Now that there are just two weeks of competition left before the district championship I thought it might be interesting to see how the field was shaping up. I did this last year as well: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=128388
I’m using the same methodology as before. The same caveats apply:
-This is not official in any way
-This does not take into account chairman’s award winners
-This does not take into account rookie points
-Assumes that everyone who’s invited will attend
Last year’s predictions turned out to be pretty good, one new thing to keep in mind this year is that there are more events late in the schedule. Last year’s predictions were made with 1 and 2 weeks remaining, which was 1 and 3 events remaining, respectively. As of now there are two weeks of competition remaining and 4 events left.
Key
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Yeah, it may be a bit pessimistic about the odds for teams that haven’t competed at all yet. It is listing them as “~out” rather than “out” though. And with room for only 64 out of 151 teams most won’t make the cut.
There are 38 teams with 35 district points or more that still have one more event; so any predictions at his point are going to be a very rough guess at best.
In the end, somewhere near 70 district points is probably the threshold.
The current top 18 and the District Chairmen’s Award Winners (below) are the only sure thing at this point
1540 Oregon City
2557 Auburn Mountainview
2930 Glacier Peak
4125 West Valley
2930 Glacier Peak
3574 Wilsonville
2980 Mount Vernon
There are two chairmans well below the cut line, so 62 spots today. There are 14 teams likely to be bracket busters with their final week score as well. If you assume some typical qual, selection, and 5 points for a semi win or award you would have a very different looking projection. There are some of the ~in teams with a second event next week that are pretty much locks at this point as well.
Oh, intereting. I assumed that once the leaderboard page quit saying “in progress” all the numbers were there. Evidentely that doesn’t, so I’ll have to manually check that the scores are in from here on out.
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 47
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 90
Best estimate: 62
{'bubble': 45, 'out': 38, '~in': 31, '~out': 21, 'in': 17}
0 in 1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1 in 4488 - Shockwave
2 in 1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
3 in 1595 - Dragons
4 in 2471 - Team Mean Machine
5 in 492 - Titan Robotics Club
6 in 2635 - Lake Monsters
7 in 3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
8 in 4061 - SciBorgs
9 in 4911 - CyberKnights
10 in 3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
11 in 2907 - Lion Robotics
12 in 3787 - Wild Robotocats
13 in 2046 - Bear Metal
14 in 5111 - SaxonBots
15 in 1540 - Flaming Chickens
16 in 4915 - Spartronics
17 ~in 2557 - SOTAbots
18 ~in 4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
19 ~in 3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
20 ~in 2930 - Glacier Peak Sonic Squirrels
21 ~in 5468 - Retro-bots
22 ~in 3711 - Iron Mustang
23 ~in 3826 - SkyNet Robotics North West
24 ~in 4918 - The Roboctopi
25 ~in 2147 - CHUCK
26 ~in 5779 - CB Tech
27 ~in 3968 - Higher Voltage
28 ~in 4654 - Mountaineers
29 ~in 4205 - ROBOCUBS
30 ~in 2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
31 ~in 2550 - Skynet
32 ~in 3588 - the Talon
33 ~in 2522 - Royal Robotics
34 ~in 2944 - Titanium Tigers
35 ~in 5495 - Aluminati
36 ~in 4513 - Circuit Breakers
37 ~in 1510 - Wildcats
38 ~in 3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
39 ~in 4980 - Canine Crusaders
40 ~in 2149 - CV Bearbots
41 ~in 1778 - Chill Out..!
42 ~in 3218 - Panther Robotics
43 ~in 488 - Team XBot
44 ~in 4132 - Scotbots
45 ~in 4681 - Murphy's law
46 ~out 3789 - On Track Robotics
47 ~in 948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
48 ~out 4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
49 ~out 4125 - Confidential
50 ~out 2733 - Pigmice
51 ~out 2555 - RoboRams
52 ~in 1425 - Error Code Xero
53 ~out 2412 - Robototes
54 bubble 3574 - HIGH TEKERZ
55 ~out 4043 - NerdHerd
56 bubble 5683 - RAVE
57 ~out 3812 - Bits & Bots
58 ~out 3681 - Robo-Raiders
59 ~out 949 - Wolverine Robotics
60 ~out 2910 - Jack in the Bot
61 bubble 5748 - Adna Pirates
62 ~out 4089 - Stealth Robotics
63 ~out 1294 - Top Gun
64 ~out 2928 - Viking Robotics
65 bubble 2521 - SERT
66 out 3693 - GearHead Pirates
67 out 2976 - Spartabots
68 bubble 955 - CV Robotics
69 out 4051 - Sabin-Sharks
70 bubble 2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
71 out 4682 - Brave Bots
72 out 2811 - StormBots
73 bubble 4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
74 out 4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
75 bubble 3024 - My Favorite Team
76 out 753 - High Desert Droids
77 out 2923 - Aggies
78 bubble 2990 - Hotwire
79 out 3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
80 bubble 3049 - BremerTron
81 bubble 3221 - KM Royals
82 out 3876 - Mabton LugNutz
83 bubble 5588 - Holy Names Academy
84 bubble 5450 - Intergalactic Order of Robots
85 bubble 997 - Spartan Robotics
86 out 2903 - NeoBots
87 bubble 2093 - Bowtie Brigade
88 out 4662 - Tribal Tech
89 bubble 3393 - Horns of Havoc
90 out 3268 - Vahallabots
91 out 4726 - Robo Dynasty
92 out 4180 - Iron Riders
93 out 4082 - Ranching Robots
94 out 2411 - Rebel @lliance
95 out 3070 - Team Pronto
96 bubble 957 - SWARM
97 bubble 3219 - TREAD
98 out 4030 - NullPointerException
99 out 2660 - Pengbots
100 bubble 4057 - Klamath Basin Robotics
101 out 3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
102 out 4512 - BEARbots
103 bubble 4127 - LoggerBots
104 bubble 956 - Eagle Cybertechnology
105 bubble 360 - The Revolution
106 bubble 5085 - LakerBots
107 bubble 4060 - S.W.A.G.
108 out 4542 - Titanium Talons
109 out 4120 - Jagwires
110 out 3636 - Generals
111 bubble 2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
112 bubble 3237 - Bionic Braves
113 bubble 1359 - Scalawags
114 out 4683 - Full-metal Robotics
115 bubble 2192 - YAK Attack
116 bubble 2374 - Crusader Bots
117 out 3223 - RetroBotics
118 bubble 4461 - Ramen
119 out 4495 - Tigers
120 out 4077 - M*A*S*H
121 out 4173 - Bulldogs
122 bubble 2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
123 bubble 2929 - JAGBOTS
124 bubble 3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
125 out 2148 - Mechaknights
126 out 4131 - Iron Patriots
127 bubble 4304 - Iron Rams
128 bubble 1432 - Metal Beavers
129 out 3131 - Gladiators
130 out 4104 - Blackhawks
131 out 5295 - Aldernating Current
132 bubble 2517 - Green Wrenches
133 bubble 3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
134 bubble 847 - PHRED
135 ~out 5497 - Foxes
136 bubble 1258 - SeaBot
137 bubble 3786 - Chargers
138 bubble 4692 - Metal Mallards
139 out 1571 - Error404
140 bubble 1899 - Saints Robotics
141 out 3712 - RoboCats
142 ~out 5198 - Knight Tech
143 out 3575 - Okanogan FFA Aggies
144 bubble 4579 - RoboEagles
145 bubble 3192 - Tiger Bytes
146 bubble 4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
147 ~out 2002 - Tualatin Robotics
148 ~out 2942 - Panda Machine
149 ~out 3684 - Electric Eagles
150 ~out 2927 - Pi Rho Techs
151 ~out 3831 - Da Bears
If we instead were to use InFlight’s suggestion to look at it like a 62 team event due to chairman’s winners who wouldn’t make it based on points, we would get this:
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 49
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 92
Best estimate: 63
{'bubble': 46, 'out': 41, '~in': 31, '~out': 18, 'in': 16}
0 in 1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1 in 4488 - Shockwave
2 in 1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
3 in 1595 - Dragons
4 in 2471 - Team Mean Machine
5 in 492 - Titan Robotics Club
6 in 2635 - Lake Monsters
7 in 3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
8 in 4061 - SciBorgs
9 in 4911 - CyberKnights
10 in 3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
11 in 2907 - Lion Robotics
12 in 3787 - Wild Robotocats
13 in 2046 - Bear Metal
14 in 5111 - SaxonBots
15 in 1540 - Flaming Chickens
16 ~in 4915 - Spartronics
17 ~in 2557 - SOTAbots
18 ~in 4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
19 ~in 3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
20 ~in 2930 - Glacier Peak Sonic Squirrels
21 ~in 5468 - Retro-bots
22 ~in 3711 - Iron Mustang
23 ~in 3826 - SkyNet Robotics North West
24 ~in 4918 - The Roboctopi
25 ~in 2147 - CHUCK
26 ~in 5779 - CB Tech
27 ~in 3968 - Higher Voltage
28 ~in 4654 - Mountaineers
29 ~in 4205 - ROBOCUBS
30 ~in 2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
31 ~in 2550 - Skynet
32 ~in 3588 - the Talon
33 ~in 2522 - Royal Robotics
34 ~in 2944 - Titanium Tigers
35 ~in 5495 - Aluminati
36 ~in 4513 - Circuit Breakers
37 ~in 1510 - Wildcats
38 ~in 3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
39 ~in 4980 - Canine Crusaders
40 ~in 2149 - CV Bearbots
41 ~in 1778 - Chill Out..!
42 ~in 3218 - Panther Robotics
43 ~in 488 - Team XBot
44 ~in 4132 - Scotbots
45 bubble 4681 - Murphy's law
46 ~out 3789 - On Track Robotics
47 ~in 948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
48 ~out 4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
49 ~out 4125 - Confidential
50 ~out 2733 - Pigmice
51 ~out 2555 - RoboRams
52 ~in 1425 - Error Code Xero
53 ~out 2412 - Robototes
54 bubble 3574 - HIGH TEKERZ
55 ~out 4043 - NerdHerd
56 bubble 5683 - RAVE
57 ~out 3812 - Bits & Bots
58 ~out 3681 - Robo-Raiders
59 ~out 949 - Wolverine Robotics
60 ~out 2910 - Jack in the Bot
61 bubble 5748 - Adna Pirates
62 out 4089 - Stealth Robotics
63 out 1294 - Top Gun
64 out 2928 - Viking Robotics
65 bubble 2521 - SERT
66 out 3693 - GearHead Pirates
67 out 2976 - Spartabots
68 bubble 955 - CV Robotics
69 out 4051 - Sabin-Sharks
70 bubble 2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
71 out 4682 - Brave Bots
72 out 2811 - StormBots
73 bubble 4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
74 out 4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
75 bubble 3024 - My Favorite Team
76 out 753 - High Desert Droids
77 out 2923 - Aggies
78 bubble 2990 - Hotwire
79 out 3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
80 bubble 3049 - BremerTron
81 bubble 3221 - KM Royals
82 out 3876 - Mabton LugNutz
83 bubble 5588 - Holy Names Academy
84 bubble 5450 - Intergalactic Order of Robots
85 bubble 997 - Spartan Robotics
86 out 2903 - NeoBots
87 bubble 2093 - Bowtie Brigade
88 out 4662 - Tribal Tech
89 bubble 3393 - Horns of Havoc
90 out 3268 - Vahallabots
91 out 4726 - Robo Dynasty
92 out 4180 - Iron Riders
93 out 4082 - Ranching Robots
94 out 2411 - Rebel @lliance
95 out 3070 - Team Pronto
96 bubble 957 - SWARM
97 bubble 3219 - TREAD
98 out 4030 - NullPointerException
99 out 2660 - Pengbots
100 bubble 4057 - Klamath Basin Robotics
101 out 3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
102 out 4512 - BEARbots
103 bubble 4127 - LoggerBots
104 bubble 956 - Eagle Cybertechnology
105 bubble 360 - The Revolution
106 bubble 5085 - LakerBots
107 bubble 4060 - S.W.A.G.
108 out 4542 - Titanium Talons
109 out 4120 - Jagwires
110 out 3636 - Generals
111 bubble 2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
112 bubble 3237 - Bionic Braves
113 bubble 1359 - Scalawags
114 out 4683 - Full-metal Robotics
115 bubble 2192 - YAK Attack
116 bubble 2374 - Crusader Bots
117 out 3223 - RetroBotics
118 bubble 4461 - Ramen
119 out 4495 - Tigers
120 out 4077 - M*A*S*H
121 out 4173 - Bulldogs
122 bubble 2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
123 bubble 2929 - JAGBOTS
124 bubble 3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
125 out 2148 - Mechaknights
126 out 4131 - Iron Patriots
127 bubble 4304 - Iron Rams
128 bubble 1432 - Metal Beavers
129 out 3131 - Gladiators
130 out 4104 - Blackhawks
131 out 5295 - Aldernating Current
132 bubble 2517 - Green Wrenches
133 bubble 3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
134 bubble 847 - PHRED
135 ~out 5497 - Foxes
136 bubble 1258 - SeaBot
137 bubble 3786 - Chargers
138 bubble 4692 - Metal Mallards
139 out 1571 - Error404
140 bubble 1899 - Saints Robotics
141 out 3712 - RoboCats
142 ~out 5198 - Knight Tech
143 out 3575 - Okanogan FFA Aggies
144 bubble 4579 - RoboEagles
145 bubble 3192 - Tiger Bytes
146 bubble 4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
147 ~out 2002 - Tualatin Robotics
148 ~out 2942 - Panda Machine
149 ~out 3684 - Electric Eagles
150 ~out 2927 - Pi Rho Techs
151 ~out 3831 - Da Bears
Since the FRC website has the results of who has qualified now (http://frc-districtrankings.usfirst.org/PNW) it’s time for some meta-analysis. Here’s how the predictions stacked up:
March 16 Predictions:
Predicted Actual In Actual Out
bubble 32 47
in 4 0
out 0 11
~in 27 0
~out 1 30
March 22 Predictions:
Predicted Actual In Actual Out
bubble 16 29
in 17 0
out 0 38
~in 30 1
~out 1 20
Between the registration / hotel costs and the really long driving distance for some of the Oregon teams there will be some declines. I would think the next three or four teams may get a last minute chance to attend.
I know the DCMP is a whole different beast (especially with triple the points), but any projections on what you think the point cutoff will be for World’s?
Also, it was nice to finally meet you in person Eric! Glad to see your team again, I’ve always enjoyed playing with you guys in the past.
It was nice to meet you as well. I always like seeing what 360 comes up with and congratulations on the win.
I’m afraid that I haven’t done any work on projecting the cutoff for Worlds. My gut is telling me that with with triple the points anything is possible but I don’t really know.