IRI Statistics/Predictions Live Blog

Competition Off-Season Events
#54

Whoops, got 1023 and 1073 mixed up. 1023 v 2056 will happen in q91, where basically the same analysis holds true.

#55

1073 is what makes this not a sure thing for me

1 Like
#56

They did unexpectedly well against 1114, which completely changed everything

1 Like
#57

Every team has now played 5 matches, here are ranking projections:

projections as of q57
Team 5th Percentile Average Rank 95th Percentile 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
2056 1 3.2 9 30% 77% 95% 99% >99%
1114 1 4.4 11 21% 62% 89% 98% >99%
930 1 4.7 11 20% 58% 84% 97% >99%
319 1 5.9 13 10% 45% 75% 93% 97%
1023 1 6.8 13 7% 30% 68% 93% 97%
225 2 7.0 14 4% 29% 68% 90% 97%
2481 2 8.0 17 2% 28% 59% 85% 93%
2767 2 8.9 18 2% 20% 53% 80% 90%
2403 3 9.4 20 <1% 16% 51% 77% 88%
3604 3 9.5 19 2% 16% 49% 75% 87%
3538 3 9.8 20 2% 15% 45% 74% 87%
1684 6 14.9 27 <1% 1% 14% 40% 61%
330 7 15.5 27 <1% <1% 12% 34% 55%
910 8 17.9 31 <1% <1% 6% 23% 40%
111 8 18.7 33 <1% <1% 7% 21% 36%
2910 8 19.0 33 <1% <1% 7% 21% 37%
1807 10 21.1 35 <1% <1% 3% 12% 26%
4607 10 22.3 38 <1% <1% 3% 11% 22%
118 10 22.3 38 <1% <1% 2% 11% 23%
3357 12 22.5 36 <1% <1% 1% 8% 20%
195 11 23.2 38 <1% <1% 2% 8% 19%
48 11 23.4 38 <1% <1% 1% 8% 17%
3847 11 23.7 39 <1% <1% 1% 7% 18%
2168 11 24.1 39 <1% <1% 3% 9% 18%
5406 11 24.3 39 <1% <1% 2% 9% 17%
4265 12 25.6 41 <1% <1% 1% 5% 12%
6443 13 26.9 41 <1% <1% <1% 5% 12%
868 14 27.7 43 <1% <1% <1% 2% 8%
1720 17 28.1 41 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
1747 15 29.0 44 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
364 15 29.0 44 <1% <1% <1% 2% 6%
548 16 30.4 47 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
340 20 33.6 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
7498 19 34.3 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
1241 22 34.9 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5460 23 35.2 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4362 25 38.0 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5205 21 38.1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2075 24 38.9 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1923 27 40.8 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3940 27 41.8 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4028 27 42.2 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
33 29 42.8 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3478 27 42.9 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4776 28 43.8 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5511 30 44.2 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1690 31 44.7 57 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2468 34 45.9 57 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7457 31 46.1 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
107 34 47.2 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5190 34 48.3 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1676 36 49.4 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5010 37 49.9 60 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3641 38 50.9 60 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2614 38 51.1 60 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
88 42 54.0 62 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
461 47 57.2 65 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1718 48 58.1 66 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2337 51 59.3 66 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
234 51 60.5 67 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
51 53 60.8 67 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1073 55 62.0 67 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1730 55 62.3 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1410 55 62.5 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1024 56 63.2 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3707 56 63.4 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5801 57 64.1 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
217 60 65.8 68 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
#58

There appears to be a sharp cutoff between 3538 and 1684. The teams above are all very serious top 8 contenders and possible top 4 contenders. No one below 3538 will probably make the top 4.

#59

Here are the Elo changes for every team at the competition from the start of the event up until the present:

Elo changes
team Number nickname elo change
111 WildStang 63
6443 AEMBOT 59
2481 Roboteers 56
48 Team E.L.I.T.E. 53
930 Mukwonago BEARs 52
5406 Celt-X 50
1684 The Chimeras 49
1023 Bedford Express 38
3847 Spectrum -△◅ 37
2614 Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS) 35
3478 PrepaTec - LamBot 35
2767 Stryke Force 33
319 Big Bad Bob 32
1114 Simbotics 32
1807 Redbird Robotics 30
4607 C.I.S. 29
3604 Goon Squad 25
548 Robostangs 25
2403 Plasma Robotics 24
225 TechFire 24
2056 OP Robotics 23
4776 S.C.O.T.S. Bots 22
4028 The Beak Squad 18
1073 The Force Team 15
4265 Secret City Wildbots 15
195 CyberKnights 12
3357 COMETS 10
910 The Foley Freeze 9
5511 Cortechs Robotics 8
118 Robonauts 8
1720 PhyXTGears 4
1923 The MidKnight Inventors 3
7498 Wingus & Dingus 3
1747 Harrison Boiler Robotics 2
5205 FullMetal-Jackets 2
2910 Jack in the Bot 0
1241 THEORY6 -2
2075 Enigma Robotics -2
1690 Orbit -6
2168 Aluminum Falcons -8
330 The Beach Bots -8
5190 Green Hope Falcons -9
107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S. -10
1024 Kil-A-Bytes -12
3538 RoboJackets -15
1718 The Fighting Pi -16
364 Team Fusion -17
1730 Team Driven -20
340 G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics) -23
2337 EngiNERDs -25
5010 Tiger Dynasty -26
3940 CyberTooth -26
1676 The Pascack PI-oneers -28
461 Westside Boiler Invasion -32
4362 Gems -34
51 The Wings of Fire -35
2468 Team Appreciate -36
7457 suPURDUEper Robotics -36
868 TechHOUNDS -36
3707 Brighton TechnoDogs -36
1410 The Kraken -46
217 ThunderChickens -46
5801 CTC Inspire -47
88 TJ(Squared) -49
33 Killer Bees -51
5460 Strike Zone -55
234 Cyber Blue -66
3641 The Flying Toasters -79

111, 6443, 2481, 48, and 930 are here to play

#60

Q61 had some big implications for the top seed race:
image
Nominally 930 was the winner, but missing an RP means their overall chances didn’t change much. The real winner was 2056 who saw their chances go up 8% because no one got 4RPs. The other teams down the list saw their chances improve as well at 1114’s expense.

1 Like
#61

From Q66, 319 goes from 16% to <1% first seed. 1023 goes from 7% to 22%. My model actually believes in 1023. They still have 2 very rough matches ahead of them in q101 and especially q91, but they might not even need to win both to seed first. Losing 1 would put them at 33RPs if they get all the rest, which would be tied with 2056 if 2056 gets all remaining RPs.

1 Like
#62
4 Likes
#63

Alright, here are rankings at the end of Friday:

Projections after q70
Team 5th Percentile Average Rank 95th Percentile 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
2056 1 2.2 5 44% 91% >99% >99% >99%
1023 1 3.0 6 22% 84% >99% >99% >99%
2481 1 4.1 9 14% 65% 92% 99% >99%
930 1 4.2 10 16% 65% 91% 98% >99%
225 2 5.3 10 3% 38% 90% 98% >99%
1114 2 6.9 14 1% 30% 73% 91% 97%
319 4 10.5 21 <1% 8% 42% 70% 84%
2910 5 10.8 20 <1% 4% 38% 70% 83%
3538 4 11.3 21 <1% 7% 32% 64% 80%
2767 6 12.6 22 <1% 2% 25% 54% 75%
1684 6 13.4 24 <1% <1% 18% 51% 67%
2403 6 13.6 24 <1% 2% 19% 47% 67%
330 7 14.1 22 <1% <1% 14% 37% 63%
4607 6 14.5 26 <1% 1% 15% 44% 61%
3604 6 14.6 26 <1% <1% 18% 42% 61%
195 7 14.8 24 <1% 1% 14% 39% 55%
48 7 15.3 25 <1% <1% 11% 33% 56%
111 9 17.7 27 <1% <1% 4% 17% 35%
4265 12 19.4 27 <1% <1% 1% 7% 21%
868 10 21.0 32 <1% <1% <1% 12% 22%
2168 10 21.7 34 <1% <1% 2% 10% 20%
910 11 22.1 34 <1% <1% <1% 8% 14%
1807 13 23.2 35 <1% <1% 1% 5% 12%
340 15 24.7 35 <1% <1% <1% <1% 6%
3357 16 26.9 40 <1% <1% <1% 1% 5%
6443 14 27.4 41 <1% <1% <1% 4% 7%
3847 18 28.2 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
118 18 29.7 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
5460 22 31.5 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2075 19 31.6 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
5406 20 32.3 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
1747 21 32.9 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
364 21 33.2 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1720 22 33.2 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4028 23 34.3 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5511 23 36.5 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1690 25 36.8 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7498 26 38.6 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2468 28 39.0 50 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
107 27 39.3 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1241 30 41.5 52 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
33 28 42.0 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3641 30 42.1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7457 29 42.3 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3478 30 43.6 56 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
4362 33 44.8 55 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
5205 33 45.2 56 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
548 33 45.2 55 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
3940 35 46.6 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
88 36 47.7 56 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
1923 36 47.7 58 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
4776 37 49.7 59 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
5010 42 51.3 58 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
1676 44 53.7 61 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
51 45 55.2 63 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
5190 48 56.4 64 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
1718 49 58.1 65 - - - <1% <1%
2614 52 58.9 65 - - - <1% <1%
1410 51 58.9 65 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
461 51 59.3 66 - - - <1% <1%
1073 51 59.6 66 - - - <1% <1%
5801 53 60.1 66 - - - <1% <1%
2337 55 61.9 67 - - - <1% <1%
1730 56 62.7 68 - - - <1% <1%
1024 56 62.7 68 - - - - <1%
234 59 64.6 68 - - - - <1%
3707 60 65.5 68 - - - - -
217 62 66.4 68 - - - - -

2056 and 1023 will probably be in the top 4, which will likely be rounded out with 2481 and/or 930. Also reasonable chance one or both of 225 or 1114 gets in the top 4 as well. For the one seed we have 2056 as a comfortable favorite (not yet >50% though) with 1023, 2481, and 930 all in solid contention.

4 Likes
#64

Seems it’s going to be something like 31-32 RP.

#65

@Caleb_Sykes this live blog is really awesome by the way. Thanks for doing it! It’s made it really easy to track how we’re doing (and so much more painful when we miss RP’s for stupid reasons).

14 Likes
#66

Yes this has been very informative. @Caleb_Sykes thanks for doing this!

2 Likes
#67

Yeah, so this is IRI. Two current World Champions, dead last.

2 Likes
#68

Here’s something that maybe is interesting, I’ve taken every team and some of their metrics and compared their pre-IRI seed values against their values at IRI so far.
IRI metrics comparison.xlsx (154.9 KB)

Things I found interesting:

  • The average change across all metrics is negative. Not particularly surprising as teams are performing at below peak in the offseason, but more importantly, all metrics use the team’s peak in-season rating, not most recent. So of course the average will be lower than everyone’s max.
  • For the OPR match predictions this is fine, as everyone being overrated by some amount shouldn’t really change things much, but for the RP predictions this can cause some trouble. Almost every match I saw today in my simulator had the HAB RP success likelihood at 100%, which is partially due to this effect. Working on an alternative for that.
  • 2910’s Complete Rocket RP rate is .28 higher than expected. I think that this is largely due to the prevalence of teams that can complete the rocket. Other teams would also benefit from this change though, what I bet makes 2910 special is that they are so good at filling other roles in the match that their rocket-capable teammates don’t have to worry about those things and can better focus on completing the rocket.
  • 4028 has the highest change in endgame points. This is probably due to their unique 3rd level climb that often allows another team to climb along with them.
  • 4028 also has the highest change in auto points. I don’t know exactly the cause for this, but it is strangely coincidental along with the climbing. My suspicion is that they have added some auto modes for IRI so that they can always complement their partners’ routines, but that’s just speculation. Maybe someone from the team can chime in.
1 Like
#69

Hey this is Nick from team 4028. Our auto modes have significantly changed since worlds as we have removed them. We added a 6 NEO drive train in order to more effectively play defense. We switched to teleop for sandstorm, and we have become very consistent due to a well practiced and experienced drive team. In regards to the climb, our neos help to give our climb situation by giving us more pushing power to make the extra room on level 3 if all we need is an inch or two more. In all, the climb only takes up 17-18 inches of the platform.

2 Likes
#70

Almost everyone has just one match left.

Rankings as of q90
Team 5th Percentile Average Rank 95th Percentile 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
930 1 1.2 2 84% >99% >99% LOCK LOCK
2056 1 2.0 3 12% >99% >99% LOCK LOCK
1023 2 3.6 6 4% 83% >99% >99% >99%
2481 3 4.3 7 <1% 62% >99% >99% >99%
1114 3 5.4 9 <1% 31% 94% >99% LOCK
225 4 5.6 9 <1% 21% 91% >99% >99%
3538 5 9.0 12 <1% 2% 31% 99% >99%
330 7 9.1 13 - <1% 53% 93% >99%
2403 6 9.1 13 <1% <1% 41% 94% >99%
2168 6 9.2 14 <1% <1% 48% 90% 97%
2910 7 11.0 16 - <1% 22% 68% 91%
319 7 11.2 16 - <1% 21% 67% 94%
111 11 16.0 23 - <1% <1% 18% 53%
3604 10 16.7 24 - <1% <1% 27% 40%
364 13 17.3 23 - - <1% <1% 42%
4265 11 17.9 26 - <1% <1% 13% 39%
5406 13 18.4 27 - - <1% 1% 39%
868 12 18.5 28 - - <1% 14% 40%
4607 12 19.1 25 - <1% <1% 7% 26%
3357 12 20.0 27 - <1% <1% 7% 21%
2767 15 20.0 27 - <1% <1% 1% 11%
1747 15 21.2 29 - - <1% <1% 5%
1684 17 21.3 28 - - - <1% <1%
1807 18 23.5 31 - - <1% <1% <1%
5460 21 25.5 33 - - - - <1%
340 18 25.9 32 - - - <1% <1%
48 19 26.1 30 - - <1% <1% <1%
195 18 26.7 33 - - - <1% <1%
1720 23 28.7 36 - - - <1% <1%
2075 21 29.0 35 - - - <1% <1%
1241 25 30.6 39 - - - - <1%
6443 21 31.2 40 - - - <1% <1%
1690 28 35.3 42 - - - - <1%
5511 28 35.6 41 - - - - <1%
3847 31 36.3 45 - - - - <1%
118 32 36.9 43 - - - - <1%
4028 33 38.0 45 - - - - -
4362 30 38.8 46 - - - - -
3940 31 39.1 46 - - - - <1%
910 35 39.8 46 - - - - -
1923 32 40.1 46 - - - - <1%
548 34 41.6 51 - - - - -
4776 35 41.8 49 - - - - -
2468 32 41.9 49 - - - - -
33 37 43.4 52 - - - - -
7498 38 44.3 51 - - - - -
107 38 45.2 48 - - - - -
7457 42 48.8 52 - - - - -
5205 46 50.3 56 - - - - -
1676 45 50.8 56 - - - - -
5801 46 50.8 55 - - - - -
88 47 51.7 58 - - - - -
3641 47 51.9 55 - - - - -
2337 47 52.9 58 - - - - -
5010 48 54.0 58 - - - - -
5190 51 56.8 61 - - - - -
51 51 56.8 62 - - - - -
3478 52 57.2 62 - - - - -
2614 55 60.0 64 - - - - -
461 57 61.4 65 - - - - -
234 57 61.5 67 - - - - -
1073 57 61.5 66 - - - - -
1024 57 61.6 66 - - - - -
1730 59 64.0 68 - - - - -
1410 59 64.1 67 - - - - -
1718 60 64.7 68 - - - - -
217 62 66.0 68 - - - - -
3707 63 66.8 68 - - - - -
#72

These were surprisingly accurate

#73

Here’s a quick reference of team Elos so you can get a feel for alliance selection:

end of quals Elo ratings
team Number nickname winning Margin Elo
2056 OP Robotics 1974
2910 Jack in the Bot 1946
3538 RoboJackets 1911
2481 Roboteers 1886
1114 Simbotics 1869
5406 Celt-X 1858
364 Team Fusion 1852
225 TechFire 1847
1690 Orbit 1844
330 The Beach Bots 1837
1023 Bedford Express 1826
930 Mukwonago BEARs 1822
195 CyberKnights 1820
2767 Stryke Force 1814
2168 Aluminum Falcons 1813
6443 AEMBOT 1805
3707 Brighton TechnoDogs 1793
1807 Redbird Robotics 1778
5460 Strike Zone 1777
111 WildStang 1767
340 G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics) 1766
319 Big Bad Bob 1765
5190 Green Hope Falcons 1758
910 The Foley Freeze 1757
33 Killer Bees 1757
2075 Enigma Robotics 1749
3604 Goon Squad 1749
2403 Plasma Robotics 1747
1241 THEORY6 1742
2468 Team Appreciate 1738
4776 S.C.O.T.S. Bots 1734
1720 PhyXTGears 1730
3847 Spectrum -△◅ 1730
2337 EngiNERDs 1730
1676 The Pascack PI-oneers 1720
1923 The MidKnight Inventors 1718
118 Robonauts 1717
4028 The Beak Squad 1714
4362 Gems 1714
3641 The Flying Toasters 1714
3357 COMETS 1713
107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S. 1704
1747 Harrison Boiler Robotics 1697
1684 The Chimeras 1695
4607 C.I.S. 1695
1730 Team Driven 1688
1718 The Fighting Pi 1685
5801 CTC Inspire 1682
48 Team E.L.I.T.E. 1675
88 TJ(Squared) 1674
5511 Cortechs Robotics 1673
51 The Wings of Fire 1670
234 Cyber Blue 1670
3478 PrepaTec - LamBot 1665
7498 Wingus & Dingus 1659
217 ThunderChickens 1657
3940 CyberTooth 1654
7457 suPURDUEper Robotics 1652
548 Robostangs 1651
5205 FullMetal-Jackets 1638
5010 Tiger Dynasty 1633
868 TechHOUNDS 1633
1024 Kil-A-Bytes 1630
1073 The Force Team 1628
2614 Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS) 1617
461 Westside Boiler Invasion 1608
4265 Secret City Wildbots 1607
1410 The Kraken 1596
#74

How on earth did 364 get passed over?