PCH District: DCMP Predictions

Qualifiers in review…
Week 4 marked the official end of the 2017 PCH district qualifying season, in which teams played 536 qualification matches and 148 playoff matches. As a quick review of the qualifying events, let’s take a look at some interesting little factoids:

  • The 12 district championship banners were earned by 11 teams
  • The 3rd rotor was engaged 90% of the time during the Albany playoffs
  • 4 rotors were engaged just 7 times across all PCH qualifiers
  • Over the district’s 684 official matches, teams scored just 290 fuel points (.42 per match)
  • The highest kPa during a match was a whopping 14

To no one’s surprise, the district was largely dominated by the gear and the climb, but we’re really interested to see how the dynamic will shift during the district championship, where 45 of the best teams from the state will come to duke it out for one of the 18 seats to worlds. However, as we usually do, we have our own guesses as to how things will play out.

Gearing at states…
An average person might look at the numbers throughout the season and say that, at states, 3 rotor matches will be highly likely and 4 rotor matches will be rare. However, the district championship brings the most capable robots from around GA, some of whom can achieve three rotors all on their own.

As such, we believe this will unlock the potential for a fourth rotor for a lot of teams at states. While it takes contribution from an entire alliance to score four rotors, consider the sheer number of teams at states that will be able to score gears. All of a sudden, it’s not out of the question for a team of 3 gearing robots to deliver four gears a pop and achieve the feat that has eluded much of the district so far.

Deja Vu…
However, with such a central focus on gears, we can’t help but get a sense of deja vu back to the 2016 PCH DCMP, where the best low goaling, breaching, and capturing robots found their way to the front of the pack. However, regardless of their potency, they were ultimately routed by teams who brought the rain with high goals.

Shooting doesn’t offer that large of an advantage in SteamtWerks, but when alliances score three rotors in the first 60 seconds of the match and then play defense on each other, there has to be a differentiator. There has to be a tie breaker. And while some teams will place a large bet on the fourth rotor being the difference, we’re not sure if that the bet will pay off in the heat of eliminations.

To the teams…
As a special treat for DCMP, instead of listing the usual movers and shakers, we’re going to list the top 10 teams in the district. To aid us in this analysis, we gave teams a 0 to 5 rating in four categories; gearing abilities (G), high goal abilities (H), low goal abilities (L), and climbing abilities © .

1746 (G:4, H:2, L:0, C:5) - Otto has wowed the district with a quick drivetrain and a passive gear mechanism that is, by and far, the best in the district. Otto has also shown shooting potential, by firing off a few shots during autonomous at the Columbus qualifier. We believe that solid gear capabilities combined with sporadic shooting put Otto at the top. However, if they execute on their upgrades and dial in their shooter by states, they’re a shoe-in for the blue banner.

2974 (G:4, H:2, L:0, C:5) - Walton Robotics has shown that you don’t need fancy sheet metal or laser cut wood to get the job done. They’ve swept all three of their district qualifiers with a solid gear mechanism and aggressive driving, and also fired off four shots at the end of Albany, all of which made it in. Walton has a lot of potential and, perhaps more importantly, they have a lot of momentum. However, Walton attended the easiest events in the area and as impressive as their 100% accuracy may seem, they’ve only shot four balls. It’ll be a test for Walton to play with the big boys, but if they can continue their success, we could see Walton take home a 5th banner this season.

2415 (G:5, H:0, L:0, C:5) - The Wiredcats have used their slippery fast drivetrain and expanding gear mechanism to impose their will on the district. What’s even more impressive is the fact that the Wiredcats have been a part of five of seven 4-rotor matches played so far. Clearly the Wiredcats are doing something right, and if they can execute on their floor pick up at DCMP, they just might 4-rotor their way to the front of the pack and a blue banner.

4188 (G:5, H:0, L:0, C:5) - The Columbus Space Program (CSP) has used its focus on gears to become one of the best specialists in the state. CSP started with aspirations of potentially having a shooter, but after their first match, they haven’t looked back. Since then, CSP has added a floor gear intake and active release to their robot, mechanisms that have helped them sit on the 1st or 2nd seeds of every event they’ve been to. Even though they only have one banner, don’t let that fool you. If left alone, CSP is perfectly capable of spinning three rotors on their own.

4468 (G:5, H:0, L:0, C:5) - The Fernbank Links have carried their simplicity mantra into the 2017 season. While their gear mechanism is a little scrappy, they have a solid drivetrain, an aggressive driver, and an improved hanging mechanism. While you shouldn’t expect to see Fernbank at the top of the rankings, don’t be surprised if they manage to find their way onto an alliance of equally scrappy robots and roll their way to the finals.

4910 (G:4, H:1, L:0, C:4) - The team from East Cobb, you guess it, East Cobb Robotics, has wowed the district with consistent performance and an active-release gear mechanism. While they made a bit of a splash in Gainesville, their big show was really at Columbus, where they routed the second seed on their way to the championship. We expect East Cobb to do well, but if they can get their fuel mechanisms firing, they might just upgrade from ‘doing well’ to ‘PCH State Champions.’

6705 (G:5, H:0, L:0, C:4) - The rookies from Dunwoody, Wildcat 5e, have set a pretty high bar for all rookies in PCH. Their small, but quick gear-and-climbing robot has sliced through the district, capturing a finalist berth at Gainesville and the 2nd seed at Dalton. While we haven’t seen the Wildcats play for some time, if they’re able to maintain consistency throughout DCMP, we could see them play an integral part of a power-packed alliance.

4941 (G:4, H:0, L:0, C:5) - The team from Macon, Robobibb, is certainly having a breakout year. While all they do is gears and climb, they do it with a certain potency. Although their gear mechanism has some room for improvement, their wicked fast drivetrain and top-tier driving have shown that they’re more than capable of attacking multiple facets of the game without pause.

1648 (G:3, H:2, L:0, C:5) - G3 robotics hit the ground running and netted a series of upsets on their way to the Gainesville Championship. However, since then G3 has somewhat faltered, failing to execute critical improvements and not delivering on the shooter front. While their strategy and driving have bridged the gap, look for G3 to try some more improvements at DCMP and flex their scouting muscles to land them a decent alliance for eliminations.

1002 (G:4, H:0, L:0, C:3) - The circuitrunners are out to show the district that mecanums can work, and for the most part, they’re doing a decent job. They have a simple, reliable gear mechanism and an equally simple, albeit somewhat suspect, climber that makes them a solid part of any alliance. If the circuitrunners can keep it clean during qualification, look for them to go early in alliance selections. If they can keep it clean during eliminations, look for them to help their alliance sneak into the finals.

Looking at Chairmans…
As is somewhat of a tradition, we’re going to take a brief moment to break down the race for the Chairmans Award at DCMP.

We’re going to preface our analysis by saying that all four District Chairmans Award winning teams have built stellar programs that are worthy of the recognition that has been bestowed to them. The sheer impact of these programs is something that all FRC teams across the state should seek to emulate.

Turning to our award winners, and to no one’s surprise, we have our two residential Chairmans winners, 1311 (Kell) and 2974 (Walton). They’re joined, once again, by 1648 (G3 Robotics) who is starting to become a bit of a household name in the outreach space. Finally, rounding out the group is team 4730 (Terminators), who is a newcomer onto the outreach scene from Albany.

Kell is the epitome of legacy; they’re the seasoned veteran who likes to drive around in pristine luxury cars and enjoys spending evenings reading the New York Times, print copy, of course. Their outreach spans from local involvement to government initiatives, which ultimately amounts to a program that has a staggering amount of measurable impact over the better part of the last decade.

Walton’s outreach continues to amaze with diverse programs like GirlsFIRST, the STEM Toolbox, and even international outreach, all of which are centered around Destination Einstein, which continues to be their crown jewel. Therefore, as Walton’s underlying initiatives continue to grow and expand, their impact continues to grow alongside them.

After their win at Columbus last year, we weren’t sure if G3 would be back in the Chairmans talk this year, but they’ve shown that they have an outreach program that’s sustainable and worth paying attention to. They’ve built their notoriety off two things: drones and bringing robots to the Atlanta area. While both efforts are commendable and indeed very attractive, G3’s impact numbers seem to have them swimming against the current at DCMP.

Finally, we have the Terminators from Albany, GA. We welcome the Terminators to the Chairmans discussion and we’re especially happy to see south GA represented. Their program is one that’s deeply rooted in bringing robotics to the very non-STEM community in Albany. They’ve established the first FLL event in the area and they even have a robotics competition that attempts to engage their entire school in competition. While we applaud them for their efforts and hope to see them take this award again next year, their measurable impact comes up light in this category.

I have to add some comments on 4468’s and 2974’s gear ratings.

I could be wrong about 4468 but I remember at Gainseville, gears would fall out of their mechanism with very low amount of contact from defenders, I wasn’t able to watch much of them at Columbus to see if their problem was fixed, but I know their scoring is still effective. I would’ve had them at max a G:4.

With 2974, at Albany finals, with good hits from the opposing alliance (mostly 4941 and some 4080) 2 or 3 gears popped out of their mechanism, almost costing their alliance a 3rd rotor had it not been for 4188’s floor pickup. Even so, I agree that 2974 still has top tier scoring with 3-5 gears per match (based on my observations at Albany). I would keep them at G:4.

You know our drivers have always been sensitive about our intakes. :] Anyway Albany was a prototype. We will see if what we have now is any better. Thanks to Westminster for the ideas. Looking forward to an exciting event.

The wood gear mechanism was actually scrapped after Gainesville and replaced with a new polycarb mechanism at Columbus that carries the gears quite a bit better.

How exactly do you define a 5 vs a 1 in terms of shooting? So far a lot of teams that you have as shooting ability ranked at 2/5 have shot no balls into a high goal as opposed to some teams that have shot balls into a high goal.
In addition, I think that it is odd that you note so much more attention to the potential for high goal rather than the already proven importance of defense, an increased consistency in climbing for many teams, or 3 gear autonomous in elims. Not saying that high goaling won’t matter and I think it will definitely play a factor, but I don’t think it will be as large as you believe it to be in comparison to some of these other factors. Seeing as shooting is a harder technical challenge to have consistent and accurate shooter than anything else in this game I would only count on teams that have proven to make new mechanisms work well in the past like otto or walton in making their shooters work well or teams that have already proved they can shoot into the high goal somewhat consistently such as metal crusaders or kell. Also I think Marist is a big factor in this competition that you are leaving out.

but also

:rolleyes:

Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but all three of those teams listed there have shot balls into the high goal, with the exception of 4910 (who is the only team listed as a 1).

While I absolutely see your point about paying more attention to high goals, I tend to disagree that the other things you’ve listed there will make a bigger difference. Just about every team at this event will have a proven climber, so far as that missing a climb will be a larger event than making a climb, by far. 4 rotors often comes down to depth on an allaince: with many teams, especially playoff bound ones, averaging 3+ gears a match, I think we’ll see about half of the playoff alliances be able to complete a fourth rotor, even under defense.

Finally, speaking of defense, it’s important to note that the effectiveness of defense often comes down to the type of defense implemented and the alliance strategy. For example, 3091 played extremely effective defense in the semis at Columbus against 2415/1683/3573. However, 3091 made a smaller difference against the 1746/4188/6177 alliance. Yet, at the same time, the 1746 alliance was stoppable: 5582 showed that in their semifinal match, playing effective lane defense instead of arc defense on the other end. So while you can rate the effectiveness of a team’s defense (3091 definitely gave us and 5332 trouble), it’s much harder to gauge than fuel scoring in most cases. Additionally, if 3091 had not had the fuel scoring of 6340 on their alliance, it’s likely they would have had to run gears, because they would be unable to count on that tiebreaker.

While I don’t believe Informer’s list is perfect, I see and mostly agree with the logic behind it.

Overall, I think we’ll see a very interesting situation play out, where fuel scoring will come out as, likely the defining difference. Even with the increasing number of floor pickups, I don’t expect any combination of two robots to be able to do four rotors by themselves; teams will be cutting the line too close, and any alliance who can get four rotors otherwise will likely be smart enough to put a defense bot on one of those two just long enough to ensure that you can’t get there. You’ll need contributions from all three robots. Many alliances will achieve this because of the depth in GA, and we’ll see a lot of 445 scores: however, in order to secure the win, you’ll need a little fuel scoring. I expect the winning score to be something like 448-455, where the winning alliance scores some fuel in autonomous, enough to separate themselves from the pack, executes four rotors, and successfully climbs.

Things to look for at State:
-Has 2974 fixed their auton to have a greater consistency and where are they at with shooting
-Has 2415 been working at cycle times, they usually get stuck at the peg for a while

I feel it’s a bit unfair to not mention team 5293 the Metal Crusaders in the rankings. They were the number 2 alliance captain at Gainesville and led us to the semi finals (where we dced and lost the match). Then they were the number one alliance captain at Dalton and lost to the eventual winners in semis. From our time on an alliance together they seemed to have a solid high goal autonomous and solid passive gearing mech that would get 4 gears a match. Their climber, was also one of the most consistent at Gainseville.

As entertaining as these predictions are, please stay safe travelling today. From where I am at GaTech (go Jackets :wink: )it doesn’t look like a very fun day for a road trip. See everyone tomorrow bright and early!

Congratulations to 1746, 4941, and 5074 on winning the PCH DCMP.

  • Sunny G.

First off, I want to congratulate our quarterfinal opponents, and eventual district champions, 4941, 1746, and 5074. 1746 is our good friends, and there’s no team more deserving than these guys. Without a doubt, they have the best robot in the state, and the best chance, in my mind, to see Einstein in a couple weeks.

We’re also extremely happy to see 4941 win their first banner in their team history. It was a crying shame to see you leave Gainesville and Albany without a banner, and you all finally earned what you deserved. While the robot may be simple, this great team and great organization would not surprise me at all by making big noise on the big stage.

I still cannot believe 5074 went that late in the draft. During our rough first day, we slammed into a wall in our second match and disconnected our router power. 5074 took the lead and led that alliance to victory anyway. Without them, we would not have had the luxury of once more being an alliance captain, and I want to extend a hearty congratulations to them for winning their second banner in team history (two year streak!).

As for our alliance, I can’t say enough about 4468 and 3091. Stand up acts throughout the entire competition, there aren’t many groups of mentors and students I enjoy being partners, rivals, and friends with than Fernbank LINKS. I’m still surprised we found them that late in the draft, and although things didn’t end up working out for our alliance, they were a pleasure to work with throughout. A class act of a team.

The same goes for 3091. Although this is the second time we’ve partnered up and exited earlier than we would have liked, we have always appreciated the quality of play you guys deliver and the quality team we get to work with every time. I stand by my belief that your defensive work would have been among the best in Houston, and I’m sad to see both of our DCMP alliance partners without a bid to Champs.

As for us, well, for the first time in a while, G3 feels like we’re just about to hit our stride. Our auton shooting matches (and once or twice surpassed) the best in the state, our gear catcher is much improved, and our drivetrain kinks are looking to be worked out. With some more practice and tuning, I’m looking forward to being competitive in any division we’re assigned.

Finally, thanks to the volunteers that make these events possible. The field staff, FTAs, and Refs in particular deserve a shoutout for the 6 minute, 20 second cycles they were running for almost the entire first day. Always love the Emceeing by Kyle and Tony, and we’re looking forward to future events!

Technically it’s not our first banner, we had rookie all star in 2014 at Peachtree
Besides that, thank you! The emcee definitely emphasized our simplicity in the quality award speech lol. 1746 caught my eye the second I finished watching their match where they had about 7 auto kpa, 5 gears, and a quick climb. I literally said “I want it” to our mentor following the match. Being complimented on our driver so many times without the banner didn’t seem right so now we can finally add some hardware to this amazing season and add credibility to our name.