paper: Match Predictions & Strategy for Success - Strength of Schedule

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strategy
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#1

This white paper is a list of resource links regarding Strength of Schedule analysis, Match Outcome Predictions, and Strategy. This for your convenience to easily find data on OPR values, Match Results, and ideas on strategy. Each of these resources will lead you further down rabbit holes in the land of statistics trying to forecast the future of FIRST Competitions.

Match Predictions & Strategy for Success - Strength of Schedule
by: ThunderChief

The term “Strength of Schedule” is a concept that tries to determine for each team, that given a specific schedule of partners and opponents, whether it is “lucky” or “unlucky”. Lucky means on the average, your partners are strong, meaning they are predicted to score higher than average and your opponents are weak and will likely not score very high.

To Pick or Be Picked; that is the question. No matter how good or bad your team is in the Qualifying Matches, your ultimate success is determined in the Elimination Tournament. The Official Match Schedule can be lucky or unlucky for each team, but the strategy you decide based on that can prove critical in overcoming a tough schedule or taking advantage of an easy schedule. I will cover the concept of determining your “Strength of Schedule” and how it can aid in developing both your match strategy and your picking strategy. I will give examples and stories from my 17 FIRST seasons including 12 World Championship experiences. Links to Internet resources will be given.

Predictions Strategy SOS References.docx (16.3 KB)

#2

This sounds like a fascinating talk. Will it be recorded? Or slides posted?