Hi all,
The Mihirungs, myself included, have done some scoring modelling for the 2025 REEFSCAPE season. So far, we’ve done some mathematical modelling based on the following assumptions:
- We are not scoring in the top-most layer of the REEF.
- With coopertition on offer requiring only the lower 3 layers for a potential RP, and with the extra effort required to score at both a different angle and on a higher rung, we decided this was not worth the effort. In the Australian competitive context, we predict that coopertition will be offered by the opposing alliance more often than not.
- We are not scoring ALGAE in the net on the BARGE.
- To place ALGAE accurately in the net, we predict it would require a pick-and-place rather than a launching mechanism to be reproducable. To keep the mechanisms that we construct bounded within the 3 day time limit, we’ve decided to skip this scoring element.
Further, we’ve made the following initial assessments:
- The time required to complete scoring objectives can be modelled as a normal distribution. Here are our initial (conservative) estimates.
- Time required to load a CORAL: N(4, 0.25)
- Travel from CORAL collection → REEF: N(4, 0.5)
- Place a CORAL on the REEF: N(6, 0.75) (multiplied by the level)
- Travel from the REEF to the PROCESSOR and deposit an ALGAE: N(5, 0.5)
These assessments are just ballpark at the moment - when we assemble the field elements, we’ll give this a crack on the field and create more up-to-date distributions.
We’ve also identified a few possible strategies:
- Coral-only, starting from the 2nd from the top level of the REEF and work down
- Coral-only, starting from the bottom level of the REEF (not the trough) and working up
- Coral + Processor, starting from the 2nd from the top level of the REEF and work down
- Coral + Processor, starting from the bottom level of the REEF (not the trough) and working up
With these in mind, we’ve run some simulations (not accounting for Auto, not including endgame - we may still perform an endgame, we just haven’t modelled it here). We’ve swept the scoring simulation across the above four strategies, with a varying chance of the opponent human player “making the shot” once receiving an ALGAE from the PROCESSOR.
For no-ALGAE, our scoring potential is pretty low but consistent.
Including an ALGAE scoring mechanism into the PROCESSOR, our scoring potential doubles if the opposing HUMAN PLAYER has a 25% chance of making the shot into the BARGE.
This decreases a bit if the HUMAN PLAYER has a 50% chance of success.
With 75%, that decreases more…
And with a 100% chance of sinking the shot, we see that our scores revert to what they looked like with just CORAL, however shifted slightly up the scoring axis.
What this tells us is, even accounting for the extra time it takes to deposit an ALGAE in the PROCESSOR, it is almost always better to do CORAL + ALGAE rather than cycling just CORAL. Given that ALGAE has to be ejected for a CORAL to be placed, it is almost always worth it to tack on an extra simple mechanism to place ALGAE into the PROCESSOR after a CORAL is placed.
Of course, this is all contingent on the predicted cycle times we’ve got. We’ll continue running the numbers with more up to date estimates.
Hope this helps in your strategic planning!
Best,
Jaci
