How much turn over from year to year at regionals

I am a mentor of 5348 and 5 year attendee of the Lake Superior regional and have been thinking more and more of the regional this year. I feel like some of the typical teams that have been there in the past few years are not there this year and curious on how much turnover a regional typically has? A bit of insight on the team I mentor with is our 5 years of results since attending the Lake Superior regional.

2023: Ranked 4th, on 2nd alliance, placed 2nd … MN state entrant and 1st place alliance
2022: Ranked 36, on 3rd alliance, semi finals 3/4
2020: Ranked 3rd, on 3rd alliance, placed 2nd (covid no championships or state but qualified)
2019: Ranked 14th, on 4th alliance, placed 2nd (championships and state)
2018: Ranked 26 not drafted

10 of the top 20 ranked teams will not be in attendance this year. I know new teams will step in and fill the void and other teams will improve and take those spots and this is the beauty of FRC but was curious if that is a typical turnover amount for a regional? Is it good to go to different regionals each year so kids get a different experience or is it good to go to the same place so they get familiar with that one and the teams which consistently attend it? We have been a one regional team up to this point and were hoping for 2 this year it just did not work out as the new Granite City Regional filled up.

top 20 rankings from last year and which teams are back 50% of the top 20 ranked teams are not back this year. I know ranking is not everything but something I could grab some quick data with.

1714- no (champions in 2023)
2847- yes
2264- no
5348- yes
6045- no (champions in 2023, best robot there)
4728- no (MN state champion alliance)
5690- yes
7103-no
1816- yes
7068- yes
6145- no
2574- no
3042- no
5826- yes
4511- yes
3122- no
2531- yes
93- yes
2530- no
8836- yes

2024 notable additions to Lake Superior
930- won 2 regionals last year, IRI been in einstein’s, a top midwest team
2052- won the regional last time they attended it in 2022 and always one of the best teams in Minnesota

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Totally depends on team, where you are, and opportunity cost.

1675 is in Milwaukee, so it would be silly for us to not go to the Wisconsin regional every year. For a second regional we travel and once we are traveling that traveling doesn’t really matter to us whether we go to Chicago, or elsewhere in wisconsin, or MN, etc (traveling though, boarding and food can greatly vary from place to place). We did Midwest in chicago for a number of years but have been all around, from pittsburgh to st louis to ohio to Duluth.

Duluth is an interesting registration situation. With there being two events in the same venue at the same time, there’s often some swapping between them - in fact, half of the difference you noted is due to teams being in Northern Lights instead. Often Lake Superior will fill up first, with Northern Lights filling up second - meaning teams that preference them in that order may end up with their second pick one year and their first pick the following year.

To add onto that, half of the remaining difference is attending Granite City in St. Cloud - a brand new regional this year. Due to geography and timing, this new regional is fairly attractive to a number of teams in North Western MN that may have done back-to-back last year. Any time a new regional is added or one is moved, it can impact registration at all of the surrounding events!

And then you have some normal amount of turnover. For example, my team has done Duluth for our travel regional more than anyplace else. Sometimes in Lake Superior, sometimes in Northern Lights. We’ve also ended up “shut out” of those, with them filling during first round and us ending up in another event (Iowa or Great Northern) instead because they still had space. This year, there was a required school retreat for half of our team the week of Duluth (a retreat that got rescheduled two weeks ago…), so we never even preferenced it and went straight to Great Northern. It’s turnover that can’t be predicted, but you do see happen regularly.

If you look over the history of the Duluth regionals, I count only 5 Minnesota teams that have been there every year since Lake Superior first started in 2011 (37/41 teams were from MN that year): 1816, 2052, 2512, 2526, and 3294 . While we draw a fair number of WI teams each year, the majority are still from MN!

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6045 jumped to the other side since we beat @pntbll1313 in the Double DECCer so we figured Northern Lights must be the easier event… Weirdly I actually do think Lake Superior is stronger this season with all the changes, especially after seeing 5348’s bot at Week 0!

In reality I don’t think there’s a consistent methodology for choosing events between teams.

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That’s the situation for 2052. We love it up in Duluth and will happily take either regional we’re accepted to.

Agreed the Lake Superior field looks very strong and plans on continuing the streak of winning a the double DECCer. See you there :wink:

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There’s so many factors. If it isn’t the closest regional for a team, expect “away” regional choice to change over time, and from an outsider perspective, seemingly at random.

We’re in San Diego, and we used to do a second regional at Sacramento (we also realized we were just being annihilated by all the silicon valley power house teams) because of the different weeks they were scheduled in. They SDR changed and they would have been too close in time to each other (back to back weekends I think), so we changed it up and went to a different one that was further away (Idaho, then Utah the next year, then North LA, now Port Hueneme).

Teams also see “easy” regional, and then all try to go there the next year, except then it becomes a difficult one.

We have moved around a lot over the years. North Star, 10K Lakes, Lake Superior, Northern Lights, Great Northern, 7 Rivers, Iowa, and Granite City. Kids want to start going further - and now that we have a ‘home’ regional in St Cloud, it may provide more opportunity for us in the future.

I don’t have a favorite, all have provided their moments - good and bad. Although 2014 North Star is still one that I cannot go back and watch.

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Exactly, we always go to Iowa, and that plus external events (can’t do back-2-back, unable to rent a bus during spring break, etc), play a part in which second regional we go to (along with maybe not getting our first choice in the draw). We’ve been to Duluth, the Twin Cities, Kansas City and Seven Rivers in recent memory. This year it ended up being Sedalia.

Very Interesting, Excited to see Knightkrawler back and Mukwonago Bears coming in as well, Hopefully I’ll see you guys next week best of luck at LSR!!!