Houston Ranking Projections

#1

I’m back at it again with some ranking projections from my event simulator. Here were my Houston projections from last year for the curious.

Since last year I have added the capability to simulate events even before the schedules are released, so here are my pre-schedule projections for Houston:

Carver
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
1678 2.1 50% 93% 99% >99% >99%
118 2.5 36% 89% 98% 99% >99%
330 6.4 6% 48% 78% 89% 94%
386 10.1 2% 30% 58% 73% 80%
4911 10.9 2% 29% 55% 70% 78%
364 12.6 <1% 16% 43% 61% 72%
3309 13.2 1% 15% 41% 59% 70%
2990 14.5 <1% 13% 36% 55% 64%
368 15.0 <1% 9% 31% 51% 61%
2147 20.5 <1% 5% 20% 32% 42%
5006 20.9 <1% 5% 16% 31% 41%
7108 21.3 <1% 4% 16% 29% 40%
5892 21.5 <1% 4% 16% 29% 39%
6443 22.8 <1% 1% 12% 26% 35%
2811 23.4 <1% 3% 13% 25% 35%
4534 23.7 <1% 4% 15% 26% 34%
4775 23.8 <1% 3% 10% 20% 30%
2102 24.0 <1% 2% 11% 22% 32%
1339 24.6 <1% 3% 11% 24% 32%
7179 25.6 <1% 4% 12% 23% 31%
7419 26.4 <1% 3% 9% 19% 27%
1746 26.4 <1% 2% 10% 20% 28%
3931 27.0 <1% 2% 9% 18% 24%
3039 27.4 <1% 2% 9% 18% 25%
4561 27.6 <1% 2% 8% 17% 25%
2486 28.9 <1% 2% 8% 16% 23%
1261 31.6 <1% 2% 6% 13% 18%
4079 31.6 <1% <1% 4% 9% 15%
7426 32.3 <1% <1% 5% 10% 15%
4290 32.5 <1% <1% 2% 10% 15%
2584 33.4 <1% <1% 4% 9% 14%
3024 33.8 <1% <1% 3% 8% 13%
5572 35.2 <1% <1% 3% 8% 12%
687 35.2 <1% <1% 3% 9% 12%
7088 35.4 <1% <1% 3% 7% 11%
587 36.3 <1% <1% 3% 6% 10%
4188 37.0 <1% <1% 3% 6% 9%
5242 38.4 <1% <1% 2% 6% 9%
2881 39.0 <1% <1% 1% 5% 7%
7891 39.3 <1% <1% 2% 5% 7%
1939 40.8 <1% <1% 2% 4% 6%
3240 40.8 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7%
2080 41.7 <1% <1% 2% 4% 6%
4400 42.1 <1% <1% <1% 3% 4%
2375 42.3 <1% <1% 1% 3% 6%
3132 42.6 <1% <1% <1% 3% 4%
4255 43.6 <1% <1% <1% 3% 4%
1515 44.0 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
3481 44.9 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
2662 45.3 <1% <1% <1% 1% 4%
2183 46.1 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
3792 46.7 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
5515 47.0 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
1785 47.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6390 48.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
7767 48.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
5126 48.9 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
7725 49.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6014 49.9 <1% <1% <1% 2% 2%
2643 50.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
7529 50.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
2905 52.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
5526 52.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
442 53.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7796 54.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6608 54.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7567 60.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7895 61.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Galileo
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
971 5.2 26% 62% 82% 91% 94%
179 7.3 17% 46% 72% 83% 88%
1986 7.8 10% 44% 67% 81% 87%
4414 8.6 10% 36% 64% 78% 85%
2468 9.9 7% 32% 55% 72% 81%
2974 10.5 9% 32% 53% 69% 77%
2478 11.7 5% 22% 46% 63% 73%
1102 13.6 4% 21% 40% 56% 66%
4488 15.2 3% 14% 34% 50% 59%
3128 18.8 <1% 7% 21% 36% 46%
4587 19.2 1% 8% 22% 38% 46%
3646 20.5 <1% 5% 17% 30% 41%
1414 21.0 <1% 6% 16% 30% 40%
2152 21.6 <1% 4% 13% 24% 35%
5414 21.9 <1% 5% 16% 27% 37%
5801 22.5 <1% 4% 14% 25% 35%
5985 23.0 <1% 5% 14% 25% 32%
5431 23.0 <1% 4% 14% 25% 33%
2928 23.4 <1% 5% 14% 24% 33%
4469 23.6 <1% 5% 12% 23% 31%
5933 24.2 <1% 3% 11% 23% 31%
114 25.3 <1% 4% 9% 21% 29%
2059 25.6 <1% 1% 8% 18% 27%
4026 25.9 <1% 3% 8% 17% 24%
1538 26.1 <1% 4% 11% 19% 25%
4089 27.0 <1% 3% 9% 19% 25%
7620 27.9 <1% 3% 8% 15% 20%
5511 28.2 <1% <1% 5% 11% 17%
6800 29.0 <1% 2% 7% 15% 21%
498 30.2 <1% 2% 6% 12% 19%
5472 32.2 <1% <1% 3% 9% 14%
4565 32.6 <1% 1% 4% 9% 14%
4500 34.8 <1% 1% 3% 8% 13%
6479 34.9 <1% 1% 3% 7% 11%
3998 36.2 <1% <1% 2% 6% 9%
2551 36.3 <1% 1% 3% 6% 9%
2443 38.2 <1% <1% 2% 4% 7%
597 38.8 <1% <1% 2% 5% 7%
702 41.4 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5%
3250 41.9 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
5900 42.4 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
701 42.4 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5%
3480 42.6 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5%
1255 42.7 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
6418 43.6 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
7773 43.7 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
7409 45.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
1156 45.5 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
7424 46.8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
6386 46.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6036 46.8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
7663 47.2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1%
399 47.3 <1% <1% <1% 2% 2%
7072 47.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
4738 47.5 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
6768 48.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
4468 48.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
1982 48.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
7446 49.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
6177 51.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7742 52.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7421 53.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6444 54.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
299 54.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7465 57.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6825 58.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7246 58.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hopper
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
4910 3.3 42% 78% 92% 96% 98%
2046 4.4 26% 70% 87% 94% 95%
2122 10.2 7% 32% 56% 70% 78%
4020 11.1 5% 28% 50% 67% 75%
59 13.5 3% 23% 43% 59% 67%
744 15.3 2% 16% 34% 50% 58%
5803 16.2 2% 13% 31% 46% 57%
832 16.5 1% 14% 31% 46% 56%
4183 16.6 <1% 10% 27% 42% 53%
6485 17.1 1% 12% 29% 43% 53%
3476 17.1 2% 13% 30% 46% 54%
4063 18.1 1% 9% 23% 37% 48%
4043 18.3 1% 8% 24% 39% 49%
3663 18.8 1% 10% 25% 39% 50%
1425 19.2 <1% 9% 23% 37% 46%
1477 19.5 <1% 7% 20% 35% 46%
7433 20.3 <1% 7% 20% 34% 45%
2992 21.3 <1% 6% 15% 29% 39%
2976 24.1 <1% 6% 15% 26% 34%
3635 25.4 <1% 4% 12% 23% 30%
5013 26.7 <1% 3% 10% 18% 25%
3616 27.1 <1% 3% 10% 17% 24%
1671 27.4 <1% 2% 9% 16% 23%
7121 28.4 <1% 2% 8% 15% 21%
1311 29.3 <1% 2% 8% 15% 20%
3946 29.7 <1% 1% 6% 13% 19%
6919 30.1 <1% <1% 5% 12% 19%
1987 30.1 <1% 3% 8% 14% 21%
4087 30.8 <1% 1% 7% 13% 18%
1899 32.1 <1% 2% 5% 10% 17%
4499 33.6 <1% 1% 4% 9% 14%
2714 34.6 <1% <1% 4% 7% 11%
2158 35.0 <1% 1% 4% 8% 12%
4192 37.3 <1% <1% 2% 5% 9%
6064 37.6 <1% <1% 2% 4% 8%
5700 37.6 <1% <1% 2% 6% 9%
3794 38.2 <1% <1% 2% 5% 8%
4550 38.9 <1% <1% 2% 4% 7%
7427 39.0 <1% <1% 2% 5% 7%
3735 39.4 <1% <1% 2% 5% 8%
3824 40.0 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7%
2438 40.1 <1% <1% 1% 4% 6%
7451 40.7 <1% <1% 1% 4% 6%
6907 41.9 <1% <1% 1% 4% 5%
691 42.2 <1% <1% 1% 4% 6%
5022 42.6 <1% <1% 1% 4% 6%
1072 42.9 <1% <1% <1% 3% 4%
3834 44.7 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
6814 44.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
2710 45.5 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
7447 45.6 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
2637 45.9 <1% <1% <1% 3% 4%
6506 46.0 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
6988 46.0 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
7443 47.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
7461 48.1 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
2357 48.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
6838 49.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6934 51.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
4013 52.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
7787 52.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6885 54.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6704 54.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5887 56.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7607 57.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7635 58.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2441 58.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6413 60.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Newton
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
1323 1.3 85% 98% >99% >99% >99%
2910 8.0 2% 38% 66% 81% 88%
842 8.9 3% 34% 60% 76% 85%
604 9.9 1% 25% 51% 72% 82%
180 10.1 1% 28% 52% 71% 80%
973 10.2 <1% 24% 51% 72% 80%
1983 10.6 1% 25% 50% 67% 78%
846 12.5 <1% 17% 40% 58% 71%
1540 13.1 <1% 13% 35% 57% 68%
7521 13.9 1% 15% 36% 54% 66%
2073 14.7 1% 13% 33% 49% 59%
3674 16.4 <1% 8% 26% 45% 56%
5109 16.8 <1% 9% 23% 39% 52%
5026 17.9 <1% 8% 21% 36% 49%
4415 18.5 <1% 7% 18% 34% 46%
2659 19.0 <1% 9% 21% 34% 45%
3005 19.6 <1% 6% 19% 32% 43%
1817 20.8 <1% 6% 16% 29% 39%
2471 23.8 <1% 2% 9% 20% 29%
624 23.9 <1% 4% 11% 22% 31%
233 24.0 <1% 2% 10% 20% 29%
5015 25.6 <1% 1% 8% 16% 25%
2682 29.8 <1% 1% 5% 11% 17%
3598 30.2 <1% 1% 4% 10% 16%
4201 30.7 <1% <1% 4% 9% 15%
253 32.2 <1% <1% 3% 7% 11%
4153 32.6 <1% 1% 3% 8% 13%
5499 32.7 <1% 1% 3% 7% 12%
5312 33.7 <1% <1% 2% 7% 11%
7514 33.9 <1% <1% 2% 6% 9%
4265 34.2 <1% <1% 3% 7% 12%
3374 35.0 <1% <1% 2% 5% 9%
1806 35.7 <1% <1% 2% 3% 7%
5437 36.4 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7%
932 36.8 <1% <1% 1% 3% 6%
6833 40.3 <1% <1% <1% 3% 5%
4504 40.3 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5%
5052 40.3 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
538 41.6 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
6200 41.6 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
4635 41.8 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
7500 41.9 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
1902 42.9 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
1706 43.4 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
6068 44.2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
7667 44.4 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
3245 44.7 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
6652 45.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
3045 45.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
7161 45.9 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
6106 46.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
3354 46.9 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
7042 47.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6429 47.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
7583 49.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1539 49.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4068 49.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4191 50.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
7653 50.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7843 50.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6348 51.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6059 52.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5854 52.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6841 52.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7887 53.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6388 55.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7761 55.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Roebling
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
148 2.1 57% 91% 98% >99% >99%
359 5.6 13% 57% 81% 91% 95%
5190 6.9 9% 45% 73% 85% 90%
3847 9.7 6% 32% 59% 73% 81%
3647 11.3 5% 30% 53% 68% 75%
294 12.1 2% 20% 46% 63% 72%
1658 13.2 1% 18% 40% 59% 68%
1771 13.9 1% 16% 38% 56% 66%
1318 18.0 <1% 10% 26% 42% 52%
2642 18.7 <1% 7% 22% 39% 48%
2655 19.0 1% 11% 24% 39% 50%
231 20.9 <1% 6% 19% 32% 42%
1533 21.9 <1% 6% 18% 29% 38%
2907 22.6 <1% 6% 17% 29% 38%
5411 24.4 <1% 4% 13% 25% 33%
7492 25.7 <1% 3% 11% 22% 30%
2557 25.8 <1% 4% 10% 18% 27%
2341 26.0 <1% 3% 11% 21% 30%
2412 27.3 <1% 2% 8% 16% 23%
6803 27.4 <1% 2% 8% 17% 25%
6647 27.6 <1% 2% 9% 19% 26%
1296 27.6 <1% 1% 9% 19% 27%
1369 27.7 <1% 3% 10% 18% 23%
1410 27.8 <1% 2% 9% 18% 27%
4336 28.5 <1% 3% 9% 17% 23%
4005 28.8 <1% 3% 8% 16% 22%
2898 30.1 <1% 2% 6% 13% 20%
6304 30.7 <1% 1% 5% 11% 17%
6829 31.5 <1% 1% 5% 11% 16%
4610 31.5 <1% 1% 6% 12% 18%
4941 32.0 <1% 2% 5% 11% 16%
4276 33.2 <1% <1% 4% 9% 14%
6901 33.4 <1% 1% 5% 11% 15%
1912 33.6 <1% 1% 4% 7% 12%
3859 35.8 <1% <1% 2% 7% 11%
1251 36.4 <1% <1% 3% 6% 10%
2485 37.1 <1% <1% 3% 7% 10%
7498 37.3 <1% <1% 3% 7% 9%
972 37.4 <1% <1% 3% 7% 10%
7458 38.0 <1% <1% 2% 5% 9%
5842 39.0 <1% <1% 2% 4% 8%
3737 39.2 <1% <1% 2% 5% 8%
4965 40.4 <1% <1% 1% 4% 6%
5427 40.4 <1% <1% <1% 4% 6%
5332 40.9 <1% <1% 1% 3% 6%
3243 41.1 <1% <1% 2% 4% 6%
5550 42.2 <1% <1% 2% 4% 6%
5059 43.5 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5%
2813 43.6 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
7403 44.6 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
2415 45.0 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
3366 47.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6364 48.2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
7525 48.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
3991 48.7 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
4639 48.8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
585 49.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6695 50.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
2429 50.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
7565 51.0 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
3881 51.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6026 52.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
7425 52.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
568 53.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7459 54.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7906 55.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1566 57.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Turing
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
1619 2.2 56% 90% 98% 99% >99%
3310 5.5 16% 61% 81% 89% 93%
254 5.5 12% 60% 82% 92% 94%
5199 10.2 3% 26% 54% 70% 79%
1421 11.9 3% 22% 45% 63% 72%
649 13.9 2% 18% 39% 55% 63%
3937 14.0 3% 20% 43% 56% 65%
3478 15.2 <1% 12% 32% 50% 61%
4451 16.3 1% 10% 28% 47% 56%
1726 17.2 <1% 7% 24% 42% 53%
4613 18.1 1% 9% 23% 39% 47%
2403 20.2 <1% 5% 20% 33% 41%
2930 20.2 <1% 5% 20% 32% 43%
1730 20.2 <1% 5% 18% 32% 43%
5012 20.4 <1% 7% 21% 33% 44%
3284 21.3 <1% 5% 17% 29% 38%
2383 21.5 <1% 4% 15% 28% 39%
6377 21.9 <1% 5% 16% 28% 37%
6672 22.5 <1% 4% 15% 26% 35%
2582 23.7 <1% 3% 11% 22% 31%
4522 23.9 <1% 3% 11% 23% 33%
1868 24.2 <1% 3% 10% 21% 28%
2839 26.3 <1% 2% 8% 18% 26%
3196 26.7 <1% 2% 8% 17% 24%
4125 27.4 <1% 1% 7% 15% 23%
1683 27.6 <1% 2% 7% 15% 22%
6986 28.1 <1% 1% 5% 12% 19%
1622 30.7 <1% <1% 6% 11% 17%
2733 32.0 <1% <1% 4% 10% 16%
6321 32.1 <1% <1% 4% 8% 11%
3933 32.2 <1% <1% 3% 8% 13%
6144 33.2 <1% <1% 3% 9% 13%
6579 35.6 <1% <1% 2% 7% 10%
1700 36.9 <1% <1% 2% 6% 8%
6391 37.4 <1% <1% 3% 6% 9%
5468 37.4 <1% <1% 2% 4% 8%
948 37.4 <1% <1% 2% 5% 9%
3035 38.3 <1% <1% 1% 4% 8%
589 38.6 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7%
7840 39.4 <1% <1% 1% 3% 6%
2556 40.1 <1% <1% 2% 4% 5%
4513 40.2 <1% <1% 1% 3% 7%
6072 40.2 <1% <1% 1% 4% 6%
4401 40.7 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
5872 42.2 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
7724 42.5 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
1094 42.7 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
6025 46.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
7494 46.4 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
5993 47.7 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
3966 47.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
6315 47.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
6831 48.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
5857 48.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6995 49.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
7621 49.6 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1%
7464 49.9 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
5805 51.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7661 52.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5754 52.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7308 52.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7753 54.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5930 54.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5716 55.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7528 55.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7277 56.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6957 56.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

I’m going to be hacking my simulator soon to use the preliminary schedules, and comparing those projections against these will give a sense of how good/bad each team’s schedule is. Good luck to everyone! If you don’t like the odds I’ve given you then go prove them wrong.

21 Likes

#2

Here are updated projections using the preliminary schedules. You should keep in mind that differences compared to the above probabilities of ~3ish percent are expected just due to sample error. Any differences beyond that though can be safely attributed to the schedule. I also haven’t checked if surrogates are being treated properly or not.

Carver
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
1678 2.1 52% 92% 99% >99% >99%
118 2.8 29% 85% 98% >99% >99%
330 4.1 10% 68% 94% 99% >99%
364 6.0 3% 42% 82% 94% 97%
386 8.1 3% 25% 64% 84% 91%
2990 8.1 <1% 24% 64% 84% 92%
3309 8.8 1% 20% 59% 81% 89%
4911 9.0 1% 20% 58% 80% 88%
368 13.9 <1% 4% 25% 52% 68%
6443 14.5 <1% 3% 22% 47% 64%
4775 15.9 <1% 3% 19% 43% 57%
5006 16.6 <1% 3% 18% 39% 54%
1339 17.6 <1% 3% 16% 36% 51%
7108 19.0 <1% 1% 11% 30% 44%
3039 19.5 <1% 2% 14% 31% 45%
5892 19.9 <1% 2% 12% 30% 43%
2147 21.9 <1% <1% 7% 21% 33%
7179 24.8 <1% <1% 6% 17% 26%
1746 26.0 <1% <1% 4% 14% 23%
1261 27.1 <1% <1% 3% 11% 20%
4561 27.3 <1% <1% 2% 9% 17%
2102 27.4 <1% <1% 3% 9% 17%
3024 27.6 <1% <1% 2% 9% 17%
3931 28.0 <1% <1% 2% 9% 17%
2584 28.6 <1% <1% 2% 7% 15%
4534 28.9 <1% <1% 3% 10% 17%
2486 29.3 <1% <1% 2% 8% 15%
4079 31.1 <1% <1% <1% 4% 9%
3240 32.5 <1% <1% <1% 4% 8%
7891 34.4 <1% <1% <1% 4% 8%
7767 34.8 <1% <1% <1% 3% 6%
7419 35.0 <1% <1% <1% 4% 8%
587 35.5 <1% <1% <1% 3% 7%
4188 37.2 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
7088 37.4 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
4290 37.8 <1% <1% <1% 3% 5%
5572 38.0 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
2811 38.2 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
3132 38.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
7426 38.7 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
2183 41.0 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
7796 42.3 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
2080 42.4 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
687 42.5 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
5126 42.6 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
4255 42.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
2905 44.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6014 45.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
2881 45.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
5242 46.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4400 46.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
1515 46.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1785 47.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
1939 48.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7725 49.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6390 50.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
442 50.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2375 51.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2662 51.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5526 53.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7895 53.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3481 54.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5515 54.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6608 55.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7567 61.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7529 61.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2643 62.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3792 62.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Galileo
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
1986 5.5 22% 58% 79% 90% 94%
971 6.7 17% 50% 72% 84% 90%
4587 7.9 13% 42% 65% 79% 86%
2974 8.8 10% 36% 60% 76% 83%
179 10.0 7% 29% 53% 70% 79%
2928 11.0 5% 25% 48% 65% 75%
2478 14.3 2% 13% 31% 48% 60%
2152 14.4 2% 12% 30% 49% 61%
5414 14.9 3% 14% 31% 47% 59%
1102 15.1 4% 16% 32% 47% 58%
3998 15.4 1% 9% 25% 43% 56%
2468 15.4 3% 14% 30% 46% 57%
3646 16.1 1% 9% 24% 40% 53%
4414 16.3 2% 13% 28% 43% 52%
2059 16.4 1% 9% 24% 41% 52%
5933 17.1 <1% 7% 21% 37% 50%
7620 17.4 1% 8% 21% 36% 48%
5985 18.2 <1% 7% 19% 33% 44%
5801 18.3 <1% 7% 19% 33% 44%
4089 19.4 <1% 4% 14% 27% 38%
3128 19.6 <1% 5% 15% 28% 39%
4488 23.2 <1% 3% 10% 19% 27%
5431 23.8 <1% 3% 9% 18% 27%
1414 24.6 <1% 2% 7% 14% 22%
114 26.4 <1% 2% 6% 13% 20%
702 26.7 <1% 2% 6% 13% 19%
498 29.1 <1% <1% 3% 8% 13%
6479 29.2 <1% <1% 3% 8% 13%
4469 30.9 <1% <1% 3% 7% 11%
7424 30.9 <1% <1% 2% 5% 9%
4500 32.4 <1% <1% 2% 5% 9%
3250 33.2 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7%
6768 33.5 <1% <1% 1% 3% 6%
3480 34.8 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
7773 34.9 <1% <1% <1% 3% 5%
1538 36.1 <1% <1% <1% 3% 5%
4026 36.7 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
4565 38.4 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
5511 38.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
701 38.7 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
6386 38.8 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
2443 39.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
7409 41.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
6800 41.1 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
6418 43.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1156 43.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5472 45.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6036 45.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4468 47.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
597 47.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4738 48.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2551 49.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1255 49.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1982 50.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5900 50.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
399 52.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
299 54.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6825 54.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7663 55.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7446 57.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7072 57.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6177 57.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7421 59.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6444 60.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7465 61.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7742 62.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7246 64.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Hopper
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
4910 4.3 32% 69% 86% 93% 96%
59 4.8 26% 65% 84% 92% 95%
2122 7.1 10% 44% 70% 84% 90%
744 8.0 7% 37% 64% 80% 87%
2046 8.4 10% 39% 63% 78% 85%
4043 13.1 1% 14% 37% 56% 68%
7433 13.5 2% 16% 37% 55% 66%
4020 14.1 2% 14% 33% 52% 63%
3824 15.1 1% 10% 28% 47% 59%
1425 15.3 1% 12% 30% 46% 58%
7121 15.4 1% 9% 27% 45% 58%
5803 16.0 <1% 8% 24% 42% 54%
4183 16.0 <1% 8% 23% 42% 54%
1477 16.5 <1% 8% 24% 40% 52%
3663 17.8 <1% 6% 19% 35% 47%
4063 19.2 <1% 5% 16% 31% 42%
832 20.2 <1% 5% 16% 28% 39%
4087 20.3 <1% 4% 14% 27% 39%
2976 20.7 <1% 3% 13% 25% 37%
3476 21.0 <1% 6% 16% 28% 38%
3635 22.6 <1% 4% 13% 24% 33%
2158 23.0 <1% 2% 9% 19% 28%
2714 23.8 <1% 2% 9% 19% 29%
3616 25.5 <1% 2% 8% 16% 24%
2992 25.7 <1% 2% 7% 15% 22%
6485 26.7 <1% 2% 7% 14% 21%
6919 28.6 <1% <1% 4% 10% 16%
7451 33.2 <1% <1% 2% 6% 10%
5700 33.4 <1% <1% 1% 4% 8%
1671 34.0 <1% <1% 2% 5% 9%
1311 34.3 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7%
3946 34.5 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7%
1899 35.6 <1% <1% 2% 5% 8%
7427 36.1 <1% <1% 1% 3% 6%
1987 37.3 <1% <1% <1% 3% 5%
2438 38.3 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
6814 38.6 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
3834 38.6 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
4192 38.7 <1% <1% 1% 3% 5%
3735 39.4 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
7443 39.6 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
1072 39.8 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
4499 40.4 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
4550 41.3 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
2357 43.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
691 43.9 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
6934 43.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
5013 44.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6885 46.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
2710 46.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6838 46.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
6064 47.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7461 48.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2637 49.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6506 50.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3794 50.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5022 52.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7635 53.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6988 54.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6907 54.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7447 55.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7787 55.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6704 57.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5887 57.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2441 59.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4013 61.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6413 61.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7607 65.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Newton
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
1323 1.4 78% 97% >99% >99% >99%
846 4.7 6% 60% 88% 97% 99%
180 6.2 5% 47% 76% 90% 95%
973 8.2 1% 30% 62% 81% 89%
1983 9.3 2% 23% 54% 75% 85%
1540 9.4 2% 23% 54% 75% 84%
2910 9.6 1% 22% 51% 73% 84%
2073 10.4 2% 22% 48% 69% 80%
4415 12.2 <1% 10% 34% 59% 74%
604 12.8 <1% 11% 32% 55% 70%
1817 13.3 <1% 13% 33% 53% 66%
842 13.9 <1% 10% 30% 50% 64%
7521 14.1 <1% 10% 28% 49% 63%
2471 14.9 <1% 7% 23% 43% 59%
3005 18.5 <1% 4% 15% 31% 44%
3674 19.3 <1% 1% 9% 23% 37%
5015 19.7 <1% 1% 8% 22% 35%
5109 20.8 <1% 2% 9% 21% 33%
5312 22.1 <1% 1% 8% 19% 31%
233 22.1 <1% 1% 7% 18% 29%
2659 23.2 <1% 2% 8% 19% 28%
5026 25.8 <1% <1% 4% 11% 19%
1539 27.0 <1% <1% 2% 8% 14%
6106 28.9 <1% <1% 2% 6% 12%
624 28.9 <1% <1% 3% 7% 12%
1806 29.9 <1% <1% 1% 5% 10%
6833 30.3 <1% <1% 1% 5% 9%
932 30.4 <1% <1% 2% 5% 10%
6200 32.1 <1% <1% <1% 3% 7%
4153 32.4 <1% <1% 1% 4% 8%
6068 32.5 <1% <1% <1% 3% 6%
3374 32.9 <1% <1% <1% 3% 6%
253 33.0 <1% <1% <1% 3% 6%
5437 34.5 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
3354 34.9 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
5854 36.8 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
2682 36.8 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
4191 37.8 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
4201 40.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6429 40.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
7514 43.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5499 43.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4265 43.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4635 44.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6348 44.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1706 46.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7161 46.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7042 46.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4504 46.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
538 47.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4068 47.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3598 48.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6059 49.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7500 51.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5052 51.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7667 51.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7887 52.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3045 52.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7761 52.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7843 53.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6652 54.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3245 55.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6841 56.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1902 56.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7653 58.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7583 58.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6388 62.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Roebling
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
148 2.3 49% 90% 98% >99% >99%
359 3.2 28% 80% 94% 98% 99%
5190 8.3 5% 35% 64% 80% 87%
3847 8.5 6% 36% 63% 79% 86%
294 10.0 2% 25% 54% 72% 81%
2655 10.5 2% 22% 51% 70% 80%
2341 11.3 1% 19% 46% 65% 76%
4336 12.3 1% 15% 40% 61% 72%
231 14.5 <1% 11% 32% 51% 63%
1771 15.2 <1% 8% 27% 47% 60%
3647 15.6 1% 11% 29% 47% 58%
1658 16.2 <1% 8% 25% 42% 55%
2642 16.3 <1% 8% 24% 42% 55%
5411 16.7 <1% 7% 23% 40% 53%
4005 21.3 <1% 3% 14% 27% 38%
1533 21.6 <1% 3% 12% 25% 35%
1912 21.7 <1% 2% 11% 24% 34%
6803 21.9 <1% 2% 9% 21% 32%
1296 23.6 <1% 3% 11% 22% 31%
1318 25.1 <1% 3% 10% 20% 28%
6647 25.7 <1% 1% 6% 15% 23%
1369 26.3 <1% 1% 7% 15% 22%
2557 27.3 <1% 1% 5% 12% 19%
6304 27.4 <1% <1% 5% 12% 20%
2907 28.5 <1% <1% 5% 12% 18%
1251 28.9 <1% 1% 5% 11% 17%
2412 29.2 <1% <1% 4% 9% 16%
7492 29.8 <1% 1% 5% 11% 17%
6901 30.3 <1% <1% 3% 8% 14%
5332 30.6 <1% <1% 2% 7% 12%
2898 31.8 <1% <1% 2% 7% 12%
4941 33.0 <1% <1% 2% 7% 11%
7498 34.4 <1% <1% 2% 5% 9%
2429 35.3 <1% <1% 1% 4% 7%
5550 36.1 <1% <1% 1% 4% 8%
585 38.8 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
1410 39.0 <1% <1% <1% 3% 5%
2813 39.1 <1% <1% <1% 3% 5%
7458 39.7 <1% <1% <1% 3% 4%
6829 39.8 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
972 40.1 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
7403 41.3 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
3881 42.1 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
7425 43.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
4276 43.1 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
6026 43.1 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
2485 43.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
3243 44.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
5427 44.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
3859 44.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
5842 46.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
4610 46.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
3737 47.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
3991 47.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
568 48.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4965 49.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7525 50.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1566 51.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5059 52.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3366 53.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7459 54.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7565 56.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2415 57.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6695 59.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6364 59.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4639 60.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7906 62.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Turing
Team average rank 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
1619 1.1 90% >99% >99% >99% >99%
254 3.0 7% 87% 97% >99% >99%
3310 5.8 1% 51% 82% 92% 95%
649 7.2 <1% 34% 72% 88% 93%
5199 8.1 <1% 31% 65% 82% 89%
1421 8.3 <1% 28% 64% 82% 89%
3478 10.4 <1% 18% 49% 71% 80%
1726 12.4 <1% 6% 33% 60% 74%
3284 13.1 <1% 9% 35% 57% 69%
2403 14.8 <1% 6% 25% 45% 60%
3937 17.3 <1% 5% 20% 37% 49%
4613 17.6 <1% 5% 19% 35% 48%
4451 17.8 <1% 3% 17% 34% 47%
1868 18.2 <1% 2% 13% 31% 45%
4522 18.6 <1% 4% 16% 32% 44%
3196 19.6 <1% 1% 9% 24% 38%
5012 19.7 <1% 2% 12% 26% 39%
6377 20.4 <1% 1% 9% 24% 35%
1622 20.9 <1% 1% 8% 20% 32%
2582 21.0 <1% 2% 9% 21% 32%
2930 22.2 <1% 1% 8% 21% 31%
4125 22.7 <1% <1% 6% 16% 26%
6672 22.7 <1% <1% 6% 16% 27%
1730 24.1 <1% <1% 4% 13% 22%
5468 25.5 <1% <1% 4% 12% 19%
6144 27.7 <1% <1% 2% 7% 13%
3933 28.6 <1% <1% 2% 6% 12%
1700 29.1 <1% <1% 2% 7% 12%
2839 29.3 <1% <1% 2% 5% 10%
6391 29.6 <1% <1% 2% 6% 11%
2383 30.0 <1% <1% 2% 6% 11%
2556 30.6 <1% <1% 2% 6% 11%
6986 30.6 <1% <1% 2% 5% 10%
6321 32.2 <1% <1% <1% 2% 6%
2733 35.3 <1% <1% <1% 2% 3%
589 35.3 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
5857 37.4 <1% <1% <1% 2% 4%
1094 39.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
6072 39.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
3035 40.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
1683 40.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
6995 44.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
948 45.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7528 45.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5993 45.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4401 46.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6831 47.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6315 49.1 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7724 49.3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3966 49.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5872 50.0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5930 50.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7840 50.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7464 50.8 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7621 51.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5754 51.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6025 53.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4513 53.5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7661 53.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6579 54.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7753 54.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7494 55.2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5805 55.6 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6957 56.9 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5716 57.4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7308 62.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7277 64.7 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 Likes

#3

looks like for Hopper 59 and 744 got some favorable schedules. Ours seems a little bit less favorable :stuck_out_tongue: can’t wait to see how it all shakes out.

2 Likes

#4

Wow 1619 on Turing went from a strong suspicion for 1st seed to almost guaranteed! Talk about schedule strength!

0 Likes

#5

Thanks for these!

0 Likes

#6

I like how Galileo looks like it will be a real fiesta for who ends up at the top.

2 Likes

#7

I doubt our match against them is helping our ranking prediction :slight_smile:

0 Likes

#8

Interesting on Turing. 254 and 3310 so close–what does 1619 do if they rank 1?

1 Like

#9

Get 3 hours of sleep, then regret their decision no matter what they choose :sunglasses:

21 Likes

#10

Can I ask how you’re doing the average rank??

0 Likes

#11

Unless one cycles a significant amount more than the other, I’d assume it’d come down to which climb is more compatible.

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#12

I am sure that many teams would be willing to show gracious professionalism and be willing to help out 1619, if they want to give away their problem. :grinning:

We don’t play with or against 1619 or 3310. But do get to play with 254. There are a lot of other teams in our division that I am looking forward to see. Turing is going to be fun!

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#13

Lambot 3478, will prove you wrong as in the Utah regional, predicted 5th ranked 1st undefeated. Turing will be fun, good luck to everyone.

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#14

I told my team leading up to Utah not to underestimate Lambot! You guys built a great robot this year.

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#15

Yeah 3478 killed it at three events.

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#16

Hi Aiden, welcome to CD!

My simulator does thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of each match of the competition, and it determines each team’s rank in each of those simulations. Finding the average of these ranks gives the average rank listed above.

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#17

What value(s) does it vary for the Monte Carlo simulation

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#18

I see, alright. Well I’m a little disappointed but it is worlds, so I mean, yeah. It’s a cool software! Thanks for sharing!

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#19

The win probabilities and RP probabilities are static, each run of the simulation independently assigns a binary outcome to the winner, the HAB RPs, and the Rocket RPs for each match according to the calculated probabilities for that match.

So it’s only outcomes that are varied, team “strengths” in the various metrics are locked in throughout simulation runs. Eventually I’ll add in varying team strengths (I’m pretty sure this is where most of the overconfidence in predictions comes from) but that’s a huge effort that I need to approach carefully, and I have some other improvements I probably want to make first.

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#20

Imagine 1619/3310 picking a small, drive on the platform HAB 3 climber as their third bot and double SUCCing…

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