Predictions Week 5: Raising the Flag
Week four is in the books, and 60% of the Stronghold events are now behind us. Chesapeake and Indiana have wrapped up their district events, and are now looking forward to their district championships. North Carolina and the Pacific Northwest are playing their final events out this weekend, and most of the teams in Michigan, New England, and the Mid Atlantic will have a decent idea of their district championship status by the close of action on Sunday. Even most of the regional action is wrapping up, with only six regionals scheduled for next weekend.
The siege engines have only grown stronger as the season progresses. Qualification capture rates nearly doubled between week 3 and week 4, reaching 11.63%. The increase in elimination rate was even greater in raw percentage (albeit less proportionally), climbing 12.22% compared to week 3. There’s now a capture in one in three playoff opportunities. As the capture becomes increasingly common, so does the impact of the fourth ranking point in qualifications. Breaches have been a significant factor in rankings since week 0.5, securing qualification captures have helped teams lock down alliance captain spots. With only a 9-2-1 record, 319 was still able to average 3.08 ranking points per match last weekend at UNH, helping them secure the #1 seed over a pair of 11-1 teams (2370 and 1519). They managed that on the backs of 7 qualifications captures. 971 also overcame an additional loss to secure the #1 seed in Sacramento, but by far the easiest path to the top of the standings is by having the best win/loss record. Ranking point averages of 3.0 or higher are becoming increasingly standard across the board for highly seeded teams. 1241, spurred on by a 12-0 record, pushed it all the way to 3.5 RP/match at North Bay. These types of performances are going to become more and more necessary as the season progresses, particularly at the uber-competitive regionals this weekend, district championships, and ultimately in St. Louis.
Midwest
With the regionals in New Hampshire and New Jersey folding into district formats in recent years, the Midwest Regional stands poised to become the first regional event to celebrate its 20th anniversary. Obviously few events have anything close to the history and importance in FIRST culture as Midwest. It’s where Wildstang, Team Hammond, HOT, the Bomb Squad, Chief Delphi, and RUSH cut their teeth before becoming FRC legends. It’s where one-on-one battles were fought between future world champions in the days before alliances existed. It’s where championship alliances were composed entirely of legacy and Hall of Fame teams. It’s where seemingly unbreakable high scores were set. It’s where file card drives and chokehold strategies were revealed. It’s where WFAs like Andy Baker, Ken Patton, Bill Beatty, Dave Verbrugge, and Kyle Hughes competed in the days before the Woodie Flowers Finalists Award existed. While the venue has changed over the years, the Midwest Regional is hallowed ground in FIRST lore.
This year’s edition of the Midwest regional is primed to be an intense event. 32 of the 52 teams have already competed this season, including a bevy of competitors at the Central Illinois event. With none of the CIR champions in attendance, and only one blue banner claimed among the competitors in 2016, this event should be wide open. 111 and 1625 have the longest histories as elite robot building programs in FRC at the event. Both showed potential in Peoria, but both were knocked out in the semi-finals. 4143 was eliminated a round earlier, but their slick swerve and high shot draw the eye of the crowd (and defenders). Of the Central Illinois veterans, Argos’ (1756) batter shooter and Robot Casserole’s (1736) low goal cycler lasted the longest, reaching the finals together.
Two other teams reached the finals at their last even, 379 and 4329. The RoboCats are among the most established shooters at the event, but will have to continue fine tuning their alignment and release time to overcome elite scoring machines. Lutheran Robotics played a complimentary role on their St. Louis alliance, but will attempt to take on more responsibilities in their second outing. The lone previous winner in Chicago is 2451. Pwnage is arguably the most proven shooter, especially at range, among the field of competitors, and if they can tweak their scaling mechanism to get their bumpers a tad higher, their end game potential should give them a distinct edge. There are plenty of other teams aiming to reach the finals for the first time this season. 2015 Einstein veterans 2338 are a dangerous high goal scorer when they can set up on the batter. 375 reached the #1 seed in New York via breaching consistently. 2062 should be among the most consistent low goal scoring machines at the event after an impressive outing in Wisconsin.
South Florida
South Florida returns to Week 5 after its’ small stay in Week 1 last year, it also will be at a new venue moving an hour north to West Palm Beach. Sometimes thought of as Orlando 2.0, South Florida has quietly forged its’ own identity, and this year the locals will be joined by teams from 9 other states, and 3 other countries. Some interesting stats about the teams for this event; among the 60 teams 45 of them have already competed with 30 of them having played in eliminations. Among the 30, 10 have played in the finals with 6 winners. Most telling of all there are 7 teams that can produce a Wildcard down in South Florida.
The two favorite local teams are 179 and 180 and you couldn’t find two more different robots that compete so similarly. 179’s machine with its’ actuating, variable hood, vision targeting turret has already won Palmetto but is coming off a tough loss in the Semifinals of Rocket City; hopefully they worked out the bugs that kept them out of the finals. While 180’s Brave Sir Lobin, with its’ Spoon-a-pult was using a photon cannon and achieving similar results to their -1 counterpart at Orlando. These two sister teams have also teamed up at the last two South Florida Regionals, winning the regional in one of them. However we can’t count out the coalition from the North, the largest of the seven kingdoms. 11 and 2590 have three MAR district victories in 2016 between them. Both teams are capable of shooting high, but have found more consistent success via breaching and the low goal. Both teams will be a force to be reckoned with on and off the field, and a culture changing award may earn one of them a ticket straight to Championship. 694 won the New York City Regional, and could claim a second banner if they spent some of their time off improving their shooting under defensive pressure.
348 is an interesting case in South Florida, they have been in the finals of this regional 2 years in a row and are looking to finally win it. 2383 was one of the better scoring machines in Orlando but fell to the last pick at Finger Lakes it will be interesting to see which Ninjineers show up in West Palm. 744 will be looking to improve on their first performance but will need to work on their accuracy and alliance partner synergy. 1065 is a team that improves every time they compete and are looking to finally win a regional. 1251 was an alliance captain at Rocket City and are quite skilled at breaching defenses expect them to seed high.
1523 is coming off the worst performance in their history, ranking second to last in ranking in Orlando but have done a lot in their off time to make their machine Mega Awesome. 108 is the oldest team in Florida and this is their last chance to qualify for championship, they played effective defense in Orlando but will need to improve functionality to compete this week. 2797, 4592, 5472, and 5819 all were chosen by alliances to play defense to varying levels of success. With many scorers competing at the event the teams that have already played defense in eliminations will be hot commodities.
FIM District- East Kentwood
One of the biggest advantages of the district competition system in Michigan is that it has allowed for a new generation of teams to get a chance to grow and thrive where they might not have had the chance before. One of the biggest keys to growth is captaining alliances and playing deep into elimination rounds and the East Kentwood district has a group of teams that have greatly benefited from these experiences. Chief among them is team 2054, the Tech Vikes from Hopkins. Since their breakout year in 2011, they have grown to become one of the elite teams in the state and already picked up a silver medal this year, losing in the finals last weekend at the West Michigan District. The two favorites this weekend are coming off an extremely impressive district victory already this 3620, The Average Joes and 2767, Stryke Force. These two teams paired up to hammer the high goal in eliminations and put up some of the highest scores seen in the state of Michigan so far. Rounding out the top tier teams is 3357, Comets, who lead their alliance to an extremely hard fought victory at the Lansing District last weekend with their unique high goal shooter. Taking the field and looking for their first finals trips of the year, 2771, 858, 4967, 2474, **4819 **and **3234 **all have career medal counts they’re looking to add to. Perhaps more importantly will for these teams will be FiM standings points. Demons, while technically beneath the 102nd spot currently, are the only one of the bunch that should comfortably be able to reach the DCMP after earning the #3 seed and a semi-finals berth in St. Joes. Excel, Flat Mountain Mechanics and That One Team each have significant work ahead of them to make sure they’re on the right side of the bubble in week 7. Code Red and Red Arrows haven’t even taken the field in Michigan yet, but 2771 did reach the semi-finals in an out-of-state play.
MAR District- Westtown
Experience is a constant in the Mid-Atlantic. Virtually half the district has team numbers under 2000 and nearly 20% have rookie years in the 1990s. But it doesn’t stop at team age, as the district format has all but eliminated single plays. Nowhere will this be on better display than Westtown, with zero rookies* and all 37 teams having already competed in Stronghold at least once before. Moreover, this is one star studded roster. While there have been MAR district events with similar sets of competitors in the past, they have typically been early in the season as team work out their kinks. The Westtown school is hosting what is practically a MAR championship warm-up.
*The one registered rookie was a no show at their previous event, and does not seem to be competing in 2016
For a handful of notable teams, it will quite literally be a warm-up event for MAR championship, with two district plays already completed. 1218 captained the #4 alliance to victory in Hatboro, and then was an early selection and semi-finalist at their home event. 1391 captained alliances that clashed against Vulcan Robotics at both of those events, falling to them in the QF in Hatboro and besting them to reach the finals at Springside. 708 was Metal Moose’s first round selection at the latter event, and has what is at least on par with their 2009 entry as the most competitive machine in team history. Perhaps the most competitive of the third play group will be 1640. Sab-BOT-Age started slowly at Hatboro, but improved significantly during their finalist run at Seneca, and are now one of the best outer works shooters in MAR.
While a majority of MAR play has been dominated by breaching and low goal cycles, Westtown has enough shooters to break that trend. In addition to the Sab-BOT-Age and Vulcan, two of MAR’s most proven high goals scorers are coming in on the backs of week 3 victories. 225 is MAR’s most established batter shooter, but was more than willing to take 2 point goals in order to ensure a capture during the eliminations. 365 rarely needed to settle for less to capture gold in Seneca, as their out works shooting and quick tower scale made them an offensive dynaMOE. 2607 and 5404 haven’t punched through for a banner yet in 2016, but their armed shooters should put them in contention (particularly if they can avoid crippling defense). 341 lacks the ability to cycle under the low bar, but the displayed enough effectiveness as a batter shooter to be picked first overall at Hatboro back in week one, and their potential for scaling points gives them an additional edge over most of the other high goal teams. 4954 has shown significant late season improvement in past seasons, and could be a potential sleeper in the field if everyone comes together just right.
With the bevy of offensive scoring machines, qualification rankings will be a huge factor in determining how the playoffs shake out. Swift and consistent low goal scorers that can help ensure not only breaches but captures during qualifications have a chance to dramatically influence the rankings. Hatters Robotics (708) thrived in this role at SCH, and their scaling capability helps set them even further apart. 3974 and perhaps 1712 could also find themselves seeding high with the right schedule. How any low goal oriented alliances match up against more potent high goal scorers will be interesting to watch, but MAR has never been shy of putting on defensive pressure (including sometimes in qualification rounds).
Waterloo
From its humble roots more than a decade ago, Waterloo has grown into one of the most fascinating events in FRC. While its small size has remained a fixture of the event, the competitive level of the top end of the field has sky rocketed in recent years. While the quantity of elite competitors is great, the 30 team limit prevents the event from ever being considered deep and can lead to some quarterfinal blowouts for the alliance captains that cannot snag a powerhouse. When all is said and done, Championship waitlist teams are almost certain to be happy at the outcome of this event, as at least one wildcard spot is likely to end up going unused.
The near omnipresent narrative in Ontario this season continues to be if 2056 can complete a decade of FRC without losing a single regional. Waterloo 2016 will be among their toughest tests yet, despite an utterly dominant showing in Oshawa a few weeks ago. Fellow Texans 148 can vie to replace the Robonauts by OP Robotics’ side, and are carrying a 29-2 record after winning both Alamo and Dallas in convincing fashion. 1114 and 1241 pushed the finals at GTRE to 3 matches, and both aim on securing the #1 seed in a hope to control their elimination destiny. Theory Six is coming off a truly special performance in North Bay, with an 18-0 record, a well-deserved #1 seed, and Chairman’s Award. While the Simbots almost always improve as the season progresses, Theory Six may be the former world champion who has the best odds of going shot-for-shot with OP Robotics.
But the list of noteworthy contenders extends beyond the former world champions and undefeated phenom. 3683, 4039, and 5406 have all picked up regional victories already this season as either the #1 seed (Team Dave and Makeshift) or the first overall selection (Celt-X). After a decade-long drought, 610 has picked up at least one regional victory in each of the past four seasons, but is at risk of having that streak snapped if they cannot align with an elite scoring machine in Waterloo (despite having a robot capable of weakening the tower on their own). 1360 and 4678 have yet to take the field this season, but would likely be among the more notable teams at many other events this weekend. Orbit Robotics is the new offshoot of The Red Devils (1334), so it will be interesting to see how both teams perform this weekend. The CyberCavs have unique features that well serve as a compliment to many powerhouse launchers, but at an event this small it’s hard to picture them lasting into the second round if their breaching and autonomous skills can be reproduced on the real field.
Hawaii
Local Legends- 359, 368
Defending champs and 2016 Orlando alliance captains- 3880
Breached the winners circle in Australia- 3132
One of PNW’s best defense destroyers- 2522
Long layoff since San Diego in week 1- 2443, 3882
Hub City
Looking for Back to Back wins- 3310, 4063
Hoping to Avenge a Finals Loss- 4522
Hoping to Avenge a Narrow Finals Loss- 1987, 3481
Trying to Breach the Finals for the First Time Ever- 4959
Idaho
Californians trying once more to qualify for CMP- 399, 701, 3250, 5818
Hometown heroes- 2122
The game has changed since their 14-0 #1 seed victory in week 1- 4009
Las Vegas
Won 8/11 LVR (and finalists at other 3)- 987
Met in great SF match-up in Flagstaff- 842, 2486
CA event top 8 seeds- 3128, 3255, 4276, 4984
Accurate shooter, but issues getting into position- 3495
Montreal
Returning to dominance - 3990
Challengers attending their second regional - 296, 3158, 3360
Building off of last year’s breakout success - 3996
Splitting up- 1334
Orange County
Rookie snipers looking to work out drive kinks- 5817
SoCal powerhouses trying to live up to historical expectations- 2485, 3476
Drains shots all over the courtyard- 3309
Averaged 151 points/match during their finals run in Long Beach- 294
Queen City
Dominating performance in Walker Warren- 868
Swift high goal cycler looking to avoid shutdown defense- 120
Tall high goal scorer at their best when they don’t have to leave the courtyard- 4028
Looking to escape the QF for the first time this season- 48, 144, 1985, 2016, 3260
Have ranked 6th or higher at every regional attended (and 11th on Hopper)- 5413
Back-Up performance proved they should have been picked at Buckeye- 1014
Alliance captains and All-Stars in Pittsburgh- 5811
SBPLI Long Island
The reason you had a bearing shortage- 271
Looking to improve after Buckeye- 263, 870
Top pick in Manhattan- 1796
MecaTankanum’d their way to the Pittsburgh semis- 2053
Has courtyard sweeping Under Control- 1156
Smoky Mountains
16-0 sweeps in their first outings- 1986, 2481
Short launchers looking for more high goal accuracy- 1785, 3824
Captained the #2 alliance to the finals at Rock City- 3937
Veterans learning from QF exits- 1319, 1912
Western Canada
Countries represented- Five
Aussie powerhouses looking for more Boulder scores- 4613
Ontario contender looking for three straight finals in Calgary- 2013
Top selection for an alliance that hit 11 high goals twice in 6-0 playoff run- 4334
Crossing the border to defend their title- 2130
Qualified for CMP in their first two seasons- 5015
FIM District- Howell
Heating up the competition - 67
Twins who both have medals this year - 70, 494
Made the finals of their last three districts - 4384, 2834
Michigan legends looking for their first deep run this year - 51, 68
In the hunt - 4362, 894
FIM District- Lake Superior State University
Temperature of Lake Superior this week - 35° Fahrenheit
Already one district win, can they keep it up? - 4377, 2959
Looking for their first breakthrough to the finals this season - 3618
The experienced vets looking for their first gold medal - 503
In the hunt - 5712, 4779, 3535
FIM District- Troy
Years featuring a division champion - 6 (09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14)
Looking to continue their Killer season - 33
Consistent contenders looking for their first gold this season - 217, 1718
Need to add a consistent high goal shot to contend- 469, 2337
Aiming for an earlier selection- 862
In the hunt - 537, 3539, 910, 2851
MAR District - Bridgewater-Raritan
Breachers sure to seed high - 25, 193, 834, 1257
Climbing to the top - 869
Standout Rookie - 5895
Experienced Contenders - 1403, 1676
First Mid-Atlantic event after trips to Connecticut and Ohio - 3314
NC District- Campbell University/Johnston Community College
Event name- Too long
1st place in NC standings- 2655
Fourth district play- 4935
Battling for the best breaching- 435, 587, 2069, 3506, 4561, 4828
High goal threats- 5160
NE District- Boston Event
Collecting Standard Streamers- 125, 1058
Usual Suspects- 126, 3467
Prepared for Battle- 238, 1768, 1073
Dark Horse- 2084
NE District- Hartford Event
Trying to Catapult to a Second Victory- 177, 195
Breach, Breach, Breach- 173, 181, 839, 4055
Shooting from Up High- 176, 1124, 155
Sharpening the Sword, Polishing the Armor- 236, 558, 2168, 2067
Breaching, Climbing, and Capturing- 175
PNW District- Auburn
Xcalibear or Sir Bearington?- 2046
Looking for gold- 1425, 3574, 360, 4469
Fighting for a DCMP Bid- 948, 3393, 4131, 3588
PNW District- Clackamas Academy of Industrial Science
AKA- Oregon City
Clear Favorites- 2471, 1540
Looking for a second Blue Banner- 5450
Excellent driving- 3024, 4057
Fantastic Rookies with time to improve- 5975
