paper: Win Rate Data

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Win Rate Data
by: BrennanB

Data pulled from all available TBA info, win rate analysis/sums

-Includes win/loss/tie sums over lifetime
-Win rates included
-Separated tabs per district.

Win Rate 2018.xlsx (12.1 MB)

2 Likes

Some fun data based on win/loss/ties and win rates.

Some highlights featuring active teams only:

Top 25 Lifetime win rates:

Team	Wins	Ties	Losses	Win%
2056	738	8	145	83.28%
254	810	5	193	80.61%
1678	635	8	156	79.97%
1114	872	12	220	79.53%
4613	178	2	50	77.83%
1986	487	4	138	77.74%
987	575	5	170	77.00%
6907	20	0	6	76.92%
118	846	11	253	76.71%
5172	166	3	50	76.48%
1574	293	21	89	75.31%
330	617	14	206	74.55%
67	950	18	334	73.66%
2481	328	12	115	73.41%
1519	545	16	193	73.34%
148	689	10	251	73.05%
4488	285	2	107	72.59%
971	542	10	202	72.55%
469	805	13	306	72.20%
2122	445	11	169	72.08%
195	731	13	282	71.88%
16	587	12	230	71.53%
5883	45	0	18	71.43%
7021	30	0	12	71.43%

Top 25 Lifetime matches played:

67		1302
33		1276
217		1204
27		1140
469		1124
118		1110
1114		1104
68		1043
503		1039
195		1026
125		1012
494		1010
254		1008
48		986
245		968
141		966
910		954
148		950
230		945
70		925
25		914
624		907
107		902
341		899
1241		897

Top 25 2018 only:

254
1323
2056
1678
4539
2481
195
118
3310
2767
148
2590
1538
340
842
225
3357
217
5883
1796
1325
2910
1241
25
3478

Top 25 ONT lifetime:

2056	738	8	145	83.28%
1114	872	12	220	79.53%
610	487	11	209	69.66%
1241	581	21	295	65.94%
5406	178	5	94	65.16%
3683	251	7	133	65.09%
4946	145	1	89	61.91%
4976	147	5	91	61.52%
4039	280	7	175	61.36%
188	411	10	259	61.18%
1310	315	6	201	60.92%
4917	176	1	114	60.65%
2708	61	2	40	60.19%
4678	187	5	123	60.16%
4476	152	6	105	58.94%
4001	161	2	112	58.91%
1360	96	6	67	58.58%
2852	191	9	139	57.67%
1305	394	9	290	57.50%
6875	38	3	28	57.25%
1285	180	8	136	56.79%
1325	284	14	224	55.75%
6110	53	1	43	55.15%
2706	75	0	61	55.15%
2013	275	7	224	55.04%

Amazingly 2056 has been in the top 25 teams in the world win terms of in rate every single year of their existence.

This is awesome. Where did you get your data from?

Also this was pretty surprising.

All from TBA. This includes off season events.

No wonder we are up there. We’ve played over 100 matches the last couple of seasons, about 40% being in off-season.

Time for a 2019 update, and some fun stats. Once again this includes off season event data.

Here is a CSV of the complete data set.

NEW FRC 2019 Win Data.csv (3.3 MB)

Highest win rate (Active teams only)

Rank Team Number Lifetime Wins Lifetime Losses Lifetime Ties Lifetime Win Rate Lifetime Total Matches
1 2056 827 157 8 84.04% 992
2 254 882 195 5 81.89% 1082
3 1114 950 226 13 80.78% 1189
4 1678 746 183 8 80.30% 937
5 5172 224 64 3 77.78% 291
6 987 612 178 5 77.47% 795
7 1986 554 166 4 76.94% 724
8 118 925 281 11 76.70% 1217
9 330 654 208 13 75.87% 875
10 4613 226 75 3 75.08% 304
11 148 776 261 9 74.83% 1046
12 1574 341 115 22 74.78% 478
13 67 989 345 15 74.14% 1349
14 4414 37 13 0 74.00% 50
15 5883 91 32 1 73.98% 124
16 7498 34 12 3 73.91% 49
17 7521 45 16 1 73.77% 62
18 971 604 217 10 73.57% 831
19 2481 370 133 11 73.56% 514
20 6672 84 31 1 73.04% 116
21 1519 608 227 17 72.81% 852
22 7447 16 6 1 72.73% 23
23 195 825 311 16 72.62% 1152
24 359 663 254 6 72.30% 923
25 2122 506 197 11 71.98% 714

Sorted by total number of matches.

Rank Team Number Lifetime Total Matches
1 33 1429
2 67 1349
3 217 1297
4 27 1246
5 118 1217
6 1114 1189
7 469 1158
8 503 1156
9 195 1152
10 125 1114
11 494 1092
12 245 1084
13 254 1082
14 68 1071
15 48 1070
16 148 1046
17 2337 1032
18 910 1032
19 230 1022
20 1241 1017
21 141 1011
22 624 1008
23 548 1008
24 2056 992
25 1218 986

2019 Win rate, 2056 continues their streak of being top 25 on win rate for every year of the team’s existence.

Rank Team Number 2019 Win Rate
1 1114 94.29%
2 254 92.73%
3 2056 91.43%
4 364 91.30%
5 1323 91.07%
6 330 87.23%
7 2910 87.06%
8 3310 87.01%
9 1678 86.11%
10 359 86.08%
11 3707 85.90%
12 973 85.71%
13 2478 85.71%
14 20 84.78%
15 3683 84.06%
16 2046 83.87%
17 148 83.52%
18 5172 83.05%
19 1421 82.50%
20 971 82.14%
21 525 81.82%
22 33 81.34%
23 118 81.25%
24 870 81.25%
25 987 80.77%

Top 25 active Ontario

Rank Team Number Lifetime Win Rate
1 2056 84.04%
2 1114 80.78%
3 610 69.30%
4 5406 67.91%
5 1241 66.87%
6 3683 66.67%
7 188 62.52%
8 1310 62.00%
9 4476 61.29%
10 7735 61.29%
11 4678 61.07%
12 4917 60.70%
13 4946 60.27%
14 4039 60.04%
15 4976 59.63%
16 1305 59.06%
17 1325 58.07%
18 7664 57.78%
19 1285 57.07%
20 2852 56.12%
21 2200 55.98%
22 6110 55.56%
23 2708 55.41%
24 5036 54.79%
25 6867 54.40%
4 Likes

Cool stuff. The 2019 season list matches my automatically updating version pretty closely. Mine doesn’t count off-season matches though, which would likely account for any differences. I might need to think about adding an “all-time” list like you have.

2 Likes

Interesting stuff. Looks like we will be the first to 1500 total matches if we keep up around 100 a year or more. Also interesting to see that 2337 and 2056 are the only two teams in the top 25 above 1241.

Could you compile a list of Top 25 total wins all time?

@Nick_Coussens Here is the top 25 lifetime wins:

Rank Team Number Lifetime Wins Lifetime Losses Lifetime Ties Lifetime Win Rate Lifetime Total Matches
1 33 992 419 18 70.30% 1429
2 67 989 345 15 74.14% 1349
3 1114 950 226 13 80.78% 1189
4 118 925 281 11 76.70% 1217
5 254 882 195 5 81.89% 1082
6 217 842 436 19 65.88% 1297
7 2056 827 157 8 84.04% 992
8 195 825 311 16 72.62% 1152
9 469 815 330 13 71.18% 1158
10 27 809 421 16 65.77% 1246
11 148 776 261 9 74.83% 1046
12 1678 746 183 8 80.30% 937
13 125 696 401 17 63.45% 1114
14 494 692 377 23 64.73% 1092
15 1241 664 329 24 66.87% 1017
16 359 663 254 6 72.30% 923
17 330 654 208 13 75.87% 875
18 25 650 286 13 69.44% 949
19 624 650 341 17 65.59% 1008
20 2337 643 370 19 63.47% 1032
21 48 640 406 24 61.19% 1070
22 1918 639 282 18 69.38% 939
23 245 628 446 10 58.47% 1084
24 234 627 336 17 65.11% 980
25 2590 618 281 8 68.74% 907

And for extra curiosity most losses (48 is the only non district team here)

Rank Team Number Lifetime Wins Lifetime Losses Lifetime Ties Lifetime Win Rate Lifetime Total Matches
1 503 614 526 16 53.86% 1156
2 141 511 481 19 51.51% 1011
3 68 593 465 13 56.05% 1071
4 245 628 446 10 58.47% 1084
5 910 569 441 22 56.34% 1032
6 548 554 440 14 55.73% 1008
7 217 842 436 19 65.88% 1297
8 27 809 421 16 65.77% 1246
9 33 992 419 18 70.30% 1429
10 11 533 418 14 56.05% 965
11 190 481 409 18 54.04% 908
12 107 508 408 19 55.46% 935
13 48 640 406 24 61.19% 1070
14 125 696 401 17 63.45% 1114
15 230 611 399 12 60.50% 1022
16 288 272 393 19 40.90% 684
17 74 474 388 12 54.99% 874
18 862 462 385 16 54.55% 863
19 302 482 384 19 55.66% 885
20 70 541 382 19 58.61% 942
21 494 692 377 23 64.73% 1092
22 1218 601 374 11 61.64% 986
23 175 499 371 9 57.36% 879
24 2337 643 370 19 63.47% 1032
25 173 361 368 7 49.52% 736

and most ties

Rank Team Number Lifetime Wins Lifetime Losses Lifetime Ties Lifetime Win Rate Lifetime Total Matches
1 815 254 311 28 0.4496 593
2 379 398 320 26 0.5543 744
3 1747 393 301 25 0.5663 719
4 48 640 406 24 0.6119 1070
5 1241 664 329 24 0.6687 1017
6 1528 204 280 24 0.4215 508
7 79 343 247 24 0.5814 614
8 494 692 377 23 0.6473 1092
9 157 263 302 23 0.4655 588
10 1 278 300 23 0.481 601
11 1625 439 213 23 0.6733 675
12 2194 235 200 23 0.5402 458
13 910 569 441 22 0.5634 1032
14 1189 320 316 22 0.5031 658
15 240 200 227 22 0.4684 449
16 2630 216 141 22 0.605 379
17 2212 112 123 22 0.4766 257
18 2231 190 120 22 0.6129 332
19 1574 341 115 22 0.7478 478
20 1557 97 102 22 0.4874 221
21 226 397 366 21 0.5203 784
22 1073 336 324 21 0.5091 681
23 93 296 237 21 0.5553 554
24 932 213 231 21 0.4797 465
25 2537 198 211 21 0.4841 430

Total matches played per team’s season (including off-season events)

Rank Team Matches Played Win Rate Year
1 3538 180 70.95% 2018
2 225 161 83.23% 2018
3 319 146 76.71% 2018
4 2834 145 68.97% 2018
5 1241 145 75.89% 2018
6 694 141 77.30% 2018
7 2655 141 58.87% 2018
8 2337 140 72.86% 2018
9 2590 137 75.91% 2018
10 27 137 72.99% 2018
11 865 136 62.60% 2018
12 125 135 71.11% 2014
13 503 135 53.33% 2018
14 33 134 77.44% 2013
15 125 134 63.85% 2017
16 3641 134 62.69% 2018
17 1678 134 82.09% 2018
18 33 134 81.34% 2019
19 195 133 75.94% 2017
20 195 133 72.52% 2019
21 195 131 78.63% 2015
22 195 129 85.94% 2016
23 195 129 88.89% 2018
24 33 129 72.44% 2017
25 254 128 87.50% 2014
26 1640 128 63.78% 2016
1 Like

@BrennanB is your dataset modular enough that it’s easy for you to pull out off-season matches? I’d be curious to see what this looks like for official events only. However, if it’s a lot of work (as opposed to a simple “SUMIF”), don’t worry about; I’m not that curious.

5 Likes

With IRI, Kettering Kickoff, Goonettes Invitational, and Bloomfield Girls comp, I expect there’s a good chance we top 200 matches this year, and that’s not including running a B team at our last two offseasons.

Cool to see 33 is #1 in total wins, edged out 67 by 3. Guess we gotta try to fend off them and everyone else now.

1 Like

Winning a race you didn’t even know you were running in!

@Karthik Here you go, updated data including in season info only. NEW FRC 2019 Win Data.csv (3.3 MB)

EDIT: I just realized ties broke, will resolve/edit post when fixed.

Regular Season Win Rate (Active only)

Rank Team Number Total Season Wins Total Season Losses Total Season Ties Lifetime Season Win Rate Total Season Matches Played
1 2056 695 110 110 86.34% 810
2 254 700 140 123 83.33% 845
3 1114 825 175 160 82.50% 1008
4 1678 494 111 111 81.65% 609
5 118 697 190 182 78.58% 896
6 987 586 163 153 78.24% 754
7 330 553 155 145 78.11% 721
8 148 640 185 182 77.58% 833
9 5172 166 49 49 77.21% 216
10 67 873 266 253 76.65% 1151
11 1986 478 147 147 76.48% 629
12 2481 342 108 108 76.00% 453
13 5883 80 27 27 74.77% 108
14 1519 479 165 165 74.38% 650
15 1574 322 111 111 74.36% 443
16 359 619 216 211 74.13% 841
17 4414 37 13 13 74.00% 50
18 7498 34 12 12 73.91% 49
19 7521 45 16 16 73.77% 62
20 971 392 142 126 73.41% 541
21 1619 295 107 107 73.38% 407
22 4488 313 115 115 73.13% 431
23 6672 84 31 31 73.04% 116
24 469 718 269 260 72.75% 999
25 195 568 213 202 72.73% 791

Regular Season Total Matches Played

Rank Team Number Total Season Wins Total Season Losses Total Season Ties Lifetime Season Win Rate Total Season Matches Played
1 67 873 266 253 76.65% 1151
2 217 759 358 335 67.95% 1134
3 33 804 315 304 71.85% 1131
4 27 708 355 349 66.60% 1074
5 1114 825 175 160 82.50% 1008
6 469 718 269 260 72.75% 999
7 503 529 440 434 54.59% 980
8 494 622 327 317 65.54% 968
9 141 485 461 449 51.27% 964
10 245 558 369 360 60.19% 936
11 68 506 402 387 55.73% 916
12 125 582 320 306 64.52% 912
13 25 627 270 262 69.90% 908
14 118 697 190 182 78.58% 896
15 910 499 373 363 57.22% 889
16 11 491 376 364 56.63% 880
17 341 535 331 317 61.78% 877
18 1218 540 319 309 62.86% 870
19 1241 571 277 277 67.33% 863
20 1023 549 300 288 64.66% 857
21 48 513 328 315 61.00% 855
22 365 528 309 294 63.08% 850
23 548 476 366 355 56.53% 850
24 254 700 140 123 83.33% 845
25 2337 539 292 292 64.86% 843

Top 25 in season ONT (Active only)

Rank Team Number Lifetime Season Win Rate
1 2056 86.34%
2 1114 82.50%
3 610 69.14%
4 3683 68.67%
5 5406 68.51%
6 1241 67.33%
7 4976 63.51%
8 4039 63.27%
9 1310 63.04%
10 188 62.81%
11 4917 61.56%
12 4476 61.31%
13 7735 61.29%
14 4678 60.49%
15 4946 60.27%
16 1305 59.24%
17 1285 59.05%
18 1325 58.19%
19 7664 57.78%
20 2852 57.38%
21 6110 57.14%
22 1360 56.76%
23 2200 55.98%
24 5036 55.67%
25 2708 55.47%
6 Likes

And 9th in total losses! That’s a long history. :wink:

4 Likes

See any interesting trends here?

2 Likes

The trend is a little better for lifetime matches played vs. 2019 ELO. Play more; get better.

The 60-65 win percentage, 800-1000 matches played includes a lot of historically strong MAR teams clumped very close to each other. 222, 303, 341, 365, 1218, 1640, 1676. I wonder if the fact that these teams are always playing against, and beating each other, contributes to how closely they are clumped together.

That trendline has an R^2 of 0.2438 for anyone else who is wondering. Including all the teams above 100 matches* gives an R^2 of 0.3451.

You can’t tell from that image since you limited it to WRs >50% and >600 matches but it is pretty interesting that:

100% of teams with >800 matches have WRs above 50%.
80% of teams with <400 matches have WRs less than 50%.
97% of teams with <400 matches have WRs less than 60%.


*The data gets kind of weird under 100 matches, probably due to sample sizes and weird things like early FRC data missing/wrong.

4 Likes

Not that I don’t think experience is important but the causality here is probably the other direction: win more -> play more.
That is how the events and qualification processes are designed.

Is it even possible to have 600 career matches and a 30% winning percentage?

1 Like