Ok all you math and spreadsheet brainiacs -Covid-19 mission

FIRST General Forum
1

Read a few news items yesterday that mentioned a study just started in France looking at correlations possibly between tobacco use and covid-19 cases, vs hospitalizations vs deaths throughout the world.

They have noticed that (while nobody anywhere suggests that tobacco use throughout the world, anywhere, at anytime, and for any reason including a killer virus should be looked at as a reason to increase the usage), something in tobacco usage worldwide seems to maybe have a direct correlation to lessening the hospitalizations / death rates / and/or per capita case rates.

Whether it is Nicotine (as the French study may suggest), or some other gas, product, or something else in tobacco or some other by product of tobacco smoke or usage, or something concerning the condition of smokers lungs that may be hindering the effects of the virus taking hold in smokers, and there may be a direct correlation to lower per capita case and death rates in higher smoking countries per capita.

The US (and many other developed nations throughout the world, for many years, has seen a major reduction of tobacco usage (a great thing btw), and yet has remained a high producer of tobacco products, exporting the death product to many poorer nations worldwide), as we all know for many years.

The correlation seen in a few areas between low hospitalizations in France, China, and even The highest infection hot spot of NY, NY, is a low incidence of actual tobacco users reportedly hospitalized or dying from covid-19 infections.

It may on the surface, though they thought smokers or tobacco users would be the first to suffer from covid-19, there may be just the opposite happening.

Why, and what is causing it they do not yet know. France has entered a study, to check the effects of having front line medical heroes wear nicotine patches to see if nicotine hinders or stops, or has any affect on medical workers at all contracting covid-19 infections. (But, it could be something other than nicotine, and could be some other reason there could be a correlation.) They may not even find out by using nicotine patches on non-smoking health workers, due to differences between how smokers vs patch wearers receive the nicotine dosages…controlled slow dosage vs spike dosages in a regular smoker.

Your mission (should you accept it), you math and spreadsheet brainiacs, is to take the Worldometer.com data and combine or add to it another column or any other way you feel fit, the data from Wikipedia (or any other valid sources you can find out there), the data from List of Countries by cigarette consumption per capita.

If you were to just look through the 2 lists a bit, you will easily see bottom up or top down, there would at a cursory glance seem to be some correlation between the per capita incidence of highest smoking/tobacco use countries and least cases/deaths per capita, and lowest smoking/tobacco use countries seeing higher case counts, hospitalizations and death rates.

Compiling the raw data at this point is the mission to show that there may be a scientific correlation and real data pointing to a need for a real study here in the US to begin immediately…Or even a set of real investigation and immediate studies!

The 2 website addresses:

Worldometer: Countries
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Wikipedia: List of Countries by cigarette consumption per capita
List_of_countries_by_cigarette_consumption_per_capita

Use the 2016 rankings list of countries at the bottom unless you can find a reliable later year rankings list or more updated info elsewhere. That list has Andora as the top tobacco using nation listed in the number 1 spot at 6,398.3 per year per person 2016 (745 covid-19 cases currently with 42 deaths), Brunei in 181 per capita 9.7-2016 (138 cases currently with death)…The US with 1/3rd of the covid-19 cases currently 1,079,894 with 62,672 deaths, was 68th in 2016 at 1,016.6 per capita and reducing each year since.

Of course there will be outliers noticed depending on the advance of the pandemic, but there may be seen some direct correlation in the data.

What we need at this time is to correlate the data, then if the data bears out as it would appear with the quick look it just may. Then convincing the powers that be to invest in a very intensive group of studies and investigation immediately as to why the data shows a correlation, and invest in finding out what that correlation is now, so we can see if even before (short of everyone picking up a really bad habit), a vaccine is produced, tested, and widely distributed there is something that can help us defeat the nasty virus.

Tobacco usage also in our own country of the US is lower in the cities, higher in the rural areas, yet New York City has seen higher case rates, higher hospitalization rates and death rates, as has many other major US cities…Yet the higher tobacco using rural areas with less health care and hospitals has seen fewer case, hospitalization and death rates per capita. (The data suggests there is something there, just not what the something is!)

Now, please use your collective time and energy to help prove there is…Data is needed. And it is needed yesterday. We fought a great battle for years now to gain some of the lowest tobacco usage rates in the developed world, and are now fighting a battle against a killer virus and are losing the fight. Go find out why.

2

Of course, once the data is compiled, and if it shows a correlation (take italy and Greece as a fine set of examples - Italy and Greece are located very close to 1 another geographically, and geopolitically, yet Greece is 12th on the list of tobacco users per capita with 2,591 covid-19 cases / 140 deaths / 1,077/38 cases vs deaths per 1 mil population; Italy is 40th on the list of tobacco users per capita with 205,463 covid-19 cases / 27,967 deaths / 3,398 / 463 deaths per mil. Population).

Then, a multitude of investigations would still need to take place (from a simple study on Nicotine, using frontline, no-smoking heath care workers in a non-flat lined covid-19 country where covid-19 is on the rise…that would be willing to risk nicotine addiction via patch…Say 100, workers for month, and if 1 got sick, but 99 did not, subtract the ppe fully from the 99 for 1 to 3 weeks, no increase in illness or infections then nicotine would definitely be the culprit that wards off infection. 50 get sick the study is over.

At the same time, another study could begin by contacting and asking Dr.'s to submit patient contact info of living US patients who show heavy tar in the lungs from past completed chest x-rays, have researchers conduct a simple telephone survey of those patients to determine how many or few have contracted covid-19 so far and location and level of infection rate, hospitalizations, and deaths. (New York City said 5.3 percent of all hospitalized admitted to being smokers), it was a suprisingly low rate, as was France and China).

Then, the hard part. As there are over 4,000 known chemicals and chemical compounds (both hazardous and benign), knowingly found in cigarette smoke, some extremely harmful, and many carcinogenic, and even non-carcinogenic but highly addictive like nicotine, but it could be also a lesser known and benign chemical or chemical compound that may possibly interfere with the covid-19 virus.

Not like the research on what cig. smoke contains has not already been conducted for literally years. Then do we first study the least harmful ones first?..Adding supplements of least harmful to a different front line health working volunteers? Work up to the most harmful in lowest dosages possible.

4,000 different chemicals and compounds, to narrow it down may take some real time and effort.

3

Even if you do not believe the raw numbers out of China, and most do not, there are huge differences between how The US and China approached the issues of stopping or handling the covid-19 virus and our direct responses to the pandemic, yet there are also huge differences in populations, and tobacco usages between us, yet nearly the same amount of hospitalization rates of smokers (around 5.3 percent of known covid-19 infected people so far).

China 1.4 Billion plus population /82,862 cases /4,633 deaths. Per million pop. 58 / 3. Rank 14th in cigarette use per capita 2,043.0 (very high rate annually 2016), and has risen at a dramatic rate since.

US 329 Million plus population/1,079,894 cases/62,672 deaths. Per million pop. 3,262 /189. Rank 68th in cigarette use per capita 1,016.6 (Very low in comparison annual rate, though mid range in 181 countries total), in 2016 and has dropped since.

Add into the equation Russia 144. Million pop. 2018
106,498 cases / 1,073 deaths. Per Mil. Pop. 730 / 7. Rank 9th in cigarette usage per capita 2,295.0 (Very high tobacco usage in 2016 and rising.)

Spain 39th in tobacco usage.
France is 62nd. , UK 79th., Germany 32nd., Switzerland is 41st., Then go look at 171st Guatemela who is at the very beginning of their pandemic venture 585 cases /16 deaths (very low tobacco usage but very high death count vs cases of covid-19). India is shocked that the spread and death rate is so far very low, sitting 176th in tobacco usage per capita, very high compact population densitiy, just started their pandemic venture, 34,780 / 1,151 deaths. 25 /0.8 per million pop., all things still need to be adjusted to population/ density/ annual tob. usage/ point of pandemic start in the nation of course and present course pre-peak/peak/down slope of course. And response to the pandemic, methods of handling the pandemic of course, and type of health care available.

See a correlation there anywhere? The higher up the list in usage of tobacco, the fewer cases and death rates, if other things are equal.

4

Are you trying to tell us to smoke?

5

My hypothesis is that the susceptibility to tobacco and Covid-19 are positively correlated, and that in smoking populations, many of those most likely to die of Covid-19 are already dead.

6

Absolutely NOT! (Never, nuh uh…No way, No how) Telling you there just appears to be some correlation only. Asking you to help do the math, and help bring the statistics together to prove or disprove a far flung theory. If the stats prove there is even a possible correlation, then we need to immediately urge the studies required to take place and urge the powers that be to get those studies going NOW!

7

That could also be a possibility too GeeTwo, but with only a 5.3 percent hospitalization rate in NY, NY, China, Spain, and France across the board, that does not seem likely.

8

I am not a spreadsheet expert, but I have witnessed many in this community (CD, FIRST, FRC), do amazing things in fast order in bring forth tons of amazing data to the forefront over the years. Please take some time and do so here and now if you can.

If the data shows a direct correlation, lets go find out what that correlation is.

Lets say it does; Lets say the investigation(s) are difficult and many studies need to be conducted, much work needs to happen at a very fast pace.

Like i said (cigarette smoke is known to contain over 4,000 chemicals and chemical compounds). Not all of those, though all are known, can be easily studied directly as pertains to the human body, many are harmful and many are even carcinogenic, some are neither, but highly addictive. But, some are also benign and easy to study and the risk factors are lower.

Ok, if the data shows a correlation, and it is an effect, take tar in lungs…Not easy, nor is it a solution to say, ok everyone take up smoking, that would be even more dangerous than covid-19 of course.

Or, Nicotine, not a very good solution either, even if you could have many patch themselves with nicotine patches temporarily, it is a highly addictive substance, and would/could lead many to end up smoking later, which could lead to a solution worse than the virus of course. But, what if a lower dosage was all that was necessary to interrupt the virus taking hold. Sure many adults could risk it, but we could never risk it with children.
We already know carbon monoxide is a killer, but with over 4,000 chemicals and chemical compounds in there, it is possible there is a lower risk avenue.

You just don’t know, what you don’t know, until you know it! Nobody has successfully ever created a carona virus vaccine in the history of the world, yet currently many are attempting to do so at this very moment.

See the NY Times Article or search “French Nicotine Study.” Also, in addition to those 4,000 known substances, American cigarette mfg. Add up to 599 other ingredients.

9

I had a bit of extra time:
image
image
image

There are slight positive slopes for the cases and deaths per capita but I’d hardly say these are unequivocal. The deaths per case graph is basically as uncorrelated as you can get. Obviously these are only very coarse numbers with all kinds of other interfering factors mixed in. Hopefully there are actual clinical studies that can actually prove or disprove any correlation.

Sources:

10

Now, that is data, TY ArlMB! True, there are a ton of variables, but French researchers are taking a shot in the dark with a single substance, Nicotine only.

They see an 80% fewer covid-19 hospitalization rate between smokers and non-smokers (same gender, ages), hospitalized and death rate, as have they found in other countries. That was both a shocking and unexpected result, and just screams for further investigation, and is too much to ignore offhand.

11

This topic was automatically closed 365 days after the last reply. New replies are no longer allowed.