PNW Predictions - Week Two

PNW Predictions- Week Two

Rookies and Empty Comp’s

AMV has been cancelled. All predictions are pre-cancelization

This week we have an event, AMV, with 6 rookies competing, at an event already known for is lack of competitive teams. We also have an event that resorted to paying teams to attend the event, and now only sits at 24 competitors, at West Valley. Will they be void of fun? Certainly not.

For Newcomers

Welcome to the 2020 PNW prediction thread! PNW predictions is your one stop shop for all things PNW competition. In addition to a pre-season “What to watch out for,” and a worlds summary, we will be making weekly threads breaking down every PNW comp into easily digestible predictions. Each comp will get their top 8 teams ranked, as well as our winner predictions.

Your predictors are going to be @MikLast and @EricKline, both current Alumni-Mentors of PNW teams.

Miklast Bio

@Miklast Is a former drive coach and Chief Administrative Officer of FRC 4513, The Circuit Breakers, from Medical Lake, WA. He has been involved in FIRST for 9 years and is a current Computer Science student at Eastern Washington University. Currently, he is mentoring for the Circuit Breakers on strategy and scouting, and volunteers at FLL and FRC events across Eastern Washington.

EricKline Bio

@EricKline is a former Team Captain, Business Lead, and Scouting Lead of FRC 2412, The Robototes, out of Bellevue, WA. He has been involved in FIRST for 6 years, and is a current Supply Chain Management student at the Honors College at Boise State. He is now mentoring for the Robototes, and continues to be heavily involved in the FIRST community by running the FIRST Alumni Association at Boise State.

Post week 1, scouting data from both 2412 and 4513 will be used at relevant events to help enhance our predictions. If YOUR PNW TEAM has comp data, and you want to contribute to our predictions, please send your data to either Eric or MikLast.

Pre-Season

Week One

After you’ve read our predictions, throw yours bellow! Let’s start a friendly conversation and see who can predict the best.


Week One Recap:

Glacier Peak:

Glacier peak was, as always, unpredictable. It did, however, heavily suffer from week one syndrome, in that, a lot of teams that made top 8, and bellow, were struggling heavily with constancy. While the top seed’s were heavily contested, there was no question who the best robot at the event was: 2910. They were, in my opinion, twice as good as our second seed, 4911. The constancy in auto, the cycle times they could pull off, the last second climbs, it all came together for them.

They picked up 4911 as their first pick, no surprise there at all. And as soon as that alliance formed, it was instantly a race for second. There was heavy inter 8 picking, creating some strong alliances, and our finalists 6th seed alliance of 2976, 2930, and 4918. Both alliance’s sailed through their respective bracket, and despite a hiccup in the first match, the 1st seed was able to take it handily in the second finals match.

Congratulations to 2910, 4911, and 4173 as our event winners. 4131 took away the Chairman’s award, and 4915 took EI.

Clackamas Academy

We were told multiple times by multiple people to not underestimate 3674, and they really did prove themselves at this event. They finished as the 3rd seed captain, and picked up the 6th seed 4488. The first seed, who I think everyone saw coming out on top, of 1540 and 2471, struggled, heavily. They were offed in the semi’s by the eventual finalists of 3711, 1425, and 360. The bracket was a surprise. Sitting at Glacier Peak, checking TBA every so often, I was shocked when I saw the 1st seed go down.

The finals were fierce, but the 3rd seeded alliance took it in three.

Congratulations to 3674, 4488, and 6465 for winning the blue banner. Chairmans went to 6831 and EI went to 2521.


Week Two Predictions

AMV has been canceled due to covid-19. Read more here.

Auburn Mountain View

  1. 2046
  2. 1983
  3. 3218
  4. 488
  5. 948
  6. 3588
  7. 2557
  8. 4450

AMV has 6 rookie teams competing this week. Most in PNW would agree that AMV is one of the least competitive events in the PNW, and this year, more so. While it does host some top teams, most are mid tear at best, and will likely struggle with having a finished bot. We only have one team who has comp time coming in, giving any team who has a finished robot, that can be constant, an opportunity to make a run. These early events heavily favor done robots over complicated robots, so there will be an opening for lower teams to be a top contender, if they can work every match.

Top Teams:

There is no question here. While we don’t know anything about 2046’s robot, they will likely be taking the top seed. They have been so dominant year after year, their robots are undeniably top in the world. 1983 will likely be hot on their heels, with their fair share of dominance in the PNW, but they will likely fall short. Once these two team up in elms, there will be no stopping them, (unless 2046’s robo rio decides to die on them again). The third seed was contentious. I felt reigning world EL winner 2557 was best for the 3rd seed, but as they struggle with early events, the honor goes the Chezy Champs veteran 3218. Though, if someone can manage to rank over 2046 or 1983 (just by chance), we might end up with a much more interesting bracket.

Dark Horses

Reigning world finalists 948 is going to be coming in with high expectations, and the former largest team in the world is not one to underperform. They have had a fully functional robot for weeks, and so if it is working constantly, they could easily seed in the top 4. 2557 is a strong member of the PNW. Not only
a strong chairman team, they produce robots that year after year have proved to be top contenders by the end of the year. They have struggled in early events historically, but with no bag, that might change.

West Valley:

  1. 2910
  2. 4911
  3. 3711
  4. 4513
  5. 3663
  6. 6443
  7. 2811
  8. 2147

Unlike previous years, West Valley has a high amount of teams who are already experienced match play in 2020 joining them for the weekend, with 20% on their second event. This should bump match play up considerably for those teams, and chances are with its very small event size of just 24 teams we will see a few different fairly powerful combinations in quals. Along with this, of the teams with public information, another 20% are confirmed to be swerve drive, making it potentially the largest percentage of teams with swerve drives at an event. (hows that for useless stats?)

Top Teams
WV is also no stranger to out of area teams popping in, this year having both 2910 and 4911, Glacier Peak winners, both coming back for an early second event appearance and a shot at a 2nd set of banners for their shop. Coming from down south is 3711, looking to try and grab their first banner of the decade after their impressive finalist run at Clackamas just last week.

Dark Horses
WV has a fair amount of mid tier teams joining the event, with previous event winners 4513 and 2147 looking to keep the banners local, while former PNW defense kings 6443 are looking to shake things up. While all of these teams have good shots of making it far, the real question is if any of these teams can manage to seed #1 and put a real wrench in everyone’s weekend.

3 Likes

I’m most curious to see how different, if at all, 2910s and 4911s robot has changed since week 1. Even though their robots were incredible as usual, I saw some things which I definitely felt like they could improve on. Will be exciting to see.

1 Like

I predict match schedule will drive the final ranking since the field is small, and i expect to see a surprise or two in the rankings.

1 Like

Unfortunately, this game seems pretty not great at ranking teams accurately, given that one rp is impossible and the other is largely luck of the draw.

2 Likes

What specifically did you think could improve?

I don’t expect to see much mechanical changes, too risky in just one week.

2910 mentioned that their control panel mechanism wasn’t on for GP. I expect that to be on this week at WV.

2 Likes

Love the analysis you guys are doing on PNW, but wanted to call out something I noticed

The mismatch between numbers is strange, but there were also only 6 rookie teams scheduled for AMV this weekend.

On-topic, I think WV is going to get more viewers than it may have otherwise as a result of the cancellation and not having another PNW event against it. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes.

Not sure how I managed to say two number, and have neither of them be right :sweat_smile:

I know I had planned on watching twitch all weekend to see my team at AMV, but will likely be watching WV given the news. Disappointing, but hopefully it’ll be a good event to watch

I’ll be at home watching WV now, was scheduled to go help setup and then volunteer at AMV myself. Here’s hoping it’s the only one and FIRSTWA figures out a way to get teams their events.

I just hope bo more events get cancelled

Or else the PNW will be looking at a real crisis

1 Like

I really wish AMV could’ve gone ahead. I think we have another world class bot this year. A few contenders I was surprised weren’t mentioned for AMV would’ve been 4469 and 3238. At least we’ll see 3238 at Bellingham, assuming that event still goes forward as planned… and that we can actually go. 4469 is supposed to compete at Auburn Week 5, but if AMV was cancelled I’m guessing Auburn eventually will be too.

2910 has a control panel mech and 4911s climber should actually work this weekend (had issues during elims at GPK.)

If they do that, announce quickly and how things will be set up in case we need to switch to Bellingham or even a further away competition.

I think that just having people who feel sick stay out of competitions will reduce interpersonal interaction at events. Less crowded means less spread. Yes, some teams have canceled, and that just really complicates the solution of “march forward.” It’s still going to cause a lot of trouble to cancel an event and future ones, leaving the decision up to Week 1 events and such. Especially that us younglings are not quite as risk and we are instructed time and time over on how to contain disease, there is less risk of spread outside of the venue.

My school has advised against non-school sponsored gatherings off campus, canceled DECA state just this afternoon, the musical over the weekend, and has put Mock Trial state on hold. Hi-Q may not happen, and the administration has forgotten robotics exists (which is good because we can keep meeting). Mother nature can be quite inopportune…

I really think it’s an overreaction just because this is new and unusual. To explain, other events have high death tolls, but because they are “normal” or “everyday occurrences” (like road accidents, etc.) we get used to them. Another day, another death type attitude. Something new and out of our control causes panic.

I don’t think this is true, at least for officials. General public? Sure, there is a bit of hysteria. But for FIRST WA, King County, CDC or otherwise, I think the decision to shut down public events is logical.

They are trying to make the release to the public as slow as possible. If they don’t, the healthcare system will get overloaded (it already has). No point in needlessly spreading it was faster then need be.

Plus, this is a new, and unknown virus. Too many people getting it will cause FAR more panic, as no one knows how to self treat.

Also, personally, as someone who really enjoys attending robotics events (no matter the risk), but have parents who are very at risk, I do have concern for spreading it to them and being personally affected.

I’m sure there are other’s out there with family members they want to protect, but would need to attend nevertheless.

I mean, we’ll be starting the event with both climbers arms attached and powered, so thats something :smiley:

We did do a minor redesign on the climber brakes. Outside of that, we just took nearly the whole thing apart, replaced a few bearings, nuts, and bolts, and zipped it all back together .

4 Likes