OPR after Week Five Events

we’re in the same boat. 4th.

True. Assuming that nothing changes from previous form, the OPR and CCWM can be very good indicators of probable results. However, there is an implicit error function on the numbers (otherwise, they would be 100% in the absence of meaningful changes). In addition, any team that knows they are on the short end of the statistics and does not try for a change in their favor is doing themselves a disservice.

I suppose that what I am trying to lead to is that the OPR and CCWM numbers are very useful tools (we use them a lot), but they only indicate based on the assumption that nothing will change from previous matches.

So I was just toying with this spreadsheet out of interest.

I added a field to the OPR results page for each team’s state/province, and filtered it based on that field, because I wanted to support my intuitive feeling that Ontario’s second tier is much stronger because of the influence of 1114 and 2056.

Calculating average OPR’s for different regions gives me the following results:

Avg Max OPR FIRST-Wide: 16.3

Avg Max OPR in Ontario: 23.3
Avg Max OPR in Michigan: 22.8
Avg Max OPR in Ontario (not including 1114 and 2056): 21.1
Avg Max OPR in New Jersey: 18.8
Avg Max OPR in Ohio: 18.6
Avg Max OPR in Pennsylvania: 18.5
Avg Max OPR in Indiana: 17.4
Avg Max OPR in New York: 16.8
Avg Max OPR in Quebec: 16.7
Avg Max OPR in Massachusetts: 16.1
Avg Max OPR in New Hampshire: 14.0
Avg Max OPR in California: 14.0
Avg Max OPR in Texas: 13.8
Avg Max OPR in Minnesota: 13.0

Thanks for posting this information - I have fun with it. Also… congratulations on your team’s win over the weekend.

(Edited for brevity)

What about Delaware? 27.8 Avg Max OPR. Of course, it’s not as though we have enough teams to form a full alliance, much less a full match, but still…

Two data points does not a trend make :stuck_out_tongue:

True enough… but it’s good enough for a little bit of bragging… at least until Iowa, Brazil (RS), and Nevada get in on the act.

Of the states/provinces/areas that can field their own matches, Mississippi, Hawaii, and Ontario are 1-2-3.

sigh One day, maybe we’ll grow up to be a bigger state…

Actually, isn’t the definition of a trend the point at which you can draw a line through two points? Not only is it a trend, but it has 100% correlation. :stuck_out_tongue:

Trend implies some sort of change over time, so really none of them are trends. They’re all just statistical distributions.

Field their own matches with teams that have played so far in 2013. HI has more than 6 teams, just only 6 of them play OUTSIDE of HI, since the Hawaii Regional hasn’t happened yet.

And of those 3, only Ontario has had enough to hold a regional.

Texas and Minnesota both have a HUGE number of teams - most of which are very young. This could provide an explanation for the low scores.

The other interesting thing, is how low CA is ranked by this metric. Below the FIRST-wide average, and yet CA is seen as one of the stronger regions.

I think this is an artifact of the sheer number of CA teams. Yes, they have 254, 330, 973, and more, but there are just so many of the weaker teams in CA that it skews their average.

Sorry, I’m new to this page and thought it very interesting. I’m not sure how to open the reports? *wince

I think this pairs with the Texas/Minnesota thing. I’m interested to see if these regions will see an increase in strength with the move to districts (all. 3 regions are candidates) and the lengthened competition season and multiple regionals.

I hope we see more district models happening. I want to see a district model in Canada. An awfully large (and growing!) portion of Canadian teams have been forking out huge cash to compete in 2 or 3 regionals at $4k/pop.

Which reports are you referring to? The XLS attachments in this thread, or Ed Law’s XLSM scouting database whitepaper?

Well, considering that I don’t even know the difference right now…both? XD

Do you have Microsoft Excel installed?

If so, what version is it?

If not, what OS are you using?

Oh, I know how to download a file and use Excel. I just don’t know which one to download out of the many, many files on his link.

You can use the filenames and dates to find the version you want…the latest at the moment, including week 5 results, is Team 2834 2013_Scouting_Database v5.0. The others are simply from past weeks and past years.