The methodology hasn’t changed, for details see the previous threads. Best of luck to everyone still competing.
Key:
in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way
Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 97
Best estimate: 52
{'bubble': 50, 'out': 25, '~in': 36, '~out': 37, 'in': 10}
0 in 1983 - Skunk Works Robotics
1 in 2522 - Royal Robotics
2 in 4061 - SciBorgs
3 in 3238 - Cyborg Ferrets
4 in 4911 - CyberKnights
5 in 5920 - VIKotics
6 in 3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics
7 in 2147 - CHUCK
8 in 3711 - Iron Mustang
9 in 4205 - ROBOCUBS
10 ~in 2928 - Viking Robotics
11 ~in 2557 - SOTAbots
12 ~in 3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR...
13 ~in 2930 - Sonic Squirrels
14 ~in 4726 - Robo Dynasty
15 ~in 4980 - Canine Crusaders
16 ~in 1425 - Error Code Xero
17 ~in 1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society
18 ~in 4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation
19 ~in 1778 - Chill Out
20 ~in 1595 - The Dragons
21 ~in 5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine...
22 ~in 4915 - Spartronics
23 ~in 3223 - Retrobotics
24 ~in 4488 - Shockwave
25 ~in 4077 - M*A*S*H
26 ~in 2907 - Lion Robotics
27 ~in 1258 - SeaBot
28 ~in 4125 - Confidential
29 ~in 5942 - Warriors
30 ~in 2149 - CV Bearbots
31 ~in 4089 - Stealth Robotics
32 ~in 5827 - Code Purple
33 ~in 5803 - Apex Robotics
34 ~in 2944 - Titanium Tigers
35 ~in 2046 - Bear Metal
36 ~in 2471 - Team Mean Machine
37 ~in 5495 - Aluminati
38 ~in 5588 - Holy Names Academy
39 ~in 955 - CV Robotics
40 ~in 949 - Wolverine Robotics
41 ~in 2926 - Robo Sparks
42 ~in 4513 - Circuit Breakers
43 ~out 4495 - Tigers
44 ~out 1294 - Top Gun
45 ~in 1540 - Flaming Chickens
46 ~in 3786 - Chargers
47 out 6129 - Shadle Park
48 ~out 2923 - Aggies
49 bubble 5468 - Retro-bots
50 ~out 4682 - BraveBots
51 bubble 5975 - Beta Blues
52 ~in 5085 - LakerBots
53 bubble 5937 - MI-Robotics
54 bubble 2910 - Jack in the Bot
55 ~out 4173 - Bulldogs
56 ~out 4180 - Iron Riders
57 bubble 997 - Spartan Robotics
58 bubble 4131 - Iron Patriots
59 ~out 3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob...
60 ~out 2903 - NeoBots
61 ~out 3712 - RoboCats
62 ~out 4608 - Duct Tape Warriors
63 bubble 3393 - Horns of Havoc
64 ~out 4683 - Full-metal Robotics
65 out 3070 - Team Pronto
66 bubble 4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In...
67 bubble 2990 - Hotwire
68 out 4120 - Jagwires
69 out 3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem
70 out 4512 - BEARbots
71 bubble 1510 - Wildcats
72 out 2148 - Mechaknights
73 bubble 3574 - HIGH TEKERZ
74 out 568 - Nerds of the North
75 out 488 - Team XBot
76 out 4030 - NullPointerException
77 bubble 753 - High Desert Droids
78 bubble 3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls
79 bubble 2374 - Crusader Bots
80 out 492 - Titan Robotics Club
81 bubble 4692 - Metal Mallards
82 out 2976 - Spartabots
83 bubble 3674 - 4-H Clover Bots
84 bubble 2412 - Robototes
85 bubble 2733 - Pigmice
86 bubble 3221 - KM Royals
87 out 6076 - Mustangs
88 bubble 5970 - BeaverTronics
89 bubble 4309 - 4-H Botsmiths
90 out 2605 - Sehome Seamonsters
91 bubble 4051 - Sabin-Sharks
92 bubble 4043 - NerdHerd
93 out 4082 - Ranching Robots
94 bubble 360 - The Revolution
95 bubble 4662 - Byte Sized Robotics
96 bubble 5941 - SPQL
97 bubble 3787 - Wild Robotocats
98 bubble 5956 - Falcons
99 bubble 948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group)
100 out 3693 - GearHead Pirates
101 bubble 3588 - the Talon
102 bubble 2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics
103 bubble 4132 - Scotbots
104 out 3268 - Vahallabots
105 bubble 4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS
106 out 3789 - On Track Robotics
107 bubble 2635 - Lake Monsters
108 bubble 2002 - Tualatin Robotics
109 bubble 3684 - Electric Eagles
110 out 3681 - Robo-Raiders
111 out 1899 - Saints Robotics
112 bubble 4681 - Murphy's law
113 bubble 5683 - RAVE
114 bubble 2811 - StormBots
115 out 4918 - The Roboctopi
116 out 4104 - Blackhawks
117 bubble 2521 - SERT
118 ~out 5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC
119 bubble 3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics
120 out 3575 - OK Aggies
121 ~out 5939 - Lakes Lancers
122 bubble 4654 - Mountaineers
123 bubble 2927 - Pi Rho Techs
124 bubble 3219 - TREAD
125 bubble 4060 - S.W.A.G.
126 bubble 3812 - Bits & Bots
127 bubble 2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats
128 bubble 3192 - Tiger Bytes
129 bubble 4461 - Ramen
130 bubble 3237 - Bionic Braves
131 out 3876 - Mabton LugNutz
132 out 5111 - SaxonBots
133 ~out 5748 - Adna Pirates
134 ~out 4127 - LoggerBots
135 ~out 2929 - JAGBOTS
136 ~out 847 - PHRED
137 ~out 3218 - Panther Robotics
138 out 2660 - Pengbots
139 ~out 1571 - CALibrate Robotics
140 ~out 5295 - Aldernating Current
141 ~out 2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium
142 ~out 2555 - RoboRams
143 ~out 2942 - Panda ER
144 ~out 957 - SWARM
145 ~out 4579 - RoboEagles
146 ~out 5198 - Knight Tech
147 ~out 1359 - Scalawags
148 ~out 1432 - Metal Beavers
149 ~out 2411 - Rebel @lliance
150 ~out 2550 - Skynet
151 ~out 3024 - My Favorite Team
152 ~out 3049 - BremerTron
153 ~out 3131 - Gladiators
154 ~out 3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio...
155 ~out 3636 - Generals
156 ~out 3831 - Da Bears
157 ~out 4057 - STEAMPUNK - Klamath Basin Robo...
That’s too bad about 3831. Looking at results manually it seems they were indeed a no-show at their second event too so I guess they’re toast.
Interestingly, there are way more teams this year that are actually playing both of their events in the last two weeks. That makes projecting the lineup a little more challenging than usual.
Yes unfortunately 3831 didn’t show up at CWU or AMV. They were no shows last year as well.
The reason that so many more teams are not playing their first match until week 4 is the fact that the OR events are weeks 2,4,5 this year and last year they were 1,3,5. So most of the teams that haven’t played yet are from OR. With the switch to 4 W. WA events instead of 5 and the E. WA events moving to weeks 1,3 instead of 2,4 that means more of the WA teams have played both of their events by week 3.
Chairman’s still automatically advances, right? So that would bring 2557 (~in), 4125 (~in), 1540 (~in), and 3574 (~bubble) to in along with 4911 and 1983 which are already in.
How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it’s probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.
I’m curious about some of the details of your methodology that I didn’t see in your previous posts. Are you taking into account dead points from 3rd plays and un-winnable awards? For example, as far as I can tell, Philomath won’t be giving out a Rookie All-Star award, so those 8 points are guaranteed gone from the district.
The methodology is based only on how many total points teams have earned at different events. It takes no other data whatsoever into account.
Here’s the basic idea:
-If you’ve only played one event it estimates an upper bound for points earned at your second as the best that any team has done at an event when one of them was equal to or worse than your first event.
-Similarly, it guesses a lower bound for points based on the worst a team has done that has had an event that’s at least as good as your first
After it has ranges for each team, it uses those to create ranges that the point cutoff could be. Then for each team, it compares their range to where the point cutoff could be.
So it doesn’t explicitly take into account how many points there are left. However having lots of plays left will change the estimate of where the cuttoff will be by making the bounds wider. So for example, a team might go from listed as “~in” to “in” without a change in either the number of points they’ve earned or the best guess of where the cutoff will be just because more teams have played events.
So for this year there are two things that are really a big deal as far as trying to get an accurate result:
-There are so many teams that haven’t played any event yet. At the moment, teams that haven’t played at all are assumed to be exactly average, which obviously wrong. In past years there’s only been maybe 1 team that didn’t play till the last two weeks, so this didn’t really matter.
-The official ranking page’s event results are known to be wrong. They haven’t fixed they issue about how they account for ties properly. They just give a bonus to the team’s overall total rather than correcting the event score. See here: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=146151. This throws off the estimates because the system is based on comparing event results.
Too hard even guess now, we will have to wait for Oregon City and Auburn to finish. There’s a lot of traditionally strong teams that need a good performance in week 5 to return to the district championships.
Team 1510 Wildcats won the Philomath Chairman Award and are officially “in”.
I agree that some traditionally strong teams have had an off year, but Eric’s method of estimating which teams will advance has a pretty solid track record (especially with only 1 week & 2 events left).
With many teams having had three or four weeks off between events; there has been lots of time to improve mechanisms and perfect code. With this year’s odd schedule; we might see some real performance improvements from first weeks scores/performance from the strong veteran teams.
Might be a year that modeling based on early results will have weaker correlation.