Here is a snapshot of who my event simulator believes will be in the top 8 at the end of each Houston event. The percentages here represent the proportion of simulations in which the given team ends up in the top 8. This means for example that a likelihood of 0% does not mean a team is mathematically eliminated from the top 8.
Carver
team top 8 likelihood
1690 100%
971 100%
2122 99%
987 96%
3925 52%
3238 52%
6530 51%
5468 49%
231 39%
1671 31%
6502 15%
1700 15%
1425 14%
932 13%
2359 9%
3674 8%
5511 7%
4334 6%
2992 6%
5293 6%
2471 6%
4063 5%
1937 4%
3646 3%
1648 3%
2637 2%
1746 2%
4910 2%
6348 2%
3339 1%
1266 1%
2930 1%
3024 1%
3802 0%
599 0%
3196 0%
3128 0%
4911 0%
1577 0%
2059 0%
179 0%
1311 0%
1902 0%
2556 0%
2557 0%
2974 0%
3035 0%
3256 0%
3490 0%
3648 0%
3721 0%
4091 0%
4125 0%
4501 0%
4990 0%
5006 0%
5526 0%
5607 0%
5627 0%
5985 0%
6133 0%
6314 0%
6396 0%
6414 0%
6443 0%
6695 0%
6704 0%
Galileo
team top 8 likelihood
3005 82%
492 75%
2333 70%
1538 63%
2486 59%
4080 49%
368 48%
3478 40%
5074 36%
498 34%
5654 33%
587 29%
6547 23%
6445 20%
4499 19%
2231 14%
5437 14%
6579 13%
3635 10%
4388 9%
4537 9%
4355 9%
701 7%
6061 5%
86 4%
5109 4%
4516 4%
386 3%
5572 3%
2152 2%
2415 2%
6357 2%
4534 2%
3966 1%
3211 1%
2630 0%
4364 0%
5414 0%
6404 0%
2576 0%
3045 0%
192 0%
1817 0%
3303 0%
3574 0%
4010 0%
4112 0%
199 0%
662 0%
2135 0%
3507 0%
3512 0%
3959 0%
4201 0%
4335 0%
4841 0%
4904 0%
5190 0%
5411 0%
5696 0%
6171 0%
6191 0%
6411 0%
6464 0%
6474 0%
6658 0%
6739 0%
Hopper
team top 8 likelihood
1619 100%
3309 96%
2848 78%
4488 78%
3835 69%
832 66%
4613 50%
5458 49%
5588 41%
3314 25%
604 23%
3132 18%
1868 15%
2910 14%
6366 12%
2682 12%
4941 10%
1778 8%
2903 8%
4944 7%
2230 3%
4400 3%
2444 3%
4915 2%
1836 2%
2587 2%
5431 2%
5516 2%
281 1%
2383 1%
5429 0%
1410 0%
4401 0%
5818 0%
6340 0%
2896 0%
4005 0%
1912 0%
2996 0%
4403 0%
4965 0%
114 0%
1319 0%
1744 0%
2543 0%
2583 0%
2950 0%
3039 0%
3562 0%
3931 0%
4513 0%
4635 0%
5002 0%
5454 0%
5496 0%
5663 0%
5705 0%
5737 0%
5887 0%
6023 0%
6055 0%
6305 0%
6429 0%
6434 0%
6442 0%
6517 0%
6754 0%
Newton
team top 8 likelihood
118 100%
330 99%
1678 87%
3255 74%
5295 70%
180 62%
2073 57%
3647 52%
3008 39%
4469 29%
3663 27%
5842 25%
997 22%
4486 11%
704 8%
900 6%
4662 5%
5839 4%
2839 4%
159 4%
1533 4%
6369 3%
4188 3%
3473 2%
6652 2%
4918 1%
3489 1%
4189 1%
79 0%
6418 0%
60 0%
120 0%
589 0%
696 0%
744 0%
968 0%
1156 0%
1255 0%
1294 0%
1369 0%
1622 0%
1745 0%
2096 0%
2240 0%
3189 0%
3218 0%
3335 0%
3527 0%
3556 0%
3616 0%
3735 0%
3743 0%
3847 0%
4013 0%
4320 0%
5012 0%
5160 0%
5635 0%
5869 0%
5892 0%
5930 0%
6025 0%
6321 0%
6377 0%
6430 0%
6546 0%
6666 0%
Roebling
team top 8 likelihood
973 98%
1574 95%
365 87%
4592 75%
6705 63%
115 47%
1339 44%
2478 41%
4276 34%
3653 28%
5970 24%
955 24%
3316 16%
1477 15%
624 15%
3229 14%
2642 12%
1002 10%
418 9%
2655 7%
4590 5%
5515 5%
2928 5%
4265 5%
3824 4%
488 2%
435 2%
1011 2%
1414 2%
3991 1%
175 1%
2403 1%
4561 1%
6508 1%
4219 1%
5472 1%
2881 1%
8 1%
1482 1%
5614 1%
3140 0%
6361 0%
2468 0%
5499 0%
3826 0%
6560 0%
441 0%
585 0%
2183 0%
2485 0%
2905 0%
3158 0%
3402 0%
3834 0%
4060 0%
4191 0%
4371 0%
4723 0%
5026 0%
5803 0%
5816 0%
6144 0%
6304 0%
6325 0%
6388 0%
6409 0%
Turing
team top 8 likelihood
1296 90%
3476 83%
16 71%
4451 70%
3937 56%
2147 53%
3737 50%
1318 42%
1661 36%
1323 32%
108 30%
3103 26%
3997 23%
399 17%
2352 14%
6554 12%
2046 12%
5104 11%
5417 10%
948 10%
1983 9%
1523 7%
2473 6%
4061 6%
4468 5%
283 3%
3794 3%
2158 3%
1595 2%
6390 1%
4135 1%
6413 1%
2990 1%
3245 1%
1884 1%
4738 0%
1165 0%
5908 0%
3006 0%
4206 0%
5829 0%
6417 0%
2907 0%
4586 0%
5648 0%
1287 0%
1540 0%
2102 0%
2221 0%
2723 0%
2761 0%
3019 0%
3219 0%
3337 0%
4270 0%
4587 0%
4610 0%
5124 0%
5677 0%
5802 0%
5889 0%
5960 0%
6038 0%
6225 0%
6384 0%
6431 0%
6640 0%
There aren’t many locks just yet. 1690, 2122, 971, 1619, 118, 330, and 973 seem to be the safest bets.
Interesting. Galileo looks like a slugfest.
I think it might be suffering from a poor data set right now. I’ve been working with 6547a bit this year and they’re decent, but just a passive gear and 5 ish second climb. Though with a decent center great auto. Still, Given they’re up against 701 and 492 their next two matches, I think 25% odds of top 8 are slightly optimistic.
Lunchtime update.
Carver:
team top 8 likelihood
971 100%
1690 100%
2122 100%
987 97%
231 92%
1671 92%
3925 46%
5468 39%
1425 38%
3238 20%
4334 18%
1937 15%
4063 8%
1746 5%
4911 5%
3339 4%
2930 3%
5511 3%
6530 2%
5293 2%
6502 2%
1648 2%
1700 2%
2471 1%
4910 1%
2992 1%
932 1%
2059 0%
3674 0%
3802 0%
179 0%
599 0%
1266 0%
1311 0%
1577 0%
1902 0%
2359 0%
2556 0%
2557 0%
2637 0%
2974 0%
3024 0%
3035 0%
3128 0%
3196 0%
3256 0%
3490 0%
3646 0%
3648 0%
3721 0%
4091 0%
4125 0%
4501 0%
4990 0%
5006 0%
5526 0%
5607 0%
5627 0%
5985 0%
6133 0%
6314 0%
6348 0%
6396 0%
6414 0%
6443 0%
6695 0%
6704 0%
Galileo:
team top 8 likelihood
492 95%
3005 94%
498 81%
2333 76%
1538 73%
2486 69%
4537 58%
2231 52%
5437 49%
587 38%
3478 32%
6547 25%
368 17%
4499 11%
4080 10%
386 6%
5654 5%
3045 4%
701 3%
4516 1%
5074 1%
4355 1%
6445 0%
6579 0%
86 0%
3635 0%
192 0%
199 0%
662 0%
1817 0%
2135 0%
2152 0%
2415 0%
2576 0%
2630 0%
3211 0%
3303 0%
3507 0%
3512 0%
3574 0%
3959 0%
3966 0%
4010 0%
4112 0%
4201 0%
4335 0%
4364 0%
4388 0%
4534 0%
4841 0%
4904 0%
5109 0%
5190 0%
5411 0%
5414 0%
5572 0%
5696 0%
6061 0%
6171 0%
6191 0%
6357 0%
6404 0%
6411 0%
6464 0%
6474 0%
6658 0%
6739 0%
Hopper:
team top 8 likelihood
1619 100%
2848 97%
832 94%
3309 90%
4488 88%
4613 75%
5458 59%
604 36%
3835 31%
3314 29%
1778 24%
5588 20%
4941 18%
3132 17%
2682 8%
2903 5%
4400 3%
6340 2%
1836 2%
4944 1%
6366 1%
4005 0%
281 0%
2230 0%
4635 0%
5818 0%
114 0%
1319 0%
1410 0%
1744 0%
1868 0%
1912 0%
2383 0%
2444 0%
2543 0%
2583 0%
2587 0%
2896 0%
2910 0%
2950 0%
2996 0%
3039 0%
3562 0%
3931 0%
4401 0%
4403 0%
4513 0%
4915 0%
4965 0%
5002 0%
5429 0%
5431 0%
5454 0%
5496 0%
5516 0%
5663 0%
5705 0%
5737 0%
5887 0%
6023 0%
6055 0%
6305 0%
6429 0%
6434 0%
6442 0%
6517 0%
6754 0%
Newton:
team top 8 likelihood
118 100%
330 100%
1678 99%
3008 98%
180 76%
3473 60%
2073 57%
3647 47%
997 31%
3663 28%
704 26%
5295 22%
3255 20%
4469 16%
4486 7%
4189 6%
5842 5%
5839 1%
2096 0%
900 0%
5635 0%
6418 0%
159 0%
1156 0%
4662 0%
4918 0%
60 0%
79 0%
120 0%
589 0%
696 0%
744 0%
968 0%
1255 0%
1294 0%
1369 0%
1533 0%
1622 0%
1745 0%
2240 0%
2839 0%
3189 0%
3218 0%
3335 0%
3489 0%
3527 0%
3556 0%
3616 0%
3735 0%
3743 0%
3847 0%
4013 0%
4188 0%
4320 0%
5012 0%
5160 0%
5869 0%
5892 0%
5930 0%
6025 0%
6321 0%
6369 0%
6377 0%
6430 0%
6546 0%
6652 0%
6666 0%
Roebling:
team top 8 likelihood
973 100%
1574 98%
365 87%
1339 86%
4592 84%
6705 80%
4276 79%
115 44%
4265 28%
1011 26%
3229 21%
3316 17%
3653 14%
2478 13%
1002 9%
955 6%
5970 3%
1477 2%
1482 1%
4561 1%
2928 1%
488 1%
6508 1%
8 0%
418 0%
624 0%
2642 0%
2655 0%
4590 0%
5515 0%
175 0%
435 0%
441 0%
585 0%
1414 0%
2183 0%
2403 0%
2468 0%
2485 0%
2881 0%
2905 0%
3140 0%
3158 0%
3402 0%
3824 0%
3826 0%
3834 0%
3991 0%
4060 0%
4191 0%
4219 0%
4371 0%
4723 0%
5026 0%
5472 0%
5499 0%
5614 0%
5803 0%
5816 0%
6144 0%
6304 0%
6325 0%
6361 0%
6388 0%
6409 0%
6560 0%
Turing:
team top 8 likelihood
1296 100%
16 78%
3737 78%
5417 72%
1318 60%
1323 60%
3103 51%
4451 49%
1661 40%
5104 29%
3997 28%
108 25%
1523 24%
3937 23%
4468 17%
2147 14%
399 12%
3476 9%
6554 8%
4135 7%
4061 4%
2046 4%
4206 4%
2907 3%
3245 1%
1165 1%
2352 1%
6417 0%
5829 0%
1540 0%
2990 0%
3794 0%
5889 0%
6390 0%
283 0%
948 0%
1287 0%
1595 0%
1884 0%
1983 0%
2102 0%
2158 0%
2221 0%
2473 0%
2723 0%
2761 0%
3006 0%
3019 0%
3219 0%
3337 0%
4270 0%
4586 0%
4587 0%
4610 0%
4738 0%
5124 0%
5648 0%
5677 0%
5802 0%
5908 0%
5960 0%
6038 0%
6225 0%
6384 0%
6413 0%
6431 0%
6640 0%
Does your model predict the most likely 1 seed in each division?
Yes it does.
Carver
team 1 seed likelihood
1690 47%
971 43%
2122 10%
987 0%
1671 0%
1425 0%
3238 0%
5468 0%
Galileo
team 1 seed likelihood
3005 36%
492 34%
498 19%
2231 4%
1538 3%
2333 2%
3478 2%
4537 1%
Hopper
team 1 seed likelihood
1619 98%
2848 1%
3309 1%
5458 1%
3314 0%
4488 0%
832 0%
1778 0%
Newton
team 1 seed likelihood
330 72%
118 27%
1678 1%
3008 0%
180 0%
3255 0%
2073 0%
3473 0%
Roebling
team 1 seed likelihood
973 79%
365 10%
1574 9%
6705 1%
4592 1%
2642 0%
1339 0%
115 0%
Turing
team 1 seed likelihood
1296 82%
16 8%
1318 7%
3737 2%
4451 1%
3103 0%
1323 0%
5104 0%
Thank you! Super interesting in a few divisions.
honestly, it really was. Our team 2415 has not the greatest schedule, so it was tough seeding in a good position. We had to fight hard in galileo finals with phoenix and 2630 to pull out a slim win over the 1 seed which had 1538 holy cows and 492 titan robotics. They almost got their 4th rotor spinning at the last second. If the match at gone on 2 seconds longer 1538 would have gotten their last 2 spins on the 4 rotor gear and got the 4th rotor turning since they had all the gears they needed for a 4th rotor in the airship and been the galileo division winners instead of the 6th seed alliance featuring us, phoenix and thunderbolts.
Is It possible for you to post what it had as #1 seed likelihood as of thursday night for comparison? Curious how the tool looks in hindsight.
Sure, I haven’t yet added this feature to my published simulator, but I have some hacks I can do. Note that I changed the model parameters after Houston. Most notably, I increased the maximum likelihood of a rotor ranking point from 28% to 64% between v7 and v8. This means that my rank predictions for really good gear scorers were probably low for Houston, and that problem should be much less prevalent in v8.
Anyway, here were what v7 of my simulator would have predicted as of match 50 for each Houston event (bolded team ended up seeding first).
Carver:
team 1 seed
**1690 92%**
2122 5%
971 2%
987 0%
3238 0%
3925 0%
5468 0%
6502 0%
1671 0%
231 0%
4334 0%
6530 0%
1937 0%
1425 0%
1700 0%
932 0%
2359 0%
2992 0%
3674 0%
5511 0%
4063 0%
5293 0%
2471 0%
3646 0%
1648 0%
1746 0%
4910 0%
2637 0%
3339 0%
2930 0%
6348 0%
1266 0%
3024 0%
599 0%
3196 0%
4911 0%
179 0%
1311 0%
1577 0%
1902 0%
2059 0%
2556 0%
2557 0%
2974 0%
3035 0%
3128 0%
3256 0%
3490 0%
3648 0%
3721 0%
3802 0%
4091 0%
4125 0%
4501 0%
4990 0%
5006 0%
5526 0%
5607 0%
5627 0%
5985 0%
6133 0%
6314 0%
6396 0%
6414 0%
6443 0%
6695 0%
6704 0%
Galileo:
team 1 seed
3005 23%
**492 23%**
2333 15%
1538 7%
2486 8%
4080 6%
3478 5%
498 2%
587 1%
5654 2%
2231 2%
4537 1%
6547 1%
4499 1%
6445 2%
368 1%
5437 0%
6579 1%
3635 0%
701 1%
4355 0%
5074 0%
4516 0%
86 0%
6061 0%
386 0%
5109 0%
5572 0%
2415 0%
3966 0%
2152 0%
6357 0%
4388 0%
4534 0%
2576 0%
3211 0%
4364 0%
3045 0%
2630 0%
5414 0%
3507 0%
4112 0%
4904 0%
5190 0%
6404 0%
192 0%
199 0%
662 0%
1817 0%
2135 0%
3303 0%
3512 0%
3574 0%
3959 0%
4010 0%
4201 0%
4335 0%
4841 0%
5411 0%
5696 0%
6171 0%
6191 0%
6411 0%
6464 0%
6474 0%
6658 0%
6739 0%
Hopper:
team 1 seed
**1619 80%**
3309 13%
4488 4%
2848 1%
3835 1%
832 1%
4613 1%
5458 0%
5588 0%
3314 0%
604 0%
2910 0%
3132 0%
1868 0%
6366 0%
4941 0%
2903 0%
2682 0%
4944 0%
1778 0%
2444 0%
2230 0%
4400 0%
1836 0%
2587 0%
281 0%
5431 0%
1410 0%
2383 0%
4401 0%
4915 0%
4965 0%
5818 0%
1744 0%
1912 0%
2896 0%
6340 0%
4403 0%
4635 0%
5429 0%
6305 0%
114 0%
1319 0%
2543 0%
2583 0%
2950 0%
2996 0%
3039 0%
3562 0%
3931 0%
4005 0%
4513 0%
5002 0%
5454 0%
5496 0%
5516 0%
5663 0%
5705 0%
5737 0%
5887 0%
6023 0%
6055 0%
6429 0%
6434 0%
6442 0%
6517 0%
6754 0%
Newton:
team 1 seed
**118 67%**
330 25%
3008 2%
1678 3%
4469 1%
5295 1%
2073 0%
180 0%
704 0%
3647 0%
3255 0%
5842 0%
4486 0%
3663 0%
159 0%
997 0%
4662 0%
900 0%
1533 0%
2839 0%
5839 0%
4188 0%
4189 0%
6369 0%
3473 0%
3489 0%
4918 0%
60 0%
6652 0%
79 0%
6418 0%
120 0%
589 0%
696 0%
744 0%
968 0%
1156 0%
1255 0%
1294 0%
1369 0%
1622 0%
1745 0%
2096 0%
2240 0%
3189 0%
3218 0%
3335 0%
3527 0%
3556 0%
3616 0%
3735 0%
3743 0%
3847 0%
4013 0%
4320 0%
5012 0%
5160 0%
5635 0%
5869 0%
5892 0%
5930 0%
6025 0%
6321 0%
6377 0%
6430 0%
6546 0%
6666 0%
Roebling:
team 1 seed
**973 60%**
1574 17%
365 10%
6705 5%
115 2%
1339 3%
4592 1%
2478 1%
4276 0%
1477 0%
3653 0%
955 0%
5970 0%
3316 0%
2642 0%
4590 0%
2655 0%
3229 0%
1011 0%
1002 0%
2928 0%
4561 0%
624 0%
4265 0%
418 0%
488 0%
3824 0%
8 0%
1482 0%
4219 0%
6508 0%
1414 0%
5515 0%
5499 0%
5614 0%
2881 0%
5472 0%
5803 0%
6361 0%
175 0%
435 0%
441 0%
585 0%
2183 0%
2403 0%
2468 0%
2485 0%
2905 0%
3140 0%
3158 0%
3402 0%
3826 0%
3834 0%
3991 0%
4060 0%
4191 0%
4371 0%
4723 0%
5026 0%
5816 0%
6144 0%
6304 0%
6325 0%
6388 0%
6409 0%
6560 0%
Turing:
team 1 seed
**1296 76%**
3476 9%
4451 5%
2147 2%
3737 2%
3937 2%
16 1%
1318 1%
1323 1%
1661 0%
108 1%
3103 0%
3997 0%
2352 0%
2046 0%
5104 0%
6554 0%
5417 0%
1595 0%
2473 0%
4061 0%
4468 0%
1523 0%
283 0%
399 0%
3794 0%
948 0%
4135 0%
2158 0%
1983 0%
2990 0%
1884 0%
4738 0%
1165 0%
3006 0%
2907 0%
3245 0%
5648 0%
5124 0%
5829 0%
5908 0%
6390 0%
6417 0%
2723 0%
4270 0%
5677 0%
5889 0%
1287 0%
1540 0%
2102 0%
2221 0%
2761 0%
3019 0%
3219 0%
3337 0%
4206 0%
4586 0%
4587 0%
4610 0%
5802 0%
5960 0%
6038 0%
6225 0%
6384 0%
6413 0%
6431 0%
6640 0%
Don’t draw too big of conclusions from a sample size of 6.