With half of the IRI quals matches completed, here are some of the seeding projections my event simulator is making. These are predictions as of match 51. Note that these percentages represent the proportion of 1000 simulations run in which the given team achieved some seed. Thus a 0.0% does not mean a team is mathematically eliminated from something, just that they never achieved this in any of the simulations run.
Team 1 seed Top 8 Top 12 Top 15 Top 24
2767 73.9% 98.5% 99.7% 99.8% 100.0%
2122 11.5% 89.6% 96.8% 98.3% 99.9%
107 2.4% 64.2% 85.7% 92.2% 99.4%
33 2.0% 70.3% 88.9% 94.5% 99.0%
2337 1.1% 51.6% 77.2% 88.3% 98.9%
1619 1.1% 58.3% 82.4% 91.4% 98.8%
195 0.9% 56.6% 77.6% 87.6% 98.6%
2169 1.5% 46.8% 74.1% 84.8% 98.4%
125 3.2% 66.7% 83.0% 89.5% 98.2%
118 1.2% 38.0% 65.0% 78.7% 95.9%
2056 0.2% 38.3% 60.0% 74.8% 95.1%
4028 0.3% 25.4% 48.0% 62.3% 87.9%
225 0.2% 25.0% 45.4% 60.2% 87.4%
1114 0.5% 17.9% 42.3% 60.0% 86.9%
384 0.0% 12.5% 33.5% 51.6% 86.7%
2614 0.0% 8.5% 22.4% 35.9% 74.6%
4272 0.0% 3.5% 11.7% 23.6% 62.6%
2481 0.0% 5.4% 15.4% 27.0% 62.4%
292 0.0% 5.3% 14.3% 25.0% 59.2%
2832 0.0% 5.4% 13.4% 21.9% 58.8%
2168 0.0% 1.4% 7.5% 17.3% 55.4%
4967 0.0% 2.4% 10.1% 18.9% 53.2%
2451 0.0% 0.2% 5.4% 14.5% 48.4%
2590 0.0% 1.2% 4.5% 11.0% 42.9%
4188 0.0% 0.5% 3.8% 8.8% 41.8%
1018 0.0% 0.4% 3.3% 9.5% 36.1%
1806 0.0% 1.0% 4.4% 9.6% 34.7%
2194 0.0% 0.9% 4.4% 9.4% 31.7%
1676 0.0% 0.8% 3.4% 7.8% 30.5%
4039 0.0% 0.4% 2.4% 7.6% 30.2%
365 0.0% 0.7% 1.7% 5.9% 29.7%
4143 0.0% 0.2% 2.0% 6.4% 27.5%
51 0.0% 0.5% 2.4% 5.6% 26.1%
1024 0.0% 0.4% 1.9% 4.2% 22.2%
5406 0.0% 0.5% 1.7% 4.3% 21.2%
2137 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 3.5% 19.8%
4206 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.9% 19.5%
3478 0.0% 0.3% 1.4% 3.5% 18.3%
1732 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 7.8%
3847 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 7.8%
829 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 7.2%
1987 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5%
1080 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 5.2%
910 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 4.7%
469 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3%
217 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.2%
1506 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
234 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5%
340 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5%
4265 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9%
67 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.6%
1746 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
1675 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1%
1640 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1%
1720 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
48 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
3452 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
4587 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
3824 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
1885 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
2468 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
5842 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
191 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
503 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1477 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1511 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1710 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2791 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
I’ll probably post an update after all matches are completed tonight.
Here are the projections as of match 64. I would have published them earlier, but I hadn’t realized that matches were done for the day.
Team 1 seed Top 8 Top 12 Top 15 Top 24
2767 55.0% 96.3% 99.4% 99.9% 100.0%
125 13.6% 91.1% 97.2% 99.6% 100.0%
195 0.8% 60.1% 81.0% 90.1% 100.0%
2122 19.4% 90.9% 97.6% 99.0% 100.0%
107 3.7% 67.4% 86.8% 93.4% 99.8%
33 3.1% 69.0% 85.6% 92.5% 99.6%
384 0.3% 43.9% 72.1% 86.0% 99.4%
2169 1.0% 35.4% 63.6% 79.1% 99.2%
4028 1.5% 50.3% 73.8% 85.3% 98.9%
2337 0.7% 42.3% 67.2% 80.4% 98.6%
1114 0.4% 28.6% 57.4% 74.1% 97.3%
118 0.4% 29.1% 57.4% 73.2% 96.8%
1619 0.0% 22.8% 49.8% 69.5% 96.0%
2056 0.0% 17.8% 44.0% 65.0% 95.1%
4272 0.0% 11.5% 30.8% 46.7% 90.8%
225 0.1% 10.1% 27.9% 44.5% 89.2%
2481 0.0% 12.2% 30.9% 48.5% 88.3%
2614 0.0% 5.7% 20.1% 39.0% 86.8%
2832 0.0% 7.2% 18.6% 34.6% 85.5%
2590 0.0% 3.2% 11.2% 25.6% 80.8%
3478 0.0% 1.8% 7.8% 17.7% 68.2%
2168 0.0% 0.9% 6.2% 15.3% 63.6%
4967 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 4.7% 54.3%
1806 0.0% 0.6% 3.5% 10.0% 50.0%
292 0.0% 0.7% 3.3% 7.3% 36.6%
4188 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% 4.0% 29.7%
1676 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 2.5% 28.8%
2137 0.0% 0.6% 1.7% 4.4% 24.8%
365 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% 24.0%
4206 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 2.9% 22.2%
5406 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 1.9% 22.1%
2194 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 15.7%
2451 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 12.0%
829 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 11.2%
3847 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0%
51 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 4.5%
1987 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4%
910 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1%
1024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1%
1018 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
217 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.8%
340 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%
469 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7%
4587 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3%
3824 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%
4265 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
1675 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
2791 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
48 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
234 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
1720 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
4039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
1080 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
3452 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
67 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
191 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
503 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1477 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1506 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1511 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1640 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1710 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1732 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1746 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1885 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2468 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4143 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5842 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
One match to go for most teams. Here are the projections as of match 90.
Team 1 seed Top 8 Top 12 Top 15 Top 24
2767 91.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
107 2.4% 81.0% 98.6% 99.8% 100.0%
2337 2.2% 88.0% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0%
195 1.6% 82.2% 99.4% 100.0% 100.0%
1619 0.8% 71.8% 98.4% 100.0% 100.0%
1114 0.8% 85.6% 98.2% 100.0% 100.0%
2122 0.4% 85.4% 99.2% 100.0% 100.0%
33 0.0% 79.2% 96.8% 100.0% 100.0%
125 0.0% 60.4% 90.4% 99.8% 100.0%
118 0.0% 9.6% 62.4% 96.6% 100.0%
4272 0.0% 20.0% 56.0% 93.0% 100.0%
2056 0.0% 18.8% 50.2% 83.8% 100.0%
4028 0.0% 11.6% 37.0% 80.0% 100.0%
225 0.0% 4.8% 45.4% 74.0% 100.0%
384 0.0% 1.2% 39.4% 73.2% 100.0%
2481 0.0% 0.4% 24.6% 68.0% 100.0%
2590 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 19.6% 99.4%
2832 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 8.8% 95.2%
2451 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 76.6%
4188 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 88.0%
217 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 56.8%
2169 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 59.6%
4206 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 58.8%
1987 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 56.6%
1024 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 54.4%
2614 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46.2%
1806 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 42.2%
5406 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.2%
4967 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8%
3478 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6%
2168 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4%
365 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2%
1676 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%
2194 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8%
234 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%
2137 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6%
48 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
51 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
67 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
191 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
292 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
340 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
469 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
503 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
829 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
910 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1018 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1080 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1477 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1506 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1511 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1640 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1675 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1710 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1720 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1732 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1746 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1885 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2468 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2791 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3452 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3824 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3847 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4039 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4143 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4265 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4587 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5842 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
I always love your seeding projection posts. Very insightful.
I have uploaded an excel workbook here named “IRI seeding projections investigator” which can be used to investigate all of the projections my simulator made for IRI. The discrepancies between these projections and the above projections are due to sampling differences.
One thing I found with this project is that my event simulator does not properly handle DQed teams. Unfortunately, the changes required to fix this are non-trivial, so I have left the simulator unchanged. This means that the projections for teams 1806, 2451, and 4039 will be very poor for the matches after which they are DQed, and these discrepancies will decrease the performance of other teams’ projections as well.
Take that statistics! We had a memorable time at IRI and were especially blessed to be an alliance captain! Thanks 910, 5406 and 1746 for being a great 8th alliance with us!