Predictions Week 2: Scaling Up the Competition
It’s still Tuesday night in Hawaii
As week two approaches, seventeen events are already in the books and an eighteenth is underway in Tel Aviv. So far this season, Stronghold has played out like the game of tower defense it’s supposed to be. In qualification, breaching the defenses is the name of the game, as the vast majority of alliances are aiming for 3RP matches (and often guarantee themselves the breach before focusing on tasks oriented with guaranteeing themselves the win). Ball offense picks up a fair bit in the playoffs, but so do defensive efforts. Many a great breacher in qualifications has found themselves as an alliance captain, but without a great way to distinguish themselves or create an edge in the elimination tournament. While alliances that can pot a few high goals have a bit of an edge, the real determining factors so far have been captures, shutdown defense, and scaling the tower.
Expect much of the same at most events in week two. Most matches will be filled with teams who’s primary mission is to cross defenses, and perhaps score a goal or two when convenient. Low goals will remain the more reliable option, especially when there’s traffic or defensive pressure in the courtyard. However, there will be a handful of events in which there importance of high goal quantity and efficiency may become incredibly important towards the end of the tournament. Watch out for what happens in finals at Toronto, Kansas City, Madera, Los Angeles, and Arizona for signs of how the later season may begin to play out. With powerhouse teams not needing all three alliance members to complete a capture, the defensive presence of the third alliance member may prove to be a difference maker at more than one of these events.
Alamo
All eyes in San Antonio will be on a pair of Texas’ top powerhouses in 148 and 624. The Robowranglers struggled (relative to their standards) the last time they attended Alamo, with some early season tweaks necessary to another catapulted machine in 2014. Even if it takes a bit for 148 to dial in their launching, their excellently packaged scaling device and plenty of driver practice should give them a distinct edge over most of the field. CRyptonite will be their foremost competitor, and quite possibly their most likely partner (despite the fact that 148 and 624 have never paired up in their history). The team formerly known as the Cinco Rancho Engineering Wizards have a history of working some impressive autonomous magic, and hopefully 624 can carry that over into Stronghold with their wheeled shooter. Beyond those two, a pair of recent world champions in 1477 and 2848 will be hoping to end droughts at the regional level since 2013 and 2011 respectively. Even if the pair doesn’t come out of the gate firing, they will almost certainly be adept breachers at the very least and it should position themselves well in the standings as a result. 2468 may not be quite as fast over the barriers as the top few, but they have a shooting machine with plenty of potential. While Alamo doesn’t quite have the proven depth of some of the other top tier events this weekend, there are still quite a few of Texas’ more hidden gems in the field. 3735 has been earning the respect of fellow competitors in recent years, but have yet to win an official award of any kind in team history. Conversely, 1817 has a well stocked award cabinet (especially if you consider individual awards, where they have 2 WFFAs and a 4 DLFAs), highlighted by a pair of regional victories. 3999 and 4063 are both bringing simple, and hopefully effective, machines that should be capable breachers and low goal scorers (with TriKzR4Kidz also featuring the potential for high goal shots). 3481 has seemingly stepped up their game this year, with a very attractive and ambitious design (albeit “low bar challenged”). 1255 will be an interesting test case for the value of opening category C defenses solo from the neutral zone, as that rare skillset may make them an attractive later selection for an alliance looking to increase their max potential score without dedicating multiple robot efforts. It may also be worth keeping an eye on 231 and 3005. Ultimately, this regional may be decided in qualifications, as if the top powerhouses are able to pair up, it might be very difficult to stop them (barring tortugas or electrical failures).
Arizona North Regional
2016 offers what may be the strongest regional in Arizona’s history. The event in Flagstaff is a veritable who’s who of powerhouse teams from all over the west. A bevy of teams from Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, California, New Mexico, and even some travelers from Wisconsin and Massachusetts will duke it out. Leading the Arizona teams are local legends 60, a rocker-bogie wielding HoF team 842, the zippy San Diego champs 2486, and relative young gun in the wooden 4183. Some of the lesser heralded nationally, but still very potent California teams will look to bring home some hardware. 192 and 846 both build technically proficient and aesthetically pleasing machines, and 3250 will be looking to recapture the magic of a strong 2015 season. 1339 will be venturing outside of Colorado for just the fourth time in their history, and looking to use their suspension to qualify for Championship for the first time. Conversely, fellow Coloradans 4499 have never failed to earn a Championship invite in some form in their short history, and are looking to build off a very strong 2015 to win on the field for the first time. 2996 will be hoping their compactly packed machine can start a new streaks of finals appearances, after 2015 marked the first year they weren’t playing in the last match of at least one regional since 2011. But if Cougars Gone Wild are compact, then 125 is practically micro-sized. The Nu-Trons’ robot wasn’t shipped from the Northeast to Arizona, but checked on their airplane in a Pelican case. But the favorites at the event are two teams that broke into the FIRST spotlight last season after quietly building up highly successful programs in previous years. 1619 should be more prepared for Stronghold than many teams, with a long history of tracked drivetrains, and are looking to prove their two wins in 2015 (including one at an absolutely stacked Utah event) weren’t flukes. 2122 lost to Up-A-Creek in Utah last year, but have picked up regional wins in five of the past six years, including a 2015 win a couple hours south in Phoenix. With the sheer quantity of quality machines attending this event, the elimination rounds should offer no fewer than three really potent alliances. It will be an interesting test to see if two powerhouse teams can acquire a defensive bot capable of overcoming a triple assault from a lower seed. Being able to get a slight edge via autonomous or the end game will be crucial in separating alliances.
PCH District: Columbus
After begging for districts and to get rid of 65+ team regionals, it’s finally here for the peach state and the first event is going to be a good one. Georgia teams are used to large events with long turnaround times between matches; the region will need to build their robots robustly. Up and coming teams are looking to make a name for themselves, and the winners of the Columbus event will definitely have deserved that recognition. The Columbus event will feature four different 2015 regional winners, two different 2015 regional finalists, and multiple teams who are growing and getting better year by year. 2974 looks to build off their best year yet with a strong showing of their catapult this weekend. 1261 is notorious for starting hot, and these Robolions will look to pounce on the competition from the start. 4188 started out the 2015 season with a last place finish at their week 1 regional, but rebuilt their robot to win their week 5 event as alliance captains; these space engineers look to fire on all cylinders from the start, because their competition schedule (3 back-to-back events) will not be forgiving. The Columbus event will be all about breaching and scoring low goals early on in the event though, and 1746’s robot design is designed to do just that. Where OTTO lacks in firepower, they make up for with their drivetrain’s speed and driver practice; a combination that may grant Kellen Hill the first 2016 banner in the Hill family. 2415 and 1648 both wield powerful shooters, but will start the event by focusing on breaching and the low goal before bringing out the big guns. The WiredCats will look to differentiate themselves in the later stages of the game with their unblockable outer works shot, and G3 Robotics will try to keep up in firepower with their articulating “cannon”. With such a loaded top tier, will it be possible for a middle tier team to break through? 4468 looks to prove so. The LINKS’ impressive reveal video was great, but the LINKS will need to focus on the breach and low goal if they want to have a chance at beating the other top teams.
Greater Kansas City
Even with another event across the state on the same weekend, GKC still looks like a stacked event. Missouri’s four most recognizable powerhouses will be in attendance, and it would be surprising if at least two (if not three or even all four) of 1730, 1806, 1986, and 4522 are not in the finals. Titanium’s elegant machine is a true beauty of engineering, but it’s their incredible consistency that makes them the favorite. 1986’s class of 2015 won 90% of the regionals they competed at, with the single loss occurring in the finals at Rock City last year. Team Scream may have the longest odds of the bunch, as their slick swerve driving courtyard sweeper might be better served in later weeks of competition. Or perhaps Team Scream’s All-In attitude could push the Stronghold metagame towards that point, if they can align with other teams to handle the breaching duties while they focus on the low bar and scoring goals. But ultimately all four of the favorites may be in trouble if a trend continues. Since 2009, at least one defending regional champion has repeated their victory at GKC. That’s good news for 1723 and 1785, who were both members of the 2015 Kansas City champion alliance (their partner, 1710, can be seen at Smoky Mountains in a few weeks). 2457 and 4959 will also be aiming to build off of strong 2015 campaigns. 935 will be looking to rebound after a disappointing Recycle Rush, but their experience in building custom drivetrains (including tracked ones) will serve them well in Stronghold. 1775’s low goal and breaching specialist machine should also be in the hunt, as will 1987’s slick-looking high goal shooter.
Greater Toronto East
Only a few select events will pack more high end firepower than GTR-E this season. Three of the top 1% teams in all of FRC will be taking the field for the first time… plus two more recent world champions and a 2015 Einstein alliance captain on top of that. The top handful of teams in Oshawa should be able to compete with just about anyone in the FRC world. Both 610 and 1241 embraced design tradeoffs, and it will be interesting to see how Crescent Robotics’ omission of high goal ability or Theory 6’s choice to build higher than the low bar pays off in the end. Both teams have ended up creating a defined role for themselves with those decisions, and seeing how that role fits into the high powered top alliances at this event is a matter of some intrigue. On the other end of the spectrum, 118 embraced their typical do-everything mentality, finding ways to package a bevy of devices into a low bar capable machine. And once again, the Robonauts pushed the limit of the end game with a novel solution. Plenty of focus will be paid to 1114’s debut as well, of course. The Simbotics have an argument for being the most consistent of all of the elite teams in FRC, and their 2016 entry gives little reason to suspect any regression from the Canadian powerhouse. While it will be insanely difficult to crack the top two alliances at this event, a handful of other Ontario powerhouses will hope to just that. 1305, 1325, 2013, and 4476 could very well create alliances capable of capturing the tower in the eliminations. The LF hivemind is also Looking Forward to seeing how 1285 managed to clone themselves in 2016. However, the most compelling story this weekend will be if 2056 is able to begin their tenth season without a regional loss. OP Robotics has won several events without the aid of the Simbots through their history, and their 2012 and 2015 match-ups against 1114 prove that 2056 can top elite teams. Even still, seeing how the top three teams align heading into the eliminations, and how much support they can get from later picks, will be a compelling situation. While nobody doubts that 2056 is capable of winning even if they’re denied partnerships with 1114 and 118, it’s doubtful that anyone in Stoney Creek is hoping for that scenario.
Arkansas Rock City
2015 Winners/Finalist Teams Returning- None
Really loves roller claws- 3937
Really loves polycord- 2338
Swerving over everything- 16
Unique concepts- 3310
Central Valley
Ultra slick scoring machine coached by a student- 254
Defending world champions- 1671, 1678
Tall shooters without scaling- 973, 1671
Ambitious rookies with plenty of driver practice- 5817
Slick low bar scorers looking to sneak an upset- 649, 701
Finally a game that rewards putting a shooter on top of a lift- 1323
Los Angeles
2015 Einstein- 330, 987, 3476, 5012
Looking to rebound after missing elims last week- 1197
Always great to look at- 399, 696, 4201
Should be in the mix- 3309, 4322
New York City
Rising international force- 4481
Trying to bring back their third consecutive win to England- 1884
Establishing themselves as a NYC powerhouse- 3419
Annual contenders- 354, 694, 1796, 2344
Orlando
Floridian Favorites- 233, 744, 1592
Looking For A Second Blue Banner this year- 1369, 4451
Hoping To Bounce Back From Lackluster 2015- 79, 180, 1065, 1902
Wildcards- 108, 1251, 1523, 1876, 2383, 3880, 4118
St. Louis
Favorites- 2451, 3284
Trying to live up to 2015- 1658, 2783
In the mix- 1208, 1675, 4329
Mexico City
Gunning for a three in a row- 2283
Established contenders- 3158, 3478, 4403
Rookies- 16
Greater Pittsburgh
Looking to refine their shot and qualify outside of FiM- 1023
Some of NY finest- 340, 1126, 1507, 3015
Stepped up their game in 2016- 1708
Perennial contender- 48
CHS District- Greater DC
Vae Victory in week 1- 1418
Should excel in the new format- 836, 1389, 1885,
Aiming to improve on opening weekend results- 4242, 5587
CHS District- Southwest Virginia
Northern Virginia #2 seed and finalists- 1731
Traditional VA powers transitioning to the district format- 346, 384, 1086, 1610
Scaled their way to the #3 seed in Haymarket- 2534
IN District- Tippecanoe
Event Name- You won’t find one that’s more fun to say
Week 1 veterans- 1501, 5188
Strong showing in the pre-season- 1747
Typically strong competitors- 135, 447, 829, 868, 1024
KISSophomores coming off Archimedes elimination appearance as rookies- 5403
FiM District- Kettering #2
Didn’t have to travel far from their last event- 5251, 6086
On the rise- 4130, 4362
Presumptive favorites- 469
Twins of Kettering #1 victors- 494
Strong contenders- 314, 2337, 3539
FiM District- Lakeview
Finalists last weekend- 3656
Gunning for their first win- 857, 2611
Strong district season in 2015- 4381
5000+ numbered teams- 23
FiM District- St. Joseph
Quickly becoming one of the best in Michigan- 4967
Solid young team looking to break out- 5069
Contenders aiming to rack up points towards MSC- 2474, 2767, 2959, 3452, 3620
NC District- Wake County Event
Actually playing this weekend- 900
Strong performances in Guilford- 435, 2642
Trying to translate NC regional wins to the district format- 2059
Up and coming- 5160, 5190
NE District- WPI
CT’s Power Players- 2168, 2067
Raising Stars- 4564, 4473, 5122, 1768
Post Lunch Power- 126, 175, 839, 1100, 2648
Hometown Spectrum of Simplicity- 190, 1735
NE District- North Shore
Ready to Storm the Castle- 319, 1058, 4905
History of Smart Simplicity- 58, 2084
Perennial Players- 133, 246, 4761
History of Defense- 97
PNW District- Glacier Peak
Hitting the Ground Running - 2522, 3663
Favorites - 492, 2930, 4911, 4915
Dark Horse - 1778
Traveling 2,000+ Miles - 568
PNW District- Wilsonville
Hometown heroes- 1425
Aiming high- 4488, 2471, 1540, 955
Up and coming- 2811, 997, 2521, 2990
