paper: Win Rate Data

BrennanB · January 2, 2019, 6:11am

Thread created automatically to discuss a document in CD-Media.

Win Rate Data
by: BrennanB

Data pulled from all available TBA info, win rate analysis/sums

-Includes win/loss/tie sums over lifetime
-Win rates included
-Separated tabs per district.

Win Rate 2018.xlsx (12.1 MB)

BrennanB · January 1, 2019, 6:20pm

Some fun data based on win/loss/ties and win rates.

Some highlights featuring active teams only:

Top 25 Lifetime win rates:

Team	Wins	Ties	Losses	Win%
2056	738	8	145	83.28%
254	810	5	193	80.61%
1678	635	8	156	79.97%
1114	872	12	220	79.53%
4613	178	2	50	77.83%
1986	487	4	138	77.74%
987	575	5	170	77.00%
6907	20	0	6	76.92%
118	846	11	253	76.71%
5172	166	3	50	76.48%
1574	293	21	89	75.31%
330	617	14	206	74.55%
67	950	18	334	73.66%
2481	328	12	115	73.41%
1519	545	16	193	73.34%
148	689	10	251	73.05%
4488	285	2	107	72.59%
971	542	10	202	72.55%
469	805	13	306	72.20%
2122	445	11	169	72.08%
195	731	13	282	71.88%
16	587	12	230	71.53%
5883	45	0	18	71.43%
7021	30	0	12	71.43%

Top 25 Lifetime matches played:

Top 25 2018 only:

Top 25 ONT lifetime:

2056	738	8	145	83.28%
1114	872	12	220	79.53%
610	487	11	209	69.66%
1241	581	21	295	65.94%
5406	178	5	94	65.16%
3683	251	7	133	65.09%
4946	145	1	89	61.91%
4976	147	5	91	61.52%
4039	280	7	175	61.36%
188	411	10	259	61.18%
1310	315	6	201	60.92%
4917	176	1	114	60.65%
2708	61	2	40	60.19%
4678	187	5	123	60.16%
4476	152	6	105	58.94%
4001	161	2	112	58.91%
1360	96	6	67	58.58%
2852	191	9	139	57.67%
1305	394	9	290	57.50%
6875	38	3	28	57.25%
1285	180	8	136	56.79%
1325	284	14	224	55.75%
6110	53	1	43	55.15%
2706	75	0	61	55.15%
2013	275	7	224	55.04%

Amazingly 2056 has been in the top 25 teams in the world win terms of in rate every single year of their existence.

lurker · January 3, 2019, 6:42am

This is awesome. Where did you get your data from?

BrennanB:

Top 25 Lifetime matches played:

67		1302
33		1276
217		1204
27		1140
469		1124
118		1110
1114		1104
68		1043
503		1039
195		1026
125		1012
494		1010
254		1008
48		986
245		968
141		966
910		954
148		950
230		945
70		925
25		914
624		907
107		902
341		899
**1241		897**

Also this was pretty surprising.

BrennanB · January 3, 2019, 6:42am

All from TBA. This includes off season events.

Anuraag_Routray · January 3, 2019, 6:42am

No wonder we are up there. We’ve played over 100 matches the last couple of seasons, about 40% being in off-season.

BrennanB · July 1, 2019, 11:44pm

Time for a 2019 update, and some fun stats. Once again this includes off season event data.

Here is a CSV of the complete data set.

NEW FRC 2019 Win Data.csv (3.3 MB)

Highest win rate (Active teams only)

Rank	Team Number	Lifetime Wins	Lifetime Losses	Lifetime Ties	Lifetime Win Rate	Lifetime Total Matches
1	2056	827	157	8	84.04%	992
2	254	882	195	5	81.89%	1082
3	1114	950	226	13	80.78%	1189
4	1678	746	183	8	80.30%	937
5	5172	224	64	3	77.78%	291
6	987	612	178	5	77.47%	795
7	1986	554	166	4	76.94%	724
8	118	925	281	11	76.70%	1217
9	330	654	208	13	75.87%	875
10	4613	226	75	3	75.08%	304
11	148	776	261	9	74.83%	1046
12	1574	341	115	22	74.78%	478
13	67	989	345	15	74.14%	1349
14	4414	37	13	0	74.00%	50
15	5883	91	32	1	73.98%	124
16	7498	34	12	3	73.91%	49
17	7521	45	16	1	73.77%	62
18	971	604	217	10	73.57%	831
19	2481	370	133	11	73.56%	514
20	6672	84	31	1	73.04%	116
21	1519	608	227	17	72.81%	852
22	7447	16	6	1	72.73%	23
23	195	825	311	16	72.62%	1152
24	359	663	254	6	72.30%	923
25	2122	506	197	11	71.98%	714

Sorted by total number of matches.

Rank	Team Number	Lifetime Total Matches
1	33	1429
2	67	1349
3	217	1297
4	27	1246
5	118	1217
6	1114	1189
7	469	1158
8	503	1156
9	195	1152
10	125	1114
11	494	1092
12	245	1084
13	254	1082
14	68	1071
15	48	1070
16	148	1046
17	2337	1032
18	910	1032
19	230	1022
20	1241	1017
21	141	1011
22	624	1008
23	548	1008
24	2056	992
25	1218	986

2019 Win rate, 2056 continues their streak of being top 25 on win rate for every year of the team’s existence.

Rank	Team Number	2019 Win Rate
1	1114	94.29%
2	254	92.73%
3	2056	91.43%
4	364	91.30%
5	1323	91.07%
6	330	87.23%
7	2910	87.06%
8	3310	87.01%
9	1678	86.11%
10	359	86.08%
11	3707	85.90%
12	973	85.71%
13	2478	85.71%
14	20	84.78%
15	3683	84.06%
16	2046	83.87%
17	148	83.52%
18	5172	83.05%
19	1421	82.50%
20	971	82.14%
21	525	81.82%
22	33	81.34%
23	118	81.25%
24	870	81.25%
25	987	80.77%

Top 25 active Ontario

Rank	Team Number	Lifetime Win Rate
1	2056	84.04%
2	1114	80.78%
3	610	69.30%
4	5406	67.91%
5	1241	66.87%
6	3683	66.67%
7	188	62.52%
8	1310	62.00%
9	4476	61.29%
10	7735	61.29%
11	4678	61.07%
12	4917	60.70%
13	4946	60.27%
14	4039	60.04%
15	4976	59.63%
16	1305	59.06%
17	1325	58.07%
18	7664	57.78%
19	1285	57.07%
20	2852	56.12%
21	2200	55.98%
22	6110	55.56%
23	2708	55.41%
24	5036	54.79%
25	6867	54.40%

AriMB · July 1, 2019, 8:39am

Cool stuff. The 2019 season list matches my automatically updating version pretty closely. Mine doesn’t count off-season matches though, which would likely account for any differences. I might need to think about adding an “all-time” list like you have.

Nick_Coussens · July 1, 2019, 8:49am

Interesting stuff. Looks like we will be the first to 1500 total matches if we keep up around 100 a year or more. Also interesting to see that 2337 and 2056 are the only two teams in the top 25 above 1241.

Could you compile a list of Top 25 total wins all time?

BrennanB · July 1, 2019, 5:28pm

@Nick_Coussens Here is the top 25 lifetime wins:

Rank	Team Number	Lifetime Wins	Lifetime Losses	Lifetime Ties	Lifetime Win Rate	Lifetime Total Matches
1	33	992	419	18	70.30%	1429
2	67	989	345	15	74.14%	1349
3	1114	950	226	13	80.78%	1189
4	118	925	281	11	76.70%	1217
5	254	882	195	5	81.89%	1082
6	217	842	436	19	65.88%	1297
7	2056	827	157	8	84.04%	992
8	195	825	311	16	72.62%	1152
9	469	815	330	13	71.18%	1158
10	27	809	421	16	65.77%	1246
11	148	776	261	9	74.83%	1046
12	1678	746	183	8	80.30%	937
13	125	696	401	17	63.45%	1114
14	494	692	377	23	64.73%	1092
15	1241	664	329	24	66.87%	1017
16	359	663	254	6	72.30%	923
17	330	654	208	13	75.87%	875
18	25	650	286	13	69.44%	949
19	624	650	341	17	65.59%	1008
20	2337	643	370	19	63.47%	1032
21	48	640	406	24	61.19%	1070
22	1918	639	282	18	69.38%	939
23	245	628	446	10	58.47%	1084
24	234	627	336	17	65.11%	980
25	2590	618	281	8	68.74%	907

And for extra curiosity most losses (48 is the only non district team here)

Rank	Team Number	Lifetime Wins	Lifetime Losses	Lifetime Ties	Lifetime Win Rate	Lifetime Total Matches
1	503	614	526	16	53.86%	1156
2	141	511	481	19	51.51%	1011
3	68	593	465	13	56.05%	1071
4	245	628	446	10	58.47%	1084
5	910	569	441	22	56.34%	1032
6	548	554	440	14	55.73%	1008
7	217	842	436	19	65.88%	1297
8	27	809	421	16	65.77%	1246
9	33	992	419	18	70.30%	1429
10	11	533	418	14	56.05%	965
11	190	481	409	18	54.04%	908
12	107	508	408	19	55.46%	935
13	48	640	406	24	61.19%	1070
14	125	696	401	17	63.45%	1114
15	230	611	399	12	60.50%	1022
16	288	272	393	19	40.90%	684
17	74	474	388	12	54.99%	874
18	862	462	385	16	54.55%	863
19	302	482	384	19	55.66%	885
20	70	541	382	19	58.61%	942
21	494	692	377	23	64.73%	1092
22	1218	601	374	11	61.64%	986
23	175	499	371	9	57.36%	879
24	2337	643	370	19	63.47%	1032
25	173	361	368	7	49.52%	736

and most ties

Rank	Team Number	Lifetime Wins	Lifetime Losses	Lifetime Ties	Lifetime Win Rate	Lifetime Total Matches
1	815	254	311	28	0.4496	593
2	379	398	320	26	0.5543	744
3	1747	393	301	25	0.5663	719
4	48	640	406	24	0.6119	1070
5	1241	664	329	24	0.6687	1017
6	1528	204	280	24	0.4215	508
7	79	343	247	24	0.5814	614
8	494	692	377	23	0.6473	1092
9	157	263	302	23	0.4655	588
10	1	278	300	23	0.481	601
11	1625	439	213	23	0.6733	675
12	2194	235	200	23	0.5402	458
13	910	569	441	22	0.5634	1032
14	1189	320	316	22	0.5031	658
15	240	200	227	22	0.4684	449
16	2630	216	141	22	0.605	379
17	2212	112	123	22	0.4766	257
18	2231	190	120	22	0.6129	332
19	1574	341	115	22	0.7478	478
20	1557	97	102	22	0.4874	221
21	226	397	366	21	0.5203	784
22	1073	336	324	21	0.5091	681
23	93	296	237	21	0.5553	554
24	932	213	231	21	0.4797	465
25	2537	198	211	21	0.4841	430

BrennanB · July 1, 2019, 4:56pm

Total matches played per team’s season (including off-season events)

Rank	Team	Matches Played	Win Rate	Year
1	3538	180	70.95%	2018
2	225	161	83.23%	2018
3	319	146	76.71%	2018
4	2834	145	68.97%	2018
5	1241	145	75.89%	2018
6	694	141	77.30%	2018
7	2655	141	58.87%	2018
8	2337	140	72.86%	2018
9	2590	137	75.91%	2018
10	27	137	72.99%	2018
11	865	136	62.60%	2018
12	125	135	71.11%	2014
13	503	135	53.33%	2018
14	33	134	77.44%	2013
15	125	134	63.85%	2017
16	3641	134	62.69%	2018
17	1678	134	82.09%	2018
18	33	134	81.34%	2019
19	195	133	75.94%	2017
20	195	133	72.52%	2019
21	195	131	78.63%	2015
22	195	129	85.94%	2016
23	195	129	88.89%	2018
24	33	129	72.44%	2017
25	254	128	87.50%	2014
26	1640	128	63.78%	2016

Karthik · July 1, 2019, 5:23pm

@BrennanB is your dataset modular enough that it’s easy for you to pull out off-season matches? I’d be curious to see what this looks like for official events only. However, if it’s a lot of work (as opposed to a simple “SUMIF”), don’t worry about; I’m not that curious.

Nick_Coussens · July 1, 2019, 9:17pm

With IRI, Kettering Kickoff, Goonettes Invitational, and Bloomfield Girls comp, I expect there’s a good chance we top 200 matches this year, and that’s not including running a B team at our last two offseasons.

Cool to see 33 is #1 in total wins, edged out 67 by 3. Guess we gotta try to fend off them and everyone else now.

BordomBeThyName · July 1, 2019, 9:19pm

Winning a race you didn’t even know you were running in!

BrennanB · July 1, 2019, 11:47pm

@Karthik Here you go, updated data including in season info only. NEW FRC 2019 Win Data.csv (3.3 MB)

EDIT: I just realized ties broke, will resolve/edit post when fixed.

Regular Season Win Rate (Active only)

Rank	Team Number	Total Season Wins	Total Season Losses	Total Season Ties	Lifetime Season Win Rate	Total Season Matches Played
1	2056	695	110	110	86.34%	810
2	254	700	140	123	83.33%	845
3	1114	825	175	160	82.50%	1008
4	1678	494	111	111	81.65%	609
5	118	697	190	182	78.58%	896
6	987	586	163	153	78.24%	754
7	330	553	155	145	78.11%	721
8	148	640	185	182	77.58%	833
9	5172	166	49	49	77.21%	216
10	67	873	266	253	76.65%	1151
11	1986	478	147	147	76.48%	629
12	2481	342	108	108	76.00%	453
13	5883	80	27	27	74.77%	108
14	1519	479	165	165	74.38%	650
15	1574	322	111	111	74.36%	443
16	359	619	216	211	74.13%	841
17	4414	37	13	13	74.00%	50
18	7498	34	12	12	73.91%	49
19	7521	45	16	16	73.77%	62
20	971	392	142	126	73.41%	541
21	1619	295	107	107	73.38%	407
22	4488	313	115	115	73.13%	431
23	6672	84	31	31	73.04%	116
24	469	718	269	260	72.75%	999
25	195	568	213	202	72.73%	791

Regular Season Total Matches Played

Rank	Team Number	Total Season Wins	Total Season Losses	Total Season Ties	Lifetime Season Win Rate	Total Season Matches Played
1	67	873	266	253	76.65%	1151
2	217	759	358	335	67.95%	1134
3	33	804	315	304	71.85%	1131
4	27	708	355	349	66.60%	1074
5	1114	825	175	160	82.50%	1008
6	469	718	269	260	72.75%	999
7	503	529	440	434	54.59%	980
8	494	622	327	317	65.54%	968
9	141	485	461	449	51.27%	964
10	245	558	369	360	60.19%	936
11	68	506	402	387	55.73%	916
12	125	582	320	306	64.52%	912
13	25	627	270	262	69.90%	908
14	118	697	190	182	78.58%	896
15	910	499	373	363	57.22%	889
16	11	491	376	364	56.63%	880
17	341	535	331	317	61.78%	877
18	1218	540	319	309	62.86%	870
19	1241	571	277	277	67.33%	863
20	1023	549	300	288	64.66%	857
21	48	513	328	315	61.00%	855
22	365	528	309	294	63.08%	850
23	548	476	366	355	56.53%	850
24	254	700	140	123	83.33%	845
25	2337	539	292	292	64.86%	843

Top 25 in season ONT (Active only)

Rank	Team Number	Lifetime Season Win Rate
1	2056	86.34%
2	1114	82.50%
3	610	69.14%
4	3683	68.67%
5	5406	68.51%
6	1241	67.33%
7	4976	63.51%
8	4039	63.27%
9	1310	63.04%
10	188	62.81%
11	4917	61.56%
12	4476	61.31%
13	7735	61.29%
14	4678	60.49%
15	4946	60.27%
16	1305	59.24%
17	1285	59.05%
18	1325	58.19%
19	7664	57.78%
20	2852	57.38%
21	6110	57.14%
22	1360	56.76%
23	2200	55.98%
24	5036	55.67%
25	2708	55.47%

Citrus_Dad · July 2, 2019, 7:20pm

And 9th in total losses! That’s a long history.

Richard_Wallace · July 3, 2019, 1:27am

See any interesting trends here?

BordomBeThyName · July 3, 2019, 3:07am

The trend is a little better for lifetime matches played vs. 2019 ELO. Play more; get better.

seans341 · July 3, 2019, 1:19pm

The 60-65 win percentage, 800-1000 matches played includes a lot of historically strong MAR teams clumped very close to each other. 222, 303, 341, 365, 1218, 1640, 1676. I wonder if the fact that these teams are always playing against, and beating each other, contributes to how closely they are clumped together.

Matt_G · July 3, 2019, 3:11pm

That trendline has an R^2 of 0.2438 for anyone else who is wondering. Including all the teams above 100 matches* gives an R^2 of 0.3451.

You can’t tell from that image since you limited it to WRs >50% and >600 matches but it is pretty interesting that:

100% of teams with >800 matches have WRs above 50%.
80% of teams with <400 matches have WRs less than 50%.
97% of teams with <400 matches have WRs less than 60%.

*The data gets kind of weird under 100 matches, probably due to sample sizes and weird things like early FRC data missing/wrong.

Whatever · July 3, 2019, 4:19pm

Not that I don’t think experience is important but the causality here is probably the other direction: win more -> play more.
That is how the events and qualification processes are designed.

Is it even possible to have 600 career matches and a 30% winning percentage?