paper: OPR Match Predicter

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OPR Match Predicter
by: kendall

Based on a team’s OPR and match schedule, will predict the ranking of that team after the qualification matches.

Because as my team mates say, I have no life, I made an Excel spreadsheet that predicts a team’s ranking based on their OPR and match schedule. It is currently set up for the Galileo division, although with some fiddling it could be used for any division. I also have a column to enter in the actual match scores, so the estimated outcomes will become more accurate as the tournament goes on.

I learned everything that I know about Excel last night, so forgive me if some things are awkwardly done or calculated.

Galileo Expected Outcomes.xlsx (253 KB)

Please forgive the spelling error; Chrome’s spell checker lied to me.

So I’ve been comparing the predicted results with the actual results of today’s matches in the Galileo division. I’ve determined that the most accurate OPR for a team is the one from the tournament where the team got the highest OPR. For these OPRs, I got a 27% error in predicting match scores and a 22% error in predicting the winner of a match. For normal (average) OPRs, I got errors of 35% and 25% and for 1114’s normalized OPRs I got errors of 39% and 30%.