	0%	0%	1%	7%
1378	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1769	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2429	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2723	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2811	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
2928	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
3834	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4013	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4171	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4306	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4501	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5458	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5499	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5829	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6413	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6832	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6838	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%
6902	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7123	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
7301	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%

Galileo:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
1986	78%	100%	100%	100%	100%
4910	10%	90%	97%	99%	100%
3005	5%	81%	95%	98%	100%
3674	3%	78%	94%	98%	100%
330	1%	77%	94%	98%	100%
4635	2%	65%	86%	95%	100%
1574	1%	65%	88%	96%	99%
5817	0%	56%	83%	92%	100%
2486	0%	43%	71%	85%	99%
4613	0%	31%	61%	78%	98%
3937	0%	27%	58%	75%	97%
1577	0%	26%	59%	79%	98%
2485	0%	17%	42%	65%	95%
4488	0%	16%	53%	76%	98%
5190	0%	13%	45%	68%	96%
6886	0%	5%	18%	34%	81%
4010	0%	3%	10%	20%	74%
3653	0%	2%	9%	25%	78%
1939	0%	2%	10%	28%	82%
6429	0%	1%	7%	20%	68%
6831	0%	1%	5%	12%	52%
846	0%	1%	5%	13%	54%
368	0%	0%	3%	10%	47%
6824	0%	0%	2%	6%	34%
647	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
649	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
701	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
1197	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
1311	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1817	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
2468	0%	0%	0%	1%	27%
2659	0%	0%	1%	4%	33%
2682	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
2789	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
3006	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3008	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%
3103	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3230	0%	0%	1%	2%	24%
3374	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3526	0%	0%	0%	1%	30%
3598	0%	0%	0%	1%	17%
3933	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
3965	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
4091	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
4201	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
4205	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
4256	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4293	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4451	0%	0%	2%	9%	54%
4587	0%	0%	1%	4%	30%
4610	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4924	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5145	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%
5515	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5630	0%	0%	0%	1%	15%
5857	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5960	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6026	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6168	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6304	0%	0%	1%	3%	25%
6357	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6813	0%	0%	0%	0%	11%
6817	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6833	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6898	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
6999	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7106	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7277	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Hopper:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
148	3%	100%	100%	100%	100%
254	97%	100%	100%	100%	100%
399	0%	100%	100%	100%	100%
2992	0%	94%	99%	100%	100%
180	0%	88%	99%	100%	100%
359	0%	75%	98%	100%	100%
3339	0%	65%	93%	97%	100%
1156	0%	58%	92%	97%	100%
5572	0%	52%	92%	98%	100%
456	0%	36%	87%	95%	100%
973	0%	22%	72%	87%	97%
2976	0%	3%	31%	58%	92%
294	0%	2%	15%	33%	70%
5801	0%	2%	21%	41%	80%
6702	0%	1%	19%	36%	72%
1706	0%	1%	14%	31%	73%
2990	0%	1%	13%	34%	74%
5414	0%	0%	4%	10%	42%
7039	0%	0%	9%	25%	68%
957	0%	0%	2%	5%	34%
1261	0%	0%	2%	10%	41%
5291	0%	0%	3%	8%	35%
6705	0%	0%	1%	3%	20%
59	0%	0%	7%	26%	78%
585	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%
980	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1810	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1828	0%	0%	0%	1%	6%
1902	0%	0%	1%	3%	21%
1984	0%	0%	0%	1%	7%
2096	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
2283	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
2583	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
2854	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2974	0%	0%	1%	4%	25%
3019	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3075	0%	0%	0%	1%	9%
3223	0%	0%	0%	1%	10%
3284	0%	0%	1%	3%	21%
3397	0%	0%	1%	3%	25%
3489	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
3495	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
3506	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3711	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3970	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%
4400	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
4733	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4775	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5242	0%	0%	1%	5%	24%
5496	0%	0%	9%	26%	68%
5809	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5839	0%	0%	1%	7%	37%
5854	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6014	0%	0%	0%	1%	7%
6025	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6050	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6060	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
6353	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
6672	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%
6803	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%
6885	0%	0%	1%	5%	21%
6907	0%	0%	10%	29%	75%
6919	0%	0%	1%	5%	33%
7034	0%	0%	1%	4%	23%
7140	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7157	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7173	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7293	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Newton:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
1678	52%	99%	100%	100%	100%
1648	9%	98%	100%	100%	100%
3309	9%	95%	99%	100%	100%
1619	25%	95%	99%	99%	100%
118	4%	80%	95%	98%	100%
3310	0%	60%	88%	96%	100%
2403	0%	58%	86%	95%	100%
3853	0%	51%	80%	90%	99%
971	0%	31%	64%	81%	98%
624	0%	31%	63%	80%	98%
6424	0%	26%	53%	70%	95%
5104	0%	16%	44%	62%	95%
5199	0%	13%	30%	45%	83%
4513	0%	13%	45%	70%	98%
687	0%	13%	37%	56%	94%
5663	0%	6%	23%	47%	92%
968	0%	6%	26%	50%	91%
3158	0%	5%	19%	38%	84%
4576	0%	2%	11%	19%	59%
4061	0%	2%	18%	38%	85%
1251	0%	0%	3%	8%	47%
6871	0%	0%	2%	6%	37%
6474	0%	0%	3%	6%	39%
6844	0%	0%	2%	8%	50%
1011	0%	0%	1%	5%	43%
1723	0%	0%	4%	10%	48%
604	0%	0%	1%	4%	34%
812	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
832	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1700	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1868	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1982	0%	0%	1%	3%	24%
2367	0%	0%	1%	5%	33%
2840	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2905	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2980	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3128	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
3140	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3164	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
3472	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3473	0%	0%	0%	1%	17%
3481	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3501	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3737	0%	0%	0%	1%	15%
4125	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
4270	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4468	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
5098	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5554	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
5654	0%	0%	0%	3%	26%
5700	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5726	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5802	0%	0%	0%	1%	24%
5849	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5997	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
6377	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6508	0%	0%	1%	2%	21%
6510	0%	0%	1%	4%	44%
6645	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6814	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6891	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7067	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7128	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
7134	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7137	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
7190	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7303	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Roebling:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
179	54%	100%	100%	100%	100%
1323	42%	100%	100%	100%	100%
3476	4%	99%	100%	100%	100%
4159	0%	68%	84%	91%	98%
4188	0%	59%	75%	84%	96%
5985	0%	59%	81%	88%	97%
4522	0%	51%	73%	83%	96%
3250	0%	49%	77%	88%	99%
5437	0%	37%	66%	80%	97%
3882	0%	32%	59%	70%	91%
2521	0%	23%	47%	60%	88%
3959	0%	19%	43%	59%	87%
5429	0%	16%	36%	51%	79%
2073	0%	13%	29%	41%	76%
2584	0%	11%	32%	48%	83%
3792	0%	11%	28%	41%	75%
3316	0%	10%	23%	34%	66%
4980	0%	9%	24%	36%	64%
1710	0%	6%	17%	30%	58%
2906	0%	5%	14%	21%	48%
1002	0%	3%	11%	20%	50%
3288	0%	3%	8%	16%	44%
2522	0%	2%	8%	16%	49%
3646	0%	2%	10%	18%	48%
1540	0%	2%	6%	11%	37%
2383	0%	2%	6%	11%	45%
1730	0%	1%	6%	13%	39%
1178	0%	1%	4%	9%	31%
1778	0%	1%	4%	8%	32%
2352	0%	1%	6%	15%	56%
6996	0%	1%	2%	5%	18%
668	0%	1%	3%	6%	28%
2576	0%	1%	3%	7%	30%
6072	0%	1%	3%	7%	27%
4191	0%	1%	3%	6%	21%
6348	0%	1%	3%	6%	27%
6024	0%	0%	3%	6%	29%
1515	0%	0%	1%	2%	11%
1775	0%	0%	3%	6%	24%
488	0%	0%	1%	2%	11%
5212	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
6887	0%	0%	0%	2%	10%
6957	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
972	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
1072	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1763	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1983	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
2080	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
3239	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3390	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3880	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
4401	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
4802	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5410	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
5472	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5678	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6106	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6390	0%	0%	1%	1%	8%
6459	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6652	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7018	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7081	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7102	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7152	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
7193	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7312	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7327	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Turing:

Team	1	Top 8	Top 12	Top 15	Top 24
2122	53%	98%	100%	100%	100%
1533	9%	84%	95%	98%	100%
364	14%	81%	94%	98%	100%
2557	6%	78%	92%	97%	100%
3478	3%	63%	86%	93%	99%
2231	5%	61%	83%	91%	99%
4146	3%	59%	80%	90%	99%
2102	2%	44%	70%	84%	99%
3512	2%	44%	69%	82%	96%
5584	1%	39%	60%	76%	96%
842	2%	38%	65%	80%	97%
1806	0%	27%	54%	70%	93%
3847	0%	21%	49%	68%	94%
987	0%	18%	41%	57%	89%
3663	0%	12%	31%	45%	82%
3218	0%	9%	24%	39%	78%
4561	0%	5%	16%	30%	70%
2059	0%	5%	17%	30%	76%
2848	0%	5%	13%	25%	62%
2478	0%	4%	13%	27%	69%
5818	0%	2%	11%	24%	69%
6131	0%	2%	10%	20%	65%
4189	0%	1%	5%	10%	37%
1538	0%	1%	4%	12%	59%
2341	0%	1%	2%	7%	33%
120	0%	0%	3%	7%	35%
2471	0%	0%	1%	2%	23%
2642	0%	0%	2%	5%	36%
1318	0%	0%	1%	1%	14%
2630	0%	0%	3%	7%	39%
5522	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%
5986	0%	0%	2%	5%	25%
360	0%	0%	0%	1%	11%
568	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
1102	0%	0%	3%	11%	48%
1296	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
1744	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2046	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%
2130	0%	0%	0%	1%	10%
2637	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2655	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%
2658	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
3593	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4603	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
4627	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4698	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%
4941	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
4984	0%	0%	0%	1%	17%
5045	0%	0%	0%	1%	7%
5344	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%
5417	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5449	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5453	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
5468	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5716	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5908	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6314	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
6445	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6822	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6888	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6941	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
6952	0%	0%	1%	2%	19%
7057	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7063	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7079	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
7179	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
7287	0%	0%	1%	2%	22%

Not much change in 1 seed probabilities since yesterday for Galileo, Newton, and Turing. 1425 and 16 are basically out of contention for 1 seed on Carver, they’ve been replaced by 1690 and 4911. 254 is nearly a lock for 1 seed on Hopper with their 4.0 ranking score. 3476 is almost out of contention for 1 seed on Roebling, leaving 1323 and 179 to duke it out.

Landonh12 · April 19, 2018, 7:02pm

Went from 14th to 3rd and 1% to 14% 1st seed projection.

I like you a lot more now.

Caleb_Sykes · April 19, 2018, 7:20pm

Stuff like that happens when you go undefeated. You guys improved your odds, not me. It also helps that 2122, 2471, and 1806 have all dropped matches.

Landonh12 · April 19, 2018, 7:54pm

Haha yeah I’m just picking. I appreciate all of the number-crunching you do!

DonRotolo · April 19, 2018, 8:56pm

Ouch! …says FRC832.

Nick.kremer · April 19, 2018, 9:06pm

I’ll take a 44% chance of top 8

Caleb_Sykes · April 20, 2018, 12:59pm

Lunchtime update: