PNW District Championship Projections 2022

After three weeks of competition, it’s time to have a look at the field in the Pacific Northwest and see how things are shaking out. Every year that there’s been a PNW District Championship I’ve made predictions; here are the previous threads:

2014: 2014 Autodesk PNW District Championship - #9 by SoftwareBug2.0
2015: PNW District Championship Projections 2015
2016: PNW District Championship Projections
2017: PNW District Championship Projections 2017
2018: PNW District Championship Projections 2018
2019: PNW District Championship Projections 2019

I’m using the same methodology as in 2019 and that thread has more details but I can answer questions here.

Here are where I think the points cutoff is likely to be:

Points Probability
55 0.001
56 0.0055
57 0.0145
58 0.117
59 0.0625
60 0.098
61 0.0925
62 0.108
63 0.097
64 0.2
65 0.124
66 0.0305
67 0.0315
68 0.0095
69 0.005
70 0.001
71 0.002
75 0.0005

A quick explanation of the columns:

  1. Team number
  2. Probability of making the district championship
  3. How many more points would be needed to get to a 5% chance of making DCMP
  4. Pts to get to 50% chance
  5. Pts to get to 95% chance

Team # P(DCMP) Pts 5% Pts 50% Pts 95% Nickname
568 1 0 0 0 Nerds of the North
4125 1 0 0 0 Confidential
3786 1 0 0 0 Chargers
2471 1 0 0 0 Team Mean Machine
2412 1 0 0 0 Robototes
7461 1 0 0 0 Sushi Squad
5827 1 0 0 0 Code Purple
492 1 0 0 0 Titan Robotics Club
4911 1 0 0 0 CyberKnights
3711 1 0 0 0 Iron Mustang
2930 1 0 0 0 Sonic Squirrels
2910 1 0 0 0 Jack in the Bot
2522 1 0 0 0 Royal Robotics
1899 1 0 0 0 Saints Robotics
1540 1 0 0 0 Flaming Chickens
7034 1 0 0 0 2B Determined
2990 1 0 0 0 Hotwire
2046 1 0 0 0 Bear Metal
4089 1 0 0 0 Stealth Robotics
4488 1 0 0 0 Shockwave
955 0.996 0 2 5 CV Robotics
3636 0.982 0 4 7 Generals
2147 0.859 7 12 15 CHUCK
8532 0.846 8 13 16 Classified
5970 0.839 0 0 1 Beavertronics
488 0.773 13 18 21 Team XBOT
997 0.752 14 19 22 Spartan Robotics
8896 0.743 48 53 56 Wolf Tech Robotics
1294 0.727 15 20 23 Pack of Parts
4043 0.698 16 21 24 NerdHerd
3218 0.698 16 21 24 Panther Robotics
1595 0.698 16 21 24 The Dragons
2811 0.652 0 0 2 StormBots
957 0.634 18 23 26 SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs
1432 0.634 18 23 26 Metal Beavers
2521 0.566 20 25 28 SERT
753 0.471 23 28 31 High Desert Droids
8386 0.417 58 63 66 Th3_IRON_G0@+$
8303 0.417 58 63 66 G0LDEN_GAT0RS
8302 0.417 58 63 66 Beamer Team
5937 0.417 58 63 66 MI-Robotics
4918 0.417 58 63 66 The Roboctopi
3588 0.417 58 63 66 the Talon
3393 0.417 58 63 66 Horns of Havoc
2976 0.417 58 63 66 Spartabots
2927 0.417 58 63 66 GKHS Pi Rho Techs
2907 0.417 58 63 66 Lion Robotics
2906 0.417 58 63 66 Sentinel Prime Robotics
2097 0.417 58 63 66 Phoenix Force Robotics
1258 0.417 58 63 66 SeaBot
2557 0.415 25 30 33 SOTAbots
8248 0.389 26 31 34 ChainLynx
6831 0.389 26 31 34 A-05 Annex
4104 0.389 26 31 34 Error-4104
4513 0.367 27 32 35 Circuit Breakers
360 0.367 27 32 35 The Revolution
1425 0.367 27 32 35 Error Code Xero
3812 0.346 28 33 36 Bits & Bots
948 0.299 31 36 39 NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
6443 0.299 31 36 39 AEMBOT
6350 0.299 31 36 39 Clawbots
2635 0.288 32 37 40 Lake Monsters
1359 0.288 32 37 40 Scalawags
1318 0.288 32 37 40 Issaquah Robotics Society
4980 0.278 33 38 41 Canine Crusaders
4469 0.278 33 38 41 R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence DIvision)
4131 0.278 33 38 41 Iron Patriots
4061 0.278 33 38 41 SciBorgs
3673 0.278 33 38 41 C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
5920 0.269 34 39 42 VIKotics
5468 0.269 34 39 42 Chaos Theory
4057 0.269 34 39 42 Klamath Basin Robotics - STEAMPUNK
3674 0.258 35 40 43 CloverBots
3070 0.258 35 40 43 Team Pronto
5295 0.245 36 41 44 Aldernating Current
4692 0.245 36 41 44 Metal Mallards
4450 0.245 36 41 44 Olympia Robotics Federation
2733 0.245 36 41 44 Pigmice
1983 0.245 36 41 44 Skunk Works Robotics
3876 0.233 37 42 45 Mabton LugNutz
2926 0.233 37 42 45 Robo Sparks
4060 0.22 38 43 46 Bearcat Robotics
2903 0.205 39 44 47 NeoBots
5450 0.192 40 45 48 SHREC 5450
3663 0.192 40 45 48 CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
4915 0.161 43 48 51 Spartronics
3131 0.161 43 48 51 Gladiators
3826 0.155 44 49 52 Sequim Robotics Federation “SRF”
3024 0.148 45 50 53 My Favorite Team
8051 0.141 46 51 54 TinkRex
5941 0.128 49 54 57 Cast Iron Orcas
3049 0.128 49 54 57 BremerTron
8032 0.125 50 55 58 Redshift
5683 0.125 50 55 58 Hello World
4579 0.125 50 55 58 RoboEagles
949 0.121 51 56 59 Wolverine Robotics
3219 0.121 51 56 59 TREAD (Trojan Robotics, Engineering, Art, & Design)
3268 0.114 52 57 60 Vahallabots
6076 0.106 53 58 61 Mustang Mechanica
2929 0.106 53 58 61 JAGBOTS
6465 0.101 54 59 62 Mystic Biscuit
3712 0.081 58 63 66 RoboCats
4512 0.048 0 5 8 Otter Chaos
2928 0.048 0 5 8 Viking Robotics
2898 0.048 0 5 8 Flying Hedgehogs
2915 0.00025 3 8 11 Pandamonium
7627 0 25 30 33 Bearcat Robotics
6845 0 58 63 66 River Bots
6696 0 41 46 49 Cardinal Dynamics
6343 0 11 16 19 Steel Ridge Robotics
5975 0 32 37 40 Beta Blues
5588 0 18 23 26 Reign Robotics
4682 0 10 15 18 CyBears
4681 0 58 63 66 Murphys law
4662 0 10 15 18 Byte Sized Robotics
4309 0 10 15 18 4-H Botsmiths
4205 0 28 33 36 ROBOCUBS
4180 0 19 24 27 Iron Riders
4173 0 18 23 26 IMVERT (Mount Vernon Robotics Team)
4127 0 43 48 51 LoggerBots
3681 0 30 35 38 Robo-Raiders
2980 0 6 11 14 Whidbey Island Wildcats
2374 0 21 26 29 Crusader Bots
1778 0 6 11 14 Chill Out

7 Likes

Here is the same data in a slightly nicer form:
2022pnw.pdf (69.7 KB)
I’m afraid that I haven’t been able to upload the original HTML version, but CD doesn’t seem to accept HTML uploads anymore.

Love to see this thread every year, thanks for doing it!

I assume 8896 having a ~75% chance to make it is because they’re a rookie team and have the 10 rookie points despite having not played yet?

Correct. The model just sees that the team has ten points and two events coming up where they get to earn points. There’s no notion included about how good a rookie is likely to be or whether having your first event so late in the season is a good idea.

Basically what this is telling you is that a free 10 points is a big deal.

2 Likes

Actually, looking at the code some more, you found a bug. It appears that I was double-counting the rookie bonus for teams that haven’t competed at all yet.

2022pnw_2.pdf (69.9 KB)

So now it just thinks that 8896 has a 57% chance. And everyone who has competed moves up just a little bit.

Here are the results after another week of competition. I have also added information about what the odds are for teams advancing to the championship.
2022pnw.html.zip (7.2 KB)

2 Likes

Here’s what the results look like after all the district events have been played.
2022pnw.html.zip (6.2 KB)

Note that these odds of making the district championship don’t take into account that teams may decline, so it’s likely that at least one team which is listed at “0%” probability in here will get an invite.

This topic was automatically closed 365 days after the last reply. New replies are no longer allowed.