How many gears will top 10% of robots be capable of scoring in a match?

I was really wondering what the opinion here is about the gear scoring capabilities of the upper tier robots at week 1 events. Obviously gear scoring capability will have a huge impact on the make up of an average eliminations alliance, since it would apparently be incredibly difficult to win a a playoff match if your alliance fails to complete 12 gear cycles, while the other alliance collects the 140 point bonus for the 4th rotor.

Is this by districts, regionals, or worlds??

Edited post, Week 1.

I have a feeling that its going to be split between districts and regionals, even at week one, especially when the competition field can get a bit shallow at district events.

6-8 for top 10% of teams week 1 seem right to me. Closer to the 6 number. I expect the 10-50 bracket to do 3-4 and than anyone below at 2 or 0.

I definitely agree with the 6-8 in week 1 events. Most of those will likely have an omnidirectional drive of some kind, and there will likely be minimal defense (as in qualifications it makes more sense to play offense than defense).

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I decided to be an optimist, and went for 3-5. I’ve seen too many robot games, I guess.

6-8 is 5459’s current goal. I’m saying 9 to 11 because someone will manage to pull it off at some point. Not too much point to being able to run that many cycles however, as you still need the support from an alliance partner to pull off that last rotor, but it does give them some more time to play defense I guess.

My advice to any team doing gears: do one in auto, 5 or 6 in teleop, and try to climb. If most gearbots can pull that off, then the potential for great elim matches is there, especially if two such gearbots get placed with a great ball scorer.

Edit: I’m talking later weeks going into District Champs here. Misread the title a bit. With the early weeks, I’d say 6-8 is top 10%. I’m hoping it’s not, but I’m guessing that’s how it will be.

Now, an interesting question: will gearbots (no fuel at all) be able to seed high enough to make their own alliance? Will we see triple cycling gears, or 2 gears + 1 defense going on? At higher levels, of course, bots will be good enough that a fuel bot that can get 40 kpa combined with two gearbots that can do 4 rotors will definitely be the makeup of some (if not most) of the top alliances, but I think lower level play has the potential to be interesting from an alliance makeup perspective as well. It’s definitely not a matter of 3 robots doing everything, as was the case in Stronghold or Ultimate Ascent, but more of a Recycle Rush type thing, with two specialized roles and one all arounder (human player bots = gearbots, landfill bot = fuel shooter). Not saying this game will be as bad as Recycle Rush (main flaws there was lack of excitement and robot interaction, design and alliance makeup were rather good that year), just noting similarities.

Week 1 will see many pizza box robots that have nothing to do but harass the top gear cyclers. 2017 could be the return of the bash fest.

… ^ My fear also.

Gear scoring capability will often be unrealized, because “I can’t score gears so I’ll just harass you.” Like stacking in 2003.*

*I really hope it’s not that bad.

Thiss ^^^^

6 cycle frisbee bots were rare and with diminishing returns of rotors 6 cycle bots will be even more rare this year.

Also the top bots will also understand the the 40kpa will give them a guaranteed extra point.

6-7 will be the consistent top for gears cycling this season (with consistent 6-7s maybe occasionally breaking that in a match). It could see some of those teams reaching that range at their first event. However, it will be so rare that I don’t want to answer without checking who’s playing in Week 1. I don’t expect there to be any dark horses in that group at first events. We will know their names.

Caveat 1: The big issue here is that teams capable of scoring 6g7 gears often won’t, because the last few won’t be useful depending on who else on your alliance is running gears. So even when these folks do play, it probably won’t show up in their typical scores/OPRs until later when they regularly have another reliable gear runner on alliance. Fortunately the OP thought to ask about capability in a match. :slight_smile:

Caveat 2: On the other side, I do expect top gear runners overall to do somewhat better than top 2013 frisbee cyclers, because other folks will drop gears. If you count scoring drops, I could see fluke matchups that make this sort of range look easy for top gear specialists with floor pickups. There will be teams with bad gear mechanisms in early qualifying matches that’re shoving gear after gear through the feeder slot to no avail–and the opposing top gear specialist will say “why, thank you, I was hungry too”. You could see all 18 hit the floor and 12 picked up in really lopsided games. I doubt, however, that many gear specialists will get that lucky when they really need it (e.g. the guys they’re worried about losing to in elims shouldn’t be dropping often anyway). So that one is difficult to quantify if not to envision, as it really relies on knowing who else will screw up.

Anyway. As for how many gears the bottom-ranked gear robot in the top 10% across all Week 1 events will score? Nothing like any that. I voted 3-5, and I doubt it’ll be 5. Top 10% is a massive range for Week 1.

As far as top gear robots turning to shooting in teleop to get 40kPa, maybe. But if you’re a 6-7 cycle gear robot capable of getting 40kPa, you’re probably capable of getting most of it in auton.

I genuinely do not believe a single team will score 12 gears by themselves. Prove me wrong.

I would be shocked if any robot did 9 gear cycles (loading station to lift) in a match ever.