How important do you think Autonomous will be this year?
Very.
If you can’t consistently score high on auto, don’t expect to be an elite, or even a very good, team.
Depends where you’re playing…
Personally I think even autonomous has been important although some will argue with me on that!
On the low row not so much since it only give you an extra point but on the mid and top it will give you an edge.
Autonomous could multiply your points by a bit, especially if your alliance does double logo top row with 3 uber-tubes up top.
Autonomous will be huge because scoring one uber-tube high in autonomous can turn a logo worth 18 points into a logo worth 30 points (6 from auto and 6 from the multipliers), the same as a winning mini-bot. If you get two teams each scoring an ubertube on one high logo, then you turn a logo worth 18 into a logo worth 42, and that with only 3 telop tubes and 5 tubes total. Without any ubertubes it would take 2 top row logos plus a 3 random tubes in the middle to match this score. That’s 9 tubes that need to be placed in telop in comparison to 3. Auto gives a team huge advantage in the tube section, giving them a little bit more leeway in the minibot race.
Consider the fact that two logos on the top row are worth 36 points, but with three ubertubes those same two logos are worth 54 points PLUS the 18 points for autonomous scoring = 72 points…
Three ubertubes scored (assuming logos go on top of them) edges out the fastest minibot by six points.
Conclusion based on this simplistic analysis: Autonomous will be huge.
Alternate conclusion based on how many robots I usually see at the AZ regional being capable of scoring in autonomous: Autonomous will be insignificant at many regionals
Our team thought enough about autonomous that we were able to do this very consistently 1 week before bagging.
With that being said I agree with Squirrel: It all depends on where you’re playing.
Expanding on that thought I’ll add that it also depends on which week you’re playing. I predict autonomous activity to get much better in subsequent Regionals. Just like in years past.
Less robots able to score in autonomous makes it a bigger advantage for those that can IMO.
Autonomous won’t determine winners of matches nearly as much as it did in Aim High. Neither are the rewards so trivial as to make hardly any difference, as was the case in Triple Play. This year it’s somewhere in between. An autonomous score gives the alliance an advantage, but it is not an advantage that is insurmountable. I think it’s a good balance this year.
Now that I run trough the numbers it seems like the autonomus is a good point boost but wouldn’t be enough to upstage something as big as the minibots, but still valuable. Assuming that there are two strong alliances that will all hang two logos each on the top row ubertubes are worth 12 points. From what I’ve seen in week 0 matches I think strong alliances can score an ubertube a (top) rack easily enough but to score 2 on the same top rack was hard. That 12 points could really make a difference with two closely matched alliances.
By the numbers an extra 12 points couldn’t change the outcome of a minibot race, however an upertube under a top row logo is equal to an entire middle row logo. The ubertube is one tube that essentially holds the value of three tubes plus the time to score them minus the ability to score them on the top row.
Assuming that you can hang a logo on top of it, each ubertube on the top row is worth 12 points (6 for the ubertube itself, 6 for doubling the value of the tube that covers it which then gets re-doubled for being part of a logo).
The minibot is worth 30, 20, 15, or 10 points.
Do the math (assume for a moment that each alliance scores the same number of tubes during the teleoperated period, and that each ubertube is covered with a logo):
#Ubertubes - MinibotFinish1 - MinibotFinish2 - TotalBonusPoints
0 - 1st - 2nd - 50
0 - 1st - 3rd - 45
0 - 1st - 4th - 40
0 - 1st - DNF - 30
0 - 2nd - 3rd - 35
0 - 2nd - 4th - 30
0 - 2nd - DNF - 20
0 - 3rd - 4th - 25
0 - 3rd - DNF - 15
0 - DNF - DNF - 0
1 - 1st - 2nd - 62
1 - 1st - 3rd - 57
1 - 1st - 4th - 52
1 - 1st - DNF - 42
1 - 2nd - 3rd - 47
1 - 2nd - 4th - 42
1 - 2nd - DNF - 32
1 - 3rd - 4th - 37
1 - 3rd - DNF - 27
1 - DNF - DNF - 12
2 - 1st - 2nd - 74
2 - 1st - 3rd - 69
2 - 1st - 4th - 64
2 - 1st - DNF - 54
2 - 2nd - 3rd - 59
2 - 2nd - 4th - 54
2 - 2nd - DNF - 44
2 - 3rd - 4th - 49
2 - 3rd - DNF - 39
2 - DNF - DNF - 24
3 - 1st - 2nd - 86
3 - 1st - 3rd - 81
3 - 1st - 4th - 76
3 - 1st - DNF - 66
3 - 2nd - 3rd - 71
3 - 2nd - 4th - 66
3 - 2nd - DNF - 56
3 - 3rd - 4th - 61
3 - 3rd - DNF - 51
3 - DNF - DNF - 36
Now analyze until your heart’s content. If your opponent has the two fastest minibots in the world, but doesn’t score in autonomous mode, then an alliance that scores 3 ubertubes merely needs to get one minibot up the pole in 10 seconds to gain the edge in “bonus points”.
I also want to make a prediction: all season, no alliance will ever lose a match if they place 1st and 2nd in the minibot race and score all 3 ubertubes on the top row (ignoring penalties and red cards).
Autonomy is a public statement. It shows dominance over the other team by saying that they have a very accurate and intuitive robot. The other alliance we were playing against all simultaneously scored the ubertube on the top peg during autonomous period. I must say, we were freaking out. It is a public statement. It is psychological “warfare”. If you see 3 teams score simultaneously, you know it would be a tough alliance to beat.
This is why we do the math…
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_V9jgUptcTu0/TU26BRDXE2I/AAAAAAAAAqo/k5b-J8YR-Ns/s400/Scoring+Matrix.jpg
Anything you do in autonomous makes your teleoperated period easier. If you have arm presets, automatic targeting, etc, etc, you will have a more accurate – and thus more successful – robot in most cases.
In elims as important as the minibot.
Very important. If there is one uber tube on the top row under a completed logo, the logo is worth 30 points! I thik it will be essential.
Something I noticed in the matches I watched on webcast:
The teams that won the automode tended to win the tube scoring as well. The other alliance had to win the minibot race to have a chance.
I think that during qualification matches ubertubes won’t decide a match however it will be a correlation (not causation) that the team that hangs the most ubertubes will win the match most of the time. I think that in elims though, especially in St. Louis, alliances are going to need every point they can get.