MN 2019 in an Alternate Universe

FIRST General Forum
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Disclaimer, I am not trying to make a statement about the current state system or how MNFIRST is run, I’m only just putting this out here for fun.

Now, the first thing I’ve noticed is that there are quite a few disagreements with the MSHSL State Qualification system, so I’ve tried a few modifications to see how it would look for this year.

First, let’s try taking the “best event” a team has instead of just the first event a team goes to. All other rules are still applied, including Chairman’s automatic qualification.

Team Ranking Team Number Team Score Chairmans?
1 1816 72 Chairmans
2 4607 53 Chairmans
3 2883 51 Chairmans
4 3313 43 Chairmans
5 2220 40 Chairmans
6 2500 23 Chairmans
7 5172 73
8 2052 73
9 3750 72
10 3102 70
11 2549 69
12 2502 59
13 4728 57
14 7028 55
15 3926 53
16 4009 53
17 4539 52
18 5348 50
19 2175 50
20 3630 49
21 3100 47
22 3082 46
23 2987 46
24 4506 46
25 5991 44
26 2823 44
27 4859 43
28 5690 42
29 3184 42
30 2508 41
31 3026 40
32 6175 40
33 2574 40
34 4703 38
35 7541 37
36 7432 37

Now, here’s a very similar chart, but with Chairman’s removed and the team age bonus removed

Team Ranking Team # Team Score
1 5172 73
2 2052 73
3 3750 72
4 1816 72
5 3102 70
6 2549 69
7 2502 59
8 4728 57
9 4607 53
10 3926 53
11 4009 53
12 4539 52
13 2883 51
14 5348 50
15 7028 50
16 2175 50
17 3630 49
18 3100 47
19 3082 46
20 2987 46
21 4506 46
22 5991 44
23 2823 44
24 4859 43
25 3313 43
26 5690 42
27 3184 42
28 2508 41
29 3026 40
30 6175 40
31 2574 40
32 2220 40
33 2957 36
34 3042 36
35 3277 35
36 4239 35

Now a final thing that I thought about… why does state have to be capped at 36 teams? I decided to instead take the top 20% state scorers, or the top 44 teams in Minnesota and make that initial table of the best event a bit longer.

Team Ranking Team # Team Score
37 2957 36
38 3042 36
39 3277 35
40 4239 35
41 2227 35
42 2526 35
43 3883 34
44 3130 33

Now for the grand finale, I’m going to take a hint from California, and look at how districts “would have looked” for this year. Obviously this is not a very legitimate thing, since we didn’t have districts, and there are major issues with extrapolating out regional data to pretend it’s district data, but I just had to do it. For teams that only attended one event, I just doubled their scores to make the data seem more legitimate. I also haven’t checked this manually, so there could be errors in the scoring, but I’m pretty sure it fits the district model (as well as I possibly could).

Team Ranking Team # Team Score
1 5172 146
2 3750 144
3 2052 141
4 3102 129
5 4728 114
6 1816 113
7 4607 111
8 3926 106
9 5348 100
10 2549 100
11 4009 100
12 2883 97
13 2502 96
14 4506 92
15 3100 89
16 5991 88
17 4859 86
18 4539 85
19 2175 84
20 7028 84
21 2220 83
22 3630 82
23 6175 80
24 2823 77
25 2987 76
26 3313 76
27 5690 75
28 2957 72
29 3082 67
30 4703 66
31 2264 66
32 2227 64
33 5638 64
34 7541 64
35 3130 63
36 3042 63
37 6132 62
38 3122 62
39 2574 61
40 4663 60
41 2511 60
42 3244 60
43 3883 59
44 4198 59
45 2503 58
46 3293 58
47 3691 56
48 5278 56
49 5929 56
50 5914 55
51 3184 54
52 5542 54
53 2989 54
54 4226 54
55 2508 53
56 3755 52
57 2526 52
58 2500 52
59 7864 52
60 2129 50
61 3007 50
62 3206 49
63 3026 48
64 6628 48
65 5658 48
66 7850 48
67 4741 46
68 6217 46
69 7432 46
70 7273 45
71 2169 45
72 6045 44
73 5913 44
74 4182 44
75 7797 44
76 2530 43
77 4239 42
78 6160 42
79 4360 42
80 5653 42
81 4207 41
82 4480 40
83 4536 40
84 2509 40
85 7677 40
86 2177 40
87 7858 40
88 3277 39
89 5464 39
90 7893 38
91 5232 37
92 7038 37
93 4656 36
94 3751 36
95 2232 34
96 3038 34
97 6022 34
98 3633 33
99 6912 33
100 7041 33

I am by no means a district expert, but I’m pretty sure that at least the top 60 ranked teams would make a district championship and that at least the top 20 ranked teams in points would qualify for championship (this would be after district champs scored are added as well)

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions please leave them below!

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Couple of adjustments to your standings in the third list:
You have the age bonus doubled, it’s on a per season basis not a per event basis.
Also, chairman’s is worth 10 points in districts but not included in the MN state points.

Just eyeballing the unadjusted numbers for Texas in the game manual, MN would get roughly 41 spots at champs of which 3 CA, 2EI, and 2RAS awards would count against. 1816 and 2220 would not count against that 41 due to been pre-qualifed based on being chairman finalist in 2018.

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Thanks for the heads up, I totally forgot to take that out. The updated rankings now only give the team age bonus once and also no longer extrapolate Rookie All Star to a hypothetical 2nd event.

Additionally, Chairman’s points should be correct in those “district” rankings

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I would say we’re likely more comparable to New England, who also qualifies to Detroit. It looks like the Houston teams ended up bumped higher, probably due to a team imbalance. At current rates that would put us closer to 33-34 than 41.

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Schedule. There are only so many hours in the day. In order to get enough plays per team during quals, keep it to a 1-day event, and end at a decent enough time for teams that need to travel home, we have to have a limit. We went up from 30 a couple of years ago, based on a new schedule proposal from the FTA’s. The interesting discussion would be turning it into a 2 day event… But that would increase costs (adding an overnight hotel) for Non-metro area teams that have to travel, something the MSHSL doesn’t want to do at this point in time. Of course, many of those teams have some of those costs already, sending down a skeleton crew to handle load in the night before. Changing from load in Friday evening, competition Saturday to load in Saturday morning, competition Saturday and Sunday would be an interesting change.

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Yeah, I can see the obvious logistics of it as a one day event, but it’s just such a shame to see so many high performing teams just barely outside of the qualification criteria. It sure seems like having a two day competition would be the most practical way to add teams and ensure that there are enough qualification matches for legitimate rankings.

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New England is probably better to use to estimate.
NE is at 203 and gets 33 (note 4/2/2 on awards). (based on: http://frc-districtrankings.firstinspires.org/2019/NE) At 221 we would get ~10% more so I guess 36 is a reasonable estimate.

(makes that 31 normalized for Texas make more sense too).

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We usually send around 30 with the regional system. It always seemed to me that one advantage of the district system was that more teams would end up going to champs.

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Since this is all kind of an oddball case thread…
3277 in districts would actually be at 8 (not 39). After struggling at Lake Superior and Great Northern they were significantly better North Star as their 3rd event. They wouldn’t get those points for district points. Since this all hypothetical, if MN was a district and they did that as third event regional, they would take one of the allotted MN spots. Something to consider if people want to play what if.

(BTW - tip of the cap to 3277. They spent some serious time on Saturday at the practice field at Great Northern getting their swerve software working. I question handing out beach balls as swag but I distinctly noticed the effort they were putting in and I am glad it paid off for them.)

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Well, it is still an advantage, but it’s more the bigger picture of it all. (For example, Ontario had 29 slots last year out of 157 teams and sent 32. Remember there are other ways of qualifying outside of specifically through district points or district qualifying awards). The bigger picture is that qualifying at regional competitions takes a very specific procedure - either you make finals or you win a qualifying awards. Districts obviously take a different approach that is more “holistic” I guess you could say, but I’ll just leave it at that.

Another good catch, I was just getting lazy and taking the first two regionals in alphabetical order since I forgot 3277 went to 3. I’ll update the rankings accordingly when I get around to it. (I was also glad that they finally got things turned around at North Star and had great results there!)

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An additional scenario I’ve heard brought up…

Last event a team plays at
# Team Number Score Chairman's?
1 1816 72 Chairmans
2 4607 53 Chairmans
3 2883 51 Chairmans
4 3313 43 Chairmans
5 2220 33 Chairmans
6 2500 23 Chairmans
7 5172 73
8 3750 72
9 2549 69
10 2052 68
11 3102 59
12 4728 57
13 7028 55
14 3926 53
15 5348 50
16 2175 50
17 4009 47
18 3082 46
19 2987 46
20 4506 46
21 5991 44
22 4859 43
23 3100 42
24 3184 42
25 2508 41
26 3026 40
27 6175 40
28 4703 38
29 2502 37
30 7541 37
31 7432 37
32 2957 36
33 3042 36
34 3277 35
35 2227 35
36 2526 35
Last event a team plays at (without Chairman's & team age bonus)
# Team Number Score
1 5172 73
2 3750 72
3 1816 72
4 2549 69
5 2052 68
6 3102 59
7 4728 57
8 4607 53
9 3926 53
10 2883 51
11 5348 50
12 7028 50
13 2175 50
14 4009 47
15 3082 46
16 2987 46
17 4506 46
18 5991 44
19 4859 43
20 3313 43
21 3100 42
22 3184 42
23 2508 41
24 3026 40
25 6175 40
26 2502 37
27 2957 36
28 3042 36
29 3277 35
30 2227 35
31 2526 35
32 2823 33
33 5690 33
34 3130 33
35 3630 33
36 4539 33
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