Your OPR Alliance score estimator will always create a more normal distribution than the actuals because it is using an average value, and not a scoring distribution. the minibot is a great example of this, and you 30/0/30/0 vs. 15/15/15/15 hits the nail right on the head. Both of these scenarios have the same average and thus would add to the OPR scoring algorithm the same way. From an Actuals though, the 30/0 would lead to 2 groupings which is more accurrate for the 2011 scoring.
The point to my comment was that the “average” or median robot does score significantly less than most people would estimate.
Our kids did an estimate on the VEX game this year. I think the max possible score was on the order of 60 pts. I then let them work on an estimate of what a good score would be. Initially they came up with a figure in the 40s. We did some refining techniques and their new estimate was much closer to 24-25 points. At their tournament this past weekend, that was pretty much exactly where the “good” scores came in. One alliance hit a 29 during a match.
For 2010, the average alliance score was around 4 points, but this was partially skewed by having the higher scorers contribute to more alliance scores because eliminations data was used as well (16 elims matches at FLR relative to 74 Qual matches with the best of the best playing in 50% of those elims matches). If you only use Qualification data, the average alliance score will be slightly lower than 3 pts. which means the “average” contribution would/should be just under 1 pt. The Median being slightly below this. To put this into perspective, if you started in the home zone, and just scored the 1 ball in the home zone every match, you would be better than 50% of the 2010 field. If you could hang (worth 2 pts.) 100% of the time, you would be over 2X the national “average”. If you could put 1 ball in and hang, then you would make it to 3 pts. and be able to outscore about 50% of alliances, all by yourself. At an event like FLR, this would put you in the top 7 or so of teams. Top 7 and you are only pushing 1 ball in the goal, and hanging at the end…:yikes: If your goal was to be an alliance captain or picked, targeting those easy 2-3 points is a very reasonable target. Notice the strategic difference though between these 3 points (which can be accomplished in the home zone) versus 3 points from a different zone. 3 points kicking balls means moving 3 balls into the home zone. Then moving the robot into the home zone, and then re-collecting and scoring the 3 balls. By my count this is a minimum of 7 actions to get 3 points (if you consider acquire, and then transfer seperate moves, it can be as many as 13 moves). Versus the original strategy which is 2-3 actions for 3 points…
For 2011, similar analysis shows the average score for an alliance being under 30 pts. It also showed that minibots were frequently not launched at all. Doing a post season analysis, If you simply had a good reliable minibot system, (not even a sub 2 second minibot) you would win most of your matches. At an absolute minimum, a scoring minibot was worth 10 points which was again more than the “average” contribution and well above the Median. Compare this to scoring tubes. Top row tubes are worth 3 points. 2x if you make a logo. If you hang an ubertube, its 6 in Auto, and up to an additional 6 points if you make a logo over it. In other words, in order to score 30 points in tubes, you would need to score an Ubertube in Autonomous, acquire and hang 3 different shaped tubes, in the right order (one of which would be difficult as you are hanging it over a ubertube). Again, this is 7 actions just to get to 30 points, versus essentially 2 actions for the minibot (align to tower and launch minibot). using the minibot minimum of 10 points, you would still need to score and uber tube and then acquire an hang another tube over it in order to beat the minibot minimum. If you don’t have an autonomous, then you would have to hang a minimum of 3 different tubes top row creating a logo (6 actions) or 4 tubes top row not creating a logo (8 actions) just to beat the minimum minibot contribution…
- Do a scoring analysis (all the way to get and block points, and then prioritize the way to get those points with the fewest distinct actions).
- Do some field analysis. The best way to be playing in elims is to win qualifications and be an alliance captain. Be realistic on what a real alliance score will be. Understand that only about 25% of teams will get autonomous bonus points, and only about 25% of teams will hit most end game bonuses. Being able to get one of those bonuses every time will usually move you towards the top of the field.
- Be realistic in your goals, and relentless in hitting them.