With more events and more teams competing than any other week so far this season, Week Four is in prime position to deliver some of the most memorable moments of 2009. Some events this weekend will sizzle with a very high level of competitions, while others will fizzle with few good scoring machines and lots of broken robots. While the mid-Atlantic events are packing in teams (Chesapeake, Philadelphia, and VCU all have more than 50), most of the events this weekend are smaller (6 events with 40 or fewer teams).
PREDICTIONS:
BOILERMAKER:
Despite being located in the heart of FIRST country (ie Indiana), Boilermaker hasn’t always had the prime cut of elite teams, and certainly not compared to Midwest or the Michigan events. This year, it’s looking to be one of the most top heavy events of the season, with seven of the teams in the 35 team field having already reached the regional finals at a previous event (four of them winning). Most of the field will still be populated with moderately competitive teams, but it will be hard for them to upset the top tier without aid. If two of the top teams pair up, lower seeded teams will have to rely heavily on strategy and the serpentine to take them down.
No team will have a larger target on their backs at this event than 45. The Technokats are bringing the only perfect* record still standing back into play. They blew away their competition in DC by utilizing their giant fan to help them pin teams, providing them easy targets for their large dumps. They should handle their business against most teams, but it’s hard to see them remaining unbeaten in an event where they’ll almost certainly play Wildstang, Cyber Blue, and Penn. Of all the juggernauts here, they’ll likely be the one who needs the least aid in the elimination rounds to win, but the serpentine could sting them if they don’t have secondary scoring.
*67 and 1747 have ties
The Kil-a-Bytes improved significantly after they converted from a shooter to a power dumper last weekend in Milwaukee. 1024’s shooter was not accurate or fast enough to be effective in Chicago, but even with their dumping design, their fate was not much better in the eliminations in Wisconsin (a 2-match QF exit). If they can improve their lackluster driving and continue to improve their scoring as a dumper, they could be a large factor (especially given their huge potential capacity). They have the potential to knock off anyone, but it’s going to be difficult for them to live up to it, and the semi-finals seems like the maximum they’re likely to reach.
234 is the often ignored second member of the winning alliance in DC. Cyber Blue seeded #2 and only had one loss all weekend (in their first match, with an essentially dead partner and their opponents super cell). Their speedy scoring, large capacity, and deadly human player (who was more than capable of scoring a few super cells himself) were huge reasons why the Technokats managed to remain undefeated during the eliminations. They are more susceptible to defense than some of the other teams at the regional, but when they break free they can score like anyone out there. After earning two gold medals in DC, 234 is looking to grab a third, but they’ll need a reliable and physical partner like 45 in order to maximize their abilities.
868 and 1018 were both finalist at Buckeye as the #2 alliance, and lost to 1747 in the finals. All three teams should be factors again at Purdue. 868’s small capacity will hurt them when playing against some of the bigger dumpers, but if they drive well they may be an attractive partner to any team that wants to funnel a majority balls to one scoring machine (like 254, 148, and others have done). 1747 is one of two teams at this event who didn’t lose at their previous event, and their shooter is likely to be the shooter at the event. While one or two of these teams should be in the semi-finals, it would be difficult for any to knock off 111, 234, or 45.
Wildstang emerged victorious at their home regional in Chicago, though they had the aid of a very good Winnovation team. 111 has the ability to score a lot of balls quickly and their swerve drive gave them the ability to maneuver in and around traffic better than most teams. Stang should be in the finals, but the match-up there will determine if they go home with another gold or silver.
ARIZONA:
Phoenix is playing host to a respectable event, that should have enough talent to have some exciting elimination matches. The depth is only average though, with a large portion of the event falling into the “middle class” of teams. Most second round picks will focus on defense and empty cells, and alliances capable of effectively using super cells should have a solid advantage.
HYPER was a fairly consistent scorer in Boston, but their shooter lacked the explosive scoring abilities of some of the top teams, which is part of the reason they were eliminated in the semi-finals. 69 is travelling across country to take another shot at winning gold, and should be one of the better scoring machines again in week 4. They shouldn’t have a lot of trouble reaching the semi-finals again, but it’s a toss-up beyond that.
812 was selected 4th and was a significant scoring presence in San Diego, but the Midnight Mechanics couldn’t hang in there with 1538 and 1388 in the semis. They should be a member of the top six alliances once again, but anything beyond the quarter-finals is tough to guarantee.
842’s bot certainly has potential with a solid capacity, easy to load hopper, and simple scoring mechanism. But if they don’t increase their fire rate, they’ll struggle to score even during qualifications. They’ll be in the eliminations, but it may well be as a defensive and human player asset rather than a scoring machine.
Team CAUTION has built a somewhat complex linkage, but it enables them to use the same rollers for both intake and scoring. 1492’s machine will be one of the more interesting scorers and it will certainly help them stand out from the crowd. Their small capacity will ultimately haunt them when they try to beat other quality machines, but they could reach the semi-finals.
The Bionic Bulldogs have not had the same level of play since Glenn Thoroughman left. Kingman will try to return to the spotlight in Lunacy, but 60 will need some help if they want another championship. They aren’t the type of team that can dominate games anymore.
Since the break-up of 64 after the 2005 season, 39 and 1013 have combined for five regional victories and one finals appearance. The 39th Aero Squadron was clearly the best team here last year, and looks to recapture gold. If any team can dominate this even, it will be 39. One has to wonder how the closing of the GM Desert Proving Grounds in Mesa will impact these teams.
VCU:
Celebrating its 10th anniversary, the Richmond regional will likely play out similar to how it always has. There will be a lot of parity, and it will very difficult for individual teams to excel. A #1 seed has not won this event since the first year of the event in 2000. Chesapeake being the same week and the addition of the DC regional has robbed a lot of talent from this event, and it is under 60 total teams for the first time in years.
The Brazilian Machine is attending VCU for the first time since 2001, and 383 wants to pick up right where they left off, with another regional victory. They’re one of the flock of archimedes-screw loaded shooters this year, but if they drive well and play smart they should be one of the top handful of scoring machines at the event.
422 seeded 4th and led an alliance to the semi-finals in Jersey, but had two solid scoring bots to aid them in the eliminations. Their multi-directional gravity dumper was able chew up the qualification foes, but it wilted against the defensive pressure and quicker bots in the eliminations. If they find an alliance where they aren’t the primary scoring option they could prosper, but their success is very much hinged on the alliance pairings.
612 also did very well in New Jersey, going undefeated in qualifications and captaining the #2 alliance to the finals. Chantilly isn’t the type of team to take over a match with dominant play and huge scores, but consistent scoring and autonomous tracking helped them edge out their competition for most of Jersey. They will be a solid entry at VCU, and if they can maintain the consistent play they should be an alliance captain for the second time this season.
The Robodawgs have won VCU three times, reached the finals once more, and won a FIRST Championship. 435 is one of the most successful teams at this regional, but they might not match that in 2009. They have a low-capacity shooter, and if they don’t drive it well it will likely take very good luck for them to earn another medal. They should still be in the eliminations, but they could face an early exit.
The twins, 384 and 1086 have two of the more vibrant bots at the event (especially 1086 in their retina scorching yellow), but their primary scoring mechanism might not be the most effective. Expect them to attempt to upgrade, and if they don’t, to be most effective in “puke mode.” They will likely be in the eliminations, but don’t expect to see either in the finals.
The Metal Jackets were among the most effective scoring machines in DC, and all three of their losses came at the hands of 45 (once in quals, twice in the semis). 2068 looks to be the favorite to win heading into the event, but will have to secure a quality supporting cast if they want to earn their first trip to the finals in their three year history.
BAYOU:
Bayou is small, with only 31 teams, and young (a median team number of 2080). Only a handful of teams will consistently be able to score more than 10 or 11 balls with their robot, and human players will be the most reliable scoring option for most alliances. The alliance that best utilizes the super cell may emerge victorious.
After a pair of finals appearances in 2007, 364 met a swift exit in the Bayou quarters last year at the hands of team 16. Team Fusion should fair better in a field without as much top level talent this year. They have a screw-loaded dropper, which should be reliable enough to score better than most at this event. Expect them to at least reach the semi-finals.
Team Combustion has a turreted shooter with front wheel steering that has a solid shot at winning a technical award at Bayou. But the high shooting angle, lower firing point, and lack of floor loading will hurt them on the playing field. 1912 will definitely earn an elimination spot, but they might not be playing past 2:00 PM on Saturday.
Despite Stephen Curry tearing apart the Gamecock’s defense in the NIT tournament last night, this USC sponsored team hasn’t lost heart. 2815 has one of the most impressive looking rookie machines out there this year, and looks to do very well in a shallow field at Bayou. If driven well, their power dumper will be very effective and one of the highest scoring machines at the event. They have a solid shot at earning a medal in their very first event.
624 will likely be the most effective shooter at the event, with a polycord loaded, turreted shooter. If they play smart, they have a chance at doing very well, and should at least reach the semi-finals. If they have another scoring machine and use their super cells effectively, they could go even further, and potentially grab gold.
CHESAPEAKE:
Also known as DC/BAE/FLR/NJ part two, more than half the field competed at one of those four events in week 1 and 2. This regional has been dominated by New Jersey teams recently, with five of the past six winners coming for NJ (and none from Maryland). Like several other events this weekend, there is going to be a lot of parity towards the top, and most of the elimination teams will be pretty close in ability. A few teams look poised to try and distance themselves from the pack, and it is possible (under ideal conditions) for a powerhouse alliance to form, but very hard to guarantee.
After being picked, then “unpicked,” in the BAE alliance selection fiasco, 467 wants redemption. The Duck Tape bandits can score quickly and efficiently, and it would take a major scouting breakdown for them to be left out of the eliminations again. It is unlikely they’ll be able to take down any powerhouses though, and anything past the quarterfinals would be gravy.
Teams like 1511, 768, 1727, 339, 229, and 134 will make up much of “the pack” of scorers. Each should figure into the eliminations somehow, but none looks poised to lift an alliance on their shoulders and carry them into the finals. If the top tier teams are broken up, one of these teams could leave with gold.
2377 almost went undefeated in qualifications at DC, losing in the very last match of Saturday morning. They have skilled drivers, a tiny, yet incredibly accurate human player, and a knack for avoid being scored on. Yet, they’ll have to dramatically increase their scoring speed if they want to be a major factor again in Annapolis.
The Robolions captained an alliance to the semi-finals in DC, and 2199 wants to get further this time. They have a great human player, and a robot that can score mid-sized payloads very quickly. If they can maintain a high level of play, they’ll be one of the top three or four machines and could reach the finals.
Gompei slipped to the 4th selection in Beantown, but proved they were the real deal by winning. 190 has a crabbing, high-scoring, power dumping machine that should be a top tier team in Chesapeake. A semi-final appearance is all but guaranteed, and if they can get the kind of support scoring that 61 was able to provide, they could notch another banner to their resume.
40 couldn’t top the Rhode Warriors and Buzz in the finals in New Hampshire, but their swerve-driven, dual-screw machine is a definite threat in Maryland. They’re very hard to pin and score on, and has a large capacity, so they’re very dangerous in any match. If they can drive smart and improve upon their weaknesses, they’ll have the best odds at taking home gold.
WATERLOO:
After a couple stale years initially, Waterloo exploded into an offensive firestorm in 2007 and retained some of that in 2008. Yet, in 2009 Waterloo is returning to its previous form. With only 26 teams, the serpentine will hit harder here than any other event this season, and not a single one of those teams hails from the United States. Beyond that, not even the Canadian powers are showing up:
When you talk about the elite Canadian teams, you talk about 1114, 2056, 188, 610, 1503, 1241, 772. Only one of them is here. Even the teams who’ve had marginal success over the years, 843, 1006, 771, 1547, 2386 aren’t here.
The top ranked alliances are likely going to have next-to-dead robots at their third partners, and very few teams will be reliable scoring machines. Brace for impact, Lunacy is going to come crashing down to the surface here. This event will be painful to watch.
There is little doubt who’s the favorite headed into Waterloo. 2056 has won all four regionals, including twice in Waterloo, in their history… but they’ve also been paired with 1114 all four times. Without 1114 in attendance, the Patriotics will have a chance to win without the Simbots for the first time. However, the serpentine could hammer them if they excel in qualifications, and they are likely to be targets of heavy defense by the other teams. Luckily for them, human player scoring and one big dump from their belt driven dumper is likely all they’ll need to win many matches (even in the elims).
If 148 can win while being tripled teamed in Dallas, 2056 can win in Waterloo.
2609 started slowly, but improved in Rochester, but still failed to make the eliminations. If they have worked out all the kinks they’ll likely be one of few effective scoring machines. Yet, without ground loading, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to control matches on their own.
2166 has made the Championship eliminations each of the past two years, a feat that only 40 teams can claim (and that list doesn’t include 16, 190, 234, 173, 503, or 65). They have a power dumper, somewhat similar to what 973 won with in Long Beach, and should be one of the few machines capable of scoring effectively and regularly. They should be one of the first few bots off the board come alliance selection.
In a field where human players are going to score most of the points and super cells will be worth a very large portion of match scores, a bot capable of holding a ton of balls and delivering them to the payload specialists might not be a bad choice. 2200 is just that, and could be effective when paired with quality human players.
**1310 **had coming out year last year, getting to the semis at both Canadian events. With the weaker field, this could be their chance.
While they wont blow anyone away, 1310’s simple scoring mechanism might be exactly what’s required to do well in this field. 1310 has a single conveyor feeding up to a launcher. 781 is in a similar boat, with a rear mounted shooter/dumper fed by a conveyor, though theirs is wider and has a larger capacity. If either score regularly, advancing to the finals is certainly not out of reach.
MICHIGAN - DETROIT:
With more than 80% of Michigan teams already competing at least once, the standings for reaching the state finals are starting to heat up. Many teams will be looking to improve their odds and seal the deal in Detroit. Detroit will feature a handful of very strong teams, but is one of the weaker Michigan districts this season. Just like the Detroit regionals of previous years, defense will be a big factor, and the top scoring teams will have to wade through oodles of it in order to win.
Foley Freeze played terrificly at Kettering in week 2, and was one of the best scoring machines there. Unfortunately for 910, a quarter-final exit and weak qualification seeding hurt them, and they only earned 23 points for the event, leaving a lot of work to be done if they want to feel secure about earning a spot in the state Championship. Another middle-seeded event and quarter-final exit would put them right on the edge, but if they can reach the semi-finals they should be able to lock up a bid.
The Huskie Brigade fell to the 2nd round of the draft, but their finals appearance in Kettering put them in a good position here in Detroit to lock up an invite. 65 weren’t the best driving machine at times (especially early in qualifications) and would ocassionally have hopper issues, but they should look even better in Detroit. Expect them to be an early selection, if not a captain themselves, and to reach at least the semi-finals.
201 has one of the more entertaining bots to watch, with their ejection method spewing balls out the top very rapidly. However, it would often result in a lot of missed shots for the FEDS, which was part of the reason they lost in the semis at Traverse City. They’ll be in the eliminations for sure, but their success will hinge on their partners.
On the upper edge of the bubble with 29 points, the Robostangs will likely only need a .500 qualification record and an early 2nd-round selection to have a solid shot at the state championship. However, if **548 **falls to the late 2nd round and become a defensive specialist (which was their forte at Kettering), they might ultimately have more success in the eliminations.
ST. LOUIS:
The finals here the past two years have featured 217 and 148 against 1444 and 45, each alliance taking it once. But in 2009, only 1444 returns here from that group. The event does have some high profile replacements though, and should feature some very exciting alliances and matches. It doesn’t quite have the depth of some other events, and will be rather top heavy. If two of the top tier bots team up, it will be difficult to stop them. It’s likely that only two or three alliances will have legitimate chances at winning the regional (barring technical failures).
The Bomb Squad didn’t perform up to their desires in Chicago, getting bounced in the quarter-finals and never really emerging as a high-scoring machine. 16 wasn’t satisfied with their result, and modified their scoring mechanism for a hiring rate of fire (and shorter range). They should see an improved result in Missouri, and should at least reach the semi-finals.
1208 has a simple power dumper, but with a large enough capacity to make it very dangerous. They were selected first in Kansas City and were one of the most explosive scoring machines at the event (and managed to score 141 in a qualification match). They have a chance at upsetting some of the bigger names in the eliminations if they have another scoring machine paired with them to help remove defensive pressure.
2775 is another impressive looking rookie team, with a basket on an elevator allowing them to use their roller intake to score. Their hopper is smaller than some of the other scoring machines at the event, which will place even more influence on their driving ability. If they avoid any DeWalt problems (figures that Team DeWalt is using them), they should do well, but they will likely be a clear margin behind the top teams.
SWAT went undefeated in the quals at KC, and led the #1 alliance to the Championship. 1806 is looking to win two regionals for the second year in a row, but this will the be the tougher than any event they’ve won so far. Their spiral loaded shooter has the potential to score well, but it doesn’t have the ability to take over matches on its own. They can provide reliable scoring to compliment an explosive scorer, but it’s unlikely they’ll be able to earn another medal.
Week one last year, they were on the #1 alliance at the Midwest regional, and were beaten by the #8 alliance in the quarter-finals. Week one this year, they were on the #1 alliance at the Midwest regional, and were beaten by the #8 alliance in the quarter-finals. Week four last year, they came back even better and won the West Michigan regional. Week four this year…
Beatty’s back. And Beatty wants to win. After the stunning upset in the QFs in Chicago, team 71 is going to be even better than they were in Chicago (note: they still have the highest OPR of any team in FIRST), which is a frightening thought. If you want to win this event, you’re going to have to go through Team Hammond. They’ll be playing in the final match of the regional, and their performance will decide on who wins.
MICHIGAN - LANSING:
Hit the lights. Cue Thunderstruck. Get Pumped. This event could very well decide which team heads into the state Championship with the higest point total in Michigan. 67 currently leads the pack with 74 points, but 245 is not far behind with 71. A few other teams who are not here (namely the Thunderchickens, who have 73) have a chance to nabbing the regular season title, but if either HOT or the Adambots perform as well here as they did at their previous events (#1 seed and champs), or even close to it, it will be very difficult to pass them in the standings. There are a number of other teams who want to stop them though, and several will have legitimate chances.
HOT is not only in the discussion for the best team in Michigan, but the best team in FIRST so far in 2009. 67 will try to defend their undefeated record just a week after they last took the field. They did need support from the 217 to overcome the strong defensive efforts in the eliminations last week, so there’s no guarantees here. Expect an even better individual performance out of HOT, but a loss or two during qualifications. They should be invited to the #1 alliance, and should reach the finals for the second straight week.
RUSH put themselves in a good position to make the state championship in Kettering, but the 28 points they earned there still leave work to be done. 27 wasn’t terribly effective at scoring moon rocks, but found a strength in their ability to move empty cells and score super cells. Expect them to modify their shooter to improve performance, but they will still be a clear cut below some other scoring machines. They’ll likely be selected in the mid-late first round, and their finish will likely be hinged on their partners and role in the alliance.
The Martian twins both made the eliminations in Kettering, but 70 was selected earlier and made it further (they won) than 494. More Martians were clearly better than the Martians last time we saw them, and it’s possible that it stays that way this weekend (though the gap will get much closer). 70 has a solid chance of passing 67 or 245 in the standings if they can win this district and those teams don’t, but they would likely have to pair with one of those teams in order to achieve another victory. 494 hasn’t secured a spot in the state finals yet (22 points in Kettering) and will likely need either to seed in the top 8 or make a semi-final appearance to feel comfortable about reaching Ypsilanti.
The Juggernauts have all but locked up an appearance in the state finals (should only need 3 or 4 wins in the qualifications to have a good shot, and a .500 record would guarantee it). 1 was selected into the 5th alliance in Kettering and between their human player and robot scored enough points to reach the semi-finals (where they took the eventual champs to 3 matches). They have one of the better chances to knock off one of the favorites, and can fit well into multiple different alliance configurations. A finals appearance, or even a victory, is not out of the question.
The Adambots are as good as they’ve been since 2005 (when they captained the #1 alliance on Archimedes to Einstein), but they are far from invincible. Though very consistent and having the ability to score large payloads, they never topped 100 points at Kettering, and only topped 80 twice during qualifications. 245 will definitely be contenders, and one of the top scoring and overall teams in Lansing, but anything past the semi-finals will take a good alliance partner (which they are more than capable of acquiring).
PHILADELPHIA:
The 11th Philadelphia regional is returning to its origins at Temple University. It is both the oldest in terms of the age of the regional, but the age of teams (a median team number of only 318.5 and barely 1/3 of the regional is 3-digit teams). It has also created more buzz than any other event this season, with roughly three times the “tips” of other high profile events featuring information on no fewer than fifteen different teams flowing in.
And for good reason, five teams attending have already won regionals (56, 222, 341, 1507, 1923), and three more have reached regional finals (316, 834, 1279). The fact that list doesn’t include the two highest profile (and historically most successful) teams, 103 and 365, is testament to the depth of this field. No team here is an early favorite to make Einstein, nor is any team a clear cut favorite at this event.
Despite the age and depth of the field, Philly has always been known for its defensive play (part of the reason why 84 has won the last two regionals), and defense will certainly be present both in the qualification and elimination rounds. Several good scoring machines will be left out Saturday afternoon, and only the ones who can play through defense will excel.
For the first time since 2004, the Cybersonics enter Philadelphia without a regional championship already in hand after losses in the semis in both New Jersey and Florida. 103 improved significantly after their transformation to a dumper, and don’t want to end 2009 without a blue banner. But they’ve never been able to overcome the defensive style of play of this regional, with their only Philadelphia victory coming in 2001 (which was played 4v0). They’ll be a top 3 selection into the elims, but it will take two very strong partners and great strategy for them to reach the finals.
365 started off slowly in DC, but was one of the better scoring machines by the time the eliminations began. Their large capacity and ability to dump a lot of balls quickly makes them very dangerous, but they struggled a bit against the quicker, more mobile teams. They’re defending champs and have typically been able to deal with defense better than most teams, and figure to be a definite contender in Philadelphia.
A number of other teams are still looking for a regional victory this season and should have a shot here. 816, 272, 1279, and 1153 each have very capable scoring bots who made the eliminations at their previous events. Each of these teams is more than capable of putting up large scores and winning a match or two without a lot of help, but it would be hard for any to beat the great teams. Of the bunch, 816 probably has the best odds to pull off some upsets and earn a trip to the finals.
1923 was one the feel good stories of week one, jumping from a team who had never reached the eliminations to topping team 25 in the finals to win the New Jersey regional. But this team is not without flaws.
While putting up big numbers at NJ, I don’t believe anybody mentioned how easily this team could be pushed around.
The MidKnight inventors are vulnerable to defense and physical play, which is part of the reason they lost 3 qualification matches. When left alone, they are incredibly dangerous, which will make them a definite factor in every match. If they are on an alliance, like theirs in Jersey, where they aren’t the primary scoring threat their odds will improve greatly, but even then they will still have to surpass a much deeper and more physical field than in Jersey.
The Tigertrons roared through Pitt last week, capturing their first regional win ever. 222 will try to continue their roll by completing the Keystone State Sweep, but Philly is a completely different animal.
222 did need some significant scoring help from their partners 1218, but the Philly natives won’t be at the Philly event to help out the Tigertrons again. 222 will be a definite factor, but the chances they are on the #1 alliance again are much slimmer. A semi-final appearance seems most likely, but if they meet one of the top tier teams in the quarters their event could be ended sooner.
(yes that’s a good thing)
. I’m glad we entertain you when we play (hopefully the judges will be entertained too :p).