Hey CD. I’m curious how likely everyone thinks it is that they will be able to compete next year. What do you think is the probability that your team specifically will be able to attend at least one official event in 2021?
My vote (25-50%) is being extremely hopeful and assuming that one random article I read that probably has no credibility that the Oxford vaccine will be ready to distribute by end of 2020. And then assumes that we somehow are able to distribute it.
All of this is a Longgggggg shot and I’m sure I have a better likelyhood of winning the lottery. (Which to some of us Im sure being able to safely go back to events would be like winning the lottery)
I wavered between 25-50 and 50-75 based on the lingering question: would FIRST do official events outside of the usual timeframe? They were willing to do post-Championship events last year before it all went south, and I could see them doing so again to enable as much access as they can swing. Two years without official events in select areas would be crippling.
I’m split 50/50. Given how Iowa’s been handling things (or more accurately, how they haven’t been handling things), I suspect it will be legal for my team to go to an event in 2021 regardless of the situation, and if the plan shown in the CHS slides goes through, I could see one being held here. I don’t know if attending said event will be a good idea, though. It depends on what March 2021 looks like, and I hope FIRST gives teams flexibility for registration and cancelling their registration.
If the season is delayed to late 2021, the odds of us competing drasticly go up.
Im not sure about other districts, but CHS already released a preliminary plan for the 2021 season. Its looking like they will try anything to “celebrate FIRST”, whether it be smaller competitions, remote competitions, or something else. Im sure we will have SOMETHING in 2021, but a normal 32+ team event is not on the table as far as I am aware.
I’m pretty certain that “normal” competitions will not happen in February. That being said, I would love to see “normal” competitions happen later in the fall as opposed to heavily modified or no competitions at the normal time.
I think the only thing that can really get competitions back to normal would be a vaccine, which as far as we know is still far off. Not only do we first have to develop a functional vaccine (I know there are some in the works, but nothing is really completed), but the whole logistics sides of things like scaling up and getting almost everybody vaccinated will take probably an even longer time. Heck, we couldn’t even scale up testing properly
So yeah… I’m very doubtful competitions will be returning to the majority of people in 2021
I voted 25-50% because I think you hit the nail on the head. If FIRST leaves it up to teams, districts and regions to decide if they want to/can play in 2021 I think we’ll see events somewhere although maybe just a few places.
If FIRST decides it’s a collective all or nothing where everybody gets a chance to play or nobody gets to play I’d say it’s closer to 0%. I guess it also depends on if we think a vaccine is coming out where maybe they do a consolidated season that starts later in the spring.
I’d like to see FIRST release what a worst case/most restrictive event looks like sooner rather than later. I think if we had that guidance at least we can have an idea if those events are even possible in various locations and start letting teams figure out if we think those events are “safe”. I put safe in quotes because I think there’s a lot of hot sports opinions on what that means.
Wanted to add a twist to the topic. As a team in Turkey, we can hope things will be pretty settled by the end of the year. (Most things here have returned to their normal state.) This makes me hope that we will be able to compete but the global situation tells the otherwise.
I wonder what the Covid situation is like in other countries doing FIRST like Israel, etc.? I think that is a cool thing to think about as well.
I don’t see a path to competition in 2021. Even if a vaccine is available in January, it will (by what I am seeing in the media) will require a booster shot to take affect. How long between booster shots? I dunno. Even if the school allows us to meet face to face, I don’t see the school department letting us travel to the one District Qualifier in our state, let alone traveling out of state. But, what do I know. Now where is that crystal ball I left laying around… Still crossing my fingers.
50-75 for the normal spring season. 90-99 for events in the fall/winter
Some CD users are wayyyyy too pessimistic for some reason. How can people really expect that there won’t be a single event next year, even if it’s in late december? That’s like 16 months from now, and I seriously doubt that corona will be an issue that far off.