Predictions Championship 2016: One Final Siege
Over the past two months more than three thousand teams have played more than twelve thousand matches of FIRST Stronghold. 17,320 castles have seen their outer works breached and 3,360 towers have been captured by the opposition. The low bar has been crossed no fewer than 45,176 times (and likely well in excess of that figure) and roughly 104,000 boulders have been scored into towers. The sieges have worn on for quite some time, yet one final battle remains before the conclusion of the war. Those three thousand teams have been pared down to six hundred, split among eight divisions, all assembled under one roof for one last time.
Stronghold has evolved to become an incredibly dynamic and exciting game, where every robot on the field can make valuable contributions. Alliances have employed a bevy of effective strategies to suit their members, and the overall meta-game has shifted as the season progressed. The two most typical formations employed have been 2-0-1 (two offensive machines and one defender) and a 3-0-0 offensive blitzkrieg, but there have been many isolated variants away from those schemes (including by some highly successful alliances). The distinctions between the offensive zone and neutral zone deployments have always been fuzzy (in particular given the necessity of breaching), but structured neutral zone play may become a crucial element on some alliances. For some alliances, “defense” may evolve into attempting to manage the ball economy, and it may lead to a new role as neutral zone ball managers in a 2-1-0 scheme for many some teams that earned their pay by rapid breaches and filling the low goal in past events. However, don’t write off positional defense, shock blocking, and old fashioned bumper-to-bumper hits just yet. When the tower was at 8 strength, top alliances could virtually guarantee a capture via autonomous and end-game scoring alone, but the two additional balls it takes at Championship may open up the window for some alliances to deny the capture via defensive zone play. Even when the capture isn’t prevented, there are plenty of high goal scoring machines that see their offensive contributions wilt when under duress. However, this does come at the additional risk of getting “caught” far away from your batter near the end of the match, especially if the defenders routes of escape out of the opponent’s courtyard is predictable. Overall, there’s no absolute answer for what the most successful or right approach for an alliance to take until alliance selection occurs. However, virtually all successful alliances will have one thing in common, a secret passage presence. Whether it be a defender in their own courtyard, a low goal cycler, or a neutral zone feeder; good alliances are going to have a team around their secret passage frequently to prevent the opponent from pilfering their balls at will.
With the change in tower strength to 10, the meta is guaranteed to shift once again. This change will have tremendous impacts across all eight fields, and is poised to shift how all but the very top competitors approach the challenge. Alliances that can consistently score 10 high goals with only two offensively focused members are the biggest benefactors, but they are far from the only ones impacted. Moreover, the change in tower strength may play a bigger role in qualifications than eliminations, which has the potential for making those super powered one-two punches even more difficult to construct during alliance selection. While it was always highly unlikely that any subdivision matched the capture rates achieved at the more competitive district championships (given that Championship doesn’t have the same restrictive on-field qualification requirements nor is the average experience of the teams as high), the change to a tower strength of ten assures the capture rate in qualifications will be much lower. Below is an analysis of how a tower strength of 10 would impact capture rates at DCMPs.
Event 8 Capture % 10 Capture %
INCMP 63.71% 42.74%
NECMP 59.52% 38.49%
MICMP 58.33% 39.46%
PNCMP 48.05% 25.39%
MRCMP 47.92% 26.67%
CHCMP 36.21% 12.93%
NCCMP 23.44% 7.81%
GACMP 17.07% 9.15%
While two extra balls doesn’t seem monumental, it shifts the dynamic heavily. Qualification schedules are always essential to high rankings in FRC, but the two extra balls will make the importance and variance of the schedules even more so. At DCMPs, powerhouse teams basically only missed captures when their alliance partners became incapacitated or otherwise failed to reach the batter. Now, with the exception of some elite low goalers, virtually every team will need consistent aid from partners to ensure the tower is weakened. While lower capture rates should make 1RP and 3RP matches somewhat less punishing on teams with alliance captain aspirations, reaching the top of a 75 team pool of teams is always difficult. None of the #1 seeds at the Week 7 DCMPs had more than 1 loss across the 12 matches, and all totaled at least 42 Ranking Points (3.5/match). The quest for the #1 seed is incredibly difficult at Championship, and that’s doubly true in games like 2012 and 2016 where the actions of other robots on the field can impact the final rankings beyond wins and losses. Some of the “bad schedules” for teams may not be apparent until they actually take the field and have an alliance partner throw a chain, brown out, reboot their radio, get stuck on a defense, or otherwise fail to reach the batter. Similarly, mid-level teams with fortunate partners who don’t die could find themselves rising to a top eight position. This extra layer of variance has the potential to shake up the standing across all eight sub-divisions.
Once teams have dealt with the pitfalls of qualifications, two more tournaments stand between them and claiming a banner on Einstein. Stronghold is a rough game, that has sent many robots to the sidelines early. Championship has always been a competition of endurance, ask any team with Einstein experience. The alliances that survive the brutalities of both defensive play and the castle’s defenses best will have a leg up. The victors leaving Einstein may put as many as 28 official matches of wear and tear on their machine this weekend alone. Plenty of teams have already had substantial repairs in far fewer matches than that, and others are replacing components and using improvised solutions after gruelingly long district or multiple regional schedules. However, like the past two seasons, there are no back-up coupons in St. Louis this weekend, as captains get to pick their own back-up (which can be subbed in and out for any match). While last year the substitutions were primarily used for changing up can battles, this year a whole new level of mind games becomes possible. During quarter-finals, defense selections are due before alliance captains provide their line-up cards to the head referees. In the semi-finals and later, they’re due essentially concurrently. In other words, alliance captains will have to select defenses for their opponent without knowing the three teams their opponent are putting on the field. While alliances at this level of play should hopefully have the ability to tackle any defense combination presented to them, defense positioning can still greatly impact sight lines, strategy, and autonomous efficacy. One of the under appreciated aspects of many elite teams is their ability to score from a variety of positions and defenses in autonomous, but that level of flexibility simply isn’t true for the bulk of scoring machines. Having a back-up alliance contributor that can shift the autonomous options for an alliance stands to be a great tool to counter opponents’ attempts to funnel teams into a smaller space to start the match. Rest assured, between mechanical casualties and strategic mind games, back-up teams will see plenty of action over the course of the sub-division and Einstein playoffs.
A panel of FRC veterans and experts were polled to help create a Top 25 list after the regional season. Seventeen ballots were collected from some of FIRST’s most respected minds, including Woodie Flowers finalists, former FRC champions, respected FRC commentators, and mentors of Hall of Fame teams.
A quick word about formatting to help you understand and interpret the rankings. The first number is the ranking. A “t-” indicates a tied ranking. The second number, in bold, is the team number. If a number in parenthesis follows, it’s indicating the amount of first place votes the team received. If there’s no parenthesized number, the team received zero first place votes. The number in brackets is the total number of points the team received from all seventeen ballots.
- **254 **(9) [409] - Agile turreted shooting design led to a pair of victories at intensely competitive California regionals
- **971 **(3) [382] - Stupendous high goal shooting and a consistent 2-ball autonomous propelled them to a win in Davis and finals in San Jose
- **2056 **(2) [371] - Though the streak may have snapped at Waterloo, OP’s consistent outer works shot puts them in the hunt for their first world championship
- **118 **(1) [341] - Defending world champions bested other elite teams for the top selection at GTR-E for their first of three wins this season
- **1678 **(2) [335] - Won three regionals on the #1 alliance in preparation for attempting to reach Einstein for the fourth consecutive year
- **1241 **[289] - Not being able to traverse the low bar wasn’t an issue as they won two of three regionals they attended, including splitting two finals against 2056
t-7. **195 **[275] - Won two district qualifiers as the #1 seed before their 2-ball helped them earn the 1st pick and win at NE DCMP
t-7. **987 **[275] - They found little trouble adapting their hallmark turreted designs to Stronghold, winning three regionals on the #1 alliance - **1114 **[268] - Simbotics failed to win a regional for the first time since their rookie year in 2003, but still has an elite scoring and scaling machine
- **67 **[257] - HOT somehow improved on a pair of #1 seeded district wins with their increased output and flexibility at MSC
- **148 **[227] - Incredibly effective shooter from all over the courtyard, winning twice in Texas and standing strong at a stacked Waterloo event
- **33 **[213] - One of Michigan’s finest scoring and hanging machines all season long, looking to bounce back from a surprising upset in the MSC Octofinals
- **16 **[188] - 29-2 record with a pair of rank #1 wins at both Rock City and Rocket City
- **27 **[155] - Not flashy, but consistent, flexible, and smart play helped them reach the finals at all four of their events, winning twice
- **5172 **[141] - 2016’s breakout stars claimed their first ever win in Iowa after reaching the finals at every Northern Lights regional they’ve attended since their rookie year
- **125 **[132] - Small robot putting up a large amount of high shots during their 2016 world tour, and added scaling ability kept them in the top of NE
- **330 **[118] - The Beachbots found a way to make their hallmark single-jointed arm design into one of the most unique machines in Stronghold
- **1519 **[109] - Consistency and their high ball auto over defenses make them a very potent machine
- **1024 **[98] - Accurate outerworks shooting allowed Kil-A-Bytes to sweep all four Indiana events
- **610 **[90] - Simplicity and reliability were also a hallmark of Crescent Robotics’ 2013 world champion
- **2481 **[76] - Stunning 32-1 record, with the high scores to back it up, heading into St. Louis
t-22. **973 **[67] - Improved performance in their Ventura win after a semi-final exit at CVR has the Greybots once again hitting their stride at the right time
t-22. 1986 [67] - Few teams are better at reaching the finals than Titanium, who claimed gold at GKC and silver at SMR - **225 **[62] - MAR’s most feared shooter won all three events they attended without ever having to take off their red bumpers
- **359 **[60] - Their consistent shooting machine only lost one qualification match at each of their three events, resulting in two wins and one semi-final exit
Others Receiving Votes
[spoiler]
133 58
341 57
4334 49
2771 45
3310 35
2451 32
179 24
368 22
3476 21
1538 17
525 14
1421 14
2013 13
3620 12
180 11
3309 9
4039 9
3824 9
233 8
1501 7
4587 7
2767 6
1983 5
1806 5
4488 5
3357 4
177 4
4678 3
842 3
230 2
3506 2
1836 2
868 2
2415 1
1540 1
1058 1
294 1
[/spoiler]
Never before having LF pollster been more divided about who the top team is, with five different teams receiving a first place vote. The parity among the top teams in Stronghold is truly remarkable, with not only those five, but several other teams beneath them having a legitimate argument for being the best team from the regional and district season.
Each sub-division will have it’s own prediction thread posted soon, but here’s a layout of how they will work. “Tips”, “locks”, “dark horses”, and “sleepers” will be named for each division. In this context a tip is a team to watch, with a solid chance of going deep. A lock is a team that’s guaranteed to do well, with a 50% chance or better of making the divisional finals. A dark horse is a team that has played very well all year but hasn’t generated a lot of attention and stands a strong chance to surprise a lot of people. Sleepers are teams that have shown flashes of brilliance but haven’t been able to put it all together yet, but have some potential to shine in St. Louis if they can play well. As always, if you don’t like the predictions, go out there and prove them wrong. Following all the sub-divisions, an Einstein prediction thread will be posted, taking a stab at who will emerge victorious and the style of play we will see. Ideally, all of these threads will be posted tomorrow, but the time crunch of FIRST releasing division so close to the competition makes it quite difficult. We know teams are already traveling to St. Louis, but bear in mind that we are in the same boat as you.
None of the Looking Forward threads are meant to be comprehensive, as there are simply too many interesting and excellent teams to consider in each division, but rather a quick taste of what’s to come. If you don’t like what you read, go out there and prove them wrong!
). They are a solid performer, very consistent, and will definitely be a top tier team in this division. Their match schedule looks favorable for them as well. Best of luck to all of the teams.