IRI Statistics/Predictions Live Blog

Competition Off-Season Events
#42

Here are ranking projections as of q45. Almost everyone has played 4 matches:

Projections as of q45
Team 5th Percentile Average Rank 95th Percentile 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
2056 1 3.0 9 41% 80% 94% 98% >99%
319 1 5.2 14 17% 56% 82% 92% 97%
1114 1 6.4 17 10% 47% 74% 88% 93%
330 1 7.1 18 8% 41% 69% 84% 91%
3538 2 8.8 21 5% 30% 58% 75% 84%
930 1 9.8 24 7% 30% 52% 71% 80%
2481 2 10.7 23 2% 18% 45% 66% 79%
1023 2 11.5 24 2% 16% 37% 61% 75%
910 3 12.2 26 <1% 10% 36% 58% 74%
195 3 13.7 29 1% 11% 32% 51% 64%
4607 3 13.7 28 2% 12% 29% 51% 64%
2403 4 14.6 31 <1% 8% 27% 47% 59%
2767 3 15.2 32 1% 8% 27% 45% 56%
3604 4 15.5 31 1% 8% 22% 39% 54%
1684 5 15.6 30 <1% 4% 17% 37% 55%
5406 3 16.1 32 2% 9% 24% 41% 52%
3357 5 16.4 33 <1% 4% 18% 36% 51%
111 5 18.2 35 <1% 4% 14% 30% 40%
225 6 19.7 38 <1% 1% 11% 25% 38%
2910 7 22.2 41 <1% 1% 7% 19% 28%
118 8 22.5 41 <1% <1% 6% 17% 27%
1241 10 25.0 43 <1% <1% 4% 12% 18%
548 11 26.0 44 <1% <1% 2% 8% 16%
48 11 26.4 45 <1% <1% 2% 7% 15%
4776 11 28.4 47 <1% <1% 3% 8% 13%
1807 13 28.7 48 <1% <1% <1% 5% 11%
1747 12 29.3 49 <1% <1% <1% 6% 10%
4362 15 29.9 47 <1% <1% <1% 3% 6%
3940 14 32.1 50 <1% <1% 1% 4% 6%
1923 15 32.2 48 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
868 17 33.0 51 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
340 15 33.2 51 <1% <1% <1% 3% 6%
1720 18 34.4 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
364 17 34.7 51 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
5511 16 35.4 53 <1% <1% <1% 3% 5%
4265 18 36.2 53 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
4028 19 36.6 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
5460 20 36.7 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
2168 16 36.7 56 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
3847 20 36.7 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
5205 22 39.7 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
3478 23 39.8 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
2468 25 40.7 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7457 24 41.9 57 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
2614 24 42.7 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
107 25 43.1 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5010 24 43.1 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
33 28 45.3 60 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1690 28 45.7 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7498 28 46.8 61 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1676 30 48.1 60 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6443 31 48.9 61 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3641 32 49.0 61 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2075 35 49.5 61 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
461 36 51.9 62 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
88 40 53.7 63 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
234 38 53.8 64 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5190 42 55.4 64 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1073 42 55.7 65 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2337 43 57.1 65 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
51 46 57.8 66 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1730 53 61.4 67 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5801 56 63.6 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3707 56 63.7 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1410 57 63.7 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1718 58 64.5 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
217 59 64.8 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1024 58 64.8 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

2056 is the first team to effectively lock a top 15 slot.

2 Likes
#43

About halfway through, here’s a new list of matches by average Elo and blue win probability

Match quality
match average Elo blue win probability
46 1740 51.6%
47 1686 62.1%
48 1716 19.8%
49 1679 39.2%
50 1707 62.5%
51 1766 51.1%
52 1737 31.0%
53 1736 47.4%
54 1734 71.7%
55 1771 77.2%
56 1767 21.9%
57 1753 84.1%
58 1696 35.2%
59 1703 10.5%
60 1759 42.7%
61 1768 28.5%
62 1722 71.3%
63 1752 24.5%
64 1723 76.9%
65 1718 41.8%
66 1733 56.7%
67 1788 48.7%
68 1746 82.5%
69 1755 86.2%
70 1720 72.2%
71 1753 24.8%
72 1769 12.7%
73 1694 75.7%
74 1690 35.2%
75 1754 42.6%
76 1760 25.5%
77 1701 46.8%
78 1739 32.7%
79 1726 30.5%
80 1744 48.9%
81 1739 50.3%
82 1773 54.3%
83 1696 57.0%
84 1748 36.6%
85 1762 70.2%
86 1742 73.8%
87 1668 50.2%
88 1771 26.2%
89 1737 46.8%
90 1760 54.6%
91 1757 89.1%
92 1721 36.9%
93 1737 25.2%
94 1755 26.8%
95 1697 42.5%
96 1708 43.1%
97 1736 49.3%
98 1702 70.2%
99 1685 47.2%
100 1756 65.5%
101 1779 71.6%
102 1781 23.0%
#44

Looks like we’ll get a pair of high powered matches right at the end of the competition in quals 101 and 102

#45

The average of all team’s Elos at a competition will remain the same throughout the competition since Elo is zero-sum. However, one thing we can look at is the stdev of Elos from prior to the competition until now. A tighter Elo spread means that teams are more closely matched in skill, while a broad spread means that the best teams dominate the weak teams.

Before the event, the Elo stdev was 80. As of q45, the Elo stdev is 84. This would seem to indicate that the gap between the best and worst teams is even wider than we might have thought it was prior to the event.

1 Like
#46

q48 is an interesting case for 319. On the one hand, they won, but on the flipside, they were unable to achieve the rocket RP. Unfortunately for them, in the race to the 1 seed, you need every RP available. Prior to q48 they were 15% likely to seed first, and after they were 6% likely to seed first.

#47

We’re down to about 7 teams that have a reasonable shot at the 1 seed:
1114
2056
330
930
225
3538
319

For a summary of how we got here, here are each team’s probabilities of seeding first throughout the competition:

image
image.png927×521 51.1 KB

1114 came off to a strong lead right away with their victory over 2056, but then their loss in q25 really knocked them down. 319 got a big boost off of that match, but wasn’t able to maintain their lead as 2056 rebounded by never missing another RP. Just in the last few matches, 330, 930, 3538, and 319 joined the fray as well.

4 Likes
#48

Surprising that 1023 isn’t on the graph. They’re in first and undefeated so far. Looking ahead at their schedule, they’ve got a tough few matches ahead though.

1 Like
#49

From looking at the schedule I would say that matches 61, 82 and 85 are probably the most important ones left

#50

Specifically for determining the top spot

#51

Updated estimates for RPs needed for certain ranks:
1 seed: 32
top 4: 30
top 8: 28
top 15: 26

Maybe still a touch high, but should be much closer than my last guesses

1 Like
#52

2056 is now at about even odds to seed 1st against the rest of the field. They’re also the first team to effectively lock a top 12 slot.

#53

Upcoming match 57 has blue favored at 10 to 1 over red. This match is part of why 2056 is so strongly favored for the 1 seed and 1023 is not really considered a viable candidate. An upset could flip those assumptions on their head though.

#54

Whoops, got 1023 and 1073 mixed up. 1023 v 2056 will happen in q91, where basically the same analysis holds true.

#55

1073 is what makes this not a sure thing for me

1 Like
#56

They did unexpectedly well against 1114, which completely changed everything

1 Like
#57

Every team has now played 5 matches, here are ranking projections:

projections as of q57
Team 5th Percentile Average Rank 95th Percentile 1 Top 4 Top 8 Top 12 Top 15
2056 1 3.2 9 30% 77% 95% 99% >99%
1114 1 4.4 11 21% 62% 89% 98% >99%
930 1 4.7 11 20% 58% 84% 97% >99%
319 1 5.9 13 10% 45% 75% 93% 97%
1023 1 6.8 13 7% 30% 68% 93% 97%
225 2 7.0 14 4% 29% 68% 90% 97%
2481 2 8.0 17 2% 28% 59% 85% 93%
2767 2 8.9 18 2% 20% 53% 80% 90%
2403 3 9.4 20 <1% 16% 51% 77% 88%
3604 3 9.5 19 2% 16% 49% 75% 87%
3538 3 9.8 20 2% 15% 45% 74% 87%
1684 6 14.9 27 <1% 1% 14% 40% 61%
330 7 15.5 27 <1% <1% 12% 34% 55%
910 8 17.9 31 <1% <1% 6% 23% 40%
111 8 18.7 33 <1% <1% 7% 21% 36%
2910 8 19.0 33 <1% <1% 7% 21% 37%
1807 10 21.1 35 <1% <1% 3% 12% 26%
4607 10 22.3 38 <1% <1% 3% 11% 22%
118 10 22.3 38 <1% <1% 2% 11% 23%
3357 12 22.5 36 <1% <1% 1% 8% 20%
195 11 23.2 38 <1% <1% 2% 8% 19%
48 11 23.4 38 <1% <1% 1% 8% 17%
3847 11 23.7 39 <1% <1% 1% 7% 18%
2168 11 24.1 39 <1% <1% 3% 9% 18%
5406 11 24.3 39 <1% <1% 2% 9% 17%
4265 12 25.6 41 <1% <1% 1% 5% 12%
6443 13 26.9 41 <1% <1% <1% 5% 12%
868 14 27.7 43 <1% <1% <1% 2% 8%
1720 17 28.1 41 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3%
1747 15 29.0 44 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
364 15 29.0 44 <1% <1% <1% 2% 6%
548 16 30.4 47 <1% <1% <1% 2% 5%
340 20 33.6 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
7498 19 34.3 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
1241 22 34.9 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5460 23 35.2 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4362 25 38.0 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5205 21 38.1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2075 24 38.9 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1923 27 40.8 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3940 27 41.8 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4028 27 42.2 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
33 29 42.8 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3478 27 42.9 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4776 28 43.8 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5511 30 44.2 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1690 31 44.7 57 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2468 34 45.9 57 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
7457 31 46.1 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
107 34 47.2 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5190 34 48.3 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1676 36 49.4 59 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5010 37 49.9 60 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3641 38 50.9 60 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2614 38 51.1 60 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
88 42 54.0 62 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
461 47 57.2 65 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1718 48 58.1 66 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2337 51 59.3 66 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
234 51 60.5 67 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
51 53 60.8 67 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1073 55 62.0 67 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1730 55 62.3 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1410 55 62.5 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
1024 56 63.2 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3707 56 63.4 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5801 57 64.1 68 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
217 60 65.8 68 - <1% <1% <1% <1%
#58

There appears to be a sharp cutoff between 3538 and 1684. The teams above are all very serious top 8 contenders and possible top 4 contenders. No one below 3538 will probably make the top 4.

#59

Here are the Elo changes for every team at the competition from the start of the event up until the present:

Elo changes
team Number nickname elo change
111 WildStang 63
6443 AEMBOT 59
2481 Roboteers 56
48 Team E.L.I.T.E. 53
930 Mukwonago BEARs 52
5406 Celt-X 50
1684 The Chimeras 49
1023 Bedford Express 38
3847 Spectrum -△◅ 37
2614 Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS) 35
3478 PrepaTec - LamBot 35
2767 Stryke Force 33
319 Big Bad Bob 32
1114 Simbotics 32
1807 Redbird Robotics 30
4607 C.I.S. 29
3604 Goon Squad 25
548 Robostangs 25
2403 Plasma Robotics 24
225 TechFire 24
2056 OP Robotics 23
4776 S.C.O.T.S. Bots 22
4028 The Beak Squad 18
1073 The Force Team 15
4265 Secret City Wildbots 15
195 CyberKnights 12
3357 COMETS 10
910 The Foley Freeze 9
5511 Cortechs Robotics 8
118 Robonauts 8
1720 PhyXTGears 4
1923 The MidKnight Inventors 3
7498 Wingus & Dingus 3
1747 Harrison Boiler Robotics 2
5205 FullMetal-Jackets 2
2910 Jack in the Bot 0
1241 THEORY6 -2
2075 Enigma Robotics -2
1690 Orbit -6
2168 Aluminum Falcons -8
330 The Beach Bots -8
5190 Green Hope Falcons -9
107 Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S. -10
1024 Kil-A-Bytes -12
3538 RoboJackets -15
1718 The Fighting Pi -16
364 Team Fusion -17
1730 Team Driven -20
340 G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics) -23
2337 EngiNERDs -25
5010 Tiger Dynasty -26
3940 CyberTooth -26
1676 The Pascack PI-oneers -28
461 Westside Boiler Invasion -32
4362 Gems -34
51 The Wings of Fire -35
2468 Team Appreciate -36
7457 suPURDUEper Robotics -36
868 TechHOUNDS -36
3707 Brighton TechnoDogs -36
1410 The Kraken -46
217 ThunderChickens -46
5801 CTC Inspire -47
88 TJ(Squared) -49
33 Killer Bees -51
5460 Strike Zone -55
234 Cyber Blue -66
3641 The Flying Toasters -79

111, 6443, 2481, 48, and 930 are here to play

#60

Q61 had some big implications for the top seed race:
image
Nominally 930 was the winner, but missing an RP means their overall chances didn’t change much. The real winner was 2056 who saw their chances go up 8% because no one got 4RPs. The other teams down the list saw their chances improve as well at 1114’s expense.

1 Like
#61

From Q66, 319 goes from 16% to <1% first seed. 1023 goes from 7% to 22%. My model actually believes in 1023. They still have 2 very rough matches ahead of them in q101 and especially q91, but they might not even need to win both to seed first. Losing 1 would put them at 33RPs if they get all the rest, which would be tied with 2056 if 2056 gets all remaining RPs.

1 Like