Q61 had some big implications for the top seed race:
Nominally 930 was the winner, but missing an RP means their overall chances didn’t change much. The real winner was 2056 who saw their chances go up 8% because no one got 4RPs. The other teams down the list saw their chances improve as well at 1114’s expense.
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From Q66, 319 goes from 16% to <1% first seed. 1023 goes from 7% to 22%. My model actually believes in 1023. They still have 2 very rough matches ahead of them in q101 and especially q91, but they might not even need to win both to seed first. Losing 1 would put them at 33RPs if they get all the rest, which would be tied with 2056 if 2056 gets all remaining RPs.
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4 Likes
Alright, here are rankings at the end of Friday:
Projections after q70
| Team | 5th Percentile | Average Rank | 95th Percentile | 1 | Top 4 | Top 8 | Top 12 | Top 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2056 | 1 | 2.2 | 5 | 44% | 91% | >99% | >99% | >99% |
| 1023 | 1 | 3.0 | 6 | 22% | 84% | >99% | >99% | >99% |
| 2481 | 1 | 4.1 | 9 | 14% | 65% | 92% | 99% | >99% |
| 930 | 1 | 4.2 | 10 | 16% | 65% | 91% | 98% | >99% |
| 225 | 2 | 5.3 | 10 | 3% | 38% | 90% | 98% | >99% |
| 1114 | 2 | 6.9 | 14 | 1% | 30% | 73% | 91% | 97% |
| 319 | 4 | 10.5 | 21 | <1% | 8% | 42% | 70% | 84% |
| 2910 | 5 | 10.8 | 20 | <1% | 4% | 38% | 70% | 83% |
| 3538 | 4 | 11.3 | 21 | <1% | 7% | 32% | 64% | 80% |
| 2767 | 6 | 12.6 | 22 | <1% | 2% | 25% | 54% | 75% |
| 1684 | 6 | 13.4 | 24 | <1% | <1% | 18% | 51% | 67% |
| 2403 | 6 | 13.6 | 24 | <1% | 2% | 19% | 47% | 67% |
| 330 | 7 | 14.1 | 22 | <1% | <1% | 14% | 37% | 63% |
| 4607 | 6 | 14.5 | 26 | <1% | 1% | 15% | 44% | 61% |
| 3604 | 6 | 14.6 | 26 | <1% | <1% | 18% | 42% | 61% |
| 195 | 7 | 14.8 | 24 | <1% | 1% | 14% | 39% | 55% |
| 48 | 7 | 15.3 | 25 | <1% | <1% | 11% | 33% | 56% |
| 111 | 9 | 17.7 | 27 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 17% | 35% |
| 4265 | 12 | 19.4 | 27 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 21% |
| 868 | 10 | 21.0 | 32 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 12% | 22% |
| 2168 | 10 | 21.7 | 34 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 10% | 20% |
| 910 | 11 | 22.1 | 34 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 8% | 14% |
| 1807 | 13 | 23.2 | 35 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 12% |
| 340 | 15 | 24.7 | 35 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6% |
| 3357 | 16 | 26.9 | 40 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% |
| 6443 | 14 | 27.4 | 41 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 7% |
| 3847 | 18 | 28.2 | 40 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 118 | 18 | 29.7 | 43 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| 5460 | 22 | 31.5 | 44 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2075 | 19 | 31.6 | 45 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 5406 | 20 | 32.3 | 45 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% |
| 1747 | 21 | 32.9 | 47 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 364 | 21 | 33.2 | 46 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1720 | 22 | 33.2 | 45 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4028 | 23 | 34.3 | 48 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5511 | 23 | 36.5 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1690 | 25 | 36.8 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7498 | 26 | 38.6 | 51 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 2468 | 28 | 39.0 | 50 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 107 | 27 | 39.3 | 50 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1241 | 30 | 41.5 | 52 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 33 | 28 | 42.0 | 55 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 3641 | 30 | 42.1 | 52 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7457 | 29 | 42.3 | 54 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 3478 | 30 | 43.6 | 56 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4362 | 33 | 44.8 | 55 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5205 | 33 | 45.2 | 56 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 548 | 33 | 45.2 | 55 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 3940 | 35 | 46.6 | 56 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 88 | 36 | 47.7 | 56 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1923 | 36 | 47.7 | 58 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4776 | 37 | 49.7 | 59 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5010 | 42 | 51.3 | 58 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1676 | 44 | 53.7 | 61 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 51 | 45 | 55.2 | 63 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5190 | 48 | 56.4 | 64 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 1718 | 49 | 58.1 | 65 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 2614 | 52 | 58.9 | 65 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 1410 | 51 | 58.9 | 65 | - | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 461 | 51 | 59.3 | 66 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 1073 | 51 | 59.6 | 66 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 5801 | 53 | 60.1 | 66 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 2337 | 55 | 61.9 | 67 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 1730 | 56 | 62.7 | 68 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 1024 | 56 | 62.7 | 68 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 234 | 59 | 64.6 | 68 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 3707 | 60 | 65.5 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 217 | 62 | 66.4 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - |
2056 and 1023 will probably be in the top 4, which will likely be rounded out with 2481 and/or 930. Also reasonable chance one or both of 225 or 1114 gets in the top 4 as well. For the one seed we have 2056 as a comfortable favorite (not yet >50% though) with 1023, 2481, and 930 all in solid contention.
4 Likes
Seems it’s going to be something like 31-32 RP.
@Caleb_Sykes this live blog is really awesome by the way. Thanks for doing it! It’s made it really easy to track how we’re doing (and so much more painful when we miss RP’s for stupid reasons).
14 Likes
Yeah, so this is IRI. Two current World Champions, dead last.
2 Likes
Here’s something that maybe is interesting, I’ve taken every team and some of their metrics and compared their pre-IRI seed values against their values at IRI so far.
IRI metrics comparison.xlsx (154.9 KB)
Things I found interesting:
- The average change across all metrics is negative. Not particularly surprising as teams are performing at below peak in the offseason, but more importantly, all metrics use the team’s peak in-season rating, not most recent. So of course the average will be lower than everyone’s max.
- For the OPR match predictions this is fine, as everyone being overrated by some amount shouldn’t really change things much, but for the RP predictions this can cause some trouble. Almost every match I saw today in my simulator had the HAB RP success likelihood at 100%, which is partially due to this effect. Working on an alternative for that.
- 2910’s Complete Rocket RP rate is .28 higher than expected. I think that this is largely due to the prevalence of teams that can complete the rocket. Other teams would also benefit from this change though, what I bet makes 2910 special is that they are so good at filling other roles in the match that their rocket-capable teammates don’t have to worry about those things and can better focus on completing the rocket.
- 4028 has the highest change in endgame points. This is probably due to their unique 3rd level climb that often allows another team to climb along with them.
- 4028 also has the highest change in auto points. I don’t know exactly the cause for this, but it is strangely coincidental along with the climbing. My suspicion is that they have added some auto modes for IRI so that they can always complement their partners’ routines, but that’s just speculation. Maybe someone from the team can chime in.
1 Like
Hey this is Nick from team 4028. Our auto modes have significantly changed since worlds as we have removed them. We added a 6 NEO drive train in order to more effectively play defense. We switched to teleop for sandstorm, and we have become very consistent due to a well practiced and experienced drive team. In regards to the climb, our neos help to give our climb situation by giving us more pushing power to make the extra room on level 3 if all we need is an inch or two more. In all, the climb only takes up 17-18 inches of the platform.
2 Likes
Almost everyone has just one match left.
Rankings as of q90
| Team | 5th Percentile | Average Rank | 95th Percentile | 1 | Top 4 | Top 8 | Top 12 | Top 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 930 | 1 | 1.2 | 2 | 84% | >99% | >99% | LOCK | LOCK |
| 2056 | 1 | 2.0 | 3 | 12% | >99% | >99% | LOCK | LOCK |
| 1023 | 2 | 3.6 | 6 | 4% | 83% | >99% | >99% | >99% |
| 2481 | 3 | 4.3 | 7 | <1% | 62% | >99% | >99% | >99% |
| 1114 | 3 | 5.4 | 9 | <1% | 31% | 94% | >99% | LOCK |
| 225 | 4 | 5.6 | 9 | <1% | 21% | 91% | >99% | >99% |
| 3538 | 5 | 9.0 | 12 | <1% | 2% | 31% | 99% | >99% |
| 330 | 7 | 9.1 | 13 | - | <1% | 53% | 93% | >99% |
| 2403 | 6 | 9.1 | 13 | <1% | <1% | 41% | 94% | >99% |
| 2168 | 6 | 9.2 | 14 | <1% | <1% | 48% | 90% | 97% |
| 2910 | 7 | 11.0 | 16 | - | <1% | 22% | 68% | 91% |
| 319 | 7 | 11.2 | 16 | - | <1% | 21% | 67% | 94% |
| 111 | 11 | 16.0 | 23 | - | <1% | <1% | 18% | 53% |
| 3604 | 10 | 16.7 | 24 | - | <1% | <1% | 27% | 40% |
| 364 | 13 | 17.3 | 23 | - | - | <1% | <1% | 42% |
| 4265 | 11 | 17.9 | 26 | - | <1% | <1% | 13% | 39% |
| 5406 | 13 | 18.4 | 27 | - | - | <1% | 1% | 39% |
| 868 | 12 | 18.5 | 28 | - | - | <1% | 14% | 40% |
| 4607 | 12 | 19.1 | 25 | - | <1% | <1% | 7% | 26% |
| 3357 | 12 | 20.0 | 27 | - | <1% | <1% | 7% | 21% |
| 2767 | 15 | 20.0 | 27 | - | <1% | <1% | 1% | 11% |
| 1747 | 15 | 21.2 | 29 | - | - | <1% | <1% | 5% |
| 1684 | 17 | 21.3 | 28 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 1807 | 18 | 23.5 | 31 | - | - | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5460 | 21 | 25.5 | 33 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 340 | 18 | 25.9 | 32 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 48 | 19 | 26.1 | 30 | - | - | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 195 | 18 | 26.7 | 33 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 1720 | 23 | 28.7 | 36 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 2075 | 21 | 29.0 | 35 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 1241 | 25 | 30.6 | 39 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 6443 | 21 | 31.2 | 40 | - | - | - | <1% | <1% |
| 1690 | 28 | 35.3 | 42 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 5511 | 28 | 35.6 | 41 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 3847 | 31 | 36.3 | 45 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 118 | 32 | 36.9 | 43 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 4028 | 33 | 38.0 | 45 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4362 | 30 | 38.8 | 46 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3940 | 31 | 39.1 | 46 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 910 | 35 | 39.8 | 46 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1923 | 32 | 40.1 | 46 | - | - | - | - | <1% |
| 548 | 34 | 41.6 | 51 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4776 | 35 | 41.8 | 49 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2468 | 32 | 41.9 | 49 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 33 | 37 | 43.4 | 52 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7498 | 38 | 44.3 | 51 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 107 | 38 | 45.2 | 48 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7457 | 42 | 48.8 | 52 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5205 | 46 | 50.3 | 56 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1676 | 45 | 50.8 | 56 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5801 | 46 | 50.8 | 55 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 88 | 47 | 51.7 | 58 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3641 | 47 | 51.9 | 55 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2337 | 47 | 52.9 | 58 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5010 | 48 | 54.0 | 58 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5190 | 51 | 56.8 | 61 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 51 | 56.8 | 62 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3478 | 52 | 57.2 | 62 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2614 | 55 | 60.0 | 64 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 461 | 57 | 61.4 | 65 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 234 | 57 | 61.5 | 67 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1073 | 57 | 61.5 | 66 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1024 | 57 | 61.6 | 66 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1730 | 59 | 64.0 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1410 | 59 | 64.1 | 67 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 1718 | 60 | 64.7 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 217 | 62 | 66.0 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3707 | 63 | 66.8 | 68 | - | - | - | - | - |
These were surprisingly accurate
Here’s a quick reference of team Elos so you can get a feel for alliance selection:
end of quals Elo ratings
| team Number | nickname | winning Margin Elo |
|---|---|---|
| 2056 | OP Robotics | 1974 |
| 2910 | Jack in the Bot | 1946 |
| 3538 | RoboJackets | 1911 |
| 2481 | Roboteers | 1886 |
| 1114 | Simbotics | 1869 |
| 5406 | Celt-X | 1858 |
| 364 | Team Fusion | 1852 |
| 225 | TechFire | 1847 |
| 1690 | Orbit | 1844 |
| 330 | The Beach Bots | 1837 |
| 1023 | Bedford Express | 1826 |
| 930 | Mukwonago BEARs | 1822 |
| 195 | CyberKnights | 1820 |
| 2767 | Stryke Force | 1814 |
| 2168 | Aluminum Falcons | 1813 |
| 6443 | AEMBOT | 1805 |
| 3707 | Brighton TechnoDogs | 1793 |
| 1807 | Redbird Robotics | 1778 |
| 5460 | Strike Zone | 1777 |
| 111 | WildStang | 1767 |
| 340 | G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics) | 1766 |
| 319 | Big Bad Bob | 1765 |
| 5190 | Green Hope Falcons | 1758 |
| 910 | The Foley Freeze | 1757 |
| 33 | Killer Bees | 1757 |
| 2075 | Enigma Robotics | 1749 |
| 3604 | Goon Squad | 1749 |
| 2403 | Plasma Robotics | 1747 |
| 1241 | THEORY6 | 1742 |
| 2468 | Team Appreciate | 1738 |
| 4776 | S.C.O.T.S. Bots | 1734 |
| 1720 | PhyXTGears | 1730 |
| 3847 | Spectrum -△◅ | 1730 |
| 2337 | EngiNERDs | 1730 |
| 1676 | The Pascack PI-oneers | 1720 |
| 1923 | The MidKnight Inventors | 1718 |
| 118 | Robonauts | 1717 |
| 4028 | The Beak Squad | 1714 |
| 4362 | Gems | 1714 |
| 3641 | The Flying Toasters | 1714 |
| 3357 | COMETS | 1713 |
| 107 | Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S. | 1704 |
| 1747 | Harrison Boiler Robotics | 1697 |
| 1684 | The Chimeras | 1695 |
| 4607 | C.I.S. | 1695 |
| 1730 | Team Driven | 1688 |
| 1718 | The Fighting Pi | 1685 |
| 5801 | CTC Inspire | 1682 |
| 48 | Team E.L.I.T.E. | 1675 |
| 88 | TJ(Squared) | 1674 |
| 5511 | Cortechs Robotics | 1673 |
| 51 | The Wings of Fire | 1670 |
| 234 | Cyber Blue | 1670 |
| 3478 | PrepaTec - LamBot | 1665 |
| 7498 | Wingus & Dingus | 1659 |
| 217 | ThunderChickens | 1657 |
| 3940 | CyberTooth | 1654 |
| 7457 | suPURDUEper Robotics | 1652 |
| 548 | Robostangs | 1651 |
| 5205 | FullMetal-Jackets | 1638 |
| 5010 | Tiger Dynasty | 1633 |
| 868 | TechHOUNDS | 1633 |
| 1024 | Kil-A-Bytes | 1630 |
| 1073 | The Force Team | 1628 |
| 2614 | Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS) | 1617 |
| 461 | Westside Boiler Invasion | 1608 |
| 4265 | Secret City Wildbots | 1607 |
| 1410 | The Kraken | 1596 |
How on earth did 364 get passed over?
Here’s 2056’s path to the 1 seed
Here are the top 4 teams and their probabilities of being in the top 4:
2 Likes
I think IRI is the toughest event to scout. Roughly the same amount of teams in a division, fewer qual matches and just about every team can make an argument to be picked – unlike the championship where you can probably ignore a good percentage of teams before the event begins. On top of all that, teams make robot changes (or bring brand new robots) so the value in watching previous matches is reduced. Finally, not every team is there to ‘win at all cost’ like the championship as some teams use IRI to train new drivers. So, even if every team brought the same resources to scout IRI as they do the championship, you’d probably see significantly less consensus among picks.
319’s scouting data has them 37th in game pieces scored per match. So they weren’t an exceptional offensive threat, plus they come from a region where very few people have heard of or worked with them before. My conclusion: IRI is brutal, if you want to get picked you need to stand out from the crowd.
I disagree. It is not the hardest because so many teams have played so many matches already. There is a pit scouting element of finding the new drivers, but for the most part in the stands you are verifying what you already know from pre scouting. And noting what is different throughout. That said, I agree, you won’t have much consensus. A lot of that is teams not all looking for the same thing, though.
5460 / Strike Zone seemed to have some problem as an alliance partner with 930 in the very last qual match. Bot wouldn’t turn properly and sounded like there was a real drivetrain issue. The vagaries of competition and the robotics deities decided to mix things up.
Mind you they threw the same vagaries at 2056 shortly before by denying them 4 RP in quals 91 so it seems they are ambivalent with their human playthings 
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