in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 57
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 106
Best estimate: 69
{'bubble': 87, 'out': 92, '~in': 63, '~out': 155, 'in': 14}
0 in 85 - B.O.B. (Built on Brains)
1 in 1023 - Bedford Express
2 in 3534 - House of Cards
3 in 3546 - Buc'n'Gears
4 in 2137 - TORC
5 in 5926 - MooBotics
6 in 1918 - NC GEARS
7 in 5460 - Strike Zone
8 in 3602 - RoboMos
9 in 5114 - Titanium Tigers
10 in 5980 - East Grand Rapids Robotics
11 in 6193 - The Legend of Robotics
12 in 503 - Frog Force
13 in 3618 - Petoskey Paladins
14 ~in 107 - Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.
15 ~in 3538 - RoboJackets
16 ~in 5448 - CC Automationeers
17 ~in 2619 - The Charge
18 ~in 6098 - bIrobot
19 ~in 123 - Team - Cosmos
20 ~in 548 - Robostangs
21 ~in 3656 - Dreadbots
22 ~in 6086 - Ignition
23 ~in 4381 - Twisted Devils
24 ~in 5150 - Hybrid Hornets
25 ~in 1481 - The Riveters
26 ~in 3548 - RoboRavens2
27 ~in 3655 - Tractor Technicians
28 ~in 5053 - Lakers
29 ~in 5155 - Bearcats
30 ~in 1701 - RoboCubs
31 ~in 5222 - JackBotics
32 ~in 5502 - Cobrots
33 ~in 2959 - Robotarians
34 ~in 1250 - Gator-Bots
35 ~in 4680 - Az-Tech Eagles
36 ~in 3098 - The Captains
37 ~in 2611 - Jacktown Vectors
38 ~in 3770 - BlitzCreek
39 ~in 1684 - Chimeras
40 ~in 4003 - TriSonics
41 ~in 5166 - Fabricators
42 ~in 5084 - FridgeBot Inc.
43 ~in 2612 - The Corsairs
44 ~in 5712 - Hemlock's Gray Matter
45 ~in 5167 - Vi-Bots
46 ~in 2834 - Bionic Black Hawks
47 ~in 4377 - Boyne City Blaze
48 ~in 1025 - IMPIS
49 ~in 5203 - Volatile Chaos Inhibitors
50 ~in 5048 - Spartronics
51 ~in 2586 - Copper Bots
52 ~in 67 - The HOT Team
53 ~in 2767 - Stryke Force
54 ~in 3604 - Goon Squad
55 ~in 4391 - BraveBots
56 ~in 33 - Killer Bees
57 ~in 5843 - Flurb
58 ~in 3620 - Average Joes
59 ~in 27 - Team RUSH
60 ~in 308 - The Monsters
61 ~in 2832 - The Livonia Warriors
62 ~in 3535 - Galaktech Invaders
63 ~in 4376 - Raydernators
64 ~in 3357 - COMETS
65 ~in 1188 - RoboRavens1
66 ~in 4384 - Benzene Bots
67 bubble 6085 - Devil Bots
68 bubble 2960 - automation nation
69 bubble 5046 - Jacked Up Jackets
70 ~out 3658 - Robo - Beavers
71 ~in 70 - More Martians
72 ~out 4453 - The Red Hot Chili Bots
73 ~out 5710 - The O-Bots
74 ~out 4130 - The Blue Devils
75 ~out 5610 - Saugatuck Robotics
76 ~out 1506 - Metal Muscle
77 ~out 141 - WOBOT
78 ~out 857 - Superior Roboworks
79 ~out 904 - D cubed
80 ~out 5509 - Like a Boss.
81 ~out 5462 - 2PawR (2 Paw Robotics)
82 ~in 494 - Martians
83 ~out 5238 - Falconators
84 out 5915 - Mercy Midnight Storm
85 ~out 5534 - Onaway Onabots
86 ~in 5505 - V2 Robotics
87 ~out 1189 - The Gearheads
88 out 6067 - Underdogs
89 ~in 3707 - Brighton TechnoDogs
90 ~out 2405 - Techno Trojans
91 ~in 2054 - Tech Vikes
92 ~in 217 - ThunderChickens
93 out 5860 - Full Metal Muskrats
94 out 5675 - WiredCats
95 out 5661 - RoboCards
96 ~out 4956 - Robosharks
97 ~out 2604 - Metal and Soul
98 bubble 5907 - Shambots
99 ~out 245 - Adambots
100 ~in 3688 - Norsemen
101 ~out 3667 - Mecanum Knights
102 ~in 5050 - Cow Town Robotics
103 bubble 6081 - Digital Dislocators
104 bubble 6097 - Botcats
105 bubble 5878 - The Great Lakers
106 out 280 - TnT
107 out 5069 - The Iron Giants
108 ~in 3452 - GreengineerZ
109 ~in 3886 - More Titans
110 out 6071 - Bot Central
111 out 5547 - The Talons
112 out 4004 - M.A.R.S. Rovers
113 out 4779 - RoboSapiens
114 out 5248 - Robo-Saxons
115 out 5623 - Robotic Rams
116 out 6020 - JGHS
117 out 5234 - MarauderBots
118 bubble 6075 - Leland Zebrotics
119 out 2048 - The Pink Panthers
120 bubble 858 - Demons
121 out 4237 - Team Lance-A-Bot
122 bubble 6121 - Robo Vikes
123 bubble 1718 - The Fighting Pi
124 out 4994 - Kingston Robo-Cards
125 bubble 5567 - Code Red Robotics
126 bubble 6002 - ZooBOTix
127 bubble 6190 - Will-er Run
128 out 6066 - Rambler Robotics
129 bubble 5194 - Voltage
130 out 818 - Steel Armadillos
131 out 3570 - Pheonix
132 out 1 - The Juggernauts
133 bubble 573 - Mech Warriors
134 bubble 1711 - Raptors
135 out 1502 - Technical Difficulties
136 out 5216 - E-Ville Empire
137 out 5447 - Team Robotica
138 out 6043 - Allegan Tigers Robotics Team
139 out 5066 - Singularity
140 out 5561 - Raider Robotics
141 out 5473 - Team Spitfire.
142 out 5560 - Central Lake Trobotics
143 out 6073 - Cav-Bots
144 out 6094 - Manic Mechanics
145 bubble 469 - Las Guerrillas
146 out 5260 - Owosso Operating System
147 out 3547 - VIRUS
148 bubble 3668 - TroBots
149 out 3175 - Knight Vision
150 out 4368 - BullBots
151 out 3603 - Cyber Coyotes
152 out 815 - Advanced Power
153 out 5436 - Cyber Cats
154 bubble 3617 - Cold Logic
155 bubble 4835 - Junkyard Dawgs
156 bubble 4967 - That ONE Team
157 out 5056 - MegaHurtz
158 out 5224 - Panther Power
159 out 216 - More RoboDawgs
160 bubble 4362 - Gems
161 bubble 3641 - The Flying Toasters
162 out 5478 - Pershing Doughbots
163 bubble 201 - The FEDS
164 out 5229 - Heritage Hawkbots
165 out 1254 - Tech Force
166 bubble 6090 - Wayland Wildcats
167 bubble 2474 - Excel
168 bubble 3767 - Titan Robotics
169 out 3632 - D-Techs
170 out 6152 - ROBO-FALCONS
171 bubble 2337 - EngiNERDs
172 out 453 - Rockem Sockem Robotics
173 bubble 862 - Lightning Robotics
174 out 5756 - R.E.C'in Crew
175 bubble 5901 - Cougars
176 bubble 5230 - The Resistance
177 bubble 1076 - Pi Hi Samurai
178 out 288 - The RoboDawgs
179 bubble 68 - Truck Town Thunder
180 bubble 6089 - Annapolis Cougars
181 out 1243 - Dragons
182 out 5487 - Tiger Robotics
183 out 6137 - Red Theory
184 bubble 94 - The Technojays
185 bubble 5524 - MacroProcessors
186 bubble 910 - The Foley Freeze
187 out 5660 - A.R.T. Atherton Robotics Team
188 out 5674 - The GEARHOUNDS
189 bubble 3875 - Red Storm Robotics
190 out 5161 - Trojan Technicians
191 out 5612 - RoboRaptors
192 bubble 5555 - Spartans
193 bubble 51 - The Wings of Fire
194 out 6119 - Puma's
195 bubble 470 - Grizzly Robotics
196 out 5193 - Pantheon
197 bubble 894 - Chargers
198 bubble 2075 - Enigma Robotics
199 bubble 3414 - Hackbots
200 bubble 6117 - Team Eagle
201 bubble 4325 - RoboRangers
202 bubble 5662 - A Flock of Nerds
203 out 314 - The Megatron Oracles
204 out 5175 - Robo Panthers
205 bubble 5470 - Broncos
206 bubble 4970 - ICE Cubed
207 bubble 4819 - Flat Mountain Mechanics
208 out 5486 - Robotic Turmoil
209 bubble 5963 - CA Frost High School
210 bubble 6128 - Hart Pirates
211 bubble 5692 - ChiefBots
212 bubble 1596 - The Instigators
213 bubble 5067 - Steiner Steel Storm
214 bubble 4810 - I AM Robot
215 bubble 3539 - Byting Bulldogs
216 out 5182 - Chieftainators
217 out 4983 - IronBots
218 out 5688 - Robo Knights
219 out 5708 - Zebrotics
220 bubble 5709 - Rudyard Nerf Herders
221 bubble 4392 - The Deceivers
222 bubble 2673 - Tenacious Technicians
223 out 5784 - Vulcans
224 ~out 6113 - M.A.R.C. 1
225 ~out 6096 - UPSM Cobras
226 bubble 4216 - Blue Ops Robotics
227 bubble 5256 - Atomic Vikings
228 bubble 302 - The Dragons
229 bubble 2851 - Crevolution
230 bubble 5424 - Rogue Robots
231 bubble 5697 - Bearcats
232 bubble 1322 - Genesee Robotics Area Youth Te...
233 ~out 6112 - Stang Nation
234 out 5251 - WAYbots
235 bubble 5217 - Robocats
236 bubble 3773 - Cobalt Commanders
237 bubble 5525 - Tool Cats
238 bubble 3542 - S.P.E.E.D
239 out 313 - The Bionic Zebras
240 out 5703 - Eagles Crew
241 bubble 74 - Team C.H.A.O.S.
242 bubble 5246 - Tech Tribe
243 bubble 2620 - Titans
244 out 5156 - Laker Robots
245 out 5501 - Bobcats
246 out 5704 - Blended Learning Academies
247 out 5575 - SHOCK
248 ~out 6065 - Titanium Dragons
249 ~out 6208 - Mechstangs
250 bubble 5072 - Raider Robotics
251 bubble 703 - Team Phoenix
252 bubble 3322 - Eagle Imperium
253 ~out 5622 - Green Hornets
254 ~out 6093 - Unplugged
255 bubble 66 - Grizzly Robotics
256 ~out 5535 - Bionic Bison
257 ~out 5853 - FEAR The Termigators
258 ~out 6087 - Cybertronic Lancers
259 bubble 5152 - Alotobots
260 bubble 226 - Hammerheads
261 out 5282 - Railroaders
262 ~out 6120 - Cyberstangs
263 ~out 6100 - MSMohawks
264 ~out 6102 - Mustangs
265 ~out 5989 - Panthers
266 ~out 6150 - BlueBotics
267 ~out 6078 - RoboRams
268 bubble 830 - The RatPack
269 bubble 3572 - Wavelength
270 bubble 4776 - S.C.O.T.S. Bots
271 out 5226 - Syn. Surgers
272 out 5201 - Bronco Bots
273 ~out 6099 - Knight Riders
274 bubble 5014 - Wildcats
275 out 4408 - The Robo Panthers
276 out 244 - RoboDawgs 3D
277 out 3537 - Delta Force
278 out 5694 - Hamady Hawks
279 ~out 5695 - Heavy Duty Eagles
280 ~out 6114 - Do the Thing
281 ~out 6019 - Lapeer Homeschool
282 ~out 6088 - Stephenson Eagles
283 ~out 6138 - Bulldogs
284 bubble 4961 - Shock and Awe-sum
285 bubble 3568 - RoboEagles
286 ~out 6092 - Q-Bots
287 ~out 6074 - RoscoBots
288 ~out 6033 - Gaget Agents
289 ~out 6122 - Bear Lake
290 ~out 6108 - DRAGONBOTS
291 ~out 6079 - Mech Tech
292 ~out 4855 - Ramageddon
293 ~out 5774 - Maximum Overload
294 out 5538 - Vikingbots
295 ~out 5531 - Orange Crush
296 ~out 5577 - Kinematic Wolves
297 ~out 5562 - Laker Logistics
298 ~out 5642 - Mumford Mustangs
299 ~out 5650 - Carbonite Crusaders
300 ~out 6116 - Cougar Robotics
301 ~out 5927 - iCademy Globetrotters
302 ~out 5982 - Circuits of Destruction
303 ~out 3302 - TurboTrojans
304 ~out 247 - Da Bears
305 out 5231 - Radical Jays
306 out 5017 - Pirates
307 ~out 5745 - Gearheads
308 ~out 5517 - District 5517 The Engineers on...
309 ~out 4482 - Intelligent Design ID Robotic...
310 ~out 6091 - Eagle 1
311 ~out 6053 - Magi Pride
312 ~out 5247 - Red Devil Robotics
313 ~out 5559 - Gear Grinders
314 ~out 5467 - RoboTractors
315 ~out 6011 - Cyber Trojans
316 ~out 5504 - The Loose Connections
317 out 4768 - Comets
318 out 5227 - Eagle Elite
319 ~out 3398 - Crushing Crusaders
320 ~out 4827 - Minerbotics
321 out 5183 - Devil Bots
322 ~out 5676 - Robo-Hornets
323 ~out 5530 - The Lawnmowers
324 ~out 5685 - Robo Terriers
325 ~out 5713 - Beecher Cyber Bucs
326 out 4998 - TESLA
327 ~out 1504 - Desperate Penguins
328 ~out 4398 - Imprimis Deo
329 out 5173 - Robohawks
330 out 5214 - The Mighty CavBots
331 ~out 4380 - Dynomite
332 ~out 5263 - Robo-Bucs
333 ~out 5144 - P.R.E.D.A.T.O.R.S
334 ~out 835 - The Sting
335 ~out 4815 - ELECTROPANTHERS
336 ~out 5641 - Eagles
337 ~out 5532 - The G.O.A.T.S
338 ~out 5527 - Cyber Phoenix
339 ~out 4988 - Yooper Troopers
340 out 4758 - RoboBlazers
341 ~out 4851 - JungleBots
342 ~out 4715 - Big Bay Black Bears
343 ~out 5498 - Wired Devils
344 ~out 5603 - Rise of the Warrior Bots
345 ~out 5706 - Tahquamenon Phenomenon
346 ~out 5711 - Battling Bathers
347 ~out 5090 - Torque-Nados
348 ~out 4811 - Majestic Eagles
349 ~out 5235 - Gears of Fortune
350 ~out 5664 - Big Red Robotics
351 ~out 5702 - Robotawatomis
352 ~out 5619 - Jaguars
353 ~out 1896 - Concussive Engineers
354 ~out 4854 - Trobots
355 ~out 5574 - P.A.N.T.H.E.R.S.
356 ~out 5533 - Electric Horse Power
357 ~out 6005 - Cardinaltronics
358 ~out 6013 - Robowolves
359 ~out 6029 - The Railbots
360 ~out 6057 - Team Edsel
361 ~out 6077 - Wiking Kujon
362 ~out 6101 - RoboRaid
363 ~out 6136 - Ravens
364 ~out 5213 - St. Ignace SHIELD
365 ~out 468 - Aftershock
366 ~out 5068 - The Outsiders
367 ~out 4409 - Ground Zero
368 ~out 5204 - Robocats
369 ~out 4327 - Q Branch
370 ~out 5316 - The Architects
371 ~out 5205 - CHS FullMetal-Jackets
372 ~out 4390 - ATA Coregears
373 ~out 5162 - The Big Red Theory
374 ~out 1677 - Quantum Ninjas
375 out 5255 - Robotic Tigers
376 ~out 3619 - Blackhawks
377 ~out 4737 - Atomigators
378 ~out 240 - Tempest
379 ~out 4337 - R 13
380 ~out 322 - Team F.I.R.E.
381 ~out 2145 - HAZMATs
382 ~out 2591 - RedTails
383 ~out 2224 - RoboPhoenix
384 ~out 4507 - TARminators
385 ~out 4405 - The Atoms Family
386 ~out 5197 - DCP @ NW
387 ~out 4375 - Westend Gearbusters
388 ~out 3096 - The Village Bulldogs
389 ~out 4568 - Robot Commander
390 ~out 1940 - The Tech Tigers
391 ~out 3458 - Code Blue
392 ~out 5314 - Ice Bots
393 ~out 5215 - Steagles
394 ~out 5523 - RoboWarriors
395 ~out 5714 - Ojibwe Bots
396 ~out 5225 - The Shambotz
397 ~out 2676 - Ecorse Robo Raiders
398 ~out 5239 - Harper Woods Pioneers
399 ~out 5257 - CometKaze
400 ~out 1528 - MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics)
401 ~out 2246 - The Army of Sum
402 ~out 2771 - Code Red Robotics / Stray Dogs
403 ~out 3234 - Red Arrows
404 ~out 3536 - Electro Eagles
405 ~out 4395 - Dundee Vi-Borgs
406 ~out 4840 - The Panthers
407 ~out 5008 - (robo)LIONS
408 ~out 5065 - Knights
409 ~out 5086 - Cadillac Connectors
410 ~out 5110 - Elks
Thanks for doing this. What is your projection cutoff points at this time?
By the way, please put teams that won district chairman’s into the in group no matter how their robot performs. This may reduce the number of spots left and slightly raise the cutoff points.
My best guess for the point cutoff is 69, but the range that I estimate that it could be in is pretty wide: somewhere between 57 and 106. I need to do a better job of making this explicit in the listing since you aren’t the first one to ask.
There are several methodological improvements to the script that would make sense to do (like taking Chairman’s into account). I’m not planning to do any of them in time for this season though. However, it is easy to rerun the script as if there were a a few less slots at MSC. For example, there are currently four Chairman’s winning teams ranked below 102, and rerunning as if there are only 98 slots gives a cutoff between 59 and 107 with a best guess of 72, which is three points higher.
I projected the point cutoff a number of ways. (Since my team has a vested interest in the cutoff since we have 72 district points)
Before the season even started, I made a prediction using last years rankings. I used the ratio of the number of teams from this year to last year, multiplied that by 102 to get about 84th, subtracted a few to fudge for chairman’s, and found the district points of that rank in 2015, and got my preseason projection of 71 points being the cutoff.
I took the current rankings as of week 4. For any team that just played one event, I added the points they got from their first event, and ranked them. This only gave a score to 391/411 teams since the other 20 hadn’t played an event. Then by taking this ratio and multiplying it by 102 we get almost nearly 97. The points of 97th place in these projected rankings is 72 points. This doesn’t account for chairman’s, but there’s also historically a smaller proportion making it from State’s from those teams that play week 5 and 6, possibly because the level of competition has already gotten better. So I guessed that these two factors might cancel out. It’s worth noting that I did this same method after week 4 last year, and arrived at 65 which was just about the cutoff last year.
I took last years district points and using the scores from highest to lowest, made a graph with the x-axis being 1st, 2nd, 3rd, all the way to 345th (ignoring two teams that didn’t play events), and the y-axis being pre-MSC points. I then did a regression for this graph with an emphasis on the upper half fitting well. It ended up fitting a 4-parameter logistic curve quite well. Thus, by using the equation y=d+(a-d)/(1+(x/c)^b) I got coefficients of a=167.13, b=0.65, c=106.18, d=-43.16. I then assumed that one would need to be in top 96, thereby accounting for chairman’s. Using the figures of 345 teams in 2015, 411 teams in 2016, we again take that ratio and multiply it by 96, and get 80.58. Find y(80.58) and get 71.39. Again getting that the cutoff will be between 71 and 72 (i.e. that some teams with 71 will make it).
Given that I’ve used three different methods, I am now willing to say with some confidence that the cutoff will be around 72. This does not reassure me (since my team has 72 points!)
I’ve taken a (admittedly very crude) crack at this, and come up with 107 points as a “worst case” at the conclusion of week 4.
Here is my spreadsheet, where I took 102 slots (?) for MSC, subtracted the 14 teams already qualified via Chairman’s or what-have-you, leaving 88 spots. I then used the max amount of points any single team earned at their first comp (76), and added that to every team who hasn’t played a second time, and as both event scores for the teams yet to play at all. 106 points would leave you right on the bubble depending on tie breakers. This is viewable when you use the second filter view.
Obviously every team earning 76 points at their next competition isn’t at all realistic, but it’s early in the morning and I should be sleeping, so a more realistic set of criteria will have to wait until later.
Great analysis. I think 72 should be very close to the cutoff like you predicted. Can you redo 2 with data from Week 5 and see what the cutoff is? You should be doing this for Michigan every year from now on.
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 66
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 92
Best estimate: 71
{'bubble': 37, 'out': 205, '~in': 46, '~out': 81, 'in': 42}
0 in 67 - The HOT Team
1 in 33 - Killer Bees
2 in 2834 - Bionic Black Hawks
3 in 85 - B.O.B. (Built on Brains)
4 in 3357 - COMETS
5 in 1023 - Bedford Express
6 in 5505 - V2 Robotics
7 in 3534 - House of Cards
8 in 2767 - Stryke Force
9 in 1718 - The Fighting Pi
10 in 3620 - Average Joes
11 in 3546 - Buc'n'Gears
12 in 2137 - TORC
13 in 5926 - MooBotics
14 in 1918 - NC GEARS
15 in 5460 - Strike Zone
16 in 3602 - RoboMos
17 in 4384 - Benzene Bots
18 in 5114 - Titanium Tigers
19 in 5980 - East Grand Rapids Robotics
20 in 4377 - Boyne City Blaze
21 in 6193 - The Legend of Robotics
22 in 70 - More Martians
23 in 494 - Martians
24 in 503 - Frog Force
25 in 3618 - Petoskey Paladins
26 in 107 - Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.
27 in 3538 - RoboJackets
28 in 5448 - CC Automationeers
29 in 2619 - The Charge
30 in 2054 - Tech Vikes
31 in 6098 - bIrobot
32 in 123 - Team - Cosmos
33 in 217 - ThunderChickens
34 in 2337 - EngiNERDs
35 in 548 - Robostangs
36 in 3656 - Dreadbots
37 in 6086 - Ignition
38 in 4381 - Twisted Devils
39 in 5150 - Hybrid Hornets
40 in 1481 - The Riveters
41 in 3548 - RoboRavens2
42 ~in 3655 - Tractor Technicians
43 ~in 5053 - Lakers
44 ~in 573 - Mech Warriors
45 ~in 4362 - Gems
46 ~in 5155 - Bearcats
47 ~in 2474 - Excel
48 ~in 1701 - RoboCubs
49 ~in 68 - Truck Town Thunder
50 ~in 3539 - Byting Bulldogs
51 ~in 4967 - That ONE Team
52 ~in 5222 - JackBotics
53 ~in 5502 - Cobrots
54 ~in 2959 - Robotarians
55 ~in 1250 - Gator-Bots
56 ~in 3707 - Brighton TechnoDogs
57 ~in 4680 - Az-Tech Eagles
58 ~in 3098 - The Captains
59 ~in 2611 - Jacktown Vectors
60 ~in 3770 - BlitzCreek
61 ~in 1684 - Chimeras
62 ~in 4003 - TriSonics
63 ~in 858 - Demons
64 ~in 5166 - Fabricators
65 ~in 5084 - FridgeBot Inc.
66 ~in 3668 - TroBots
67 ~in 2612 - The Corsairs
68 ~in 5712 - Hemlock's Gray Matter
69 ~in 5167 - Vi-Bots
70 ~in 5230 - The Resistance
71 ~in 2771 - Code Red Robotics / Stray Dogs
72 ~in 1025 - IMPIS
73 ~in 5203 - Volatile Chaos Inhibitors
74 ~in 5048 - Spartronics
75 ~in 2586 - Copper Bots
76 ~in 3604 - Goon Squad
77 ~in 4391 - BraveBots
78 ~in 51 - The Wings of Fire
79 out 5843 - Flurb
80 ~in 27 - Team RUSH
81 ~in 5567 - Code Red Robotics
82 ~in 308 - The Monsters
83 ~in 2832 - The Livonia Warriors
84 ~in 3535 - Galaktech Invaders
85 bubble 4392 - The Deceivers
86 bubble 2851 - Crevolution
87 bubble 4376 - Raydernators
88 ~out 1188 - RoboRavens1
89 ~out 201 - The FEDS
90 ~out 4810 - I AM Robot
91 ~out 910 - The Foley Freeze
92 out 6085 - Devil Bots
93 ~out 2960 - automation nation
94 ~out 5046 - Jacked Up Jackets
95 out 6002 - ZooBOTix
96 ~out 3658 - Robo - Beavers
97 ~out 4325 - RoboRangers
98 ~out 469 - Las Guerrillas
99 ~out 4453 - The Red Hot Chili Bots
100 out 5710 - The O-Bots
101 ~out 4130 - The Blue Devils
102 out 5610 - Saugatuck Robotics
103 out 1596 - The Instigators
104 out 3617 - Cold Logic
105 out 1506 - Metal Muscle
106 out 6081 - Digital Dislocators
107 out 141 - WOBOT
108 out 857 - Superior Roboworks
109 out 6090 - Wayland Wildcats
110 out 904 - D cubed
111 out 5509 - Like a Boss.
112 out 5462 - 2PawR (2 Paw Robotics)
113 out 5238 - Falconators
114 out 5915 - Mercy Midnight Storm
115 out 5534 - Onaway Onabots
116 out 1189 - The Gearheads
117 out 226 - Hammerheads
118 out 6067 - Underdogs
119 out 2405 - Techno Trojans
120 out 6117 - Team Eagle
121 out 703 - Team Phoenix
122 out 862 - Lightning Robotics
123 out 5860 - Full Metal Muskrats
124 out 5675 - WiredCats
125 out 5661 - RoboCards
126 out 4956 - Robosharks
127 out 2604 - Metal and Soul
128 bubble 5907 - CC Shambots
129 out 5162 - The Big Red Theory
130 out 245 - Adambots
131 ~in 3688 - Norsemen
132 out 3667 - Mecanum Knights
133 out 302 - The Dragons
134 out 1076 - Pi Hi Samurai
135 out 5662 - A Flock of Nerds
136 out 4409 - Ground Zero
137 ~in 5050 - Cow Town Robotics
138 out 2075 - Enigma Robotics
139 out 4776 - S.C.O.T.S. Bots
140 out 6114 - Do the Thing
141 bubble 6097 - Botcats
142 out 4819 - Flat Mountain Mechanics
143 bubble 5878 - The Great Lakers
144 out 280 - TnT
145 out 5069 - The Iron Giants
146 ~in 3452 - GreengineerZ
147 ~in 3886 - More Titans
148 out 6071 - Bot Central
149 out 894 - Chargers
150 out 6120 - Cyberstangs
151 out 5547 - The Talons
152 out 4004 - M.A.R.S. Rovers
153 out 4779 - RoboSapiens
154 out 5248 - Robo-Saxons
155 out 5623 - Robotic Rams
156 out 3572 - Wavelength
157 out 6020 - JGHS
158 out 5068 - The Outsiders
159 out 5234 - MarauderBots
160 bubble 6075 - Leland Zebrotics
161 out 3568 - RoboEagles
162 out 5256 - Atomic Vikings
163 out 4970 - ICE Cubed
164 out 2048 - The Pink Panthers
165 out 6108 - DRAGONBOTS
166 out 4237 - Team Lance-A-Bot
167 bubble 6121 - Robo Vikes
168 out 5247 - Red Devil Robotics
169 out 4994 - Kingston Robo-Cards
170 bubble 6190 - Will-er Run
171 out 3875 - Red Storm Robotics
172 out 6066 - Rambler Robotics
173 bubble 5194 - Voltage
174 bubble 3536 - Electro Eagles
175 out 5470 - Broncos
176 out 818 - Steel Armadillos
177 out 4961 - Shock and Awe-sum
178 out 470 - Grizzly Robotics
179 out 3570 - Pheonix
180 out 1 - The Juggernauts
181 out 4827 - Minerbotics
182 bubble 1711 - Raptors
183 out 5622 - Green Hornets
184 out 1502 - Technical Difficulties
185 out 5216 - E-Ville Empire
186 out 5559 - Gear Grinders
187 out 5447 - Team Robotica
188 out 6043 - Allegan Tigers Robotics Team
189 out 5424 - Rogue Robots
190 out 4327 - Q Branch
191 out 5066 - Singularity
192 bubble 6013 - Robowolves
193 out 5561 - Raider Robotics
194 out 5473 - Team Spitfire.
195 out 830 - The RatPack
196 out 5517 - District 5517 The Engineers on...
197 out 5560 - Central Lake Trobotics
198 out 6113 - M.A.R.C. 1
199 out 6073 - Cav-Bots
200 out 6094 - Manic Mechanics
201 out 5260 - Owosso Operating System
202 out 3547 - VIRUS
203 out 3175 - Knight Vision
204 out 6088 - Stephenson Eagles
205 out 4368 - BullBots
206 out 5692 - ChiefBots
207 out 3603 - Cyber Coyotes
208 out 815 - Advanced Power
209 out 5436 - Cyber Cats
210 bubble 6057 - Team Edsel
211 out 5555 - Spartans
212 bubble 4835 - Junkyard Dawgs
213 out 5056 - MegaHurtz
214 out 5224 - Panther Power
215 out 216 - More RoboDawgs
216 bubble 3641 - The Flying Toasters
217 out 5530 - The Lawnmowers
218 out 5478 - Pershing Doughbots
219 out 1322 - Genesee Robotics Area Youth Te...
220 out 4375 - Westend Gearbusters
221 out 5229 - Heritage Hawkbots
222 out 1254 - Tech Force
223 bubble 3767 - Titan Robotics
224 out 3632 - D-Techs
225 out 5963 - CA Frost High School
226 out 5989 - Panthers
227 out 6152 - ROBO-FALCONS
228 out 453 - Rockem Sockem Robotics
229 out 6065 - Titanium Dragons
230 out 5535 - Bionic Bison
231 out 5756 - R.E.C'in Crew
232 bubble 5901 - Cougars
233 out 288 - The RoboDawgs
234 bubble 6089 - Annapolis Cougars
235 out 1243 - Dragons
236 out 5487 - Tiger Robotics
237 out 5152 - Alotobots
238 out 6137 - Red Theory
239 bubble 94 - The Technojays
240 out 5702 - Robotawatomis
241 bubble 5524 - MacroProcessors
242 out 3398 - Crushing Crusaders
243 out 4390 - ATA Coregears
244 out 5660 - A.R.T. Atherton Robotics Team
245 out 5674 - The GEARHOUNDS
246 out 5161 - Trojan Technicians
247 out 5612 - RoboRaptors
248 out 6119 - Puma's
249 bubble 6077 - Wiking Kujon
250 out 5193 - Pantheon
251 bubble 3414 - Hackbots
252 out 314 - The Megatron Oracles
253 out 5745 - Gearheads
254 out 6099 - Knight Riders
255 out 6087 - Cybertronic Lancers
256 out 5246 - Tech Tribe
257 out 5175 - Robo Panthers
258 out 5486 - Robotic Turmoil
259 out 5642 - Mumford Mustangs
260 out 6102 - Mustangs
261 out 6078 - RoboRams
262 ~out 6128 - The Automatics
263 bubble 5067 - Steiner Steel Storm
264 out 5619 - Jaguars
265 out 5182 - Chieftainators
266 out 4983 - IronBots
267 out 5688 - Robo Knights
268 out 5708 - Zebrotics
269 out 5927 - iCademy Globetrotters
270 out 6138 - Bulldogs
271 bubble 5709 - Rudyard Nerf Herders
272 bubble 2673 - Tenacious Technicians
273 out 5676 - Robo-Hornets
274 out 5784 - Vulcans
275 ~out 6096 - UPSM Cobras
276 bubble 4216 - Blue Ops Robotics
277 bubble 3234 - Red Arrows
278 out 240 - Tempest
279 bubble 5697 - Bearcats
280 out 4337 - R 13
281 ~out 6112 - Stang Nation
282 out 4811 - Majestic Eagles
283 out 5251 - WAYbots
284 out 5695 - Heavy Duty Eagles
285 out 4482 - Intelligent Design ID Robotic...
286 out 6079 - Mech Tech
287 out 6091 - Eagle 1
288 ~out 6101 - RoboRaid
289 bubble 5217 - Robocats
290 bubble 3773 - Cobalt Commanders
291 ~out 5525 - Tool Cats
292 bubble 3542 - S.P.E.E.D
293 out 313 - The Bionic Zebras
294 out 322 - Team F.I.R.E.
295 out 5703 - Eagles Crew
296 bubble 74 - Team C.H.A.O.S.
297 bubble 2620 - Titans
298 out 5156 - Laker Robots
299 out 5501 - Bobcats
300 out 5650 - Carbonite Crusaders
301 out 5532 - The G.O.A.T.S
302 out 5704 - Blended Learning Academies
303 out 5575 - SHOCK
304 ~out 6208 - Mechstangs
305 bubble 5072 - Raider Robotics
306 bubble 3322 - Eagle Imperium
307 out 247 - Da Bears
308 out 4715 - Big Bay Black Bears
309 ~out 6093 - Unplugged
310 bubble 66 - Grizzly Robotics
311 ~out 5853 - FEAR The Termigators
312 out 5282 - Railroaders
313 out 5706 - Tahquamenon Phenomenon
314 ~out 6100 - MSMohawks
315 out 6011 - Cyber Trojans
316 ~out 6150 - BlueBotics
317 out 5226 - Syn. Surgers
318 out 5201 - Bronco Bots
319 out 5641 - Eagles
320 out 2591 - RedTails
321 ~out 5014 - Wildcats
322 out 4408 - The Robo Panthers
323 out 5316 - The Architects
324 out 244 - RoboDawgs 3D
325 out 3537 - Delta Force
326 out 5694 - Hamady Hawks
327 out 5713 - Beecher Cyber Bucs
328 ~out 6019 - Lapeer Homeschool
329 ~out 5110 - Elks
330 out 468 - Aftershock
331 out 4815 - ELECTROPANTHERS
332 ~out 6092 - Q-Bots
333 ~out 6074 - RoscoBots
334 ~out 6033 - Gaget Agents
335 ~out 6122 - Bear Lake
336 ~out 4855 - Ramageddon
337 out 1677 - Quantum Ninjas
338 out 5235 - Gears of Fortune
339 out 5314 - Ice Bots
340 out 5664 - Big Red Robotics
341 ~out 5774 - Maximum Overload
342 out 5538 - Vikingbots
343 ~out 5531 - Orange Crush
344 ~out 5577 - Kinematic Wolves
345 ~out 5562 - Laker Logistics
346 ~out 6116 - Cougar Robotics
347 ~out 6029 - The Railbots
348 ~out 6005 - Cardinaltronics
349 ~out 5982 - Circuits of Destruction
350 ~out 3302 - TurboTrojans
351 out 1940 - The Tech Tigers
352 out 5231 - Radical Jays
353 out 5017 - Pirates
354 ~out 6053 - Magi Pride
355 out 2145 - HAZMATs
356 out 5574 - P.A.N.T.H.E.R.S.
357 ~out 5467 - RoboTractors
358 ~out 5504 - The Loose Connections
359 out 4568 - Robot Commander
360 out 4768 - Comets
361 out 5227 - Eagle Elite
362 out 5183 - Devil Bots
363 ~out 5523 - RoboWarriors
364 ~out 5685 - Robo Terriers
365 out 4998 - TESLA
366 ~out 6136 - Ravens
367 ~out 1504 - Desperate Penguins
368 out 5239 - Harper Woods Pioneers
369 ~out 4398 - Imprimis Deo
370 out 3096 - The Village Bulldogs
371 out 3458 - Code Blue
372 out 5173 - Robohawks
373 out 5214 - The Mighty CavBots
374 ~out 4380 - Dynomite
375 ~out 5263 - Robo-Bucs
376 ~out 5144 - P.R.E.D.A.T.O.R.S
377 ~out 835 - The Sting
378 ~out 5527 - Cyber Phoenix
379 ~out 5008 - (robo)LIONS
380 ~out 4988 - Yooper Troopers
381 out 4758 - RoboBlazers
382 ~out 4851 - JungleBots
383 ~out 5498 - Wired Devils
384 ~out 5603 - Rise of the Warrior Bots
385 ~out 5711 - Battling Bathers
386 ~out 4395 - Dundee Vi-Borgs
387 ~out 5090 - Torque-Nados
388 ~out 1528 - MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics)
389 ~out 5086 - Cadillac Connectors
390 ~out 1896 - Concussive Engineers
391 ~out 4854 - Trobots
392 ~out 2246 - The Army of Sum
393 ~out 5533 - Electric Horse Power
394 ~out 5213 - St. Ignace SHIELD
395 ~out 5204 - Robocats
396 ~out 5714 - Ojibwe Bots
397 ~out 5205 - CHS FullMetal-Jackets
398 out 5255 - Robotic Tigers
399 ~out 3619 - Blackhawks
400 ~out 4737 - Atomigators
401 ~out 2224 - RoboPhoenix
402 ~out 4507 - TARminators
403 ~out 4405 - The Atoms Family
404 ~out 5065 - Knights
405 ~out 5197 - DCP @ NW
406 ~out 5215 - Steagles
407 ~out 5225 - The Shambotz
408 ~out 2676 - Ecorse Robo Raiders
409 ~out 5257 - CometKaze
410 ~out 4840 - The Panthers
I repeated the analysis on the data. Now, everyone has played one or two events (except one team that I presume will not attend any) and thus we don’t need to fudge the number of slots for teams that haven’t played. With these projected points, the 102nd slot was the very last team with 72 points. If you account for chairman’s winners, which so far there are 5 winners that are below the cutoff. There may be more come week 6, but if you assume 5 auto-qualifiers, then the cutoff is the very last team with 73 points.
This is interesting because it has gone up ever so slightly from last week. But there are other factors at play. There are more teams than usual this year that are playing their second event in week 6 than other weeks (since there were relatively fewer 3rd district slots this year, and a lot of them were are LSSU, for example). This shouldn’t bias the data that much, but it reduces the external factor that 3rd district teams tend to do marginally better than teams playing their 2nd district out, because they have more experience in the year. Thus, it implies that the cutoff may be closer to the chairman’s fudged cutoff of 73. Either way I think it means that there’s room for variance, but it is likely that either all teams with 72 points and some with 71 make it in, or just some teams with 72 make it in (ignoring declines).
On another aside, I dug up this post from last year that presents an approximation based on past years points and only is dependent on % of teams attending. If we use 102 teams out of 410 teams for this year, and plug it into that equation, we get approximately 71.39 points which I thought was just so cool since that’s what my totally different regression method got (see 3 from my post). I do think that this formula gives a bit low of a number since it was a bit low last year, and that’s probably because it doesn’t account for the change in district points last year. I would try to add last year’s data point to that data, but I don’t know where to find the data from previous years that he used.
Michigan state championship qualification is brutal this year.
If i’m reading the predictions correctly,
great teams like 469, 862 & 910 did not qualify for the state event :eek:
I don’t think ANY Chairman’s Awards are taken into consideration in this analysis. 1322 (curently in 220th w/ 37pts) won Chairman’s and is qualified for MSC, yet the newest version posted in comment #13 has them listed as “out”.