MN State High School League Tournament

#1

I started this thread the last couple of years so might as well do it this year.

Anything I post is my commentary - please refer to the official standings on the MN FIRST website for official information.

The past few years, the cutoff has been 31 points for MN state. Some teams with 31 make it and some with 31 don’t each year. That’s not set in stone. So far this year my opinion is Deep Space tends to play to less upsets in eliminations so it’s more likely to be lower than higher.

Coming out of the big Duluth Weekend…These teams will be easily in:

1816, 4607 with chairman wins.

2052, 3750, 3102, 4728, 4009, 4539, 5348, 3630, 3100, 5991, 2823, 5690, 4859, 2574 all with 40+ points.

On the bubble on the likely in side:
At 34 points - 3883 and 7028
At 33 points - 2264
At 32 points - 5638

Really on the bubble:
At 31 points - 6132 and 7864

Teams hoping I am right that this season may dip lower:
At 30 points - 3130, 2511, 2987, 7797
At 29 points - 2503, 4198
At 28 points - 4703, 3691

edit - I had some typoes and corrected.

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[MN 2019] Season in Review and Champs Preview
#2

How many points would the automatic qualifiers have? I know there is usually a lot of debate about whether CA should be an auto qualifier so it’s cool when the CA teams would be qualified anyways.

#4

My opinion is chairmans being worth 10 points would be in line with the rest of the system.

4607 would be at 48 before awards points.
1816 would be at 31 before awards points.

So I would say they both would be in without chairmans being automatic.

#5

Official rankings after week 2 are posted, the link to them can be found here: https://mnfirst.org/off-season-events/mshsl-championship/

Any questions (or if you find any issues) can be directed to StateRankings@mnfirst.org.

Now that we got through the first week of posting (which includes some additional validation to ensure the app is running smoothly), future updates should happen quicker… With the exception of next week, as I’ll have a 4.5 hour drive home from Grand Forks first!

#6

The big difference between what I posted (after a few edits) and the official standings is 7797 is at 31 instead of 30. The source I was looking at for points based on rank had 32nd at a 63 team event as 12 when it’s really 13. That difference puts 7797 square in the bubble area although they won’t have any tie breakers.

7864 and 7797 do highlight something I have never really understood about the whole MN state point system. Neither played in eliminations but both are above 3130 who played in the finals at Northern Lights and 2511 who was captain at Northern Lights. The reason is rookie teams get a 10 point seasonal bonus. This is the same as districts. It appears to me MN cuts the season in half by only considering each teams first tournament. So I think the age bonus should be cut in half to be consistent. After having followed the qualifying points closely for a few years that’s actually my biggest complaint with the system - not the chairman win being an automatic bid.

Note - second year teams get 5 points. That one not being 2 or 3 doesn’t bug me as much because they can’t win rookie all star or rookie inspiration.

I got that off my chest for the year - now I can go back to waiting to see what happens at Great Northern and Heartland this weekend.

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#7

Interesting perspective. Some data:
2018 - 0/12 rookies and 1/7 second year teams made it to states (36/214 teams at states total)
2017 - 3/9 rookies and 1/18 second year teams made it to states (36/208 teams at states total)
2016 - 1/19 rookies and 2/11 second year teams made it to states (30/208 teams at states total)
2015 - 3/11 rookies and 3/14 second year teams made it to states (30/192 teams at states total)
2014 - 2/14 rookies and 7/28 second year teams made it to states (30/186 teams at states total)
2013 - 4/29 rookies and 0/22 second year teams made it to states (30/180 teams at states total)
2012 - 0/23 rookies and 6/27 second year teams made it to states (30/153 teams at states total)

That leads to the following graph:
image

So only in two years out of 7 has the percentage of rookies attending been greater than the overall percentage of teams attending. 4/7 for second year teams. Given such a small pool of rookie teams in those years (9 and 11), a difference of just 1 team has a huge impact on the percentage of teams represented. The same is true for second year teams - after 2014, those have all been under 20 total.

Personally, I think it’s great that we see so much diversity at states. Metro area teams, out-state teams, new teams, old teams, etc. Just attending states gives a team a lot of recognition in their school - as odd as it sounds here, many teams in MN value states over Champs. That’s because attending States gives them the same recognition other activities at the school gets (and winning gives them the same trophies everyone else gets!), while attending Champs is ultimately something the school and student body don’t understand as much. I think having a rookie team or two there can provide a huge boost to those programs, and help set them up for long-term success - we’ve seen that kind of affect from teams that make it to champs their rookie year, too!

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#8

FYI, several teams have decided (or been forced to by school administration) to skip Great Northern due to the blizzard coming in this evening. We are making sure those teams that miss have their “first event” appropriately adjusted so it correctly scores for North Star/10,000 Lakes/whatever instead of GNR. If you are one of those teams affected and notice anything with your score that doesn’t look right, please contact us using the email at the top of the official ranking sheet and we’ll get it fixed ASAP!

#9

Rankings as of week 3 are posted! If we did the cutoff today, we would be at 30 points, compared with 27 on the same week last year. I can’t wait to see how good the 102 teams that have yet to compete are going to do!

#10

This is scary… Can we add 10 more teams to the state tourney? /s

#11

Since the results are out I thought I would add some commentary. I was really surprised at the number of teams that hunted me down to ask how they looked for state at Great Northern. I guess the hype is getting around. (BTW - big shout out to 4506 - they seemed pretty jazzed about their first state bid. At 46 they are sure bet.)

For Week 4 we have 9 teams in Iowa including 1 rookie team.

For week 5 we have 34 teams at North Star (including 4 rookie teams)
31 teams at 10,000 Lakes present by the Medtronic Foundation (including 1 rookie team)
And 1 rookie team using Wisconsin.

For week 6 we have we have 6 teams at Seven Rivers (including 1 rookie team)

I only see 81 teams left to go but I am not always in the loop.

So let’s go through chairman’s situation first…
2169 is currently on the out but seems like strong contender at Wisconsin.
The strong contenders for chairmans at North Star all seem to be on the out.
It’s mixed bag at 10,000 Lake sponsored by the Medtronic Foundation with roughly half of the strong contenders on the out and half on the in.
I am not a chairmans’s expert but it seems like 2+ more MN chairmans winners are getting in that are not currently above 31.
That’s probably bad news for the two 30 point teams (3130 and 2511).

Let’s look at the robot points…
Iowa is a total crapshoot. There are good teams from all over the place and it’s just guessing who is going to get the points.
North Star is going to have 15 to 20 teams coming in as a second event that are strong contenders to play in elims. That doesn’t leave a lot room to qualify.
10K Lakes presented by Medtronic Foundation has more wildcard generators coming in than North Star but might be a bit more open for new teams to put on a strong first showing and qualify.
Seven Rivers continues to draw strong team from the region and will be tough to get out of.

So the cut off line might get above 31 this year but it’s not a sure thing.

#12

Iowa had a few solid performances.

When the official standings come out 7541 should be around 37, 3206 should be around 34, and 2957 should be around 36.

That means getting in with 30 is now out of play. The traditional line of 31 is also being significantly challenged.

#13

So eyeballing the performances from this weekend.

None of the results in Wisconsin effect the bubble area.

2220 is still going tomorrow as a second play at the Silicon Valley Regional. Whether they win chairman’s or not doesn’t effect the bubble since they currently have 40 points.

2883’s Chariman’s win at North Star moves them from 36 to an automatic bid so no real movement in the bubble area. 3926 will easily make it as a finalist captain. I think when the official standings come out 3122 will be at 31 points but behind 2549 and 6132 on the 5th tie breaker. 4663, 5278, 2989, 2129, 7858, 7273 will be close but shy of 31.

2500 earns Chairman’s at 10K Lakes presented by the Medtronic Foundation and the automatic bid with it. 3244 did the best of the first play teams in eliminations at 30 points.

That would leave the 36th place team as 2549 who currently sports a 23-4-1 record and a blue banner except…7850 rode a 5-4 record to 19th place at 10k. That’s 15 points, plus 8 for rookie all-star, and plus 10 for being a rookie for 33 total.

So I think when the official standings come out 5638 will be in 36th place with 32 points.

There are 6 first play teams including 1 rookie to play at the 7 Rivers Regional next weekend.

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#14

Cutting it close. That’s what I call precision engineering…

#15

2549 is a legitimate playoff contender at states. It would be a travesty if they don’t qualify. Similarly, 3130, 2987, 4198, 3244, and others are all fantastic teams that will be missed at states.

That said, it’s looking like states will have an extremely competitive set of teams. It’s going to be an awesome tournament!

#16

The week 5* rankings have been posted. For those interested in a behind-the-scenes look at the official generation of the rankings, when I ran it this morning the app DID let me know that there’s an on-going event of interest, and why we might want to wait until it’s finished!

image

*Maybe I should say “week 4.9” since 2220 hasn’t finished their second event yet? As @Whatever said though, winning Chairman’s won’t cause movement around the cutoff, and I’m sure there are some teams that finished up yesterday that want to see where they landed! The rankings will be updated this evening if needed.

#17

One point of clarification, since the question comes up every year. The event listed is the team’s first event. In some cases, teams win Chairman’s at their second event. In that case, we can have multiple teams with the same first event (Great Northern Regional, for example) that have all won Chairman’s and have an asterisk next to their team number. That’s not a mistake, and we don’t think they all won at the same event :slight_smile:

#18

If we end up in 37th place that would kinda suck but rn were more concerned with champs and getting ready for that. Question, if one of the teams in the top 36 is unable or unwilling to compete in the state competition, would the next highest ranked team be invited in their place?

#19

Yes. The bottom of page 3 of the MSHSL guidelines states:

Alternate Teams:

If, prior to the competition, any team is unable to participate, an alternate will replace that team. Teams must accept their invitation to the MSHSL Championship event within one week of final notification. If a qualifying team declines an invitation, the next highest qualifying team will be selected from the list of eligible teams. Alternate teams will have 48 hours to respond to an invitation.

However, in the history of the event (this is the 8th year!), we’ve never had a team decline and an alternate team receive an invitation. There’s a first time for everything, though!

#20

As I kind of expected knowing them, we’ve re-run the week 5 rankings and posted them. Congrats to 2220 for Chairman’s this year!

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#21

Thanks, the progression of events this weekend that kept us from securing our spot at state stung the core of our group the most. Thanks for the great alliances and quality competition we played.