paper: OPR Match Predicter

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OPR Match Predicter
by: kendall

Based on a team’s OPR and match schedule, will predict the ranking of that team after the qualification matches.

Because as my team mates say, I have no life, I made an Excel spreadsheet that predicts a team’s ranking based on their OPR and match schedule. It is currently set up for the Galileo division, although with some fiddling it could be used for any division. I also have a column to enter in the actual match scores, so the estimated outcomes will become more accurate as the tournament goes on.

I learned everything that I know about Excel last night, so forgive me if some things are awkwardly done or calculated.

Galileo Expected Outcomes.xlsx (253 KB)

Please forgive the spelling error; Chrome’s spell checker lied to me.

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So I’ve been comparing the predicted results with the actual results of today’s matches in the Galileo division. I’ve determined that the most accurate OPR for a team is the one from the tournament where the team got the highest OPR. For these OPRs, I got a 27% error in predicting match scores and a 22% error in predicting the winner of a match. For normal (average) OPRs, I got errors of 35% and 25% and for 1114’s normalized OPRs I got errors of 39% and 30%.

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