NEforecast 2019: Week 6 Pine Tree

NEforecast: Pine Tree District Event, April 4 - April 6, 2019

The Blue Alliance: https://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2019melew
Webcast: https://twitch.tv/nefirst_blue
Tableau Link: https://public.tableau.com/shared/WXQXNSD9J?:display_count=yes
Tableau Link 2: https://public.tableau.com/shared/3YM2RG66T?:display_count=yes

Who is your favorite of this week’s Top Teams?

  • 5687, The Outliers
  • 133, B.E.R.T.
  • 1519, Mechanical Mayhem
  • 1768, RoboChiefs
  • 6329, The Bucks’ Wrath

0 voters

Almost to the end, New England folks! Week 6 is upon us, and we’ll start off our analysis of this week’s events with the Pine Tree District Event. Maine’s singular event returns to the Androscoggin Bank Colisee for the seventh time, and with all of the space and seating the Colisee has to offer, we’re happy to return for another year. As is typical of a Week 6 event, there are a lot of teams who are battling for the last District Points they need to secure a spot at WPI’s District Championship. Two teams (1519 and 1768) need to just show up to secure the points necessary, five teams (4041, 6329, 2523, 237, and 6161) need to duplicate their solid performances from earlier in the season, and others (4906, 6153, 2648, 4564, 4925, 663 and 3467) need to make quite the Hail Mary if they want to play with the greats.

Like Central Mass last weekend, Pine Tree has quite the star-studded upper tier of teams in attendance. We watched as Team 78 pulled off the first >3RP Average last week, and with a lucky match schedule, there are certainly teams at Pine Tree who could capture enough Rocket RPs and Docking RPs to duplicate this feat. We’ll also see rocket scoring be the deciding factor in almost all eliminations matches; with the number of teams who can quickly fill a null-paneled cargo ship, rockets will be more important than ever. Finally, we’ll also see a large number of teams attempting Hab 3 climbs, so fast cycle times will be the deciding factor between the good and the great.

We’ve added a fair amount of data-driven analysis to the end of this post as a precursor to our magnum opus: the New England Championship write up! As always, feedback is welcome, and we hope to see a good discussion in the comments!

Top Teams:

5687, The Outliers: The sheer domination from the Baxter Academy’s pride and joy is undeniable. The Outliers have won both of their district events this year, and with 9 blue banners over only 5 years of competing, Team 5687 is certainly one of New England’s elites. Their 2019 robot has a top-notch mechanism for any task; an over the top roller intake handles balls, a two-pronged hatch mechanism with lots of forgiving movement makes placement a breeze, and a speedy Hab 3 climber allows The Outliers to tower over the competition. They can do it all, and they’ll likely be doing it all to the finals of Pine Tree.

133, B.E.R.T.: We think the argument can be made that Team 133 builds the best simple robots, period. Using the KOP Chassis and a basic elevator, B.E.R.T. has outfitted themselves with one of the most effective rocket-oriented hatch mechanisms in New England, and their cargo intake can move more balls than almost any other team. As the team we deem most likely to solo a rocket and still end up on Hab 3, we’ll be watching all of their matches as they chase their second blue banner finish of the season.

1519, Mechanical Mayhem: The beast is awakening from a five-week slumber, and they’re hungry for another win! Maybe slumber isn’t the right word; although they’ve been out of the limelight for a little while, they’ve been hammering away on some important upgrades that will allow them to maintain their top-tier status. Team 1519 has ditched the intake we saw at GSD in favor of a top roller and pinch bar, and their new hatch mechanism is leagues above their previous version. Mechanical Mayhem has their eyes set on soloing rockets, so they could easily add to their stack of Pine Tree victories.

1768, RoboChiefs: When the finals rolled around at North Shore, the RoboChiefs flipped a switch and were on a roll! Their slip-sliding techniques allowed them to fly back and forth between their loading station and rocket, and they were putting up some pretty impressive cycle numbers. With Pine Tree being their third play (as with many of these Top Teams), Team 1768 is looking to practice their impressive offense and lock down their Hab 3 climb for the NEDCMP. We’ll be seeing them deep into eliminations on Saturday for sure.

6329, The Bucks’ Wrath: It’s only a matter of time until Team 6329’s dominant on-field performances net them a spot in the winner’s circle. Their robot features some of the best auto-alignment we’ve seen in New England, allowing their simple velcro system to place hatches with lightning speed. Some cargo intake upgrades, as well as a new Hab 2 climb, makes The Bucks’ Wrath one of the most well-rounded alliance partners around, so they’ll be snapped up early in the alliance selection process!

Honorable Mentions:

172, Northern Force: Although an early out at Central Mass has put Team 172 on the scary-edge of qualifying for the NEDCMP, they’re still going to Pine Tree to lay down the Northern law. A simple hatch mechanism, ball intake and elevator allows Northern Force to score anywhere and assist in rocket building, and the ability to Hab 2 or Hab 3 climb will make them a valuable part of any alliance.

4041, Iron Tigers: When it comes to consistent cyclers, 4041 is a prime example. While their cycle times may not be as fast as the Top Teams, they’re almost guaranteed to move 5 or 6 game pieces each match, which will certainly put a dent in any cargo ship or rocket you want filled. The Iron Tigers will also gladly pounce onto the Hab 3 platform to end each match, so they’re a surefire way to put points up on the board.

1729, Team Inconceivable!: One of the late additions to the Pine Tree roster, Team 1729 is looking to have a good time and chase after the blue banner they almost nabbed in Southern NH. They’re another do-all team who can score 5 to 6 game pieces a match, and with their Hab 3 climb gaining consistency at each event, Pine Tree will afford the Inconceivable squad time to get their robot in excellent shape for NEDCMP.

4906, The Collective: If you’re looking for a team to fill the cargo ship, The Collective is likely your best bet. Their hatch mechanism is certainly noteworthy, but the real value of Team 4906 lies in the extra-wide cargo intake that makes scoring cargo so easy. If they can smooth out their driving and steel their focus on the cargo ship, they’ll be the perfect robot to round out any rocket-oriented alliance, and their consistent Hab 2 climb is a fun bonus.

Data-Based Analysis:
Using cOPR from Caleb Sykes’ Scouting Database, we can get a pretty good idea of what each team likes to do most.

Hatch Panels Placed on Rocket Ship:

  1. 133, B.E.R.T (2.5 on L2/L3, 4.34 Total)
  2. 5687, The Outliers (2.21 on L2/L3, 3.65 Total)
  3. 1768, The RoboChiefs (1.17 on L2/L3, 3.02 Total)
  4. 237, Black Magic Robotics (1.85 on L2/L3, 2.56 Total)
  5. 6329, The Bucks’ Wrath (2.05 on L2/L3, 2.35 Total)

Hatch Panels Placed on Cargo Ship:

  1. 4564, Orange Chaos (1.61)
  2. 1768, The RoboChiefs (1.46)
  3. 5687, The Outliers (1.42)
  4. 4055, NRG (1.38)
  5. 4041, Iron Tigers (1.35)

Cargo Balls Scored in Rocket Ship:

  1. 133, B.E.R.T. (1.69 in L2/L3, 3.36 Total)
  2. 5687, The Outliers (1.18 in L2/L3, 2.46 Total)
  3. 6329, The Bucks’ Wrath (1.42 in L2/L3, 1.59 Total)
  4. 1768, The RoboChiefs (0.29 in L2/L3, 1.53 Total)
  5. 237, Black Magic Robotics (0.93 in L2/L3, 1.33 Total)

Cargo Balls Scored in Cargo Ship:

  1. 1519, Mechanical Mayhem (3.21)
  2. 4906, The Collective (3.20)
  3. 1729, Team Inconceivable! (2.86)
  4. 4564, Orange Chaos (2.86)
  5. 4041, Iron Tigers (2.51)

Climbing Onto Habitat 3:

  1. 1519, Mechanical Mayhem (94% Success Rate)
  2. 133, B.E.R.T. (90% Success Rate)
  3. 4041, Iron Tigers (88% Success Rate)
  4. 5687, The Outliers (83% Success Rate)
  5. 172, Northern Force (60% Success Rate)

As always, thanks for reading!

7 Likes

So in the entirety of Granite State 4564 never placed more than 2 panels on the cargo ship, so I don’t know how the piece of data exists. Thank you for linking all this data, it really adds an empirical feel to do the prediction.

1 Like

You’re correct, the reported values are points scored and not actual hatch panels scored. While the rankings are correct, we’ll divide the values by 2 to accurately show the number of panels scored.

Sorry for the confusion, nothing new ever goes smoothly!

3 Likes

Thank you for the forecast! Pine Tree is my favorite district event of the year.

2 Likes

Thanks for the clarification, reading comprehension has never been a strong suit of mine.

Can’t wait for this weekend!

3467’s been working hard everyday since GSD trying to improve our machine to play with the best of Maine. We haven’t made the trip up since the first/last year it was a regional so we are pumped to finally make it back up to Lewiston!

Looking forward to an amazing weekend!

237 is looking forward to backing up those rocket numbers with another good performance! As always the field at Pine Tree is going to be strong and we’re looking to keep up with the best! I honestly think if the schedule comes out right, we could see a few matches with both alliances finishing rockets and climbing! It’ll be a great way to go into the District Championship for everyone!

Yes, if I remember correctly, in 2013 you came to Pine Tree with a new-and-improved tower climber (after GSR) and did very well.

Are you folks still writing the Hartford forecast?

Yes we are, it should be finished by ~7:00p tonight!

RIP

It was posted at 7:55… The CT writers were busy prepping their own robots for Hartford!

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