I am calling this metric OPR plus State Points, or OPS. I started with the RoboZone rankings by Jim Zondag and Dan Kimura, aggregated those two expert lists, and resorted based on OPS, which is the sum of district points earned before DCMP and the team’s average OPR. Here is my Michigan Top 25 list as of Week 5:
The OPS metric is not perfect. For example, I think it under-rates Thunderchickens and Tech Vikes*. However, I think it will predict DCMP / CMP performance more accurately than either district points or OPR alone. District points include awards, which I think are a realistic reflection of a team’s potential for leadership and communication contribution to alliance success.
I have asterisks in the lines for Rush, Goon Squad, and Norsemen. These teams each have one more FiM event to play in Week 6. I added 50 district points to their present totals, anticipating each team will make the finals at their second event.
Please comment and critique this method of ranking.
*2771 Code Red is also omitted, because they are not on Dan or Jim’s ranking lists (yet), having played their first FiM event in Week 5. I expect they will appear, probably pretty high up, when rankings are recalculated before DCMP.
This is a unique idea, kinda cool. You mentioned 2771 is not on the list - they’re a monster shooter and with the high score of the week will no doubt be up there. You’ll likely see 3536 on Jim and/or Dan’s lists this coming week as well - Howell was their first event. They’re a shooter that can hang with the rest of the teams up there and are rather tough to defend against since they line up pretty fast.
I agree completely re: 2771. They made of lot of high goals at East Kentwood – 2nd most in the field by our scouts’ count. They also missed a larger percentage compared with other top shooting teams there, probably due to their shooter’s ~30 inch gravity feed. I expect that percentage to improve next week and thereafter, as their drive team gets more comfortable with the robot.
Thanks for the heads-up on 3536. Your perspective on them as a finals opponent is very valuable.
As a team that played against 2771, I’m curious how you feel they do against defense? With the gravity feed it seems it would be easy to bump them as it’s dropping and throw off the aim or even just sit in front of them with a reasonably tall robot and block since they shoot low.
They ran as quick as 11 second cycle times when being fed a ball perfectly by their human player, but I imagine ball defense can easily prevent this. They managed to put up 8 high goals - has anyone else in MI done this?
My team never got the opportunity to play against 2771 at East Kentwood, although we did get to play with them as part of one extremely stacked qualification alliance (Q64). Our side combined for 18 high goals in that one, against no defense to speak of – result 160-69. Those three teams (3620, 3357, 2771) finished 1-2-3 in qualifying OPR.
I did observe that 2771’s gravity fed shot can be disrupted by well-timed love taps. However, only a few defenders played that smart against them. As you saw, they shoot a lot of high goals when fed by fast cycling partners against light defense. Eight is the most I saw them put in during a single match. My own team did that also (Q56 if I recall correctly). I think a few others have made eight, but not in Michigan that I can recall seeing. Did your team or 33 get that high this past weekend?
I think we will see an alliance combine for 20 high goals before Einstein. I hope to see that at MSC.
When we played against 2771 at Walker Warren in IN, 3180 caused them to miss all of their high goal shots while defending in match 1. You can see that 3180 waited for the ball to visually drop before hitting them. The ball also takes some time to fire when it is in the shooter. When left undefended they rarely missed.
What a crazy match-up that was. Even with defense, we weren’t sure we could outscore you all. Looked like fun, but I kinda wish we were on your side.
I think defense did prove to be effective in the Semifinals at Kentwood. Just not quite effective enough, I guess. Shout-out to 3357, 2771, and 4409 on the win. Well earned.
*4409, not 4819, on the win. And I believe COMETS put up 8 high goals in Quarters 3 match 1 (the world record match). The total for our alliance was 20 balls, with 1 of them being scored in auton.
4967 made 8 high goals at Kentwood in our 3rd semi-final match against 2771 and 3357. http://youtu.be/J4_GpIE3iTM
In reality, we actually had time for one more, but we were running out of time and didn’t realize the score was so close (4 points), and ended up loosing on foul points.
And Calvin, your team’s alliance gave us more trouble in the semis than we had in the finals (in my opinion). 4967 has a fantastic robot this year. I can’t wait to see it again at States.
Thanks for the note, Olivia. We had a blast regardless of the turnout. Close matches, indeed! You’ve got a fantastic robot, very unique! I’m looking forward to States as well, assuming we make it in. (Honestly don’t know - but I believe we will!)
We didn’t go undefended until the finals, so we really didn’t get the practice of cycling like you west side folks, based on the scores in Troy I’d say 33 didn’t even go defense free there, but I haven’t watched any video of it. We prefer the batter shot which may be a little slower to get to. I was watching the opposing alliance the entirety of playoffs - I honestly have no idea what each robot on our alliance scored. I was specifically watching how they were feeding balls and their patterns for crossing defenses. Our last match the alliance put up 12 high goals total, so I assume it was 6 for us and 6 for 2834, but it could have been 5 and 7 to either one of us.
86 points! Your team is in, no doubt at all. I expect you’ll be a force to reckon with there, as you have been at two events already.
Thanks for pointing out the 8 high goals by 3357. I was so gobsmacked by the furious overall scoring pace in that match that I was not counting for individual robots. Reviewing the video now I see 9 high goals by 2771 (one in auton, eight in teleop), and another 8 high goals by 3357 in teleop. Plus three low goals by 4409. No wonder the score is a record!
As mentioned a few times earlier in this thread, we should look for Code Red to feature prominently in the RoboZone rankings next weekend.
At West Michigan match74 team 107 had 10 shots, 1 in auto in the goal out the side ( I think these should be worth 20 pts ,joking !) 3 more in 1 hole out of the other and 7 made. After seeing this past weekend I think 20 high goals at MSC will happen. Also, many of the good shooters will get better and the addition of hanging by these teams will also raise the scores. It will come down to putting the right combination of bots together. I think a low bar cycling robot that mainly plays on left 1/3 on field, combined with good front shooter that is good at defenses playing the middle 3rd and a fast defense killer that can also score if need but mainly keep the defenders off of the shooter and the ability to hang would very tough to beat.
I think this is a defect in the field design, that should be corrected. Like the correction made in 2014 when high goals were bouncing back out during Week 1 events.
I think we will see several alliances working this game plan at MSC.
I like the concept of the OPS, since neither FiM (district points) score or OPR paints a complete picture (not that any system does).
Every year before MSC and CMP, I come up with my own rating system (WPR = Wayne’s Power Rating). The formula is slightly different every year, depending on the game. I normally include just the draft and playoff components of the district score, omit award points, and replace qualification match points with OPR. I normalize and round off the values to yield a final ranking score between 1-10. I think you are kidding yourself if you get beyond 1 or 2 significant digits.
Regarding 2771 and defense - defense will not cause them to lose control of the ball during the “drop”. You can’t see it on video, but the drop path is protected with a fish line “safety net” that guides the ball into the shooter.
